Willsy
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Posts posted by Willsy
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Has anyone been on null school? You can look at all sorts of live data on there. A handy one being the temp/850 you can clearly see a lot of heat being pumped up from North Africa all ready but unfortunately at the surface things are coming from the east which ain’t good!! As could really have an impact on ground temps.Anyway theres some plus 19 uppers and above just to our south advecting our way so let’s just be patient next week and not get hung up on each run. Things will get hot next week but how hot and how stormy is yet to be determined until we reach T3/T12 as these setups are really hard to predict
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Has anyone seen the secondary low forming off Freya. Looks a lot more potent and could be moving on a slightly sw/ne path which would In Term effect the whole south coast. If what’s showing ups true things could get rather bad. Have the models been predicting this secondary feature or has it just came out of no where?
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Was -6 here last night in Poole according to my thermometer!! Let’s hope the surface temps and dew points stay close to freezing through the day then we may be in for some action later when the front arrives
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Got a light covering of snow here in Poole. Looks to get better soon going by the radar let’s hope it doesn’t s turn to rain
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Had one random ic bolt once with a huge crack of thunder a few years ago at Poole harbour! Didn’t even rain
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Well that was an interesting drive home back to Poole. Never drove in rain like that before. The roads were rivers!
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16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Would like some thoughts on when we might see a more significant pattern change - given we've been in a lengthy protracted non-atlantic spell for 2 months solid now, with only temporary blips. Seems to be some feedback mechanisms at place. The current synoptics are highly abnormal, with heights just not going anywhere it seems, another week of anticylonic weather ahead, and no rain for many, then the azores high ridging north east.
Would like some seasonal forecasters to provide an explanation of why the jet seems so locked to our north and behaving in such a way at present.
This current spell is excellent, but if it continues for some time longer, it will begin to outstay its welcome - mother nature will recover, but persistant heat and no rain will takes its toll eventually.
I think it may be to do with the ssw back in February which smashed the pv to bits displaceing the jet stream making it very amplified and it’s still having a great effect on our weather
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Had some marble size hail sat evening from the 2nd batch of storms for my area in Poole. Never seen them that big before!!
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South West looks best again out of this front.looks like it’s being drawn into the flow of the low in the western channel where can’t it come back the other way!!!
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Theres some decent cloud heights coming out of nw France!! Let’s hope we get the ppn to match it ? I see the gfs and some other models are keen on round 2 so let’s see hope it pans out
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thick moderate snow here in poole
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This time 1.5 weeks ago I was in Australia enjoying the extreme heat and violent storms. Can’t believe I’ve been treated to this in the short time I’ve been back. What an array of weather! Never in my life have I been through some many extreme weather events in such a short space of time. Just need to see a twister and hurricane and I would have seen it all!! But large hail, extreme heat,scorching sun, massive 12ft waves,straight line 80mph winds, mcs’s, squall lines, Bowing echoes, frequent lightning, elevated storms, dry power turbulence,snow, blizzard like conditions, sub zero temperatures and freezing rain will definitely cut it for me for the next few years for my weather fix!!!
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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:
So its 0c and dew point -3 yet it's freezing rain?!?! Why is this?
Because the air temperature at the 850 levels are above zero. Apparently they need to be between 0 and 4 to be conductive of freezing rain that’s with a ground level temp of 0 or below
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20 minutes ago, snowysouth said:
Oh crikey! I've got to walk on that. Or try anyway.
Good luck!! Just out some ice skates on ?
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Can’t believe how bad this ice is surprised my powers still on. Must be nearly a good 20mm on top of all the snow
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This freezing rain is preserving our snow cover nicely. Want more snow though let’s hope our uppers get colder as they get mixed out and it turns back
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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Anyone see lightning just then? Sky lit up purple to my west.
I just saw that maybe it’s the power lines shorting out with all this freezing rain
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6 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:
I'm looking at the French radar and to my untrained eye, the snow storm is shunting well to the east over France. Is this possible ?
It does look like it’s might that way who knows though so volatile at the moment Currently the latest sat 24 image shows very heavy on moving our way eat of Biscay
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I really can’t wait to see how tomorrow’s event pans out down here in Poole!! The latest gfs update has upgraded for my area should get a nice covering fingers crossed
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Finally got some winteriness in the air let’s hope it keeps going all morning
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10 minutes ago, Bradowl said:
I guess this isn't good news for anyone wanting the cold to spread here? Someone on here might know more than me.
http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/extreme-warming-in-the-arctic-over-the-next-10-days/
This is good news I think as it means higher pressure over the poles which in turn could bring colder weather further south for us
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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:
Where’s that from? Most of those red lines aren’t even on the cards if your saying they are possible tracks? Not very helpful as this is quite a serious situation.
If you had read the post above it I said this I just for abit of fun. I forgot t put the pic in my post so quoted it there.
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11 minutes ago, Willsy said:
I have a funny feeling that this may tack further east than expected!!! Which could impact the uk more!! To my untrained eye the last few gfs runs have increased the stronger winds abit further east than the previous. the most recent radar loop shows it heading E slightly NE. let’s hope by tomorrow she’s in the bay of biscay ready to deal the contry a lethal Blow!! With the centre of the low skirting up the south coast. How funny would this be if it all happened at the last minute I think it’s quite plausible it could happen computers can’t always be right! The next 48 hours are going to be very interesting to say the least. If this euro high doesn’t block it like modelled then we may have some paths the same as this pic I did for fun
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I have a funny feeling that this may tack further east than expected!!! Which could impact the uk more!! To my untrained eye the last few gfs runs have increased the stronger winds abit further east than the previous. the most recent radar loop shows it heading E slightly NE. let’s hope by tomorrow she’s in the bay of biscay ready to deal the contry a lethal Blow!! With the centre of the low skirting up the south coast. How funny would this be if it all happened at the last minute I think it’s quite plausible it could happen computers can’t always be right! The next 48 hours are going to be very interesting to say the least. If this euro high doesn’t block it like modelled then we may have some paths the same as this pic I did for fun
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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
1.5 km