matty007

That is a huge increase.

Yes.

Truth be told, trying to calculate the mortality and spread of a virus is largely futile until you have very sizeable data and the pandemic is over. If the population of a country is 60 million and you are testing 10,000 a day, how do you know this is an accurate representation of the virus spread? If you are getting more critical cases than average and doing an average number of tests, then, of course, the mortality of that virus in that country will be very skewed. Also, if the population is 60 million and you do 10,000 tests, and many of them on that given day were negative, you are led to believe that the virus is slowing. This is largely not the case, you have just tested a very very small sample from a large demographic that may have MANY mild cases. There are so many variables.

Absolutely.

Thankfully, viruses like Ebola will never be able to spread this widely and quickly. For that, we must be thankful. In terms of aysmpotamic viruses, this is about the worst you would hope for. Covid 19 infecting say 10 million with a 1% CFR is much worse than Ebloa infecting 500 with a 66% CFR.

I think basically, it goes against people's natural response. They believe that shutting yourself away will make everything go away and they won't become infected. People have also been brainwashed into thinking that it is a deadly virus and they're all going to die. In many respects, the fear is worse than the virus itself. Nobody WANTS the virus, but it upon us. Locking everything will only greatly damage the country and delay the inevitable, which is herd immunity.

This is the million-dollar question. Basically, it's a head in the sand mentality. 'Oh, it won't happen again'. Disease X has long been anticipated, and this is it. As said earlier, the cost of more ventilators, masks (so important) and more medicine is but a slither of the money we spend annually on warfare. They always think we are impending war, but fail to see the real threat in their face...microbes. Unfortunately, quite a few elderly people will pay for this mistake with their lives when there are no ventilators, no masks. Many nurses to become infected too. .

This is so widely under the real figure that I have no more words.

I have watched it many times myself. That's awesome, GP's or a specialist field? What do they think of this situation? Love a bit of Winslet myself

Out of date, but rather sobering if you haevn't seen it.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU&t=175s

Here's hoping for a 2018 repeat

If the virus continues to double as it is, then yes, Late April-May will be the peak.

That's actually a very good point and one I hadn't thought of.

Contagion was eerly similar to this virus and an amazing movie if you have an interest in medicine and diseases.

True. I think most reports seem to hover around 2-2.4 but you can't get a completely accurate picture until all the cases have been tallied at the end. However, given the rate in which the documented cases are doubling, around 2-2.5 does seem probably thereabouts.

Thank you. You're most welcome.

It is very hard to know definitively if there is absolute asymptomatic spread because there are so many cases, and trying to decypher when they had contact, and if the person who subsequently got sick, got sick from the other person before they showed symptoms. It's like a needle in a haystack. I have seen a few studies that have shown that someone has been in contact with another when that other person showed no symptoms. That first person then had no contact after and still became sick. This suggests that asymptomatic spread does exist. The rate of transmission is largely comparable to influenza, in fact, even more so. Given its characteristics, and a large number of medical reports in the agreement of asymptomatic spread, it does make it very likely.

111 cases? Haha. You can probably multiply that by factor of 100, at least. There does seem to be a resonable argument that hotter climates do seem to have slower transmission, outside China of course. Whether this is down to the inaccuracy of figures, or that, we shall have to see.

Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China. - PubMed - NCBI WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV Sci China Life Sci. 2020 Mar 4. doi: 10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4. [Epub ahead of print] "Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia" Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19 | Global Health | JAMA | JAMA Network JAMANETWORK.COM This study describes possible transmission of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from an asymptomatic Wuhan resident to 5 family members in... A familial cluster of 5 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Anyang, China, had contact before their symptom onset with an asymptomatic family member who had traveled from the epidemic center of Wuhan. The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier.

It angers me greatly, also. It's good to see supermarkets limiting the amount people can buy, but it's still not enough. Should be a cap of 2, not 4 or 5. Stockpiling will do nothing but cause shortages, which will increase prices. All they're doing is prehibiting the elderly and less wealthy from buying essential items. We will never get to the extent where vital stores are closed, not with this virus, not even with a 1918 repeat. If this happened, the country would go to ruins. People have to work, and vital shops have to stay open. And they will. What worries me most is small buisnesses, and the self employed. When this really ramps up, I fear for their wellbeing.

This is a very good move. If you look at most of the cases in the US, they are largely happening in care homes etc. Given that the virus is most virelent in the elderly, we must contain them

Yes. However, what is largely overlooked is the funding into viruses as a whole. During SARS, there was a lot of money being provided for developing a SARS vaccine. Of course, once the virus lost grip, the interest wained and they stopped funding. Now, I won't say with 100% confidence that a SARS vaccine would be effective against this, however, there is a reasonably good chance that it would be. If not fully, then at least, partly. If we had this vaccine, it would have made a MASSIVE difference in how this will play out. What also can't be excused is the shameful lack of N95 respirators for nurses. This virus has barely got near its peak, and yet, we are already massively short on these N95 masks. These masks are absolutely vital in reducing spread to nurses, and of course, the general population. The use of N95 masks can reduce infection by over 80%, so they are absolutely as important as oxygen and antibiotics for secondary infection, maybe even more so. If nurses aren't supplied with them, then what happens when high numbers of these nurses are infected and unable to treat? Yes, the proverbial hits the fan. What's worse is not only do you have a massive strain on the economy from the virus itself but masks that usually cost peanuts in comparison, now cost infinitely more. There is a massive underfunding in viral research and preparation, and hopefully, this will change that. The approach has been largely comparable to a hospital buying an ambulance every time there's an emergency, rather than stocking them before to be ready. Vaccine development and buying masks are but a tiny fraction of money in comparison to national defense etc.

With all due respect, this outbreak has barely even started in the UK. Late April into May is when it will really hit us, and hits hard. Let me be totally honest and transparent when I say that our NHS is VERY unprepared and under equipped for this.

In my opinion, the CFR of Germany (0.25%), South Korea (1.2%) and Switzerland (0.9%) is probably around the actual accurate figure of this virus CFR. I would estimate the final CFR to be around 0.75%. Worse than Flu, yes, but not massively so. If you look at most of the countries affected, indeed, the mortality is rather low (under 1% in many). We have to remember that Italy's population has a much higher percentage of elderly citiziens than average.