matty007

Partially, but it mostly due to the very fact that the only cases that were documented were those that were severe enough to require hospitalization, and intensive care. CFR is always highest at the start of a outbreak due to to this. The first cases weren't documented until the end of January as Covid. We now know that the virus indeed started at the beginning of December. So, how many contracted it and were mild cases that nobody knew about? The CFR is still quite inflated due to so few being tested in comparsion to the actual cases. There are so many that have this, but are simply carrying on, or are at home.

Difficult to say as so many factors determine how quickly the virus spreads. To achieve herd immunity, we would need 70% or so of the population to be infected by it. That is roughly 46 million. The virus is doubling every 4-5 days, so let's say we have 20,000 in the UK with it now. Next week we would have 40,000, the following week, 80,000. In a month we would have 320,000. Another month, 4.8 million. A month after that.......72 million. Theriotcally, the entire population could be infected in just three months....yeah. Highly unlikely for a virus to maintain that sort of transmission for a solid three months, however. But if you use this formula, in principle, we would have herd immunity after about 2 and a half months. However, given that more drastic measures and social distancing would likely be adopted long before this point, it is almost impossible for it to spread this rapidly. As a realistic estimate, herd immunity should be easily achievable in six months.

I want to post some thoughts on Covid 19. I don't claim to be a infecious disease expert, but I do have a medical degree and have been following it very closely daily, and have read numerous doctors studies on it, at length. I think there is far too many inaccurate and fear mongering articles out there and people need real information. So here goes - Initial reports of the mortality rate were around 3%. This was due to the virus only being apparent in those that were serious enough to require hospitalization. This obviously severely skews the figures. Over time, and looking at other countries, it is highly likely that the mortality rate is around 1%, with a fairly good probability of it being even lower, at around 0.5%, with good hospital procedures and care. It is now inevitable that the virus will spread very widely. While it is not quite as contagious as some suggest, the R0 (reproductive number) of the virus, is around 2-2.2%. This suggests a doubling time of around 5-6 days. So if the UK currently has 1,000 cases, we can expect upwards of 2,000 later next week. That 2,000 will then become 4,000 after a further week, and so on and so on. We also have to bear in mind that the official figures are likely MUCH lower than the actual figures, due to only a small portion of those infected, actually being tested. A conservative estimate is that there are currently 10,000 cases in the UK, and likely more. The virus appears to be very mild in younger people, with a mortality rate of around 0.1% in those under 50 years old (largely comparable to the flu). Children also seem to be largely unaffected with very few being infected, and those that are, being very mild cases. Where the virus does seem to be more severe is in those over 60, and especially those with pre-existing health conditions such as heart issues, diabetes, and COPD. Of these cases, approximately 10% will require hospitalization, and 5% will be critical. People over 80 years old have a 15% probability of death. I think what this shows more than anything is that the majority of the population should not fear to contract this virus. The overwhelming percentage of these will have a mild illness and fully recover. What however is important, is to practice good hygiene, not to protect ourselves, but to try and ensure that we don't pass on the virus to those who are more at risk. Many people have ridiculed the government's thoughts on 'herd immunity' and branded it 'murder'. Actually, the government are correct. Aside from a vaccine, the only way to stop the spread of a virus is for the large percentage of a population to contract it. Once enough people have become infected, it will stop the virus's ability to spread. Whilst major lockdowns seem a good idea, there are vast economic and social damages due to this. How are people supposed to make money if they are self-employed? How will businesses stay afloat? If schools are closed, who will take care of the children when they are not at school? This will place a burden on the parents, physically, and financially. Also, in light of the evidence that this virus largely seems to not affect children, what will we actually gain by doing this? The genie is out the bottle so to speak. The phase where we are able to stop the virus through simple social distancing is long over. Some will self isolate yes, but there will always be a number who don't. If everyone goes into lockdown, we will see a reduction in cases, yes, but the virus will soon reappear once things go back to normal. If you could find every single case of COVID 19 in the UK and isolate every single one, yes, this would stop the virus dead. However, this is impossible now due to the wide community spread. We don't have vaccines either so we cannot eliminate the virus through that means either. This virus is not going anywhere and will likely infect millions in the UK before it fades out, or is vaccinated. But we have to remember that it is NOT a fatal virus in the overwhelming number of the population, and is highly recoverable. Panic buying will do nothing but raise fear and cause shortages. It will also cause an increase in prices of essential everyday products, placing those that actually really need them, and can't afford them, in great hardship. Lockdowns will do nothing but damage the economy, kill businesses, and still leave us exposed to the virus once we return to our normal lives. Square one. We have to accept the virus is here and many of us will be infected by it. The only thing we can do is ensure good hygiene to mitigate spread to the elderly, and to others. Over time, enough people will acquire immunity to the virus, and it will have no way to continue spreading.

There's nothing I hate more than wind, and by god we've had our fair share. I honestly can't remember the last day it wasn't ridicliously windy, and I also can't remember the last day where it didn't rain. I actually struggle to remember a time when I can recall so many trips home from work resulting in me being drenched, or totally windeswept. I haven't been keeping a tabs on records, but surely this has to be the windest month on record? And quite possibly the wettest too. It's preety much the worst combination of weather possible. I think I speak for many when I say that's it's getting very tedious now and has gone off for far too long.

Well, I suppose the lengthy period of dry weather we had (Since March-April 2018) had to be offset at some point (nature has a way of doing that). In fact, the more I look back at the last year and a bit, the more I realise how dry it was. Sure, we had short wet spells, but it was very dry on the whole. That seems a distant memory now. The last month and some change has been seemingly endlessly wet, grey, cool and dull. I work outside and it has been so depressing. In fact, I struggle to remember a more wet and depressing period of weather in my 27 years of life....perhaps 2007 would trump it. Still, it's so grim. Hopefully it changes soon.

This wet weather is getting beyond the joke now. Seems to rain every day to some extent. And mostly every weekend is a washout

14.8c Will take a penalty

I think my 17.2 is looking quite handsome

Well the streak of bad August's continue. It is now 16 in a row (arguably) and this maybe one of the most dire of the lot. Almost completely devoid of any real warmth or sunshine. I also seriously can't understand the comments of it being dry in East Anglia. I am in Haverhill, Suffolk, and it has been raining non stop for nearly 24 hours. Wednesday also rained for over 12 hours, and much of last week was very wet also. It has been very very wet, overcast and cool. It has also been very windy. Infact, I struggle to remember the last day without high wind. I honestly feel this maybe one of the worst August's since 2003, if not the worst.

17.2 please

Well today was as about as grim as it gets. Quite windy, constant rain and cloud. Only in England can you have approaching 40c two days ago and full sun, back down to this muck. I don't want to sound arrogant, but I find it really difficult to see what good anyone finds about this weather. It's just grim. Definite post heatwave blues for me. Hopefully it picks up soon.

Yes indeed. The feeling of emptiness and mediocrity after a heatwave is horrible. That's why i loved last year so much, it was pretty much a constant heatwave. Nothing as extreme as we just had, but very settled and long term warm/hot weather.

Yeah yeah, okay. I was wrong :). I honestly thought it was impossible at the current time. But I'm happy to be wrong

Correction. I said it was possible for Cambridge to have the hottest tempreture, but not break the all time record. Anyway, if the Botanic Gardens reading is correct from Cambridge, I was of course wrong. We can't be right all the time and I can accept when I am not right. Hopefully I was wrong as it was a record I wanted to see broken.

Umm, so we might have broke the record after all. How likely is this to be counted?

Very good chance of setting the highest minima tonight I think, warmest night I can remember certianly. Crazy to think that at 1am and 25c it's warmer than most summer days at 3pm. Amazing.

Despite me being understanding of others preferences, I don't think it's true to say that we couldn't 'deal' with it. It's simply the fact we are not 'used' to it. You see people unable to work and constantly complaining in this country if it gets over 30c, and yet people in the far east and many other places work in this everyday. It is as normal to them as 18c is to us. Do they have a special inbuilt heat tolerance? No, they are just accustomed to it. Funny story. I went into Boots today and overheard a worker there saying that they can't do the stock checks because the manager is not there as it's too hot. He even went on to say it's a national problem....quiet ridiculous if you ask me. It's not even an outdoor job. They are inside with air conditioning.That's a big problem in this country, if it gets a little hot, things grind to a halt. A friend of mine even had an important package undelievered today because the courier couldn't work in the heat. Despite them having A/C in their vans While I 100% understand that very high heat isn't for everyone, it really does make me chuckle when I hear Brits complaining that 25c is 'boiling' or too hot.

Fantastic, thanks for sharing. It missed me and went east, but hoping we get another chance.

Correct.

Quite a few new strikes happening in the north of France. Hopefully they develop although I have the sneaking feeling that they may drift too far east again. Maybe not over yet, will watch closely.

Well, I just went outside and checked my weather station. 28.3c at nearly midnight. Truly astonishing. Wouldn't be surprised if we record the highest nighttime minima ever tonight.

Probably the warmest night I can ever remember so far. Tropical to be honest.

One of the biggest clusters you could wish for, but most of it is clipping the east coast. How more unfortunate can you be

Good job it's a short event then. Back to usual drab fairly soon.

Indeed