KTtom

Well its bloomin cold, frost stays all day, then as dusk falls the cloud builds...and it rains! Uppers no where near cold enough for snow in the south.

From the evidence to hand, solid agreement for it to stay cold and dry for another week or so, best chance of anything more widespread regarding shower activity away from the north east around this time next week, before a powder puff change to less cold nextweekend.

Yes, second run its shown this and looks like ECM around day 10... lets hope we don't get a damp squib of a breakdown after the euphoria of the 'sliding' lows looking likely to miss us.

Inevitable is a bit strong, however, gfs does demonstrate nicely why I scratch my head as to why people are so insistant that we dont get the low encroaching from the south west. Personally, give me 5 cold days and a significant snow event over 14 cold dry days and a gradual warm up, just as the gfs shows anyday. P.S .. Raining here most of the night!

I know many will jump down my throat, but I for one would like to see the azores low push up little by day 10 once the cold is established, just seems over the last few winters the wintry spells have fizzzled out, will be nice to see some disruptive snowfall even it it does go milder in the south west there after.

True, reading it they havent ruled put a heatwave either if you go down that route,

Yes, maybe expectations a bit high with some people , just reading the mets forecast and they go along those lines even to the point of mentioning showers more likely of rain or sleet in the south with snow accumulations for Scottish mountains. I can't see amything in the models to draw me away from this forecast. Unfortunately some think they are wiser than the met with theories that they dont want to scare us

By looking at the gradient of the mean....Fairly simple i would have thought

Sweetspot for chances of snow appear to be Thursday to Sunday for most...no denying the direction of travel thereafter....

I would have thought the Met may have taken those into account ?!

It was fantastic entertainment tho

Agree, cant see settling snow for the southern half this side of day 10 with those uppers. Met also agree.

I loved the post.. 'Do you actually know what younare talking about!'

Some stunningly brilliant posts in the other thread tonight...unfortunately you have to be there live as they get deleted after 30 seconds...brutal !

Appologiess, should have said northern areas and hills further south.

To be fair, you were the one holding on to the 'if it will go wrong it will' and questioning the Atlantic 'dead' talk. I understand the one run etc, but Exeters forecast has downgraded snow for anywhere but northern hills now, models seem to be catching up slowly. That said, still looks a good startmfor winter but lying snow for the south may have to wait a few weeks yet.

100 % not! No idea where that chart is from, however Wales will win the world cup this year before this comes even close...and we're out!

ECM at just 96 hours has much better alignment of the trough sinking south from the Arctic compared with gfs, its also in line with UKMO, should be another cracking run from ECM

Afraid have to agree, massively over exagerated charts going by last year, that pixel over Scotland has no chance of verifying

To be fair, maybe by a few posters here with sensationalised interpretations of the models ( Boom and Marmalised should be banned!), but the actual output hasnt really changed. The mainstream have not showed any more than fleeting visits of sub -5 uppers. Blocking is still dominant in the output and a welcome relief for us westerners, whether this transcribes itself to something wintry from mid month isnt known but nothing in the models to suggest this will happen just as there is nothing to suggest a return to wet and windy. Final point, black hole anomolies are interesting to see over northern lattitudes but doesnt necessary mean anything for us.

Synoptically, ECM the best of the usual bunch this morning. We do seem to be getting some sort of pattern being agreed on ar last....initial slack easterly finally blocking off the Atlantic, pulse of heights to eastern Greenlant around day 6, low to the south west turning winds south of easterly. Temperatures nothing to write home about. Anything to raise an eyebrow still over 10 days away. Excellent, well written and accurate post from Mark above. Ecm day 6:

Now i'm getting concerned, the GEM is getting wheeled out...tomorrow I guess we get the first NOGAPS chart to enjoy

Agree, Mrs should be able to give the tumble dryer a break with those uppers incomming

Agree but look at ECM at day 6 below...chalk and cheese, those troughs are no where to be seen...totally agree with Mark, whilst this is a model thread, it can be misleading when people are talking about charts 300 hours away whilst finding the most favarouble version of gfs.....anyway, ecm very good so far for some settled dry conditions...

The goal post keep getting nudged further away...alot of talk about charts +300 odd hours away, no mention of UKMO which still has the UK unsettled at day 7, granted it HAS to get more settled and colder by day 10 from here.