KTtom

Hi all, I'm sure it must have been covered elsewhere but I can't find it? ... Is there any reason why I can't access Fax charts from the link? Its been like this for months now.

Well, after a day of snow, (although it didn't stick) I had pretty much resigned myself to the start of spring and was expecting to view tonights models to see a much more 'springlike' set up from next weekend, but, wow, it looks like we'll have a fair time to wait yet! Firstly there's a potential channel storm this weekend, probably not much snow but definately a possibility on the northern edge. ECM wants to raise pressure due north with an eastely feed and lows still trying to attack from the SW, GFS has a longer draw on the easterly although it looks more settled......looks like cold is still the way foreward....What a Winter :excl:

GFS is totally baffling at the moment. The difference at +102 is amazing compared to the 06z. The 06z had the low exiting the country on a west to east track just north of Norfolk, the 12z has it moving South to North and exiting NW Scotland! Pretty amazing lack of consistancy.

KW- I wasn't accusing you, I was suggesting the post was! as, unless I'm reading the 06z extremely wrong there are 3 possible fairly large snow events this week. Not all in the same area, but in general IMHO I think next week could well see more cummulative snow than in any week so far this year.

I'm afraid the above post is once again very misleading and is obviously a IMBY post. For Wales its the best run in terms of snow potential I think i've seen this year. With temps on the GFS predicted to be no higher than 2c from Monday to Wednesday there would be plenty of snow around, especially Tuesday. Yes, the temps rocket to 7c in the southeaster third, but we don't all live there.

Some nice porn to look at at the end of the run also :lol: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Not much changed since yesterday really. Still a chance of snow in Kent tomorrow. Beyond that the front moving south next week, snow on northern hills rain/sleet midlands south. Best chance of a decent snow event has to be via a trough moving up from the south later I would have thought, but no medel currently shows this.

Must admit I was getting a little concerned with the upper temps, there always seems to be the old warm sectors with lows that move south, strangely enough you seem to get better chances of widespread snow with lows moving north! Good old Derek on BBC Wales 'I know some of you are looking for more snow, I don't think there will be much this week, but next week could be entirely different'

Hopefully, as its quiet the mods will let me get away with this.. Totally agree with the above, I always wonder how you get 'up' for the weather here when it doesn't directly effect you? I have also heard today that there may be a problem with ski-ing in Europe due to too much snow?! ...and just to show i'm not a bottom kisser, I still think GFS is a far superior model to ECM :lol:

Cracking ensembles, the op even at the top end later in the run. oh' and congratulations for kicking NS bum...c'mon Nick, slow tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1441.gif If in doubt....bring out the NOGAPS

It seems every morning the models are picking up on a new trend. Yesterday the channel low evaporated and this morning the Scandi trough which was going to give the east a foot of snow has pretty much gone AWOL! Still solid agreement between the GFS and UKMO for a sustaind cold spell but both have the high sinking to sit on Brittain for a time before the GFS sends it back to Greenland and introduces the snow from the south, but thats at +192 ish. Wonder what tomorrows trend will be

Great chart on first glance, then suddenly you get a heavy heart and long to live in Greece! BTW, Has Greenland and Iceland linked up recently??

At last! We can sit back and take a breath beofe disecting the models in fine detail. Pretty much nailed on that the next 7-10 days won't be Atlantic dominated. There is still plenty of detail to iron out especially regarding the track of the Atlantic lows. I see that the channel low predicted by GFS and ECM for next Wednesday/Thursday has gone AWOL on the 00Z's. I'm sure the detail for next week will change, definately looking cold but those who have their meter ruler propped up against the front door ready, may be a little dissapointed away from the NE. Personally I'd prefer 3 days of cold, a big snow event followed by an early spring as opposed to 10 days of ice.

Pretty much agree with most that being said for next week and I really can't believe that the last 2 forecasts I have seen have mentioned only a brief milder spell before the cold returns next week. Why would they go that far out if they didn't have to? Talking of models Why don't N-W provide a link to UKMO charts or the extended ECM on Wetter?

Well, totally flip around from last weeks runs this morning. GFS, ECM both dreadfull at +144 with the trough to the west fat too strong for the high to move west. We're left in the middle of the battlegroung with SW;lies! Just goes to show the ECM is every bit as erratic as the GFS! Oddly enough, its the UKMO which is by far the best at +144, the trough is further west allowing pressure to build towards Greenland. Can the UKMO kick butt again, or does the law of averages mean its their turn to have a 'mare'. It does seem they take it in turns Edit: Good post Swilliam

Cheers Nick. Whilst even a numpty like me can understand the graph, can anyone explain how they are scored?

I thought someone had posted that the ECM had performed worse out of the 'big 4' over six consecutive days? There was a link, but I can't find it?

Worth a read of the BBC's monthly forecast......love the heading..."Briefly milder, then very, very cold!"

Amazing, just when we get used to the fact its going to be mild for the foreseeable, along comes the ECM! UKMO not bad at +144 also, but its the ECM which, after +144 wants to revert back to square 1........here we go again.....

Although the front introducing the milder air is further north. Pretty in much with the mid day forecast on BBC. I really think this week is nailed on now, any interest for snow (apart from Wednesdays transient event) has to be what happens after next weekend.

Bit like getting plastered down the pub on Saturday, waking up on sunday and saying 'I am never doing that again, 5 days later.... What the heck this has to do with model output i'll never know

I guess the difference here is that the Met were really sticking their necks out and widely going for the colder outlook, our local guy on BBC said on 2 back to back forecasts that the return to cold and snow looks odds on nextweekend, Ian F last night also said SE winds were the highest probability for days 6-10. Its rare the Met stick their necks out, and we hammer them for not doing so, but perhaps now we can see why? ...anyway, whats a winter without a major let down

Well a bit of an improvement from the 00Z by the GFS, Wednesday to Friday temps just above freezing over most of the country with fronts making painfully slow progrss NE'wards. It'll be interesting to see what Countryfile make of this. This mornings forecaster did hint at a week of mild/cold battle.

What is slightly ironic, is that its the trough which moved into Scandinavia to bring us the northerly which ultimately is providing the brick wall preventing the easterly progressing westwards.