KTtom

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png Hmmm, this warm up seems to be going the way of the pear Temps still around freezing come Friday.

Well my take on the latest GFS run is for a cloudy, cold week next week with snow flurries (granular) and even some freezing drizzle almost anywhere. There doesn't seem to be much difference between day and night temps.

To add to the above, yes slightly less-cold but the emphasis for the snow seems to be down to the south west, both ECM and Met as well as Nogaps hint at an Atlantic attack from the SW as early as Tuesday next week.

Well, im in Aberporth and its just constant snow shower after snow shower comming in off the sea....as soon as it clears its going to freeze solid and although looking at the models its then going to remain dry for the foreseeable here this covering won't be going anywhere ! Interesting that the Aberporth Met are going for 5 -8 cm overnight, this is not backed up by BBC???

ECM +216

Seems a little better out to 144 for both UKMO and ECM, one question though, what happened to the trough on the GFS 06z in the SE friday which was also mentioned as a possability on countryfile lunchtime....its gone

Very quiet in here.....for now I for one am awaiting the 'breakdown' as it looks to be the only chance of getting a decent fall away from the north and east...gonna be fed up of those words by the end of the week! I know it'll turn milder after a breakdown but it looks as though its my only chance for snow....can't believe with this set up they are talking rain in the south Tuesday...maybr IB was onto something!

Yet another great output this morning, the ECM is an absolutely stunning in the longer term as heights build to the north again with a block from Scandi to Iceland. Fax charts also look great medium term with prospects of more widespread snow on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Just had heavier snowfall than last Febs event, amazing, goes to show even in showers if you are in the right location anything is possible

I guess you're right there, it would be great for once to have a nailed on snow event without having to jump into the car and head up the nearest hill This is a great chart, as you say the air behind is bitter and I wouldn't have thought there would be too much rain in that front as it moves south.

Looking at the fax's it does look promising for some snow, what is slightly worrying is that the met are still talking about the prospect of a mixture of rain/sleet and snow showers. If we can't get 100% snow in this set up we are in trouble! The real cold air always seems to be around 3 days away, temps for tomorrow look to be around 4c for most...not far of average. I'm not moaning before I get shot down, just stating the facts.

Certainly a cold week comming up, but It does look as though 90% of the country will be dry with just the far north of Scotland and eastern counties looking like getting any snow showers. GFS and GEM let the GH topple over us with GEM bringing in SW'lies in FI without the widespread snow most are looking for. The latest Fax looks good although the weekend low looks to miss to the south it actually acts as a spoiler in stopping the northerly make it through the country which would be a far better scinerio for westerners. North easterlies will certainly be cold but ppn looks to be extremely limited.

Glad its not just me who has a bitter taste in their mouth today. I'm not going down the 'even larger teapot' road, but with the current sypnotics you would expect a little more than 10 hrs heavy rain! Despite my location I'm certainly not alone. As you say, ECM sypnotically looks great but until you look out you're window don't take anything for granted.

Nothing but rain here, however looking at the Met forecasts on BBC it does look as though its early afternoon before the snow really develops.

Just to add to that excellant post above , ECM is going with the Fax's, I think i'll go with them and the man from the TV against the GFS! All models do look better mid to long term compared to yesterday.

Well, the Fax's don't take the front further north than the M4, GFS and UK much further north, one consolation is BBC seem to be going with the Fax's and have snow covering Wales/Central England for nearly 48 hrs! Long term the GFS is much better with no breakdown though the entire run.

As others have already mentioned some huge differences between the big 2 this morning. ECM tries its best to give us a blast from the east while the GFS looks odd to say the least, for some reason it has it in for the south west with a trough which seems determined to stay put and bury these areas under feet of snow! All getting a little messey in the shorter term, the models are great for mid term pattern trending but for the immediate future I think i'll stick to the BBC, which this morning says 'turning much colder next week, as fronts try to move up from the south there could be some very heavy snow for parts of England and Wales'. I think thats all the detail we will get today.

Mery xmas from the GFS if you like blizzards and 10 days of sub-zero temperatures....must be that missing data

Confusion is the word. At just T120 (xmas day) we have the UKMO with an easterly and ECM with a westerly, GFS somewhere inbetween. Interesting GFS has pressure re-building to the NE and any breakdown now pushed out to new year.

Yep, a cracking ECM to counteract a wowfull GFS in the longerterm. ECK ends up with a reload with heights re-forming over Greenland and a snowy spell for the UK.

Woken up to a light covering and its still snowing. The latest forecasts actually look more promising for the far west for snow showers Sunday/Monday. Sat night looking wrong side of marginal in the west though.

Doesn't warm up much either

Having trawled thru the models, looks like I've got a fair wait before I see so much as a flake! Met even give me rain for tomorrow night!! Think I may be fairly lonely on this thread come Sunday

Quiet in here? Excellent GFS this morning plenty of ppn over the weekend as bands of snow move west to east as the low slides down the western side of the country. Fax @120 hrs and UKMO is poor though in the extended timeline as the low is further west and starts to introduce southerlies by Monday, as others have said the surface cold is still there but in terms of breakdown the worst scinerio as it would be a gradual warm up. In the meantime a very wintry weekend in store for all.

The latest Mets advisory illustrates exactly waht I was saying about the chances of southern Wales in a NW'erly...it needs more of a northerly element to it to drive the showers down the Irish Sea or north to south through the country.