KTtom

Well, if I lived in Sweeden I might agree with you, but the chart below clearly shows the front having pushed right through the country with SW winds everywhere! Thats at +168, anything after is fantasy. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

You have to laugh, or cry, at the models sometimes! Just as the GFS produces an almost identical medium term run to the 12z ECM with a battle royal with a block to the NE and weather systems trying to push up from the SW, the 00Z ECM totally ditches the idea and blows the block away! UKMO is even worse, in fact is miles away from cold at +120 and +144. There is a massive scatter on the GFS ensembles for London, but overall no where near as promising as they were.

Well, GFS at +156 is almost identical to the UKMO with a resounding NO to the potent easterly

Rather a worrying sign emerging overnight for those hoping for the easterly. The Azores high fails to ridge north to link with the Siberian high on both the GFS and UKMO runs. ECM out to +144 and seems to be going along the same lines. GFS still manages to find the cold at +240 (again) due to a deep scandi trough, but the UKMO is horrendous at +144. GFS op is out of kilt with its ensembles and pretty much on its own. I can see this running for a few days yet before the eventual outcome is agreed. Much better ECM at +168 with hte sort of sypnotics that nearly brought the forum down the other day

Everything a little further NW on this run so far, expect a decent upgrade on the initial northerly.

London Ensembles look to be the most interesting chart this morning. The mean remains below -5 for almost the entire run with virtually every run colder than average.

Lol, well there is an argument for that LS! The other thing that comes to mind, certainly with the 'easterly' and a classic example with the latestDe Bilt Ensembles output, which shows temps for the beginning of nest week -5 to -10c, that they are pretty pointless unless you live in Holland, which i'm guessing is the whole idea of them and pretty pointless here?

Having just seen the ECM, it has, as previously posted totally changed its output to its longer term outlook in line with the GFS. The GFS, maybe a slight upgrade to the 24hr northerly seens to be the hot favourite. Again, I'm not sure why some constantly slate the GFS. UKMO was awful yesterday and ECM the same today....just as the GFS has abysmal outputs. Shame we only have access to one model, life would be much easier!

Well, time will tell with the 'northerly'. It just seems strange that there haven't been more ensemble support for the type of northerly ECM shows! Also, very strange evelution between 120 and 144 by the UKMO to me???

I'd be very surprised if the ECM sticks to its guns tonight. The last 3 runs have been very consistent up to +168 hrs. Not sure why the likes of Nick S. raves so much for the ECM, its been all over the place lately.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png A touch of frost comming up for eastern Europe

Pretty good agreement in the models this morning up to around +120. The initial northerly is sent into mainland europe, we have to wait for a secondary front to move south from southern Greenland before the northerlies start to take hold. UKMO shows this feature @+144, GFS gives a half hearted northerly but the GFS is a corker as the scandi trough moves SW and the high manages to cling on to Southern Greenland.........as usual it will probably end up being a half way house No easterly in sight now, so at least we can rule seaguls out as a forecasting tool.

Fairly good agreement for some sort of cold snap into next week with an easterly. The main question at the moment appears to be how far north the high to the north east can get before low pressure drives over the top and sends it sinking into central europe allowing a more traditional Winter look to the charts , this scinario has agreement with both ECM and GFS mid-term.

Those easterlies are sourced from northern Africa mate, don't think they will be quite as cold as last weeks

Well, the updated BBC Monthly forecast also hints at the prospect of a returning easterly in a couple of weeks. Time will tell as always

Do they say what the high probability option is then

There is a window of opportunity after nextweekend for the high to move westwards as the Atlantic lows take a short break, unfortunately the forementioned trough sits to the west of Norway preventing it doing so.....different run mid term as the high sinks to mid-europe.

Indeed, but he also thought the second half of January would bring the coldest spell of the winter, his recent silence is deafening...no-ones infallable

Looks like the second half of January will be dominated by wet, windy and mild weather. We have a bit of a stand off between Atlantic lows and Scandi/Siberian high before the high finally gets beaten into submission. There on it looks to be back to a traditional winter pattern with strong PV to the north and high pressure to the south. Hopefully we'll be looking to the north in Feb for our next cold shot when the jet dies down a little.

Very dissapointing outputs today if you were still hoping for an easterly. GFS shows the Atlantic trying to push through the UK, which, may not be a bad thing in the longer term as it will increase the chances of what has been a very rare northerly. The GFS also backs the Mets thoughts (BBC monthly) which indicates the high slowly sinking towards southern europe.

This certainly is the way the models are heading, and firmly away from the idea of a repeat of the last week. Just looking at the ensembles shows the vast majority moving away from a renewed cold event around 20/21st. No point congratulating those who predict easterlies, or anything else for that matter until it actually happens.

Some photo's from last nights dusting All are on my normal route to work.

Pretty much spot on! Once again it looks as though the Met have been guilty of over ramping these events so to cover their backs. They really are performing poorly lately....the NOGAPS of forecasting

I'd be inclined to dissagree with the above as looking through all models I think the trend is definately for the Atlantic to win out mid to long term. Even the weekends low is widely predicted to cross the whole country. High pressure tries to re-establish itself around +162 but the Atlantic storms just look too strong. In the short term todays 'event' looks to have been blown out of all proportion by the met yesterday, the ppn now looks like its delayed around 6hrs, lighter with the snow confined to hills.

Reading through some of the regional threads it looks like the thaw is well and truly on as temps have already risen a couple of degrees above freezing! The fax for Wednesday (link below) shows much milder westerlies for the south western quater although no doubt there will be snow on the eastern flank of the front. Still, with all the snow in some areas I guess a gradual thaw over the next few days is better than a suddern warm up. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif