Gaz1985
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Posts posted by Gaz1985
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124mm has fallen here so far for January, which is actually about average here on the western side of the Pennines. This part of NE Manchester is just about in the white part so 100-125mm is the average.
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Yes it hasn't been very mild over the past few weeks - yes there has been a lack of frosts but we've had mostly single digit max temps which does feel chilly especially when its' been breezy or windy. The last few days the windchill hasn't been much above freezing and the last couple of mornings it has been below freezing. Hardly balmy.
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As far as I'm concerned, the UK doesn't even experience proper winters - snow cover is far too infrequent and not even guaranteed every winter in a lot of places. A proper winter, in my opinion, would feature snow on the ground for more than a few weeks each winter - not necessarily all winter, but a big part of it. New York doesn't qualify as a proper winter climate in my opinion, since winters are unreliable - they can deliver giant falls, but even then, they are not guaranteed to last long.
Cities like Stockholm, Helsinki, Warsaw and Kiev qualify as proper winter climates in my opinion and everywhere in the UK falls considerably short.
Yep I would class Chicago and especially Minneapolis as proper Winter climates too, New York City's Winters are generally a tad milder.
Yeah, the Strat temperature and the jetstream is what I based my evaluation off of and since I live in Failsworth (East Manchester) I can see snowfall more often than Manchester City Centre, but it is still quite low down. There is still time for it, but it better show it's hand pretty quickly.
Yes when we get snow cover on this side of Manchester we can get quite a lot as seen in recent years.....but it's the getting it in the first place which seems to be the difficult thing this Winter, for all the UK.
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i never mentioned any person in particular. I really like reading the thoughts of a fair few on here who i deem to be 'expert' in their explanation of possible outcomes and reading the model output, but this forum is also overloaded with 'copy and paste' merchants who believe everything they read on the internet.Can i do better? Nope, that's why i dont bother. I leave it to the Pros. Unless i have a 'hunch'.
Yes plenty of "know it alls" on here who know very little and try to bully others when they can't get their own way, this Winter has made a fool out of all of us yet there's still some people who think they've been right all the time even if the opposite is smacking them in the face.
And for this reason I only take notice of about 4 posters in the model output thread - the likes of Tamara and John Holmes. I'm certainly not a professional at meteorology nor would I regard myself as excellent at forecasting - I have some wisdom on it but other people have a more in depth knowledge who have been doing it for 50+ years. Then there's others who dislike you just because you like mild weather. Very strange people, it's only the weather. This could be a great forum but there's a sizeable number who let it down.
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Well it looks like I'm right on the border of the rain/snow, could be very borderline by first thing tomorrow. Elevation could be a key player.
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Snow beginning to stick on the M62 summit grass (about 400m) so very high up.
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Yep looking like the Irish sea machine is starting to fire up, dew point here is now low enough for snow.
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This Winter is shaping out to be worse for settling snow than Winter 11-12. In that Winter we had a covering one morning in middle of December and then a heavier fall on the 4th February and that was it all Winter.
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You're not wrong.. I gave up posting in the model thread for this reason, and also because my one liners where being mistaken for wind ups. Still If you watch the models alot, you get a hint of when models are right and models are wrong.. All to often the best way to resolve whether a model is right or wrong, is to use your instinct.. overanalysis will results in analyses that aren't always correct.
I'm surprised there is any discussion left in there at all - the mods seem to find new excuses of what is "acceptable" and what isn't. I know many who have stopped posting in there. Once I got a warning PM purely because "I posted a mild chart and most people are looking for cold and it was cherry picked"
Yet these mods (no offence) talk about recognising peoples different weather tastes and respecting them.......so with me being me I had a right go at the moderator lol.
Then you have the drama queens who seem to need anti-depressants through no snow "Winter is over!" .......
Overall it's a decent forum but a lot of people on here spoil it.
Anyway tonight I reckon some in our region will see a covering but it won't last long even at height. As the colder uppers get mixed out again before sunrise.
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Should be a covering of snow tonight above 150-200m for most of the North West. Probably some wet snow below that. We shall see anyway.
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Since when do the likes of DC & co give a crud about Somerset?What will it do for their ever important a CVs...gets in the way of too much grandstanding around the world, selfies and the likes.It takes a major supermarket and local muscle to react - it also costs money. The same money which has in some cases been squandered on aid for folk thousands of miles away, not those suffering in the UK.
Indeed, I cannot believe we still give money to booming nations like Brazil, India, China. We could of spent that money on flood defences. Somethings not right in that regard and we're not getting the full picture by those idiots in 10 Downing St. Some powerful people overseas are being kept happy with handouts.
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There's a few reasons we hear more about more flooding.
1. More homes built on flood plains/river valleys (this has to stop)
2. The rise of the Internet and 24 hours news channels - word of mouth spreads quicker than ever about a place that has been flooded. Years ago if a town was flooded we never knew about it. But now we do.
3. Councils not clearing out drains and sewers like they used to.
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Yep VERY cold indeed again across the USA on Tuesday, what a Winter they are having. As far south as Atlanta close to -10c, Chicago -27c with a -40c windchill, probably even colder for Minneapolis.
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I think what we're seeing is the models inability to judge how a block to the east effects us and judging how unusually cold the Atlantic air masses are there could be few surprises over the next week or so, whilst the uppers are not the lowest we've seen they are certainly cold enough for snow for most of us - and we're getting attacked from both sides. Copious amounts of moisture = heavy snow. For coldies the seas/oceans surrounding us can sometimes be good for generating snow.
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Snow accumulation up to 10cm for the Pennines and Welsh mountains over the course of around 12-18 hours ending Monday, even more over highland Scotland and possibly the Lakes.
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A high chance of snow for this area later tomorrow, 80% chance if it manages to stick but it will have to be heavy on wet surfaces, and then an increasing chance again as we get to the new month.
Wet tomorrow lunchtime, some snow for Scottish mountains
As mentioned rain turns to snow here, but it will have to be heavy to stick to soaking wet surfaces.
By Monday morning it's back to heavy rain here, still some snow elsewhere. Overall very mixed with the chance of everything thrown in!
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GFS snowfall accumulation, and probably one of the least snowiest models today I would imagine! wonder what JMA would of showed in this regard?
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Still a good trend But I do hate it when the forum gets too confident; it’s like a Groundhog Day script. you know how it goes, it’s usually tears at the end. UKMO does look good but I've never trusted its 144hr output, however, on saying that I've also always thought that the ECMs reputation for blocking projections was over blown.
Indeed. I'm going to give until Tuesday because let's face it charts a week away probably won't verify as shown. It may all end in tears and more toys thrown. Or not.
I think a few more days then we can say the cold is definitely coming, but the one positive thing for coldies is the Met Office seem much more bullish now than at any time this Winter.
And that is a snowy chart - February could well dawn very white for most of us away from SW areas.
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That was January 7th, Gaz. I remember it well, it happened in Woodford just a few miles from me. The temperature was still about -12C at midday and only rose to about -8C despite it being a very clear, bright day. I even remember being slightly disappointed that the next night "only" managed -17C!It was probably the best little wintry spell I've experienced here.
Granada reports about the snowfall a couple days before those very low temps.
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I think without question most inland valley's across Britain (most especially England and Scotland) can record sub -20c in Winter and early Spring.
Newport in Shropshire recorded England's coldest ever temp at -26.1c so not much different than Scotland's record in Altnaharra and Braemar of -27.2c, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere in England has got down to -30c like it has rumoured in Scotland too.
Even here not a million miles from Manchester city centre I got near to -18c in January 2010 with a foot of snow on the ground and clear skies one morning.
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Not fair, snow on a neighbours car? But none on ours or anyone elses...must have snowed up the road somewhere lol
That's the thing as little as 30 metres (about 100 feet) higher in elevation or if an area is under a heavier band and those can make all the difference. A similar thing happened here last Winter, places in lower parts of Manchester hardly had any snow at all but we had a few measurable events here.
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Heavy wet snow here in Droylsden. Quite big flakes.
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So yet another winter storm brewing in the nw Atlantic with our name on it for Sunday into Monday, although not coinciding with spring tides like the storms of a few weeks ago it will still produce a lot of unwanted rain for money, thermal gradients behind the initial front seem very marked dropping from +5 to -5 850s in a very short space of time could cause very heavy rain followed by a spell of sleet and snow in heavier bursts almost anywhere settling above 300 metres then Monday into Tuesday? Anyone's guess.
I reckon for the Pennines and Scotland maybe as low as 200m. These areas in the firing line. And with dew points lowering followed by evaporative cooling some may get down to 100-150m. Still it is a fickle thing snowfall and almost a nowcast situation at times!
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Quite a big temperature difference on Friday, very mild across Ireland and the far west with 12c approaching SW Ireland, but much cooler further east and north you are.
Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gaz1985
It only really gets to central and Eastern Ukraine/Belarus though not even Poland.
It's colder right now across Eastern and Northern Europe than will probably be the case by 7th Feb. Currently sub zero across the Eastern bloc and has been for over a week.
Tomorrow
Milder by 7th Feb, still things can change but as of now not really significant nor unusual.