Gaz1985
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Posts posted by Gaz1985
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Is there anything, anything at all for coldies to look out for? Serious question.. Clock ticking..
Well there was a frost this morning
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ZZZZZZZ!!!!
Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!
You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.
Might be that HAARP weather control.
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GFS 12z ends with high pressure nudging in from the south west
850's, cold out east
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Currently -41c in New York Central Park with "heavy blowing snow" but 3 miles away +27c in The Bronx and "clear sky"....... t shirt bbq weather, wow North America sure has it's extremes.
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Ahh some cold air plunging into eastern europe, that`s better.
Looks similar to the JMA, overall the JMA is devoid of any substantial cold for the UK in it's 12z run.
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Looking forward to Spring now, let's face it - it will soon come around...get into mid January and it seems to be Easter in no time. If it has to be mild I would like some drying out - cannot remember the last fully dry 48 hours. Been miserable now for what seems an eternity.
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Chilly uppers but no where near as cold as what was showing yesterday - so still a downgrade with the deep cold. But like I said yesterday I will sit on fence until Sunday. I think our fate will be known by then, lots of twists and turns in this saga to come I think.
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Anyway Manchester 12z ens look milder than the 6z
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Yes it certainly hasn't been a very mild Winter, temps have been consistent as above poster says with not much variations. Just average temperatures for the UK in Winter time (mainly mid to high single figure max's). Things can get even milder if we get a Bartlett but that's looking unlikely to happen. And no doubt about it, it has been a wet Winter so far too.
Notably some global forecasting models were predicting a wet Winter for the UK with hardly any snow - think one of them was the Chinese model.
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Looks like I was right last night to be cautious about the "beasterly" whilst others were typically OTT........ still having said that things may suddenly flip back but for coldies alarm bells might be ringing after Ian F said this will be only a bog standard cold spell nothing unusual for Jan. And then a suggestion of a more mobile outlook probably into Feb, who knows we may go all Winter without a flake settling here, not even a sugar dusting. I don't recall a time when that's happened before.
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After "that ECM" in Dec 2012 I think I'm going to take the model output of projected cold with a large pinch of salt until at least Sunday, as we all know things can come crashing down with a big bump.
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Cold ens emerging from Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, with some very cold runs in the mix.
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Cold slightly further east again, I think it's still a case of "more runs needed" from ECM.
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Cold getting nudged back east a bit, slightly milder uppers over UK
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Not very cold uppers at 168, am I missing as to where the blizzards will be. Apart from Northern hills...
Looks like blizzards for Scotland esp highlands, only rain south of Newcastle. 850's too high across most of England and Wales.
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Hopefully tomorrow will stay dry for a few hours
, another day with rain here.-
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Any good news on the ecm??am too nervous too look at it!!
It's showing a Bartlett Pressure developing
Nah it's only up to 96 hrs atm.
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Today was officially one of the coldest days on record in Chicago (at noon time)
And here is a quote from the US national weather service, note temps are in Fahrenheit *f* and not Celsius *c*, convert them into Celsius and you have our standard.
.. Monday's record low Max was not set but noon temperatures
were amongst the coldest on record...
A technicality prevented Monday from possibly tying or breaking
the coldest daily high temperature ever in Chicago. The midnight
temperature... while bitterly cold and also setting a daily record
for Chicago... will be the daily high Monday and was not at or
below the all-time daily cold high temperature record of -11.
Nonetheless... Monday will go down as one of the coldest days on
record. Here is a ranking of the coldest noon temperatures on
record dating back to the 1929-30 Winters in Chicago and Rockford.
Chicago
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temp date
1) -21 Jan 10 1982
2) -17 Jan 20 1985
3) -16 Dec 24 1985
4) -15 Feb 9 1933
-15 Jan 22 1936
-15 Jan 16 1982
7) -14 Jan 18 1994
*-14 Jan 6 2014*
9) -13 Jan 16 1977
10) -10 Jan 18 1940
-10 Jan 28 1977
-10 Jan 9 1982 -
Cold creeping in from the east on JMA
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Chicago windchill -41c!
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Compare 850's shall we?
ECM @ 144hrs (138 hrs now)
GFS @138 hrs - both quite similar just a couple of subtle differences
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Depends on what you class as cold wintry weather - if you discount one brief northerly outburst on Christmas day 2004 which only really affected NW parts, then the last 'reverse' winter was 2004/2005, no sustained cold weather until the latter part of February which lasted through until March.
WInter 82/83 another one which saw the coldest wintriest conditions reserved for February after an average December with only a little bit of cold snowy weather and a very mild January. Winter 94/95 was very similar in style to 04/05 with one cold northerly just after Christmas but we had to wait until late Feb for any proper cold snowy weather.
Indeed and February 1986 was another late Winter bitter month - easterly winds throughout that month. As you may know February 1986's CET was colder than December 2010.
, another day with rain here.
Netweather Winter Forecast 2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Indeed, late February 2005 had some heavy snowfalls, I remember here having consecutive days of falling and settling snow from an easterly. Another snowy episode was early March 2006.