Gaz1985
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Posts posted by Gaz1985
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A few more candidates for the ignor button me thinks,can't believe people are liking comments from ian f talking about heavy rain and the potential for more flooding,really what's to like about that?
They might just value his valuable input?
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This Winter reminding me very much of January 2006 and bizarrely almost exactly to the day - all that cold to our east and we just missed out on it. It never got further west than Germany.
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Yes, it's interesting re Spring, especially given the latest GloSea5 update published today with the milder-or-average anomalies continuing through Feb-March-April (and for that matter positive anomalies into Summer, as CFS has also called for). Anyway, that's doubtless a discussion best suited for the seasonal thread I'd imagine (although GloSea5 is a model, nonethless!).
Thanks for the updates today fergie, it's made my day much better
Manchester ens looks very wet at times though urggghhh!
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Hard frost grass crisp cars frozen -4c clear stars bright.....
-4c? you sure? no where in England got that low last night on the official Met stations.
Your high up too which in actual fact means slightly higher temps at night, lower areas are colder on clear nights. But you get more snow purely because of "orographic lifting" and higher ground has lower dew points. A lower dew point help snow to fall rather than rain.
I would also imagine Glossop town centre is colder than where you live as it sits in the valley bottom and likely a frost hollow due to the hills that surround it. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm
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Up to 50% chance of snow for near this area. Overall a chilly set of ensembles.
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The Manchester ens paint a mixed picture - 850's looks uncertain past Friday so it could go either way, but there does seem do be a lot of rain spikes yet again, we do need a period of drying out now, it's soggy and muddy on grassy areas and not to forget those who have been flooded out - that in itself will take a while to clear even the sewerage smell out of homes.
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As could you for the warmth you desire
Do you even remember the 90's lad? lolI have enjoyed most of this Winter apart from the rain - I also enjoyed the warmth of the early mid 2000's, must of been so difficult for you
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I don't really care to be honest whether there is no snow this winter/spring. I look for cool/cold weather, colder the better. If i doesn't happen this winter then i look to the next one....there will be great winters ahead.
You might be in for a very long wait - a bit like the 90's
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What makes me laugh is the quote from the BBC "Cold, snowy Winters could become the norm in Europe"............well duh they ARE the norm for more than half of Europe, it's only west and south of Hanover where it's milder. (excluding the Alps)
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I think the SE had short-lived -18 uppers in 1987 if I recall correctly. You're right, the US are having an epic time of it at the moment
FI looking stacked full of potential tonight. This at 240.
Again, the volatility in the charts currently show big changes are afoot!
Yes you are about right, coldest uppers was probably around Kent. -18 or -19
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Is a mini ice age on the way? Scientists warn the Sun has 'gone to sleep' and say it could cause temperatures to plunge
- 2013 was due to be year of the 'solar maximum'
- Researchers say solar activity is at a fraction of what they expect
- Conditions 'very similar' a time in 1645 when a mini ice age hit
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From the BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806
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Looking cool and zonal on the Manchester ens, but to be honest no deep cold showing or anything very unusual.
I won't come off the fence on anything other than zonal until the Met Office come on board with an update like we've seen in previous years >>>"There are signs of the weather turning colder and drier later in the period with temperatures below average if not well below average and the increasing chance of snow across northern and eastern areas but not exclusively so"
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March 2012 was good, but if it meant going through another summer 2012, I think I'll pass!
Yeah that was a good spell with 3 days of 20c, I remember walking outside with a tshirt/shorts on, no leaves on the trees and the birds chirping like mad as if it was late Spring, insects hatching. It was a bizarre but welcome early warm spell. A complete contrast to the year later! just shows how different March can be.
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April 16th 2003 I believe Manchester hit 25c! .....highest April temp here ever? less than 12 weeks from now.... if only it happened again.
I'm more a fan of April and May than March, considering March can still be very cold even right to the end (last year proved that). Also even in a very mild March the sun doesn't have that effect of getting a tan like it can in April and especially May, so it's rather pointless when sitting outside in it. The UV is still not strong enough. You have to be about Madrid southwards to get a tan in March.
Also if you have a mild calm sunny day in March then it's still likely to be cold/frosty at night - a reminder that Winter has only just departed. This risk minimises as we go further into the year.
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After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.
I'm sitting on the fence like last time, gonna give it another 5 days or so. Probably sensible given the last saga!
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Certainly been very dry across the "Golden state" http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24904396/california-drought-whats-causing-it
Even right up to Seattle -a city notorious for wet Winters like the UK has been notably dry too.
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Shocker so far from the 18z GFS! Are we really heading towards a virtually snow less Winter?
As long as I can remember I have never known a snowless Winter here, we've always had at least a dusting and even if it only lasted a day........... I guess there's a first for everything including a snowless one! But still I think there will be snow in Feb even if it's at the end.
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Summer!! Parties, BBQs, beach, cycling, holidays, warm evenings, cricket.
Don't forget scantily clad girls!
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Actually one of my favourite times of year is now - obviously not because of cold weather but because it's now getting lighter each day - I know we are creeping further and further towards Spring and Summer
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As I have said many a time before the problem I have with that argument is "what balances what out?"You say it could be payback to the cold snowy March but how do you know March 2013 was no payback for March 2012 and that Spring 2013 was payback for Spring 2011?If that was case then there would be no payback now as the "debt" has been settled or is it?How do we know next winter won't be payback for this winter?This is the problem.
Yes I don't think mother nature knows what day it is or what weather has been thrown at it previously! the weather will do what it wants regardless.
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Might as well play along with the run for a while longer. The t192 chart is a beaut pity that
a chart such as that can only offer us 850's of -4cto -5c in the third week of January.
Dew points off the continent are lower so uppers are not as much an issue if you want snow from the east. It can snow with -4 uppers off a continental feed.
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Bloody hell, I lived in Manchester 07 - 10 with a short gap in 08 but my mate lived in the city centre between 95 and now and says he hardly had anything until jan 10, anyway id better not post anymore as the wrong thread for this discussion!
And I'm only 4 and 1/2 miles (as the crow flies) from the city centre as well - I think they get that urban heat effect thing over there, many a time I've been down there and it's just been a damp floor with nothing - as though it had probably snowed but it didn't stick, then got back home here to snowy slushy streets. We can on occasions do well for snow here in the Tameside area of Manchester, not sure why. Apologies mods. No more posts from me on this topic.
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What did you get in feb 05 as a matter of interest?, I was over the desperation snow loving thing I had as a kid (only rediscovered it in feb 09) by then generally as I was working but I remember really hoping on this occasion to get pasted as I was on a rubbish shift 2-10pm across with a cross city 13 mile journey in Birmingham and had a severe flu and remembered having a massive overdose of ibuprofen to get through it and wanted to get the shift called off so hoping buses and trains wouldn't run, it all turned into much ado about nothing though with a slight covering, had the tues wed and thurs but got begged to go in on the Friday and did, remember a covering on the Monday tues (dusting) and an inch (Thursday), from the initial easterly.
We had a few minor coverings (few cm) on about 5-6 days, but we had a bigger fall on between the 23rd and 24th - that gave us about 15cm, back then that was probably the most snow since at least the late December 2000 snowfall/freeze. It was quite a surprising day that in February 2005 because I remember looking at the Manchester airport conditions and it changed to rain there but stayed as snow here and gave all that snow, not much height difference either.
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Who nicked the cold - he dunnit and his country!
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Do you even remember the 90's lad? lol
Spring 2014 Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
21st till 30th May 2012 was fantastic too, It was very warm but comfortable nights. I'll remember that for a long while.