Mike Poole

I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that around the time I started model watching, the UKMO used to drop resolution pretty drastically after T72. I’m sure it doesn’t do that now, but that may be where the distrust of the later charts stems from? Anyone know conclusively?

GEM very good too T96, it has been quite similar to GFS in recent days:

GFS looking good out to T84, a little further south with the cold air: No sign of UKMO!

Good model output from this morning’s runs to back up the swing to cold from yesterday’s 12z suite. Two things strike me, first is that still a lot of uncertainty remains, you kind of see the envelope of possibilities still shifting between different ensemble suite, so the actual uncertainty is still rather nebulous. Secondly, a worry is the poorer (for cold) runs churned out by the ECM, including this mornings 0z. I know there was quite a debate earlier about whether the ECM or GFS had a better take on things. I know the GFS has been (surprisingly, perhaps) more consistent, but could it just be consistently wrong? I am siding with the GFS for now. GFS has a bias towards blowing up Atlantic lows - but by offering up the more slidier solutions, it is actually going against that bias, which, to me, suggests it has latched on to something. Let’s see as the 12z suite is imminent!

You were bigging it up massively a day or two ago! No point looking at the ensembles in this situation. They don’t have the resolution to resolve the issues at T72-T96. No straw purchases required.

Yes, not the first run that has shown this either. But again, no massive heights, actually looks like a number of super wedges moving around at high latitudes. Which will make forecasting a continuing nightmare. And model watching a continuing fascination…

Way into FI by now, but just look at the vortex!! T204: Looks like a dog’s toy, it is that chewed up.

Well, it is all looking very cold and snowy by T180, obviously earlier uncertainties notwithstanding, but it is a good run:

Gets posted rarely, but probably the most mesmerising chart available on Meteociel. From a purely aesthetic point of view. I agree though, with what I think you are saying, that the model has it too far north. As, probably do the others. Remember, just this morning, it was all over and the fat lady was on stage! Got at least 24 hours to go before we nail this one, I think.

Pub run T96, and it actually looks better shaped to slide now: I think the issue is that the sliding low from the west and the cold air from the east seem to reach the UK give or take at the same time, so small margins mean massive differences.

It is icosahedral.

Yep, uppers way to warm T114:

Well, that was exhilarating! UKMO correcting back to a colder solution, GFS improving, decent from the GEM, and ECM the slowest to backtrack. Long way to go on this yet. Clusters T120-T168: Cluster 1 would be the best (op is in 3). 16 in it. 2 & 3 look rather poor, 4 looks a bit off the wall at this time range, but only has 4 members. I think that it would be foolish to bet against the trend being for the models to gradually realise they have underestimated the strength of the block over the next day. Which means we are very much in the game, some more so than others based on location for the Christmas Day/Boxing Day timescale, but beyond that looks promising too. Big improvement this afternoon.

Good at T96, which is all we can really expect on the 12z suite, I think. T120 is in FI! Edit - but it is good then too!

UKMO ditches the single low, 2 lows in the Atlantic to T96:

Think I would see it as a step forward if we can eliminate this morning’s UKMO solution of there being just one Atlantic low at T96: ICON still has 2 lows at same time T84: We’d at least get to fight another day. Difficult to compare on UKMO out next, because that point will be between frames on the 12z.

They don’t know. We don’t know. Keeps the game alive for a while longer. But I think, beyond the Christmas Day thing, a cold outlook is likely whatever, so chill, and watch it unfold!

Must check in with things stratospheric sometime soon, because I haven’t really followed it this year, the strat trop disconnect has meant I haven’t really had to. And that continues, but I do start to wonder where this signal GFS 18z T384, is coming from? And maybe I should delve into the strat charts a bit deeper now…

As dangerous a call as your binning last nights 12z GFS run, I would think! All is still to play for.

Well the person that I think I you are referring to has accurately predicted 12 of the last 4 cold spells!

Knife edge indeed, T114 v 12z: 18z showing signs of disruption. Has it really come as close as this?!

GFS T96 v 12z: A significant but insufficient improvement, I would say.

Am I the only one who took this post as ironic?

Still a lot of promise, there.

Wavy north to south. As opposed to zonal, direct west to east - which for the UK brings the prevailing westerlies from the Atlantic. This has been largely absent, apart from for very brief periods, for about 1 year now. Some appear worried that this might suddenly change on Christmas Day of all days! The NH pattern has been unusual this year, right through the summer months too.