Mike Poole

As dangerous a call as your binning last nights 12z GFS run, I would think! All is still to play for.

Well the person that I think I you are referring to has accurately predicted 12 of the last 4 cold spells!

Knife edge indeed, T114 v 12z: 18z showing signs of disruption. Has it really come as close as this?!

GFS T96 v 12z: A significant but insufficient improvement, I would say.

Am I the only one who took this post as ironic?

Still a lot of promise, there.

Wavy north to south. As opposed to zonal, direct west to east - which for the UK brings the prevailing westerlies from the Atlantic. This has been largely absent, apart from for very brief periods, for about 1 year now. Some appear worried that this might suddenly change on Christmas Day of all days! The NH pattern has been unusual this year, right through the summer months too.

We’ll see - I think the mods changing this thread to slow paced rather than short range might help. I’m not that phased by the 12z runs so far - I think they show that the envelope of uncertainty is enormous, even at fairly early times, even T72-T96. At that range you’d back the UKMO over the others for this neck of the woods for sure. I think the uncertainty might be due to the weakness of the block, which in turn is ‘perhaps’ related to the NH being primed for a meridional jet for ages now. And if the ops are struggling at short range, then with their lower resolution, the ensembles are no help either. On to the ECM.

The problem is that this never works. I wish it did. But at the end of the day there is just one conversation about the hunt for snow, and whichever threads are available it will find the one it finds and that will become the go to thread for many posters. I totally understand the reason for this thread, but if the likes of yourself - and you’ve been pretty much on the ball with this one - only post here, then others will follow.

That must be a plotting error, surely. Sratobserve have GFS zonal wind at about 27 m/s.

So, the models have spoken this afternoon and this evening. Where’s your money, folks? Now that the phasing of the Norwegian low with the Atlantic low has thankfully been consigned to the back seat of possibilities, the possibilities look much better going forward. I’ve not even looked at the clusters tonight, the main scenario give or take now looks like delivering, and then some. Let’s just chase it down to T0, but first to T96!

Just WOW!! At that!! I know it is only one GFS run but is symptomatic of the whole northern hemisphere pattern. Trop rules the roost, and looks about to set the cat about the pigeons. Go cats…

GFS 18z shows an interesting pattern in the stratosphere, possible wave 2 attack (someone will correct me if that’s not right): Whoever it is, he is obviously is right handed given by the trajectory of the ejaculate. Good night folks, back tomorrow!

I think if some of the scenarios we are considering, it would be a week or so hence that they would take effect. From the models, a real cold hit could only take place from the 23rd onward at the outside, maybe later?

Mother of god!! What the hell is going on here then: Pub run T276: We’ve seen it on other runs too, so don’t discount it, a total trop vortex ripper with no driver from the strat. Amazing!

Hey with GFS 18z you wonder if we’ve been talking about the right thing, blocks and that, what’s really the new thing, it is actually a super wedge, they are different from blocks because they are TRIANGULAR: T234: Something new we haven’t seen since I started watching - remember no SSW involved in this - anything, literally anything could happen….

Holy moly! Looks like we’re in for a big one!!! Pub run T186: Snow, anyone??

Cracking run! T168: Although for my location you do have to factor 2 things in on trust, 1 it is the GFS, and 2 these things always correct south. Otherwise, fanning myself with an unread copy of the Times…

Trace the kink in all the isobars.

This one is going to slide T114, you can see the weather front here:

Pub run T96 v 12z T102; High a bit more constrained, not so much north, not sure about the shortwave. Hey ho, early days!

ICON 18z much better for cold than 12z, here T120: Got to keep that gap between the encroaching Atlantic system and the vortex segment over Scandi. Much better heights over Greenland too help with that here too…on to the pub run

ECM T240: How that ends I don’t know because Ive never seen such a pattern before! Any which way, we are heading nose front into a maelstrom of chaos in the northern hemisphere. The strat vortex is spinning merrily away, we know that, but down here it couldn’t be more disconnected, frankly. And while that’s happening, in the trop, weather systems and blocks are setting up in unusual places. Right in the heart of winter. If this doesn’t go for the coldies, nothing will and we might as well give up! But it will go for us

Just, please, no one mention the Scottish Model! (All right I mean the JMA). Great strides forward today both on the morning runs and now on the 12z, tonight. Another 36 hours to confirm a snow hit for either Christmas Day or Boxing Day and then we can look the the shorter range models for snow potential. All great, but we need to be seeing it to tomorrow as well as today, one final push, folks…. Edit, I’d inherited someone else’s charts there for a moment, deleted now, I deny all knowledge!

ECM T168, and now we really are through the looking glass with evolutions, might just be best to check the 850s with this one: BOOM!!