Mike Poole

Trouble is, I can’t think of any significant cold spell (and obviously there haven’t been many!) it has got right? Maybe it is better in summer, but no one cares about the weather in summer in 4 weeks time because that REALLY is unpredictable. No, it has to perform in winter, and, for me, it just hasn’t. You only have to compare the snowy downlands (sic) predicted this year and also a few years ago (I think 2018/19) against what GloSea5 or GloSea6 as I think it now is, were saying. It’s tripe, for the UK anyway, as are most long range models, to be fair.

No, but don’t tell @bluearmy I said so!

ECM clusters, well no point looking until T192, as I think we know we are in a wavy pattern from the west, allowing northerly topplers, but the last two charts are interesting: T192-T240: 29 go for the Atlantic ridge blocking, the rest (22) are about as +NAO dross as you would not wish to see. This would look rather odd on a mean chart at T240, if anyone was thinking of posting one. Clear dichotomy here. T264+ Here the Atlantic onslaught cluster 1 has 27, against the potential to build a Scandi high with 24 members. All to play for!

January is becoming a little clearer to me now, let’s start up top with the strat: No real sign from any model that strat vortex up above is relenting or having much pressure put upon it - and a SSW in February is far to late to rescue winter anyway. That said, the NAM plots continue to show a disconnect between the strat and the trop, here, based on today’s GFS 0z: While the strat’s away the mouse will play. By the way the big -AO signal at lower levels on this chart is unfortunately due to the Arctic high, not anything spectacular in our vicinity, see e.g. ECM T240: But the lack of strat forcing allows the meridional pattern we have had for the past year to persist even in the depths of winter, which is why we are seeing these brief Atlantic ridges, topplers for sure, but they do seem to have the potential to force lower heights into Southern Europe (see ECM chart). A little patience and one of these ridges might have a bit more bite or stickability. Not yet, but we will see…

Well, here is the T240, please draw your own conclusions: Not saying this is anything more than the earlier toppler, but if life gives you topplers, you make topplerade.

Hasn’t even finished yet, for crying out loud! The next chance will be at T240, two frames to go.

ECM T120, looks good with the northerly: I think we are back in the game now - with proviso that nothing long lasting is likely in the medium term, but short term, I think cold and snow are possible.

I have to say, I’d take the JMA at T132: With these brief northerlies, and I think we might see a few more over the next couple of weeks, it is all about timing the cold air with any little feature in the flow, and this run does this quite nicely for parts of the midlands.

Good cold plunge on UKMO T144, T850s:

Pretty potent brief northerly on the UKMO at T144:

I certainly don’t agree with it - I would agree with the statement ‘virtually everything leads to a mild winter’ these days. Let’s see if we can get some colder air south with this northerly on the models in the semi-reliable, and see where we go from there.

What an interesting question? I'm not sure I can remember it coming it up in my time, they always have coupled or there has been a SSW that has uncoupled them. Maybe worth asking in the strat thread because we are in unusual times, I think.

No it doesn’t, and if there was going to be a SSW, I would want a clear sight of it in the extended GEFS at least right now. I don’t think a SSW will rescue winter, it will be too late, it could still either produce a 2018 style BFTE or equally just ruin Spring. Having said that there could still be plenty of interest from developments in the trop, as on the GFS 18z, because we still do not have coupling between the trop and strat, quite the reverse if you look at the AM index on Stratobserve (GFS 0z): They couldn’t be more disconnected, so despite my concerns earlier, it seems we can play the displaced trop vortex card for a little bit longer, it’s not over folks, there are some more dice to roll, and mixing metaphors there’s still every possibility that something might come up trumps.

I think the true value of the pub run to the discussions tonight is that the models are at least accepting of the the possibility of a cross polar ridge which would work well in our favour at T174: The vortex still seems to be in 2 pieces, if they could become less joined at the hip, that would be great!

Yes Ali, T138 looking interesting on this one!

To be honest, we need our luck to turn back now, we had a genuine chance of wintry weather before a strat trop vortex coupling, and for whatever reason it failed. There have been many quoted, MJO phase diagrams not showing the detail, AAM not doing what those who know want it needs to do, solar flares, in abundance apparently, a still birth of the Easter Bunny, the QBO being taken out of action by Zoltar (Battle of the Planets), no less: Hey ho, you kind of get used to it

Right now, with the climate situation as it is, a whole lot of things can be a big concern for the winter: Britain existing east of a warm Atlantic Ocean. Any new teleconnection arising out of the blue like the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019. EQBO will either fail to produce the goods or fail completely. Wherever we are in the MJO or AAM phase space, a reason will be found why the UK will favour mild. The strat is our only hope, but a SSW 2 of every 3 years, and only 70% of those likely to deliver, it isn’t good odds, except it may be the only game in town. And it is most likely to deliver in March if it happens. Has to perfect though, for the south, 2018 was, 2013 was a few hours slush. If persistent meridional jet over 1 year from last year’s SSW hasn’t delivered, that is a worry because that doesn’t often happen. All the seasonal models bar the Japanese and Chinese going for mild (happens every year now). The October fog index . But no, I’ve never heard of a theory that a warm September is a thing to worry about, in that regards. Mike

It is pretty thin gruel at the moment for coldies, the best I can pick out of the 12z is a region of a new hope at about T144-T180, here a selection: GEM and JMA the best oriented. But it is all FI until a proper new pattern is identified. The problem is that too much is known about the teleconnections for this to be still a lottery with winter weather in the term of the next fortnight or more. @Catacol post earlier summed it up. You know, I would actually rather not know this now, as it parks a decent hobby for at least a couple of weeks, it is now becoming that sound. The seasonal forecasts are not set in stone, but it is now difficult to see how a SSW will rescue this winter (I personally was in anyway a bit sceptical about a SSW at the start, favouring a strat trop disconnect - that happened - but didn’t deliver). And, oh yes, welcome back @DCee with your complicated mathematical explanations of the GEFS ensembles. Just one question, as your profile states you like heavy snow, why were you so silent when that was showing on every other run a couple of weeks ago? Maybe you felt the rest of us had it covered ?

For balance, it is worth pointing out that they were as wrong as any other tool for the last cold chase though.

All the very best, Michael. I remember you as a child when there were only a handful of BBC weather presenters, who presented after the main news. I was fascinated then by what you would tell us that weather was going to do, and remain fascinated about the weather to this day.

I said I would be gone by now, but this last week model watching, it’s like with a really boozy night out that ends up wrong! There’s that post mortem session the following day when you piece together the nightmare as it unfolded….and then you blame the EC 46. It was wrong horribly wrong, the op runs can be forgiven but this one had winter on a plate, now a wet plate is being blown at winter amid rain run amok. (By the way I haven’t actually looked at the latest EC 46, I can’t, I don’t have access to it). It is just how I feel. And this really is the last one before Christmas on here!!

Yes, it is tripe! Always thought so, but heavily promoted by some when the sun is in their star. Which it isn’t now!

It is actually a very good documentary, I’ve seen it before. Just makes you wonder when we wish for a snowy spell…1/100 year events do happen, and my view is that they still can…

ECM T120, needs no comment really: My last one on here for a while, please have a really good Christmas everyone, and take care, there’s a bug going round apparently. And I wish you all a freezing cold new year Mike

Reckon there’ll be 200+ posts by then. But you don’t have to read them all.