Mike Poole

ICON 12z smelling the coffee, finally! T51 v 6z T57: I think that confirms the storm, it is now a question of where gets hit hardest.

Think 10m above surface level.

I think someone gave a good answer to this earlier, the charts many of us post for wind gusts are at 10m height - Meteociel certainly is, the gusts at the surface would be less, so need to be sure we are comparing like with like.

Meanwhile, the GFS 18z has this at T63: I feel I’ve been rudely awakened from a bad dream this week only to wake up in model hell, where no run makes any sense! How can GFS and ICON disagree so massively at just T63? GFS much more likely to be closer, but this run is too far surely…

That’s something I never thought I’d see, a ‘black hole’ on the Meteociel wind gusts chart - even less did I expect to see it within the UK landmass! - Just!

GFS taking the more intense track T60 T66: Just highlights the uncertainty still at this range - a million miles from ICON!

No, I don’t think so, as I said in the storm thread, ICON looks to me to be consistently missing the detail of the development of this storm which is why it has been south of the other models and now so far so that there is no storm. This is a very complex situation, and the main high res global models, not the ICON or the ensembles for that matter, are the ones to follow, in my opinion. We will see…

ICON 18z T120,

Well that was the next logical step on the ICON southerly track, if it is to maintain that difference compared with the other models, wouldn’t you think?

So a quick check on wind gusts at T72 for most models, first for GFS, UKMO, ARPEGE: Colours not the same on all of these, and adding in GEM and ICON: And ECM, but this is mean winds, not gusts: So to try to pick the bones out of that, the UKMO and GEM look really nasty, GFS too. ECM seems to take the system further south, so less intense, and ICON does too, well it has done on all runs practically. I, personally, would bin the ICON as it isn’t a good enough global model, and by that ticket would bin all the ensembles of all models here due to their lower resolution - remember some still show no storm. The envelope of uncertainty is defined by the main higher res op runs - it has shifted south since yesterdays 12z, yes, but it is still packing some real punch on those models - whether that downgrades or not is very uncertain and will be the focus of much interest over the next 48 hours.

Thanks, have corrected my post to avoid confusion.

I wonder if the fact that the yellow warning area for storm Dudley has been brought further south this morning gives an indication that storm Eunice may be more likely to correct south than north from where currently modelled as we get closer to T0?

Here’s the UKMO 0z T72 though to T102: Highest gusts to T102: Seems more southerly track on the models this morning, in general, as others have said. Interesting to see if the UKMO firm up their warning today, I think probably not, they will refine it tomorrow, there is still far too much uncertainty for now,

Yes, it is too early to get a real feel for how this is going to pan out, and the breadth of outcomes you describe are reflected in the ensembles and the ECM clusters as far as I can see, and that does include the ‘no storm’ option. So, something of interest for sure this storm Eunice, but we are some runs away from being able to make a reasonable forecast…let’s see how it pans out in the next couple of days’ model runs…

Which model are you basing that on, @damianslaw?

I personally think that those calling classic zonal train tripe weather (I meant ‘type’ but I’ll let the typo stand!) are premature with this setup. Compare the GFS and ECM at T240: Yes, that is what the GFS shows, but the ECM at the same time is very different with the MLB still very much in evidence. Yes, there’s a difference north south to be expected, but I think the Azores extension may put up more of a fight. None of which suggests any real cold, I hasten to add!

I wouldn’t bet against it would you?

I can’t see a dramatic implode without a SSW and there just doesn’t seem to be that kind of pressure on the strat vortex to cause one even now. It is funny, we were very keen on the apparent disconnect between the strat and the trop in December, but unfortunately I think this cuts both ways, the precursors to a SSW are trop patterns too, and they have never got a foothold on the strat vortex all winter. And won’t now either, in my view. My prediction, is that a warm spring with ridging from the Azores will have taken hold for our locale long before the strat vortex just peters out in the final warming above, and winter will be gone without ever happening this year.

And while we are talking about new model output, Copernicus C3S seasonal model output from all the main providers is now on Meteociel, so giving a taste of summer, here’s the Z500 anomalies for June from the January runs: All looking good in the hood at this stage (I think it might be a hot one - more nearer the time!).

Yes, we have a lot more charts from UKMO and ECM across the various chart providers in recent weeks. So thanks are due to those weather centres for providing the data. It strikes me that should ever a proper cold spell loom on the horizon, we will have so much more at our disposal to discuss what the two best models make of it. UKMO has T168 but also 12 hr time intervals are so helpful especially when comparing 0z and 12z runs. ECM 3hr is even better, who on here has not made a fool of themselves at some point as the ECM 12z rolls out trying to guess the next chart 24 hrs away? ECM ensembles in the detail we have already for GFS. Great. All we need now is some decent winter weather to bring these charts to bear on, sadly might be next year now. Finally, now having been following the models for a number of years, I do find people get quite territorial about which chart provider they prefer! As you will know from my posts, I am a staunch Meteociel fan - I just like the format and the use of the full range of loud colours! And how extensive the range of models and charts is. But, to @Nick F point above, I would always argue that in winter, people would be advised to use the NH view and not the Europe one.

I for one don’t think so. I don’t buy the argument this year that high lat blocking cold scenarios will abound once we’re past the end of February. This can happen, and it is quite frustrating when it does, but on those years when it does, a late winter SSW is often the cause, too late to give a decent end to winter, so it just ruins spring. There is no sign for any SSW, so the strat vortex will just run down naturally towards the final warming, so won’t upset the applecart - an applecart that as far as the trop regime is concerned is absolutely not dominated by low pressure systems rolling off the Atlantic - there continues to be little off the Atlantic driving our weather for well over a year now, reason unknown, but just expecting that to change without any good reason for a driver for change is likely to prove a wrong assumption in my view. My prediction is for a benign spring leading to a hot early summer. ECM, meanwhile, is suggesting highish pressure remaining T216 but looks a messy picture.

Yes, agree re the seasonal models, some people have said they got it right because we got no cold. No. They got it wrong and we happened to get no cold anyway. No sign of this huge UK high on any of them that I remember looking at before December.

ECM T192, and this is the end for me: There was a bit of a chance of a resurgence of possibilities, even if only from the NW, which would have benefited northern parts not the south, but even that is gone now. I’m sorry to say this, but you can’t really argue with it if you are like me an avid follower of winter NWP charts, that for southern England, a proper snow event is now probably a 1 in 3 year event at the very best, better for the north of course. And this year, despite exiting solar minimum, EQBO, nothing nasty stirring in the Indian Ocean, has been a total dud. I’m sure I’ll be back with enthusiasm in November, but it will be tempered, and probably wholly focussed on the chances of a SSW next year. That we came nowhere near one this year, is telling. When was the last really decent snowy spell that covered much of the country NOT due to a SSW (Dec 2010 is the answer). Meanwhile, see some of you summer fans in due course, as the indicators for that season start to take shape in spring… All the best, Mike

GFS 6z has a decent northerly plunge at T216, reflecting the improved prospects that were shown on the ECM clusters this morning.

Some interest from the clusters for the ECM op evolution, with cluster 1 looking very promising (compared to anything we’ve seen recently) in the T192-T240 range. I think this afternoon’s runs might generate a bit of interest!