Mike Poole

ECM clusters T72-T96 favour the cleaner cold evolution: About 3 to 2 in favour.

Yes, an interesting ECM run tonight, and why not? Spring is a season of blowing warm and cold, and it is a cold run, just comparing ECM with UKMO and GFS at T96: Consistent, the Arctic high. Inconsistent, the behaviour south of Greenland, highlighted on GFS chart. We need a proper ridge here for any cold surge, and at this time of year it is asking for something, pretty much has to be from NE direct, like ECM. I think the GFS is probably not right with this feature, but even if that is so, this would have to be precision to come off like ECM. I’ve not posted here for a while, sorry! Other distractions have taken my eye off the weather - which, incidentally, has been glorious here for the last 3 days!

Not sure why you see this as game set and match to you @sheikhy?????? You’ve vacillated as much as any of the models in recent days!!!!!!!!!!!!

ECM clusters T120-T168: The question is by T168, can the block force the Atlantic low to break up and go under? Clusters 2 and 4 say may be. But this is still too far out to call by at least 2 days, so we watch and wait… And the T192-T240 charts show a higher percentage holding and developing the block, clusters 1 and 2: Still all to play for in march, which seems the most likely month for wintry weather in the UK these days…

ICON 12z at T180, well that would do!

Wowsers! That’s still in the mix folks!

GFS pub run delivers: T168: There are so many variables here, and this is just one solution amongst many others which are rubbish, but having said that, on the other side of the argument; we might see a cold possibly snowy spell yet! These things tend to correct towards a stronger hold on Scandi heights, so we look for upgrades tomorrow.

ICON 18z T120 looks…..,implausible?

Well, drawing a conclusion from the op runs might not be too sensible on this occasion, the ECM clusters show increased support in my view for some kind of cold and possibly snowy (for some) period in a week or so. ECM clusters T120-T168: Cluster 2 with 13 members is the one we’d want but there is potential with some of the others too.

As always, I enjoy your pessimism, Froze! It has been an utterly abominable winter, let’s not sugar coat it. And with many ‘background signals’ in our favour. Roll on the next one, but it would be hard for anyone even from Netweather to make a convincing confident long range prediction of a cold winter after this year. I do hope for a decent summer this year, though!

ECM T168, wouldn’t take much for that to slide under: Still a week away, and sometimes these blocks tend to be stronger than they look…so more runs needed.

Nah! 0z are always rubbish, could portend well for tomorrow’s 12z suite?

Pub run delivering again at T186: All model runs are variations on a theme really, and it will be a while yet before we can see which one is correct. The snowy easterly is still in the mix, for sure. That’s all we can say right now.

12z runs not really getting the orientation of the high to our NE right to deliver like yesterdays pub run and one or two others did. Still outside the reliable so worth watching. ECM clusters, well there are 6 T72-T96! All scandi block, but where is the high pressure setting up? T120-T168, 4 clusters: Cluster 2 is where yesterday’s pub run would fit, so is of interest, and quite well supported, cluster 3 looks an intersting synoptic too.

Snowfest incoming on the pub run T186:

ECM yesterday’s 12z run, T192: Zonal mean zonal wind 10.3 m/s at lowest so it is a way off a technical SSW with a reversal. Does look like a split. GFS and GEFS mini maps at T192: Again nowhere near a reversal, but I did find one! GEM ensemble member 15 at T228: That aside this disturbance in the stratosphere looks to quickly peter out.

Hey! I don’t do twitter, Anthony! The data I see says no SSW. It is more a question of how the very fast spinning strat vortex this year comes to a stop! If it just runs gradually out of steam, then I predict - and have predicted - a warm and sunny spring into early summer. If on the other hand a late SSW happens, then that is more like sticking a spanner into a fast spinning wheel, but I just don’t see this to be honest this year, but it could lead to an easterly setup if it happened, and of course ruin early summer.

There is NOT a SSW happening! GFS and GEFS predictions: Yes, a reduction in zonal winds and some variability about it, but you’d expect a reduction at this time of year anyway, particularly from such a high base. A SSW would require the zonal mean zonal wind at 60 North 10 hPa to reverse, that’s not happening.

I know! I use NH view religiously right though the winter. I’m deliberately not doing so now, as we move into spring, as a mark of defiance against the weather gods, the anomaly charts, the stratosphere, the MJO, the GWO, the whole damn lot of them, for another, yes another, utterly woeful winter when the ‘background signals’ were supposedly in our favour. ECM rolling, out to T120:

GEM ends well, T240: I’m not saying this is likely to happen, but it is possible, what’s probable is high pressure influencing our weather, where the centre of the high might move to is open to question, but this is a very good run, exceptional actually, if a cold March is your thing!

UKMO goes for quite a different solution than we’ve seen recently re placement of the high, here T168: Marginal snow potential! Looks wrong compared with other output, but who knows!

The way I’m seeing it is that the way the models are suggesting the high pressure might move now bodes well for spring and early summer, yes might deliver some last ditch cold but will be short lived. If you look at the GFS 18z to T192; What we are starting to see here is the pattern that we would really like to see in summer, ridge from the Azores, then break off - and it might deliver an easterly, temporarily. But the bigger win is a repeating pattern that delivers a decent spring and early summer, something that I have mentioned before as a reasonably confident prediction -I think we should maybe forget winter prospects now - it has been a horror show! - and look to a promising pattern for early spring warmth…

Think that’s an example of the gambler’s fallacy!

UKMO 12z T168 and things are continuing to look more interesting as we move into March, with the potential for some kind of easterly flow.

ECM clusters supportive of some ridging to our NE as per UKMO and ECM op, T192-T240: La la land, looks a reet mess! One to watch….