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Mike Poole

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Everything posted by Mike Poole

  1. Mike Poole
    Looks as though the 0z runs are a slight shift south compared to the 18z runs. AROME looks particularly nasty with the likely sting jet feature hitting well inland in the midlands. Here from T25 onwards, the AROME 0z: The feature appears suddenly at T37.
  2. Mike Poole
    NO! Quite the reverse, it’s climbing down from its own nonsense and representing the storm proper! Have edited my earlier post, don’t want to mislead folks!
  3. Mike Poole
    ICON 18z completes the backtrack to the others, T39, T42: Confirming its status as a bit rubbish… No way out now, ICON has bit the dust, this storm is happening, it is a question of who, where and how now…
  4. Mike Poole
    Hey guys, don’t fixate on what appears on BBC or apps, it will be just the latest GFS or ECM or whatever…stick with the bigger picture, which is that the southern UK (the whole of it) is in a right mess from a storm which is now guaranteed but for which some details are uncertain. Apps just show the last run. I’m sure folks in here will do better in pinpointing the areas that might be most affected.
  5. Mike Poole
    Has anyone got any info on whether Storm Dudley was actually more potent than thought? I ask because it has been very windy round here, and I wasn't expecting that this far south - today anyway.
  6. Mike Poole
    Sorry, didn’t mean to imply you were arguing! I was trying to say that with the uncertainty that is still here vis-a-vis Friday, within the uncertainty envelope, maximum wind gust data from various models or websites cannot be relied on at all!
  7. Mike Poole
    These values are not worth arguing about, the uncertainty range on them is massive, at least +or- 10 mph, they are just what models are showing I guess, so respect the uncertainty and treat them as + or - 20 mph and they are all the same, no?
  8. Mike Poole
    NOAA: WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Archives NOAA NCEP de 1836 à maintenant ECM: WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Archives Reanalyse ECMWF ERA 5 de 1950 à maintenant I think these disappeared for a while when Meteociel had that fire, but are back now.
  9. Mike Poole
    If you are looking at an app or website, the value shown will just be the latest model run. To get an idea of what is really going on you need to view multiple model runs, as you can see on this thread, and watch as they converge towards Friday. I wasn’t expecting high wind gusts for tomorrow though? Surely the action is Friday? Any road, I’m sure this is the place where you’ll hear it first, guaranteed! So stay tuned!
  10. Mike Poole
    You’re confident! I’m less so…the ‘87 storm came from a completely different direction (south) so you are not comparing like with like. You are right about the time though, this one is hitting London during the day! So lower speed gusts might have more impact, of course.
  11. Mike Poole
    Yes, what I think is important from todays model runs is the extent of the country that will be subjected to potentially damaging winds at some point on Friday, that wasn’t as clear yesterday. And as you say, in densely populated areas. Welcome back to England, Nick!
  12. Mike Poole
    The ECM seems to have the most pessimistic output in terms of how strong the winds are and the depth of the low of all the 12z runs. But that is small margins, and the other models aren’t far behind. As I said earlier, I think UKMO evolution is likely to be closest to what happens.
  13. Mike Poole
    So do a lot of places, if I’m honest!
  14. Mike Poole
    Yes, this is why it looks like the highest winds will affect large swathes of England and Wales at some point. I don’t see this aspect being downgraded now in the main models, even if the maximum gusts are (and actually I don’t think they will either). Could anyone have drawn a storm hit any better that impacted as much of the southern half of the British isles, than this one? Caveat - it hasn’t happened yet, but room for manoeuvre on the models now must be very limited.
  15. Mike Poole
    Tableaux plot for the GEFS 12z, this is the value at each time point for the ensembles for the parameter, which is in this case, of course is wind gusts, gives an idea of the uncertainty, especially where I have indicated on Friday. This is for somewhere close to London: Values are in km/hr.
  16. Mike Poole
    ECM T48 compared to UKMO: ECM further north and more intense low, so that gives balance to the GFS and ARPEGE slightly more southerly runs earlier - the envelope of uncertainty is wide and the UKMO 12z looks to me to be just on the more intense side of the middle, if that makes sense… Will be able to say more when the more refined ECM output is available.
  17. Mike Poole
    No sign of the GEM tonight! Eunice aside, it seems that the stormy period may have a while to run, but I sense that heights from the south are likely to exert more influence by end of next week on GFS and UKMO, and the GFS is advertising spring has sprung at T366:
  18. Mike Poole
    Surely at less than T48 you would have to favour the UKMO model for the UK over all the others even ECM. Its primary purpose is to forecast the UK weather after all. But looking at the others on the 12z suite, it is the most severe, but not by that much. What strikes me with this track is how much of the country is exposed at one time or another to the highest gusts, it could be the largest red warning ever when it is issued tomorrow about 11am….???
  19. Mike Poole
    At this range I’d go with UKMO, has 968 T40: GFS as far as I know still over develops lows in 4 days time, but under 2 days to go, all the main models ought to be pretty close even with this level of uncertainty.
  20. Mike Poole
    UKMO 12z T38 to T54: I’ve run this one slower on the animation as it is probably likely to be more accurate than the GFS or ARPEGE at this range. You can see the eye of the storm develop and evolve through the run, and the winds gusts are higher than those from the other models, so this run is on the more severe end of the envelope of uncertainty at the moment, but those purples crossing western and southern England will be very hazardous, keep safe everyone.
  21. Mike Poole
    ARPEGE 12z from T37 to T57: What would appear to be the case is strongest winds along the south coast first, then pouring across the midlands south during the day, and I don’t think GFS 12z is that dissimilar, so we can start to imagine where the red warnings might be issued - I think many places might see one, the difference is perhaps in the timing they apply for, which could differ quite a bit depending on location.
  22. Mike Poole
    Not much respite on latest GFS, 12z T48: If you can make out where the country is under all that dark red! Certainly no appreciable southerly move on this run.
  23. Mike Poole
    The run up to this event is important in my view. Not only have we had storm Dudley, but in my neck of the woods we have had two days recently when it rained pretty much all day (yesterday and Sunday). If the ground is wet and soggy, it is more likely that trees may be uprooted when the really strong winds hit. I’m probably preempting the 12z runs but I think large swathes of the south are looking at a pretty scary event not seen in recent years at all.
  24. Mike Poole
    I expect we’ll find the ICON has further to move to the ‘correct’ solution. Let’s see what GFS 12z makes of it, but we’re down to under 48 hours now, I’m not seeing a major change from its earlier runs now, the storm is happening, big time.
  25. Mike Poole
    Yes, here T51 v 6z T57, don’t know what took it so long, it has looked well out of kilter with all the other model for days. The focus is now on refining the track of the storm.
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