Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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Interesting poll of experts. WHO continue to believe that we are catching most cases though. That difference in opinion needs to be resolved asap for clarity and future planning.
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It's obvious the government is listening to the CMO who has emphasised that timing is everything with this. He said we will get 50% of all cases in just a 3 week period so the lockdown has to be timed to capture all of this. What we don't want to do is go potentially up to a month too early then fatigue will set in by the time the real peak hits.
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It won't be proportional like that because testing is naturally geared towards higher risk people.
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Wasn't there a rise of 30 in London yesterday? I know testing is limited but still no sign of a big rise in a specific region so no cluster emerged yet.
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Shocking statistic coming from Italy that 58% of positive cases end up hospitalised. I remember reading a couple of weeks ago Italy would only test serious symptoms in order to prevent panic. Sorry but I'd much rather hear 100,000 cases and 400 deaths than 10,000 cases and 400 deaths.
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That has 5C and drizzle written a over it. It's the end of March with wind coming from a snowless continent.
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Same, not been great today. Western countries continue to say they expect millions to be infected. They have made the incredible efforts by South Korea and China useless. What a waste.
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Rate of increase is starting to slow at least, but that mortality rate is ridiculous. Worse than overwhelmed Wuhan, worse than third world sanction-hit Iran, nine times deadlier than South Korea. Something is going very wrong I hope it's just thousands of mild cases being missed.
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So that's an increase of about 55 since yesterday?
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Just read that Cyprus had its first two cases and interestingly one of them got it in the UK. We have definitely missed a lot of cases for this to be happening.
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I really hope they apply it like China did. Hopefully they do a China and give more evidence that this can be contained.
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2 weeks before lockdown has any effect, but seeing how embarassingly lax the lockdown is, I no longer have any faith in them slowing it down. Time to shut borders with Italy.
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Unless cases start clustering in certain regions, signifying sustained community transmission, then I don't see the point of doing anything more at present. The regional breakdown by Summer Sun looks like cases are fairly well spread across the country meaning most cases are still imported ones with very limited community transmission at the moment. For me the important thing will be noticing an emerging cluster and putting lockdowns on much earlier than Lombardi did when it got its cluster.
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Yes but the original post said geographical fringe, leaving no room for misunderstanding.
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You're never going to get the discipline seen in Chinese people in the West. Too many "I know my rights" type idiots.
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Phase 3 clinical trials (the last phase) have begun for antiviral Remdesevir against coronavirus, with results expected on 27th April. This drug has been shown to effectively inhibit the novel coronavirus at low concentrations in cell culture. As it is an existing antiviral (used, but failed against Ebola), if it were to hopefully succeed and show some sort of significant reduction in symptoms in the trial it should be available for mass use very quickly. I believe China has trials ongoing for this too.
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Just to clarify about the 2 strains, it was only a suggestion based on the fact they saw the L strain in Wuhan. No comparison between the 2 strains has been performed so there is no evidence that one strain is more virulent than the other. It is almost impossible that this started before November outside of Wuhan.
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Bit harsh to blame people in a complete state of panic. The blame lies with the authorities who gave everyone warning of when the lockdown starts instead of implementing it immediately.
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That doesn't explain Germany, South Korea, or the Diamond Princess though, who all have death rates below 1%. Personally I think Italy have missed thousands of cases
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Over 50% hospitalised. What the hell is going on there.
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This is another Wuhan. Horrible numbers.
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I think the lockdown will work but it's going to get a lot worse there before it gets better. It's going to be 2 weeks before we see improvements from the lockdown. Until then cases will rise by the thousands every day in Italy. If countries are being honest with themselves, regions that see cases of 50+ per day need to go on lockdown
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But apparently the WHO have no reason to doubt the official numbers and use them to calculate their high 3.4% mortality rate...
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Well that's that hospital becoming a ground zero in a few days. Shocking incompetence.
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I will trust the CMO and his data. I don't think it's a coincidence that the country that has tested the most people has almost exactly the mortality rate that is predicted by our CMO and his model.
