Snowy L

If the UKMO gets this right then it deserves all the credit. On its own yesterday backing a solution other than the relentless pattern that had been reinforcing itself for weeks and weeks.

Big improvement today, only 4C below average.

You forgot winter flooding? We were overdue some dry sunny weather, we got it in April and May. The two poor and good extremes were then cancelled out. I don't think anyone would have complained at an average summer, but it has been a disgrace, and warm nights masking the absolutely horrific daytime temperatures isnt an excuse.

Don't know why there was such shock at the GFS. As expected, backed up by the ECM. The charts going for settled weather in the midterm only for it to disappear has been the running theme for 6 weeks now.

I think it's the nights that are stealthily keeping the overall temperature close to average. This is the 2nd day in a row of maximum temperatures 6-8C below average for most areas of central England, yet the CET is only -0.4 from average. An example, current temperature (4-5pm is typically peak the time we get max temperatures) is 13C. The overnight "low" was 13C. Would be interested to see the CET broken down by daytime and nighttime temperatures. Daytime maximums have to be running at least 2C below average now.

Copy and paste today

Not at all, something like that remains a big possibility as long as we have this new semi permanent arctic high. In fact I would make that the likeliest scenario as this summer anything that can go wrong has, and will continue to, go wrong.

13C, drizzle in the height of summer in the one year we really needed some nice weather. No other word for it - depressing.

Well the inevitable downgrade has happened again. This has been the running theme of UK weather in the Global Warming era. Once a pattern change happens it doesn't shift for months on end. The models understandably want to shift the pattern in the mid-tern as patterns being stuck for 3-6 months wasn't a thing before global warming, yet there is a variable they keep missing and as this projected pattern shift comes into the short-term, it disappears.

So early in the season? We are over a month in and I can count on one hand the number of dry, warm sunny days we have had. No day will meet that criteria up to at least mid month too. The "good" spell early next week will be 4 degrees below average. So in 45 days of summer we will have had 5 dry, warm and sunny days. Pathetic. We are sleepwalking through summer saying it's still early wait a couple of weeks and before we know it, it will be September. Also as for April and May, that was payback for a disgraceful winter. So up to the start of summer we were even in terms of fortune for the year. After this summer disgrace we are owed something big again.

Mid July after that Friday low clears is last chance saloon for this summer. What an utter disgrace, only in the UK.

July may as well be written off too. When the jet is weak we have northern blocking meaning lows get docked over us, when the jet is strong we still have higher pressure than average over the Arctic so the jet is always on a collision with the UK. No way out of this mess until a substantial pattern change happens, and in the age of global warming these only happen once every few months. This summer is a write off for me.

Met office 1 to 30 very encouraging for the rest of the month, so there is that cling on to. Sorry but a couple of hot days will not make up for the disgusting summer we have had so far. Rain almost every day, the days that it doesn't rain are cloudy anyway so doesn't make a difference. Worst summer in recent memory by a a distance.

Looks like we are squeezing out another nice day, certainly the first half. 26C already.

I think after 7 days everywhere is equally getting hit. Models desperate to get a negatively tilted jet going = game over for the next 2 weeks at least.

10.30 and we have only just got rid of the cloud now. West of the region looks cloudy until at least midday. How can forecasts get things so badly wrong just 12 hours out.

Last shower clear d here a couple of hours ago. Nice weather begins now.

Early cloud has cleared and now it's almost completely clear, 22c feels hot as it's so humid. Best weather for almost 2 weeks.

For the first time in 11 days I can comfortably sit outside in summer. Shocking, only in the UK is such a streak possible.

Can see this happening all summer, we don't get changeable weather anymore, we get a pattern change that lasts for months at a time. We got unlucky with winter, lucky with spring and now looks like we will get the very worst outcome for the duration of summer. I keep hearing oh it's only transient, but we have already sleepwalked through 9 days of this and of GFS and ECM get their way it will easily be another 2 weeks. Almost an entire month written off already.

That ECM is horrific, the low stays on top of us until merging with the Atlantic to set up a neverending sliding jet. What is this desperation where we are meant to be grateful just to see rain and 20C instead of rain and 15C? Thankfully it is a bad outlier in terms of pressure.

To have such a difference at t120 between GFS and UKMO is just embarrassing:

But that was payback for one of the wettest winters on record... The law of averages is not having the same low pressure system stuck over or near you for 3 weeks.

ECM goes for the quick slide south like UKMO. Looks much more cut off from the rest of the Atlantic lows too so maybe an early end to the slider low conveyor belt?

Yep this isn't even just the UK at this point. Just about everywhere in Europe apart from Scandi and Italy maybe.