Snowy L
-
Posts
6,649 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Snowy L
-
I'm guessing that corrected too far west for the Midlands? I was in Liverpool at the time and that was the absolute sweettpot, got a foot of snow from that one.
-
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Snowy L replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let me know when it starts acting like it instead of flattening and going AO+ -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Snowy L replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS has acknowledged the fact a reversal of zonal winds has happened and the ECM + UKMO haven't -
Northern Hemisphere Omega-block not bad.
-
First shower has left a dusting. If we can get the Derby shower that wouldn't be too bad for the day.
-
Henhurst Hill, 50 meters making the difference then...
-
Just after having said that, it's started here. Hopefully get a cm or 2.
-
Haha of course a gap in the trough appears over Burton. Been about 5 miles away from 10cm of snow 3 times this week.
-
I'm not seeing any pivot, and it continues to move SW into West Mids and Wales, which is strange because the showers that appeared just 100 miles or so ahead over Wolves seem to be moving SSE.
-
Great BBC update with hours of heavy snow forecast now. On the other hand Met Office says a couple of hours of drizzle. I think met office is overdoing this warm sector, it's brief uppers of -4C.
-
The fact that it's not just the UK being affected but in fact the AO would go hugely positive on this morning's GFS should tell you it's not the SSW messing things up. The UK can get unlucky from SSWs, but northern blocking should still be there.
-
Strange, you would think West of region would be more likely to be less marginal as more protected from sea influence.
-
Where is it coming from though, surely it's from the East or Northeast, so 3 hours earlier should be over East Midlands, unless it is appearing out if nowhere?
-
Was wondering why BBC app had me down for hours of heavy snow showers tomorrow.
-
Perfect wall of Atlantic lows preventing a west based -NAO.
-
Not sure the North Sea is miles above average, looks slightly above at worst, maybe even slightly lower than average near Scotland. Metcheck.com - Global Sea Surface Temperatures - SST and SST Anomalies - Updated every 6 hours. WWW.METCHECK.COM Metcheck.com - Global Sea Surface Temperatures - SST and SST Anomalies - Updated every 6 hours. Remember that region has had northerly winds too for the last few days, things may have changed since a few weeks ago.
-
Don't understand that, the more that kink has developed (it's pretty much a small low pressure system in that pic), the less intense the ppn has become.
-
I've always remembered it dropping after 240, unless they have updated it? From wiki "The GFS model is a spectral model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the first 10 days and 27 km from 240 to 384 hours (16 days)" In fact regards to the precipitation point you can see it here switching between 240 and 252 Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 18Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten GFS Europe 18Z
-
Circular High just West of Iceland, cannot get any more perfect that. Wouldn't worry about the high suddenly rapidly weakening out of nowhere, yet again that is happening the moment it goes to low res at 240.
-
Decent shift East by the GFS for both day and night events. Unfortunately showing a snow to rain event for Thursday night, though my experience of the last few days is models and weather apps have overestimated temperatures by 1or 2C. I have had zero marginality for today's and yesterday's events, not even in the showers behind today's front, which all the models had as certain rain.
-
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Snowy L replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strange time to kill the high pressure given what is going on in the next layer of the atmosphere. Would think GFS will drop that idea after the SSW happens. -
To be honest we are probably better off hoping this one stays well south so the potential North England event Thursday night moves south too and catches all of the Midlands.
-
Not sure if this will do the flakes justice, but they are massive. 1-2cm on pavements, 3cm+ on grass now. VID_20201229_105343594.mp4
-
Forget 50p flakes we are onto 5 pound note flakes now.
-
Thought that was it but we are back to huge flakes again, some of these showers behind the main band are quite heavy.
