terrier

Think we have to accept that into next week it’s going to turn milder this has been the trend for the last few days now. Hopefully we will see a reload of cold as we head further into December which Tamara alluded to earlier in the thread. But before we see the milder air move in we have a good week of below average temps which will certainly help dry the ground out. Especially round these parts. So in summary a week of cold weather with a few wintry showers round the coast. Then back to some Atlantic influence before hopefully we see the cold return mid December onwards. Fingers crossed

Oh here we go again. From the highs of the gfs output last night. To the disappointment this morning. You couldn’t make it up. The ECM isn’t even that bad that would still be cold under that surface high. We are on the edge of a mild Atlantic we are never going to be locked into a 3 month freeze. Still all to play for going into winter.

For anyone worried about how dry the models looks don’t be. We will see all sorts of little disturbances show up for some in the unstable cold air mass. And once we do see the milder air make inroads into the U.K. I think with it bumping into entrenched cold we could see some large snowfalls for some.

Yeah think the north east the wash and Yorkshire could be in prime position for snow Thursday night into Friday morning.

Looks good to me lots of showers packing in off the North Sea. I’ve seen streamers set up from this set up which has dumped lots of snow in this part of the country

Well before the pub run starts. Just a heads up the beast from the east is on the telly. A coincidence I think not lol. ️

My apologies it’s been a long day.

Nothing unfortunately as it’s an outliner in its ensembles.

Wow what an absolute beauty of an ECM run there. Long way back to anything mild if the ecm is to be believed. But it definitely ties in with what Chris flakes was saying earlier on countryfile

Think your are in with a very good chance of some snowfall next week in your location looking at the output today ️

Well great charts tonight if it’s cold and possibly a chance of snow for some. The ECM was fantastic and that will take some beating. Thankfully I’m heading to sunnier climbs for 10 days but I wish you all luck in your snow chase fingers crossed guys. Just hope we can land back at Manchester in 10 days time lol

For the far north yes. For the majority cold rain

And a snow making machine for us northerners

So after some having a melt down after the pub run last night. This morning output seems a lot more favourable. The ukmo looks great. As does the gem & gfs. Come on the ECM

Nothing wrong with tonight’s output in my opinion turning colder with snow chances galore also we now have the met on board and the ukmo is a thing of beauty. Bring it on. These Synoptics for late November early December in years gone by we would have snapped your hand off.

And there we have the 1st line of the model output bingo. West based lol. Think the output this morning is fine in my opinion. The ukmo and gfs are absolutely fine. Yes no snowmageddon but definitely a lot more seasonal as give us a chance to dry out after months of rainfall.

Surely that wishful thinking on those temps looking at tonight’s ouput. Must be old data

Reckon these will be busy for next 10 days if the ecm & gfs are on the money. Bring it on. ️

£10 quid says this all shifts south and goes down into Greece as per usual. Only joking what a cracking set of output tonight. Surely they is some head scratching going on now at the met office. Bet Fridays update reads differently if this output continues.

Well big ECM coming up here. Think we need it to move towards the GFS if the met office are going to sit up and take notice.

Have to agree with you on this one. The Glosea/Ec must not be buying this. As you say the met are probably the best in the business and they certainly aren’t buying what the GFS is churning out at the moment. Guess something has to give in the next few days. One thing for sure one way or another is going to have egg on its face. Until the met are fully onboard I won’t be rushing out to get the de ice just yet.

Some lovely looking charts at the moment. But I remain sceptical. As we know we could do with the met office on board. Unfortunately reading there latest musings sounds like a short sharp cold blast. Before we are back to cloudy damp milder conditions. Obviously they have much more data to hand than us mere mortals so I remain firmly feet on the ground at this moment in time.

Well tonight’s GFS12Z isn’t too bad at all after about Wednesday next week lots of dry weather around and should certainly feel pleasant In any sunshine. Then it remains dry and settled right out to the following week should certainly feel pleasant enough for late summer early autumn.

To be honest I think tonight’s GFS12z looks a lot better than this mornings GFS output from around middle of next week things settle down with a high pressure building in for the end of next week and into the weekend of the 1st of September onwards.

So it seems next week we have a low pressure sat over the U.K. with showers or longer spells of rain according to the Gfs06z. Into the following weekend looks like things may settle down somewhat. But only a few days ago things weren’t looking to bad which the gifs now seems to have dropped that idea for the start of next week. Maybe these tropical storms are sending the models all over at the moment. More runs needed I guess.