terrier
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unfortunately it still looks like lots of showers or longer spells of rain on that sequence of output. Definitely not very summer like for mid July. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So that takes us out to the last week of July and still unsettled with temps around average with and plenty of showers or longer spells of rain I would suspect. Roll on August for hopefully something resembling summer. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah we can’t catch a break whatsoever at the moment. Start of the school holidays back end of next week too. Isn’t looking good is it. Let’s hope for something better early August. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not a great set of outputs this morning. We are once again looking at t384 on the gfs for anything slightly more settled. Which no doubt will keep getting pushed back. This week showers or longer spells of rain. Then into the weekend gales and heavy rain for many areas in the west. Then into the following week we see further heavy rain and temps below average. Not great for high summer unfortunately. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So that takes us out to a week on Thursday. Not great is it. Unsettled next week. Then cool and unsettled the following week. Absolutely horrid for high summer. Let’s hope early august can pull something out the hat. Because July has been an absolute disaster of a month. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the last week of July carry on in the same vain either. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the long range output I think looking at your week away I would pack your waterproofs unfortunately. We should have also been away that week on the east coast but we have decided to cancel. As don’t think sitting in the rain at the cricket festival would be much fun. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well the Gfs & Ecm are diabolical this morning. Unsettled all the way out towards months end now. So I think we can probably write off July now. Let’s hope for signs of an improvement as we move into early August. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very quiet in here. I take it the GFS is another horror show. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow. The gifs & gem is not what we are wanting to see in high summer. 3 low pressure systems tracking through the U.K.. which takes us out to the 21st of July. Think July is going to come in below average temps wise. Let’s hope for something better as we move into august. Because July is looking like a complete and utter bust. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So that takes us out to the last week in July. Wow what a depressing outlook. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I shouldn’t have even looked at the gfs 06z run. All I will say is oh dear. Maybe some temporary ridging next week. But overall a terrible run for high summer. I’m now getting to the stage of July been a complete right off for high summer conditions. Can’t see anything on the long range models to suggest otherwise. Even the met long range is now hinting at unsettled conditions out to months end. Seems we are certainly paying for that warm dry June. Roll on august for hopefully something better. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah I agree with your analysis. July isn’t looking great at all. We have already cancelled our stay cation on east coast w/c 24th of July. Don’t think the cricket festival in Scarborough will be much fun looking at the long range output. Hopefully a change as we head into august. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ecm and its ensembles are awful this morning. Looks like we are proper stuck in a rut with this pattern. Glad I’ve cancelled my stay cation last week of July. Hopefully august will bring us something better. Because July is shaping up to be a nightmare of a month if it’s sun and warmth you’re after. Should have know better than to book a week on the east coast in this country -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ukmo looks good for the coming weekend. Gfs & gem also not too bad. Before the rubbish weather returns on Monday. Talking of rubbish and looking at the longer range decided to cancel our stay cation on the east coast w/c 24 of July. Don’t think Scarborough cricket festival will be much fun in the rain and cool temps. Certainly paying for that lovely warm June. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well if that is anywhere close to correct looks like we can pretty much write off July. What a shame. Hopefully august will bring back summer. Think our stay cation in the U.K. at end of July could be a wet one. Ah well at least it’s dry in the pub lol -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m not for writing off an entire month. But Jesus wept that is an awful chart. Let’s hope this isn’t a pre cursor to a wet and cool July. Wouldn’t be the first time we have seen a pattern like this get entrenched for high summer. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well if the gifs is anything to go by this morning we can pretty much write off the first week of July. Also the Ec46 seems to be losing the settled outlook as we move forward into high summer. I fear we may end up paying for such a warm and dry June. I’m not writing off July as a whole. But as things stand it isn’t looking great. Let’s hope for a change as we move forward. Think we need to make the most of this weekend. Because it could be awhile before we see anything warm and settled for some time. If the output is correct of coarse. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thankfully it’s looking like some much needed rain next week. Farmers & Growers will be liking tonight’s model output so far. Still looking warm though between any drier spells. But overall next week is looking very showery. But not a bad thing to be honest. We certainly need the rain round these parts. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be honest the farmers round here are crying out for rain. The carrot crop fields here are having to be irrigated just to germinate. Some rain would be most welcome. And thankfully the models are now hopefully trending towards some rainfall as we move forward thankfully. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
terrier replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thankfully that looks a great update for many especially farmers. We all need some much needed rain round here now. And that would certainly tie in with the met office thinking of a cooler wetter July. Certainly no complaints on that update.