terrier

Wow that streamer over Harrogate is causing some problems over there. Would love this to move down across West Yorkshire but I think it looks like it will die away before it hits us unfortunately

Goodness me some right moaning going on in here this morning. Yes the gfs 00z overnight wasn’t great. But the gfs06z is looking better early doors. We have at least seven days of cold frosty and snow for some what’s not to like. And we also have a ssw heading into the new year. Think we are in for a few interesting few weeks ahead of us. Yes it’s no dec 2010. But definitely nothing mild and Atlantic driven that’s for sure.

Looking very good on latest output tonight could be looking at 5cm on lower ground and 10cm over higher parts of our region. Looks like I might have to buy that sledge after all. If it continues to move north we could be right underneath that pivot. Interesting 48hrs ahead that’s for sure.

Latest euro snow model looks very good for our part of the region tomorrow

Looks like we could see a good few cm’s of snow tomorrow from the latest forecast. Mostly showers but looks like they could form into longer spells of snow if everything falls into place. Plus whatever does fall shouldn’t melt as looks to be getting colder & colder as next week progresses. Definitely looks like next week could see some fun and games aswell. Could see most of Yorkshire having a good covering on snow by the end of next week. Might even go purchase a sledge tomorrow. Enjoy folks it’s looking very interesting few weeks ahead.

A boom run if frost and fog are your thing. But very little in the way of snowfall which I think many on here crave. That 18z gfs run is very dry. But some harsh frosts for sure.

Another very cold run from the pub run tonight. Lots of hard frosts and freezing fog to contend with. But it is looking very dry for the majority can’t see much in the way in snowfall next week to be honest maybe a few flurries kicking around. But certainly no significant snowfall on those charts next week.

Not too sure about that think we will do ok for some snowfall next week. Think all the troughs will be hard to pin down right until the last minute. But I would be amazed if Yorkshire doesn’t see some settling snow next week in fact I’d be amazed.

Well that’s a very sobering update. So does that mean we can discount the GFS ECM & GEM output. Because that met update is against all those 3 models. But as I’ve just mentioned it isn’t a bad thing especially for the poor soles down in Norfolk today surrounded by flood water. I think they would snap your hand off right now for high pressure over the U.K. to at least dry things out. Guess we should never discount the met once again. Anyway merry Christmas to everyone on here and happy new year.

Maybe not totally model related but I hope the met office are correct with high pressure over the U.K. I’ve got family down in Norfolk that are surrounded by floods this morning. They really need a break and time to dry out. So fingers crossed the met have this nailed for the high sat over the U.K.

What to barnard castle. Are the uppers colder there. Sorry couldn’t resist. Happy Christmas everyone

No your ok I’ve said my piece now. Some of the members that have been here awhile now can see this set up is nothing but a chilly spell than a big freeze. But some will still keep hyping the charts for something they are not at the moment. Will come back in the new year and see if anything has changed. Anyway merry Christmas and happy new year to everyone.

Can’t see much in the way of lowland snowfall in this set up but I will happily be proved wrong. All I’m trying to say is away from Scotland and northern hills I can’t see much but rain and sleet for many.

I’m sorry but I’m really struggling here to see the excitement I think a few people are getting confused with these blue areas over the U.K. at the moment. Yes we are better placed than last winter admittedly. But are we heading for a deep freeze with deep crunchy snow for many. From what I’m seeing at the moment definitely not. Now before I get called a mild lover far from it. We have even had mr murr on here this morning saying the uppers are very marginal in this set up we are seeing. Do I think some will see some snowfall yes. But away from Scotland and the highest northern hills I think we are looking at cold rain and sleet. Unfortunately we just don’t have the cold available to the east at the moment. So let’s see what transpires over the next week. But just remember these areas of blue over the U.K. don’t necessarily mean deep cold and bucket loads of snow. And as Steve has already said this is a very marginal situation I’m afraid. So don’t expect much in the way of snowfall away from the far northern hills and Scotland would be my guess.

Well I’ve got to say looking at the 850s on the gfs output it looks like for the majority of the U.K. we would be looking at cold rain for the vast majority of us. And just seen the weather for the week ahead and temps for Xmas day we are looking at between 6c in the north and 8c in the south so pretty standard fair to be honest. Still think into the new year could be our best shot that’s if the ssw works in our favour fingers crossed.

Yeah just a shame it’s the gfs.

Well it’s almost time to strap ourselves in again. We really need to see a big adjustment from the ukmo around the T120 mark. And we could do with an improvement from the Ecm later aswell. I think if the ukmo and ecm stick to there earlier parts of the output from this morning then I feel the gfs is leading us up the garden path again. Anyway not long now let’s see what occurs.

I wasn’t talking about the far reaches of fantasy island. I’m talking about earlier in the you can see it moving towards the ecm early doors in the run. The ukmo and ecm this morning aren’t great. But I guess people will still bury there head in the sand because it doesn’t fit there cold agenda. I’m sorry but they is too much hope casting and some are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment I feel. All the talk yesterday of another dec 2010 we’re pie in the sky. Sorry for the rant but the ecm and ukmo aren’t great but I guess the gfs will be our saviour in some eyes.

So what a we take from the gfs06z output. Well it’s certainly taken a step towards the ecm this morning no doubt about that. Are we going to see a half way house here as we usually do in this situation. The thing that is looking like could happen is we end up with west based -nao which is no use to us. It seems we are back to looking at the 10day charts once again. I’m not so sure we’re we go from here. I’d expect the gfs to keep taking baby steps towards the euros this evening. You certainly wouldn’t bet against the Ukmo and ecm model at such a short range it would take a brave sole.

Well it all seems to have gone the way of the pear this morning the ukmo at t120 doesn’t look great the gfs & ecm we are looking at far reaches of fi again. Even out at day 10 the 850s are rubbish we just have nothing cold wise to the east to tap into. I do feel we are going to be relying on a ssw to help us out here but we all know that doesn’t guarantee anything for the U.K. So apart from a few frosts over Xmas it looks decidedly dodgy this morning on the output. But as we all know if it can go wrong for a cold spell in the British isles it normally will do.

Not been funny but we are seeing these great charts but the temps are nothing special are they. Certainly not conductive to snowfall that for sure.

I’m sorry but that is just absolutely a load of rubbish. No chart is showing heavy country wide snowfall and widespread snow drifts. If you think that I’m afraid your setting yourself up for a large disappointment.

Yes underwhelming for sure 8c doesn’t spell snowmageddon to me. All this talk of the gfs tonight been 2010 is all pie in the sky. This chart just shows why we need to remain firmly grounded.

Well not long now till this evening model output from the icon ukmo gfs & ecm. I still have that feeling we are been slightly lead up the garden path again by the output. Because the latest met musings are nothing like what the models seem to be churning out at the moment. But I guess there are still in the reaches of +8 days away yet for anything intriguing. And for those who have been around a while now will know these things can go wrong at t72 hours. Anyway let’s see what tonight’s output brings. But I must admit not having the met on board is a worry. But as ever time will tell.

Thankyou finally at least someone can see that they is far too much hope casting going on in this thread at moment. When will people learn this is what causes the toys been thrown out the pram when it all goes the shape of the pear. Yes the gfs & ecm show something abit more seasonal over Xmas with some frost and a few wintry flurries over the highest ground. But all this talk of snowy winter wonderland is wide of the mark for vast swathes of the U.K. Just look at the met they certainly aren’t thinking we are heading for the next 1963 winter style symbiotics. So I’d be very cautious at the moment because snowmagedon it is not. And people are just once again setting themselves up for huge disappointment