terrier

Thankfully at the moment looks like West Yorkshire looks to be in the rain shadow. All the heaviest precipitation looks to be towards the south of us. Not sure if this will change later. I’d rather it stay like this for next few days to avoid our fields getting even wetter. Haven’t even done our 1st cut silage yet.

Heavy snowfall now here at ainley top Huddersfield in last 20mins

Few flakes blowing around in the breeze so far. Don’t think today will amount to very much maybe a few cms for the higher parts of our region. The more concerning think is Thursday now looks a complete bust. With the main band now down over the midlands. And as we have seen before once these low correct south it’s very rare they move back north.

But haven’t you said the gfs is cannon fodder?? So what makes it correct this time if it’s classed as a cannon fodder??

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.

Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend.

So just read through 20+ pages and we have gone from joy to toy slinging in space of 6 hours. Yes the gfs was showing 1947 style charts last night. But we should never discount the ecm. It’s top performance model for a reason. And who’s to say today’s output is correct anyway. They are only model output trying to work out what could happen. Mother Nature can make a fool of us all.

Think we all know until the ecm comes on board we should treat these gfs runs with a huge amount of salt. We all know how much stick the gfs gets and probably rightly so. The ecm is a top performance model for a reason. Let’s hope tomorrow is something similar to these crazy runs from gfs. But until then I’m keeping my feet firmly on the ground. Yes the ecm was cold upto 144 but it’s no where near what the gfs is showing. I’d be putting my money on ecm. Because in the words of Steve murr the gfs isn’t the greatest model out there. Certainly wouldn’t be putting my mortgage on the nirvana charts it throwing out at the moment.

The trend is our friend as they say. Let’s hope the dominoes are starting to fall in our favour. Interesting times ahead me thinks. ??

Very nice looking ecm at day 10 this evening. Let’s try and remember that day 10 chart is the 17th of January so we still have it all to play for. As the winter of 1947 didn’t get going until the 23rd of January and never stopped until March. ??

Not a bad gfs run this morning. Shame it’s the gfs though. Let’s see what the ecm says looks ok so far though.

Nice looking ukmo this evening could lead to a few possibilities heading forward. Be nice to see where the ecm heads at 168 later on. As ever gonna ignore the gfs as it’s absolutely cannon fodder or so we are told....

Very true if things can go wrong they usually do for the U.K. yes gfs06z looks nice but we are told it’s cannon fodder model and to stick with the European models. So for now I’m disregarding the gfs output. Because as Steve murr has told us countless times it is 5th in the stats for a reason. Hopefully we will see a better ecm and Ukmo later on.

Nice looking gfs06z out in fi. But will these get any closer. Seems like we are chasing day 9&10 again. And we are told that the gfs is cannon fodder model anyway so can we really put any faith in it. The hunt continues.

Yes week 3 and 4 so basically last week of jan 1st week of feb. Looks pretty good to me ?

cold end to jan early feb gathering pace.

So yesterday we were told the gfs is garbage and about as much use as a chocolate fire guard. And to follow the ecm. And now it’s not as good as the gfs some are saying it will come into line. Oh the joys and irony

So it looks and sounds like the ssw could be on shaky ground. Models don’t look particularly exciting either. Think it’s time to take a break from the hunt for cold till after Xmas to save my sanity. So I will wish everyone a happy Christmas. And hope for maybe better news and output into the new year. Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all.

Like I said earlier in the model thread I think far too much has been made of this ssw. Yes a ssw can increase our chances of colder weather. But it certainly doesn’t guarantee it. With that last paragraph of the update I’m wondering if Glosea is moving away from the ssw affecting the U.K. from a cold outbreak. Looking at the output over the weekend it seems like the split could send the cold towards North America side of the globe. Leaving us open to Atlantic weather. Which could tie in with that last sentence.

This ssw in my opinion people have been putting too much influence on it bringing cold to the U.K. and it does now appear that some of the output is toying with the idea of the displacement been over N America. Which would in turn fire up the jet stream coming out of the states. Which in turn would bring us unsettled Atlantic driven weather. As the old adage goes if it can go wrong for the U.K. it normally does. I’m certainly not convinced this ssw will bring the goods in January for our tiny island.

Don’t mean to be the grinch here. But if we look back at there 16/30 day outlook for November it failed miserably. So although it does make pleasant reading I certainly wouldn’t be betting my mortgage on it.

Your like this every winter sausage. Met never forecast heavy snow for our region. It was more about the freezing rain. Chill out. January is still looking good. I’m sure you will get your fix at some point this winter. Met have called today spot on in my opinion.

Just a little nod to the jamstec model. Think this sums it up nicely!!

well the gfs06z is a cracking run. Just look at that for xmas eve. Just need the ecm to stop be the scrooge of christmas past now.Come on gfs you can do it.

so it looks like the ukmo at 168 is following the ecm output. Which looks like the gfs is been to quick at bringing in the cold .The ec46 does look good for jan onwards though.So lots to look forward to jan onwards i feel.