terrier

Well we live in the U.K. right next to the Atlantic Ocean. So if it can go wrong 9 times out of 10 it will do. It’s the law of sod in this country

Looks to me reading over last few pages that too much onus is been put on this ssw. Judan Cohen has looked at a few ssw events for Western Europe and only 1/7 has resulted in colder weather for Western Europe. Anyway back to the models looks like the Atlantic comes in this weekend with maybe some brief spell of snow for the highest hills in the north. Apart from that keeping feet firmly on the ground. Because this ssw certainly isn’t guaranteed to bring us colder weather. We could very easily end up on the wrong side of any blocking. Which would be just our luck.

So we could have all these good looking strat charts and still end up with mild southwesterly Atlantic driven weather. That would be just our luck in the U.K.

Looks like we are now pinning our hopes on a ssw for late December January onwards. But I recall this been progged a few years back. And unfortunately that came to nothing. Now I’m not suggesting this will go the same route. But a ssw doesn’t guarantee us anything for our tiny island. So think its going to part of the fun of the chase. But just because we are hearing the right noises regarding the strat warming let’s try and not throw our toys out the parm if it doesn’t materialise.

Well that ecm and gfs were pretty horrible viewing this morning lots more wind and rain to come. Atlantic is looking too powerful at the moment. Sending dartboard lows our way. Now I see the ec46 is our saviour. But wasn’t it only the last few updates where some were saying ec46 changes like the wind. Then we move onto a ssw. Now the only problem with a ssw is it doesn’t guarantee cold weather for the U.K.. even with a ssw we could end up with very similar to what we have now. Yes a ssw does raise our chances of colder weather. But definitely not a guarantee.

Yes the gfs06z doesn’t make the best reading. But didn’t Steve murr say yesterday give it 48-72hours and watch the models back track to a colder blocked set up. Let’s just wait until the weekend. Because if mr murr is on the money all isn’t lost for this cold spell.

Well the ecm and gfs are horrible this morning for cold and wintry weather. The easterly doesn’t even reach us. Gfs looks like from middle of next week we are back to heavy rain and strong winds. Let’s just hope Steve Murr is on the money with the models been too keen to bring in the Atlantic. But this morning isn’t great for the hunt for cold thread

Could definitely see upgrades to the warnings regarding this storm looking at latest output. Could see north of Scotland and much of northern England seeing gust of 70-80mph as the storm pushes across.

I know this is the hunt for cold. But does seem on the gfs12z we could have some potentially damaging winds Friday into Saturday. Looks like Scotland and northern England could see some pretty damaging winds. Not great.

I agree the ecm does look a lot better this evening. But regarding 7-8c next week I think that will be pretty close. Don’t forget the North Sea is still around 12-14c which will moderate cold to our shores quite considerably.

So confusing some say Ukmo moves towards the ecm. Gfs has stonking cold run incoming. Ecm will climb down later towards the gfs. Not surprised some of us get confused.

Just another quick point about the gfs output at the moment is we have to remember that the North Sea is around 12-14c still so that will definitely moderate the cold to our shores. Definitely will be interesting to see what the ecm goes onto show this evening. Maybe we will see a half way house between the gfs and ecm in the coming model runs.

Well that’s what an amazing run from the gfs06z. But with the ecm not singing from the same hym sheet I’d be very wary of the gfs output at the moment. We must try and remember the ecm is the top performing model in the verification stats. Think all this talk of lake effect snow. And something akin to December 2010 could be wide of the mark. Not trying to be a grinch. Just we need the blocking to set up perfect for our tiny island to be in with a shout. Just a shame these charts aren’t 6 weeks later.

Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet.

So Florence is now a Cat 1 hurricane. Think a lot of people over there will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Yeah some on the coast are still going to get some flooding unfortunately. But looking at some news reports this morning this doesn’t seem anywhere as bad as first feared thankfully.

Well I’m in Spain as we speak until the 14th of August frosty. Trust me it’s hot. And looking at the ecm it’s heading straight for the U.K. shores aswell enjoy. Hopefully it will still be around on my return.

Well next week would be a nice taster of things to come with 36/37c. As week after I’m back to Spain for a month. We’re temps are currently 39/40c

Can’t see it been prolonged if we look at the ecm clusters from earlier today. By day 10 we see a weakening of the ridge. By day 13 everything is flattened out. And by day 15 we have 100% of ensembles going unsettled. Yes some want this to go on for longer. But we can’t ignore the models firming up on an unsettled mid month. And to be honest for farmers and moors fires etc some rain would be most welcome.

Thankfully tonight on the gfs12z we start to see the hot weather moving away at T276. And at last some much needed rainfall amounts. Which is good news especially for the moors fires etc. But until then we have at least another 10 days of heat and hot weather. Enjoy it while it last. Because it looks like the output is starting to firm up on a mid month break down to much more unsettled.

Seems as though a few models are now thinking along the lines of a breakdown mid month. Let’s hope there onto something. The ground is absolutely parched round here. Certainly some rainfall would be most welcome by many. And it does seem like the gfs06z parallel isn’t alone in ushering in some cooler and wetter weather.

Well the gfs turns on the blow torch conditions next week. But then thankfully around the weekend of the 14th/15th of July we could see some much needed rainfall. We really could do with some rain now. Especially for the farmers etc.

Here is hoping the farmers round here are desperate for some rainfall. And also the for the fires around saddleworth. Looking at those charts does seem that around the 13th we could see a change to some welcome rainfall. Here is hoping.

Well looking at the gfs06z over Easter doesn’t really fill me with much joy. Cold horrible rain for majority with some snowfall for Scotland and highest parts of northern England. Unfortunately spring does look to be on hold. Wish we could start to see some warmth showing in the output now. Think even the most ardent coldie must be wanting an end now.

Right guys and girls I think it’s time for me to head into my spring summer slumber. And hopefully see you all back here nov dec for the next chase. Take care everyone. And it’s been a great few days. And who would of ever thought of seeing a positive terrier lol. Take care everyone it’s been a blast. ?

Got to say the paths out there are Lethal today. Stay safe people. Got to say I echo a few thoughts on here this morning that the thaw can set in for me now. Need the paths to unfreeze and to be able to get the cars off the side streets that are just pure sheet ice. Hopefully a big thaw over the weekend so everyone can get back to normality on Monday.