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terrier

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Everything posted by terrier

  1. terrier
    Think many of us got caught up in the wirlwind of the ukmo over the last 3 or 4 days. But hopefully now we have seen it come into line with the gfs and I think later the ECM we can hopefully get a trend of we're we are heading. I would expect the Atlantic to barrel in again as per the ukmo t144 chart which to be honest the met have been backing in there 6-15 day outlook. So after a brief flirt with something colder we seem to be getting the Atlantic back in which isn't great especially for flooded areas.
  2. terrier
    Think frosty is going to need to pull out all the stops on mod thread tonight. Looks like after a very brief cold spell mid week the Atlantic come storming through. More rain which ain't good.
  3. terrier
    So the ukmo falls in line with the gfs expect some kind of model consistency to appear now over next few days. Think any snow will be restricted to say Newcastle northwards with rest of us seeing a sleety rainy mix. Hats off to the gfs and ECM on this one. Though ukmo was too good to be true.
  4. terrier
    Well if due south is correct about what he is saying about piers Corbyns forecast for feb then think we can forget winter this yr now. But if he is near the mark at least the south can dry out.
  5. terrier
    Like Ian has said tonight the met are saying they is a very good chance that either the ECM gfs solution could win out or the ukmo jam model could win out many more runs over weekend needed. Think we won't be any wiser until perhaps the 12z on Monday or even Tuesday think anything past t72 is fi at moment
  6. terrier
    Very confusing output tonight. It does sound to me with all these tweets been posted that we are looking at a very messy picture next week. The ukmo was great tonight. But then the ECM throws a spanner in the works and looks very similar to the gfs output at t96 which is a big worry if it cold and snowy picture were after. I'll await the ensembles around 20.30hrs with interest.
  7. terrier
    So ukmo is out on its own tonight. Let's hope it's on the money or else I fear for this forum. But the ECM at t120 doesn't fill me with confidence. Must say though think the models will flip and flop over the weekend. But I would say a cold and snowy outbreak is far from been a done deal here.
  8. terrier
    Really value Ian's output on this thread. And they certainly have more acess to data than we do and it seems obvious that the mogreps model isn't buying any real cold outbreak past Thursday next week. With nearly 90% of the eps members going for a return to Atlantic winning through. And for them not to be backing there own model ukmo at moment that should really tell us all we need to know.
  9. terrier
    Just been looking over on mr Corbyns twitter page again. And reading a few comments from his subscribers and it seems that he is going for a mild feb. And it's sounds like his big headline of most important forecast since dec 2010 seems like abit of a sales tactic. Just wondering if anyone knows what he is actually forecasting.
  10. terrier
    no I'm going by the met extended outlook. Ian's updates that the Atlantic taking charge again into next week. We been chasing cold since November on the charts. And I think it's time now to give it up for me anyway. The next 10 days on the charts and ensembles don't paint anything uk cold wide. So that takes us into feb. Sorry but just how I feel tonight think like I said Ian's update is a real kick in the teeth
  11. terrier
    Well looks like Ian has finally put the final nail in our winter coffin. Looking at the charts after Friday looks like more heavy rain and gales. Especially on the gfs tonight. As Crewe cold has mentioned think it's probably time to put this winter to bed.
  12. terrier
    Just had at look at piers corbyns site. Most important forecast since dec 2010. Now somebody was saying its a sales ploy. And he is going for above average rainfall and mild. Just wondering if anyone else seen this?
  13. terrier
    well lets see if the06z verifys for sat night. But with the wild swings in the output think we need to wait to see if this is still been shown on wed or thur eve.
  14. terrier
    Well it looks like the jet firing up again at end of the week bringing more heavy just what we don't need really. And as gibby has said very little signs of anything cold in next 10 days.
  15. terrier
    So the ECM leads us all up the garden path again. What a surprise. It's been shocking this winter. The gfs has out performed it at days 5/6 this winter. Now back to this mornings output. The ukmo looks isolated in its output. Then the ECM is falling into line with the gfs again. With the Atlantic firing up over us by day 10 which means we are now looking at mid feb again.
  16. terrier
    Scandinavia high further east on this run. Think the Azores high is going to scupper our chances here.
  17. terrier
    Looking like more storms and rain on the gfs and ECM tonight with a lucky few seeing abit of wet snow. But certainly no freeze anytime soon. Just got a feeling we're going to be on the wet stormy side when the pv splits. Also the ec32 update today doesn't bode well for cold out to mid feb. And I would say it's performed excellent this winter so far.
  18. terrier
    at work so on my phone can't post charts at moment I'm afraid. But certainly a backtrack towards the gfs solution from the ukmo and ECM this morning
  19. terrier
    Well everyone was bashing the gfs last night. But it appears it may be leading the way once again. The ukmo is looking very zonal this morning. ECM isn't looking great either. Don't understand why the gfs gets so much stick on here. It's certainly been best model so far this winter. The ECM has been shocking.
  20. terrier
    I would say they is still a lot to be resolved in the coming days yet with the models. Mogreps was going for 50% outbreak from the east. Now that's diminished somewhat to 25%. Think 50/50 is about correct at the moment. Still believe this could go either way. Just a quick point regarding the ECM how many times have we seen it showing cold this winter? Only for it to fail miserably every time. Anyway going to be interesting model watching over the coming days. Let the battle commence.
  21. terrier
    Looking at the models tonight we can obviously see why Shannon empathy has come into this. Mogreps was obviously showing 10% then 50% and now 25% on this potential easterly. Think next week we will see the block hopefully strengthen. Think feb could hopefully be a interesting month. But with volitile nature of the models at the moment anything could happen.
  22. terrier
    I would advise we ignore the ECM tonight. It just doesn't look feesable to me. Think it's gone off on one again. Only 2 words for this run tonight garden and path.
  23. terrier
    Regarding the output today. Yes it's a poor outlook. But if they have flipped in the last 3 days then to me they is a possibility they could flipp back to something colder. Keep the faith.
  24. terrier
    Think we will see at least 1 cold shot in feb. But there is at least one good thing about all this. And that's how the hell is madden going to talk his way out of this one. Just a quote from him. I expect January to be a exceptional cold and snowy month. Rivaling dec. 2010. Lol try get out of this one James.!!!!
  25. terrier
    Looking at the latest output this morning isn't happy reading. The gfs 00z shows the pv reforming in its latter frames. The ukmo just sums up our winter. Looking wet and windy next week again. Not good for flood hit areas. ECM also showing the Atlantic moving through later next week. Think I'm going to throw the towel in now. Just doesn't seem to want to happen for us this winter.
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