Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

terrier

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,184

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by terrier

  1. terrier
    our country would grind to a halt if we had that.
  2. terrier
    Let's get dec out the way, then hopefully we may see the affects of the ssw as we move into January.
  3. terrier
    Well it once again looks like Atlantic is going to win out for the back end of month. Bringing further rain and winds. Feeling cool under a polar maritime flow though. Just feel like we're once again chasing the cold just like last year. Hopefully we see a change around mid dec but I'm not holding much hope.
  4. terrier
    Much better run from gfs pub run. But been reading Ian pennells forecast tonight. And it's sounding all too familiar. Great analysis from him though. And he called last year spot on.
  5. terrier
    Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.
  6. terrier
    Think after reading met office 16-30 day outlook I will take a break from model watching. Looks like a westerly set up out to mid dec. think we will see a cold outbreak but perhaps in the new year. Just hope we don't see the awful flooding we had last year in the run upto xmas.
  7. terrier
    but the met office has called this upcoming spell spot on. There is nothing remotely cold in there extended range. The models look to be shaping up for a westerly Atlantic flow to set up. And i wouldn't be surprised to see the mets lrf for winter been near the mark in my opinion.
  8. terrier
    So the models this morning all seem to be going for a mild westerly set up for the foreseeable future. Think we might have to wait till early dec now for any cold spells. Because looking at the gfs and ECM this morning it's looking very Atlantic dominated
  9. terrier
    it does look like it is setting up to be very similar outcome again. But I do think we will see the Atlantic coming up against the cold air over uk later in the season.
  10. terrier
    Certainly looks like the cold from the States is once again firing up depressions heading straight for the uk on this mornings gfsp. With the low pressure hitting the block to the east. Think flooding could well be a issue in next few weeks.
  11. terrier
    Think we can't discount the met outlook to be honest. The lrf models seem to be going for above average temps and above rainfall. Think we may be seeing all these positive signs from the qbo strat sai but I've got a funny feeling we're going to be on the wrong side of the blocking to be honest
  12. terrier
    So the ECM easterly has gone. Seems like this model has a habit of leading us up the garden path. Looks unsettled with heavy rain been the main issue.
  13. terrier
    Personally I would be tempted to back the gfs on this occasion ties in well with the met office outlook.still think the ECM is too progressive. Expect it to back down towards gfs over next few runs.
  14. terrier
    If we start seeing the gfs and ukmo move towards the ECM I might start to belive it. But at the moment I think tonight's output from the ECM is been to progressive. We all know what happened in December 2012 it lead us up the garden path quite a few times with the gfs been closer to the actual outcome. Guess we will see which model has the best handle on all this over the coming days. Very interesting!!!!
  15. terrier
    Is this another 1 of those ECM garden path outputs. Still remember the one in 2012 that had us all jumping for joy at t96 and it vanished. Patience required I think.
  16. terrier
    well they are the professionals. Think it may take some time to get the cold to our shores. Sounds like a conveyor belt of low pressure systems hitting us over next 2 weeks. With us getting average temps. Let's see what the gfs and ECM says later on.
  17. terrier
    Well fergie just posted in the mod thread and the met think the easterly has 10% chance of happening with temps staying average with copious amounts of rain. Which also ties in with the extended outlook. So that takes us out to 6th of dec in there long term outlook. Until met come on board I don't see any real cold on the way.
  18. terrier
    Sorry I ment to say it looks like it isn't backed towards the end of its run. Interesting times none the less
  19. terrier
    Looks to me like the ECM is a massive outliner. It's certainly not backed by its ensembles.
  20. terrier
    Think we need to take a moment here. Yes the charts are looking better than last year. But the uk met model still isn't on board. And we're still looking at a good week at least of Atlantic depressions heading towards the uk. All these tasty looking charts are out into fi and the ECM monthly update doesn't really show anything exciting for us near average about sums it up.
  21. terrier
    I think the lack of posts this morning sums up the model output this morning. Gfs looking very wet right out to t384 think the ECM is out on its own. And ukmo looks a lot like gfs early on. Until we see any sign of cold on ukmo think we can just expect more Atlantic weather heading our way.
  22. terrier
    Don't really get people's disappointment regarding accuweather winter forecast. 15 days of snowfall for the uk during winter that's 15 days more than last year. Less storms. Sounds ok to me. At the end of the day our little Ireland is right next to the Atlantic our default weather will 9 times out of 10 be from the west. Just enjoy any cold spells we get.
  23. terrier
    Got to agree with knocker this morning very average november wearher showing on the gfs charts very wet in places.
  24. terrier
    Just noticed gav has updated his November outlook. And it covers first part of December looking like November will be another mild month. With early dec following suit. Yes we may be seeing some positives for cold. But surely we can't ignore these models that are once again going for a strong nao. Also nothing in met office updates to suggest anything cold in long term outlook. Although I know this does change.
  25. terrier
    Sounds like something for everyone there good write up,
×
×
  • Create New...