terrier

Looking very likely now that next week we will be heading to a westerly regime with rain and plenty of wind. Plus if the Azores high ridges into Southern Europe we could be looking at temps above average. So think after these pm hits this week. Think into next week if the gfs is correct we willbe seeing temps recover.

Well we have the gfs and ECM now with a much flatter pattern looks like ukmo out on its own tonight. Think after the next 72/96 hrs we may be glad of some calmer conditions.

Would love to know what piers Corbyn has been taking for his medication. He has issued his dec forecast free of charge on his page. He seems to think we are all going to see heavy crippling snowfall in next few days. And he quotes we will see feets of snow in places much worse than dec 2010. Sorry but think he is setting up here for a epic fail. But I guess this is the same guy who predicted hottest August in 100yrs and look how that turned out.

sorry but have you not seen the model runs. We have a big storm heading our way on the gfs ukmo ECM gem with damaging winds and heavy rain for much of this week not great to be honest.

yes but away from the far north we are going to see a lot of rainfall and strong winds this week on the charts. And cold heavy rain certainly doesn't float my boat.

Looking at the gfs tonight I think our main worrys aren't snowfall. Unless you live in Scotland. But the damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Not looking Good for large swaths of the uk. Stay safe guys. Looks very much like last year for this coming week on the models.

Pretty underwhelming gfs run to be honest brief northerly at t144 then we see the south westerlys move over the uk with temps returning to average also turning wet. Let's see what the ECM does.

Not a bad northerly at 156 on gfs but those cold uppers look abit narrow for snow away from the far north. Also still a week away so confidence low at moment.

Sorry can't post charts as I'm at work but the deep low on models tonight look like bringing us a lot of rain and gales next week. Not great. Scotland should see a lot of snow though. So the gritters will be busy. While most of U.K. might need a boat.

Looking at the model output this morning seems we have seen the low slightly downgraded. Also looks as we head later into next week we start to loose the polar maritime air and gets replaced with tropical maritime. So we should see temps recover to near average or slightly above. Which ties in with met outlook of a warm up into week 3/4.

Not overly enthusiastic with the model output this evening looks like a watered down version of last year. Yes there is some pm air in the mix were Scotland and the far north of the uk would see snowfall. But for the majority of us it looks like a lot of rain with gales for the foreseeable future.

Think with this 950mb low on the models we are certainly in for some intresting model watching in the days ahead. But think away from Scotland we will see some troublesome rainfall totals and with risk of storm damage not a great charts in the run upto xmas that's for sure.

Well the deep low is still across the models in one form or another this morning. With plenty of polar maritime air in the mix. But unless your on the highest peaks of the North just expect plenty of rainfall. But if your in Scotland you could see a lot of snowfall into next week.

yeah not great outlook captain. Just hope we see downgrades on the 950mb low on the model outputs. I'm feeling a sense of de ja vu of last year this evening.

Don't like the look of the 950mb low on the ECM tonight. Certainly don't want to see that in the run upto xmas heavy rain with flooding and damaging winds. Hope it starts been downgraded in the coming days.

The potential storm on the gfs 12z looks to be heading further South on this run. Hope we aren't seeing the first signs of dec 2013 again.

Just had a look over at weatheraction aka piers Corbyn. Some of the comments from his subscribers cracks me up stocked up on non perishable items torches to hand etc etc. no doubt he is predicting snowmaggedon. Think this guy is a lot like our freind mad madden. Plus I'm still waiting for Corbyns hottest August in 100yrs. Says it all really.

Not liking the look of the latest gfs run. That storm system look all to reminiscent to last dec. while many seem to be chasing the cold we can't underestimate this storm track. Hopefully it heads further north and misses the uk.

Anyone worrying about the jma update showing a similar set up to last dec need to head over and look at the netweather winter forecast. The patterns are no were near anything like last winter with the polar vortex taking further hits from wave 1 and 2 activity.

Barry the gfs has for a few days been showing the breakdown of the high to the East. And finally it seems to be coming to fruition. Perhaps now we have the Azores moving in we can hopefully reset the patterns as we move into dec. certainly expect to see a dominant atlantic spell as we move into mid dec. then if the ssw plays ball we may see a cold jan.

Looking at the gfs 6z run looks like a mild weekend coming up then we trend colder early part of next week. Then it looks as though we will end up under a cloudy drizzley high. Nothing overly cold or mild out into fi. One thing I've noticed in the last few weeks is the Cfs is wanting to bring in some very stormy and wet conditions from 2nd week of December hope this doesn't verify as it seems to have been a trend over last few weeks.

Unfortunately it seems that the gfs 6z run has no support from it's esembles. Still it's looking better that last winter.

Well we seem to be finally getting some cross model agreement from the gfs and ECM this morning of the block to the east finally breaking down. Which In turn we start to see the Azores high move into play. Which would see settled weather and cold frosty days come into play. Certainly a big improvement on last years horror runs.

Well I think we can write the first half of dec off. ECM monthly update suggest we remain under southerly winds. Keeping temps above average. Out of this year we have only had August below average. And to be honest I can't see a sudden switch of us going into a run of below average. We may be seeing some positive signs regarding ssw etc but at the moment it's all pie in the sky. I'm Thinking we could be looking at one of the warmest years on record overall.

Ok first things first the gfs run isn't great. yes the ECM is a horror show. But I urge people please look back a few pages to Tamaras great post. Plus old met mans post today. The polar vortex is nowere near as strong as last winter which we are seeing. It's only going to take further batterings from the warnings going on. And it's still autum meterologist winter is dec 21st so a long way to go yet. Give it time and our time will come. Hopefully we will see the models looking much better as we head later into dec.