terrier

My bbc weather app says heavy snow all day tommorow. Can't see it to be honest.

Looks like we will see some very low nighttime minimum over the next few nights. Not really expecting any snowfall latest bbc weather shows us dry over the weekend with maybe the odd flurry.

Think the latest tweet from Matt Hugo sums it up. Back to square one after next week. #stormy. Think like a few have said the models have picked up a new signal. And that's to fire up the jet stream again.

yes I suppose your right. Maybe I should stay away from mod thread at moment. Be nice to see some snow. But I won't hold my breath.

Well if we are to see snow showers this weekend I would make the most of it. Because the gfs ECM and to a degree the ukmo are shocking this morning. Basically rain for most of us next week now. Milder temps by Wednesday. Guess here in uk though we all see great synoptics then it all gets watered down. Certainly a blink and miss it affair next week I'm afraid.

Well how many times have we been here before. The gfs isn't great at all. Looks like rain for many next week. The easterly has all but gone. The ukmo is slightly better. But certainly looking like a blink and miss it cold spell. cant really see them flipping back again now. I would expect us to be back in a westerly flow sooner rather than later. Not great charts at all I'm afraid. Can't post charts I'm afraid as at work.

Must admit I'm with Karlos and swfc here. The gfs 12z just looks wrong short lived easterly then the high just sinks. Not a great outlook that from gfs. Much prefer the ukmo solution this evening. Let's see what ECM does later on.

but -4 doesn't really cut it for snowfall. Need at least -5 at the bare minimum. Think for low lying areas we could see a messy mix of sleet and rain. But areas such as holmfirth snake pass high bradfield yeadon should do well. But rest of us low lying I fear for if your expecting deep crisp and even.

Not sure about our chances just yet. Lon way to go. Looks like there is a milder sector showing up on the latest gfs run. Which could spell trouble should it verify. But here's hopeing to some snowfall. But until we see it at t06 I will remain cautious.

This mornings output is the reason I didn't get carried away last night. The ukmo and gfs is very messy indeed this morning with warm sectors moving into next week for the South bringing rain and sleet. Think these slider lows are fraught with danger. And I think we all need to be very cautious still. As they say if the charts look too good to be true then they probably are especially in the uk.

Don't mean to dampen the spirits here. But it looks like any precipitation will be very limited next week. Looks like a cold high setting up to me. Yes we will no doubt see some flurries. But deep crisp and even I very much doubt I'm afraid.

Not a bad gfsp this morning. Not great but better. But one thing I keep seeing is people saying snowmaggedon for uk next week. Sorry but maybe it's me but I'm struggling to see heavy widespread snowfall for uk next week on the output. Plus that warm sector on the ukmo could bring rainfall for most parts in the north.

think I will refrain from opening the Stella's at the moment frosty. Still outside the reliable timeframe at mo. But as u say looks good. But until I see these charts at t48 I'm going to remain cautious. As I've seen it go wrong so many times. My philosophy with the gfs ECM ukmo is expect nothing and hopefully they move into reality.

Regarding the gfs. Isn't it know that the 06z doesn't have as much info and balloon data input. So perhaps those eye candy runs this morning were on thin ice so to speak. Now I've heard on here many times that the 12z is a more reliable output. So perhaps it is nearer the money. To me it looks abit like a northerly toppler showing this evening. This would bring us around 5 days of cold. So much better than we saw last year. As ever Easterleys are so difficult to achive in the uk. I have seen these disappear at t48. Anyway onto the ECM see what it thinks.

can't we just wait till the full run is out first. Looks fine to me so far.

Some nice charts this morning. Gfs gfsp and ECM all seem in agreement about something colder heading for our shores. But still a huge slice of caution from myself. Until we see the met office come on board I will remain sceptical for now. Especially were a easterly is concerned.

yes sorry not woken up yet lol

Well we have a totally different outcome on all models this morning out into fi. But the ECM looks best of the bunch at 240hrs. But as we know that's day 10. So a lot can change before then.

Some peachy looking charts from the gfs tonight. But a word of caution. The uk met update doesn't sound anything like what the gfs has just churned out. Until we see them come onboard take with a huge pinch of salt. As Ian said yesterday as we move into February the form horse is for westerly South westerly winds to dominate. And seen as though they have so far called winter spot on I would be very cautious indeed of gfs eye candy.

Sorry can't post charts as at work. But those winds on the gfs p look horrendous. Please hope those downgrade. Gfs looking better for cold at t150 but think any snowfall will be a transient affair away from the highest hill. With gales and heavy rain turning any falls into a slush feast.

Can't see any snowfall for yorkshire tommorow to be honest. Looks like a Wales Midlands event and Ireland scotland.

Well just catching up after a busy Sunday. Still seems that the gfs wants to bring in another vicious Storm mid week. But before then it seems like some surprise snowfall for many. And not just the usual suspects. The one thing I did notice tonight was the update from Ian regarding the ec32 day update going for w/sw winds as we move into feb. Not great but I guess still time for a change.

Regarding the current output we have the gfs showing a 935mb low for next week. But it does seem as though the ECM isn't intrested at the moment. So I would say possibly the gfs is once again over doing the low pressure system. Now looking at next week we have plenty of -6 to -7 uppers in a cold pm flow which I would suggest will bring some heavy snowfall say North of Birmingham. And regarding the latest ec32 dayer Matt Hugo has stated not much confidence in it after week 2. So all to play for I would say.

Regarding Matt Hugo tweet regarding ec32 update he says he doesn't trust it especially after week 2. All to play for. Certainly looking at the gfs run plenty snowfall Midlands northwards next week I would think with plenty of pm air in the mix. Just hope that storm potential downgrades a 935mb low wouldn't be good at all.

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.