terrier

Slightly off topic do apologise mods. But intresting tweet from Ian Ferguson this morning. Forecast upto xmas seems good. But then goes onto tweet much colder and below average into new year with servere weather possible. Now read into that what u will.

Gfs not great again this morning. ECM and we are once again looking at fi for some eye candy. not a great outlook overall.

To be honest and we're all guilty of it we get hung up over a t264 chart and tend to run with it. Think if we just stuck to the reliable timeframe of t96 possibly t144 then perhaps we wouldn't see all the negativity at times. Yes the xmas period might downgrade over the next few days. But next time I'm going to stick to the reliable. And wait for the fi charts to hopefully come into view. Anyway onto the ECM although I might be out of the reliable timeframe just now lol.

Even if the xmas cold blast fails to deliver it's not end of world. We have wave 1 & 2 activity happening a ssw warming looking more and more likely. And I think not long into new year till we see some stunning charts. Lots of winter to come yet guys.

Well after reading met office update I would maybe think they have discounted the ECM 00z run. With talk of snow to lower ground in the north. So I would hint at if your say Newcastle northwards you may very well see some snow in the not too distant future. Maybe rest of us might have to wait just abit longer.

Think we should await this evenings output and see if the 12z moves towards the 06z output. But it does seem like at the moment the European model is leading the way. And we have to remember this is the top model in the verification stats. So guess it's a waiting game again. Let's see where we are tonight. Still don't think this will be resolved until the weekend at the earliest. But the feeling I get is that both the gfs and gfsp will move towards the ECM outlook in the coming days.

Looking at the gfs 06z run now. And it seems the met office are quite correct in not shouting anything out regarding cold. Think we're going to end up with a half way house here.

Think until the ECM comes on board we should be very sceptical. The gfsp should in my opinion ignored this morning it just looks totally out of kilter. ECM seems to be following a west based nao which isn't great for the uk. Maybe the gfs gfsp will move towards the ECM towards the weekend.

Well now I'm not so sure what model to belive just watched bbc news 24 further outlook and they say cold xmas eve xmas day before milder atlantic air moves in Boxing Day. I'm wondering if there in house models are painting something very different to what we're seeing from the gfs runs. #confused.

sorry but how's it thrown a spanner in the works.? We're still talking 8 days away from any pattern change long way to go yet.

Yes the ECM may not be as good as the gfs. But think about this time last year when we was all getting excited about a watered down northerly on Boxing Day. Think if we had been offered these charts last year we would of snapped is hand off. So let's all not get too hung up and enjoy the ride. And if it does all Pete tong we still got jan feb March to go.

Well the gfs 12z was a nice run I must say. But I'm going to keep my feet firmly on the ground. Seen these go wrong at t48 never mind 10 days away. Think a huge slice of caution is probably the best advice I can give.

the gfs 06z run click on northern hemisphere outlook.

Slightly further out but the polar vortex looks to be heading towards North America. Now surely that wouldn't be a great sign for the uk.

don't think it's nailed on yet to be honest. Yes possible but certainly far from nailed on.

Think we all need to take a step back to be honest. Talk of cobra meetings taking place are well wide of the mark. Looking at the gfs 06z away from scotland we are looking at nothing much apart from a few fleeting cold snaps. Yes we may well be seeing a northern hemisphere pattern change taking place. But snowfall this side of xmas is very rare for the uk apart from dec 2010 of coarse.And until the mo come on board we should all be very sceptical of the eye candy runs in fi. So lets see what the next few days bring. And if were still seeing similar output around next monday then we maybe onto something. Until then i will watch ian fergusons updates with intrest regarding the met office musings.

Well to me the gfs 6z looks a rather messy picture. Away from Scotland it looks a picture of rain and sleet. Think we should all take notice of Ian fergusons latest update to be honest.

Some very nice looking output this morning. Seems like the ECM now wants to join the gfs cold party. But im still going to air on the side of caution. Think we need to see the met office come on board. Until then let's hope these charts move towards the reliable timeframe. Because here in good old Blighty if it can go wrong it probably will. Some very nice looking output this morning. Seems like the ECM now wants to join the gfs cold party. But im still going to air on the side of caution. Think we need to see the met office come on board. Until then let's hope these charts move towards the reliable timeframe. Because here in good old Blighty if it can go wrong it probably will.

Well normally it seems to be the ECM that leads us all up the cold garden path. But is it the gfs that's taking us that root this evening. Guess we will find out over next few days. But with the met output changing its wording today with a milder outlook. I'm wondering if there glosea model and all there in house data are showing something along the lines of the ECM. Next few days should give us our answer.

Let's just remember with the charts if they look too good to be true then they probably are. If it does all come crashing down towards the weekend don't get too disheartend. Still plenty model output to come over next few months.

At least the output is better than last year. ECM keeps us dry and settled. Unlike the storms of last December. Think a lot of people would take that chart that got badly flooded.

Intresting that the far reaches of the gfs 6z run are showing real cold in scandi. Let's see if the models start to show some hlb in future output.

We stick with the westerly pattern on the output this morning with us flipping between tm and pm shots. Pretty underwhelming to be honest. Think until we see the nao going negative we're going to struggle to get the eye candy charts into the reliable timeframe.

Well after this weekend looks like we will be seeing temps recover. Looks like the Azores high will move into Europe settling things down and becoming dryer and milder. Only the gem wants a northerly next week. But both the gfs ECM want to move us into a milder period. Which ties in well with Ian fergusons comments yesterday.

So looks like average to above on the charts this morning. Not great output if it's cold and snow your after. Especially with the Azores moving into Southern Europe. This could move the temps into the above average category. Think until we see the ssw take effect we will just have to grin and bear it. In the words of frosty mild mush is making a comeback I'm afraid.