terrier

Got a horrible feeling that the gfs has picked up a new signal tonight. Looks very similar to what we have been hearing from the met. But guess we will know more in the morning.

So is the gfs picking up a new signal. Not so sure but guess we will see which way the models go Tommorow. Even if the latest gfs is seeing things differently we still look at a 5 day cold spell which ain't bad at all.

Great ecm in the reliable timeframe brings in the cold quicker and follows the ukmo. Think the gfs looks out of kilter at the moment. Main thing is it looks a lot drier for the flooded areas.

If the gfs ukmo and ecm start singing from the same hym sheet in the days ahead I would expect a change from the met. But don't forget they have much more data than us mere mortals. So to expect them to suddenly jump to cold on a few gfs runs is slightly over the top I feel. Let's see if the same is showing by the weekend then maybe just maybe we might be onto something.

Just caught up with the gfs 6z what another great run even upgrades on the 00z. But I still don't think this is a given yet. Yes it's going to turn colder. But let's not forget these charts are at 9/10 day range away yet. Think a lot depends on what that Azores decides to do. Hopefully we see the ecm and ukmo move towards the gfs later today. But at the moment keeping feet firmly on the ground as we've seen these types of sypnotics go wrong at t72.

Much better looking gfs 00z this morning and not a bad looking ecm either. Just remember it's only one run though. Think we will see some more wild runs in days ahead. But remember if it starts looking better don't tell your family that's fatal lol.

Well looks very much like a 48 hour cold snap next week before the westerlys move in once again. Good call s. Murr looks along way to any substantial cold spell on the models tonight. Looks like the pv is setting up were we don't want it. Hopefully glacier point is onto something with his predictions but I won't hold my breath.

Well it seems once again the ecm moves towards the gfs outcome how many times have we seen this over the last few winters. Looks like the ecm over amplifies everything again. Seems like the meto are following the gfs over the ukmo which shows a brief cold shot. Which ties in with there update overnight. Let's hope we may see a better output in maybe a weeks time when we should start to see signs in the models of what glacier point has been alluding too.

Well a rather uninspiring set of output this morning ecm seems to have dropped last nights idea. Which isn't a surprise really. Hopefully gp is onto something with his torpedo.

Let's see if we get cross model support before we all get giddy over one ecm output. As we all know it's lead us up the garden path on more than one occasion. As I still remember that famous ecm.

So not a great ecm tonight which seems to move slightly towards the gfs outcome. I think we will see a half way house situation here. From mild rain to cold rain not a great outlook for us here in the north with more floods looking likely.

Well great looking ukmo tonight but not liking the gfs 12z looks wet and windy for many unless u live up in Scotland. Not great for areas round here. Think in this situation we will probably see a half way house between the gfs an ecm which often seems to be the case.

Well the ecm 32 dayer is very underwhelming again. Looking at the gfs 00z nothing really showing cold wise. Just more sw winds and rain. But at least today's the longest day so our days get longer after today. Hopefully we might see something better mid Jan. But I won't hold my breath. Happy Christmas to everyone.

Well the gfs06z maintains the theme of very mild uppers. Looks mild or exceptionally mild right out to new year. Some of those upper air temps we should be seein in June July not December. Hopefully the mjo can do us some favours bringing down the ao pattern. Hopefully be some better looking output after the new year.

Well we see a brief pm incursion on the gfs 6z so it would feel a lot more seasonal into xmas week. But looking further ahead from some of the models and longer range forecasts it seems along road to any substantial cold. And as we all now even with a ssw it doesn't guarantee us cold.

Well the ecm shows a little promise at day 10 but we know at that range we are Looking at a big straw clutch. Think we need to see some big wave activity to disrupt the pv think hopefully we will see a ssw around early Jan setting us up for a colder end to Jan Feb time which met office seem to be hinting at. In the nearer term it seems a lot more rain and gales to contend with on tonight's output

So the ECM still isn't backing the gfs idea. And with ECM been top performance model I would expect the gfs to be wrong. And reading the latest ec 32 day update from knocker it does seem like Dec could be a zonal westerly based month. But as ever time will tell.

Well after looking at the gfs runs and ECM over last few days it does seem for the next 7/10 days were looking at south westerly dominated weather. Cohen latest update is not great reading for much of Dec. Which Ian Ferguson was alluding too a few weeks ago. I know the charts can change quickly but I think it's looking like a long road to cold. Yes I know the gfs was showing a easterly last night on the pub run but it had no support at all so think it could be a waiting game for a few weeks yet for a proper cold blast.

Well both the gfs and ECM show something abit more seasonal around the 20th of November this morning with wintry showers pushing into the northwest. But I can't help think about what Ian Ferguson said the other day regarding Nov Dec. Guess more runs needed from the models.

Well Ian Fergusons update on the model threat seems very bullish about a mild winter ahead. Don't think I've ever seen Ian so confident think they must have a lot of faith in the glosea model this year. Think this winter could be a record breaking but not for cold and snow. That if I'm reading his comments correctly.

Well the gfs and ECM at day 10 are pretty much worlds apart. Yes the gfs has been consistent with a colder theme in fi. But isn't the ECM the top performance model out of the two. And with the met not really interested in a colder outlook at the moment I would think that the ECM is closer to the outcome as things stand.

Well it finally looks like we may have something to look forward too as mid November approaches. Certainly some eye candy showing up on latest gfs run but at the moment its deepest fi so let's see what the met office think over the coming week. Certainly seems like interesting times ahead.

Think with this strong El Niño we will see a wet mild Dec Jan which the met office seem confident on at this point in time. And at least it might stop the express and madden posting such garbage every winter

Think regarding the telegraph they have been reading too many doomsday express headlines. Yes the updates from the met office don't look too bad regarding cold at the moment. But as we know all this can change at drop of a hat.

well that's killed this thread knocker lol.!!!! still think we may see a few colder blasts this winter compared to last winter. But still going for a milder winter overall. As we all know that is our default winter weather in the UK 9 times out of 10 anyway.