Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

terrier

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,184

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by terrier

  1. terrier
    Looking at the high res models now. And can't see anything but a rain maybe slushy event for many of us. Think obviously the high peaks and highest parts of the Pennines may do ok. But for anything below a 1500ft looks like a wet rainy mess.
  2. terrier
    Wow a 1cm slushy deposit think I better rush out to asda and stock up on bread and milk. Seriously though that sounds garbage. Hopefully this isn't a new trend in winters ahead.
  3. terrier
    You can almost guarantee that the ecm tonight will show what the gfs was showing in earlier runs now that the gfs 12z has moved towards the ecm in its early time frames.
  4. terrier
    If the gfs 06z downgrades the low any further I think we can forget about any snowfall all together. Seems like the mo aren't really seeing anything snowise looking at latest update. Yes colder next week with some frosts. But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think.
  5. terrier
    Think model fatigue has set in for a lot of people to be honest. Yes the gfs and ecm show colder conditions next week with some scattered wintry showers in coastal areas. But snowmaggedon and deep freeze it is not. Personally high pressure setting up throughout the model output isn't a bad thing and will allow areas to dry out.
  6. terrier
    Looking at the gfs 06z certainly looks like the south could see some snowfall over the weekend with night frost. So certainly would feel raw over the snow fields. Seems like the ecm has also moved towards the gfs output this morning. So Midlands southwards I would say look best placed at the moment. We're as us further north look like remaining dry but I would settle for that after all this rain we have endured.
  7. terrier
    Another day another set of underwhelming output. Gfs ecm show some polar maritime shots. But these away from highest hills will deliver at best some slush. Looks like for many of us cold rain with gales. I would settle now for some high pressure sypnotics just to dry areas out.
  8. terrier
    Well another day another set of poor output the gfs looks wet and windy especially further south into the weekend and into next week. The ecm shows promise but once again it's day 9/10 days away. Think after the update yesterday in the strat thread from Ian ferguson my hope for this winter are over. Think now I would like to see some settled weather in the output just to give us a break from the Atlantic onslaught.
  9. terrier
    Well the ukmo gfs and Ecm look disappointing yet again this morning. Wet with more gales for at least the next 7 days. I know Ian f says things may settle down later into Feb with some frosts. But I think it's time for me to thrown the dam towel in think the writing was on the wall this winter as soon as we saw the super strong El Niño.
  10. terrier
    So once again we are looking towards days 9 and 10 on the ecm. And how many times have we been here this winter. Looking at tonight output we can write the first week of Feb off as wet and windy again. Not holding out much hope now for final month of winter. As Steve murr has said looks like another bust for this winter. Just hope we arent going to see this trend continue in the winters ahead.
  11. terrier
    Can't really see any cheer on the gfs 12z tonight more storms next week and heavy rain. Looking into the realms of fi we have a huge pv reforming. Brutal cold in the states firing up the jet straight across the Atlantic straight at the uk. Not convinced Feb will rescue this winter to be honest. Let's see what ecm has to say.
  12. terrier
    Maybe so frosty but that's not unusual for Scotland. And looking at the output we're all back in milder air tomorrow. With more rain and gales next week. The point I was making is these charts showing colder nationwide are always at day 10 and we always seem to be chasing that pot of gold in the charts which never seem to get any closer.
  13. terrier
    So once again we are looking at day 10 charts for something colder. How many times has the gfs and ecm teased us at day 10 this winter. If the models are flip flopping at t144 what hope do we have at day 10.
  14. terrier
    Got to admit I'm in the nick Sussex camp this evening. Pretty underwhelming output from the ecm and gfs again. No Scandinavia high. Or any form of blocking over Greenland. Yes Scotland and the high peaks may do ok from what's been shown in the output. But away from there we are looking a cold rain with the odd frost and sleet mix thrown in.
  15. terrier
    Don't think we can discard the gfs at all in my opinion. It was a lot closer than the euros on the last cold spell a few weeks ago. The euros kept wanting to put us in the freezer yet the gfs was showing a short lived colder spell. Which the gfs came up trumps on that occasion. Not saying it will this time but think we need to see model consistency from the big 3 first. And until that time think to discard the gfs output would be foolish.
  16. terrier
    So gfs not showing a northerly next week. I'm wary of the ecm and gem this morning. Because I seem to remember the last cold blast the gfs been out on its own but in the end proved closer to the mark. More runs needed once again I think seems to be a theme this winter.
  17. terrier
    So the ecm and gem want to bring a short lived northerly next wed Thursday but caution required as the gfs wants none of it as such. And as we saw a few weeks ago the gfs was showing the correct outcome when some of the other models were churning out eye candy runs. Don't get me wrong the ecm and gem could be right but I'm wary after last time.
  18. terrier
    Another pretty drab output again this morning from the models with a westerly pattern across the output. Not a great update from the ec32 day output. Yes the gfs and ecm do show some short lived polar maritime shots but doesn't really cut it for mid winter.
  19. terrier
    Well I think a 1000 words say it all this morning with the lack of comments. The gfs is mild throughout with this week looking particularly wet once again. Ukmo and ecm not much better pv looks as strong as ever. I know Steve murr mentioned last week he thought if we didn't see anything soon it could be another abysmal winter. And looking at the output looks like he may just be right.
  20. terrier
    Well the gfs is an Absolute nightmare tonight. But it's been flopping about like a fish out of water for last few runs. Still think we will see better charts as we head into Feb. Anyone fretting over us been under a south westerly flow until March I suggest read Ian fergusons update a few pages back. Very interesting time ahead come Feb I feel. And I'm sure we will see some nice charts from the models early Feb onwards.
  21. terrier
    Well ecm is flat as a pancake this morning something it seems to have picked up on last few runs. Although the gfs shows some strat warming think too much onus is been put on this bringing us colder weather it is by know means a guarantee to bring cold to our shores. We could quite easy end up in milder air also from a ssw event.
  22. terrier
    Well the charts this morning are all abit of a let down if cold your after. Looks more like spring across the model output this morning. Hopefully might see better runs this evening.
  23. terrier
    Well looks that's it. Bless my niece tonight though singing frozen let it go. First time she's ever seen snowfall. What a great night how wrong was i taking her. Sledging tomorrow happy days.
  24. terrier
    Well we have about an inch here think that's about it now looking at the radar. But what a great evening happy to be totally wrong.
  25. terrier
    Well I was totally wrong will hold my hands up. Looks like another hour I think then it will all be over. Been a good night though.
×
×
  • Create New...