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terrier

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Everything posted by terrier

  1. terrier
    Well the lack of comments on the gfs12z and ukmo tonight speaks volumes I think.
  2. terrier
    How can many a winter forecast be a bust after 2 days.? Oh dear. Anyway back to the models another poor set of output. But like I said last night we have another 12 weeks of winter to go. No panic from me.
  3. terrier
    I really don't understand the doom and gloom tonight. Yes the gfs ecm and ukmo are showing milder temps next week. But this has always been suggested by the met office. We are only on the 1st of Dec. We still have another 12 weeks of winter to go. Plenty of twist and turns ahead and I'm sure we will see a switch to colder weather later into Dec. Which none of the models will be even picking up on yet. Keep calm and carry on. We certainly aren't seeing the jet stream barrelling through the uk like last year.
  4. terrier
    Well not great model output this morning ukmo looks awful if it cold your after. Most models do show westerly winds moving in next week so feeling mild. But remember the charts only go out to the 11th of Dec. So still some way off mid Dec. Even if Dec does end up zonal we still have Jan/ Feb for winter prospects. At least we aren't seeing a strong jet stream smashing into the uk. Which ruined xmas for a lot of people last year. I'm sure what the ukmo gfs and ecm are showing are great viewing for them.
  5. terrier
    Think some people need to relax a little. The gfs and ecm model only go out to t240 which takes us to the 9th of December. The professional amongst us have always suggested we will see a westerly spell of weather. The models wont yet be picking up any signals for mid December. My advice would be take a week to 10 days break from the models then come back. I'm sure as we enter mid December the worm will turn.
  6. terrier
    Well I think the output this morning isn't that bad plenty of cold underneath that high pressure. I think this winter could well be under the dry but cold theme. Plenty more model runs to come though between now and mid Dec.
  7. terrier
    Think some people need to relax a little bit. Yes the gfs06z isn't a great run. But I'm sure I've just checked my calendar and it's only the 25th of November. 7 days is a long way in model output a lot can and will change. With the noises coming from the professionals on this site I think as we enter winter proper we could see some nice charts cropping up. Just a case of hanging in there and not to over analyse every signal model run.
  8. terrier
    Looks like gfs is a little isolated in its output at moment Ukmo looks very similar to ecm at t120. Interesting ecm tonight.
  9. terrier
    So buckle in guys and girls here comes the gfs12z. Will we see a shift towards the ecm.? If I had to place a bet my money would be a shift towards the ecm from this morning. But if it does head towards the ecm let's remember we still have a long way to go this winter.
  10. terrier
    Yeah very good point. And that's why I'm very sceptical of the gfs output at mo. That update sounds like ecm is more favourable at this moment in time.
  11. terrier
    Personally I think on tonight's output we will see the gfs12z move towards the ecm evolution. The ecm will then move towards the gfs06z output. And as we get nearer the time we will see a half way house situation between the output.
  12. terrier
    I would be very sceptical of what the gfs output is showing at the moment. We all know that the ecm is the top performance model in the verification stats. Until we get some cross model support than I would take the gfs with a massive bucket load of salt.
  13. terrier
    Well that sounds fine to me. Surface cold to bring ground temp down. Then snow mid Dec onwards. Think that quiet a good update to be honest. Hopefully glosea model is seeing something similar.
  14. terrier
    Cracking end to the gfs06z that certainly would bring snow to the uk. But let's remember those charts are 14days away. We are only at mid November so plenty twist and turns to come this winter I feel.
  15. terrier
    Some really nice looking charts from the gfs tonight deep into fi. And let's not get too hung up by 1 run of the gfs. Yes the charts tonight are nice to see. But don't take them as gospel because as we all know that will only lead to disappointments. Anyway onto the ecm and see what that throws at us.
  16. terrier
    So the gfs moves towards the ecm which always was to be expected. Ecm is the top preforming model anyway. So it looks like the uk will be sat under high pressure next week with some chilly days. Then not sure we're we go after that we're kind of in no mans land. To be continued this one I think.
  17. terrier
    So its the ecm ukmo versus the gfs. Think the gfs will start to climb down in future updates. That Russian high certainly needs removing it will do some serious damage to the Scandinavia snowcover. And as we all know that high could take some serious moving. It wouldn't be first time its scuppered many an early cold pattern.
  18. terrier
    Looking at the output today it's does seem like we're heading towards a west based nao which isn't always great news for us. But as alluded to above by glacier point this maybe not a bad point to start winter.
  19. terrier
    All pretty standard fair then Ian for late autumn early winter. Hopefully the glosea model will continue with its blocking theme into Dec. But as ever we could be on the wrong side of any blocking bringing just slightly below temps for Dec. All looks very standard at moment. Don't think that Russian high is helping matters regarding our tiny island.
  20. terrier
    A very sobering update from Ian this morning. I'm wondering if the models behind closed doors are seeing something we are not in the models. Hopefully we aren't gonna see the dreaded west based nao setting up. But as we know things can change rapidly for our tiny island. Hopefully the gfs ecm ukmo gem will move us closer to the eye candy charts at some point and not at the 10 day range as seems to be the case at the moment.
  21. terrier
    Looking like the gfs06z is following on from Earlier output. Looking decidedly chilly from Thursday onwards with some snow on northern hills. Looks like we may well be entertaining a chilly cold phase past this milder interlude this week.
  22. terrier
    Well I don't think we can complain with the model output tonight from the ukmo right through to the ecm they are all painting a similar picture. And if it cold frosty with some snow then we are certainly on the right path. Certainly poles apart to this time last year.
  23. terrier
    Some very tasty looking output tonight especially the ukmo at 144. Gfs none too shabby either. And with the updates we are getting from Ian f and the signs from the models we don't get too see I think we could be looking at some very nice fi charts in the not too distant future. Exciting times ahead if you like the cold.
  24. terrier
    I that's the one lol
  25. terrier
    Well it's raining in Huddersfield. Wet night ahead i think.
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