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J10

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  1. J10
    So this is the final full blog for Glastonbury 2015, ahead of the gates opening tomorrow.

    [b]Daily forecasts [/b]

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253786:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 24.JPG]
    Mostly Fine and Dry with a small ridge of High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK. Sunny to start, a bit more cloudy in the afternoon. Temps low 20s,

    [b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253785:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 48.JPG]
    Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday a ridge over Southern UK, and Low pressure still away off in the Atlantic. A but warmer than Wednesday with temps low 20s but perhaps hitting 22/23c by mid afternoon, cloud amounts possibly a bit more than Wednesday.

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253782:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253784:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253798:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 72.png]
    As has been suggested for a number of days turning a little more unsettled with some rain edging in during the morning and this continuing through the afternoon. However not likely to be that heavy, but enough to wet the ground. 2mm currently suggested. Sunshine is set to be very limited, with temps high teens/low 20s.

    [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
    [attachment=253781:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253780:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253797:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 96.png]
    Unsettled for Northern parts of the UK with Higher Pressure for the south of the UK, so a bit mixed with a risk of some showers at times, but with some sunny intervals likely as well. Temps 19c/20c again.

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253778:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253779:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253796:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 120.png]
    A little more unsettled again, as some rain/showers spread in from the west, current indications show not that much rainfall however some ensembles make it that little bit wetter. Again with the chance of some sunshine at times, temps a bit cooler into the high teens.

    [b]Ground Conditions [/b]
    Currently not many problems at all, the rain on Friday and perhaps Sunday may dampen the ground a little, and some prone spots may see some mud, but no huge problems are currently expected.

    [b]Rainfall Totals [/b]
    [attachment=253806:Total Rainfall.gif]
    The latest GFS suggests a total of 4mm of rainfall for the festival. Although some ensembles are a bit higher, perhaps as much as 10mm but even that is not too bad.

    [b]Ensembles[/b]

    [b]Pressure [/b]
    [attachment=253794:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253804:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 12Hz.png]
    The pressure drops a little Friday and then again for Sunday and more especially into Next week.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    [b]Temps [/b]
    [attachment=253792:Ensemble Temp 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253805:Ensemble Temp 23 June 12Hz.png]
    The temps rise steadily until Friday and then drop back somewhat over the weekend.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]
    Some rain expected for Friday and perhaps a little over the weekend, more especially for Sunday, some runs showers some moderate/heavy rain into Monday
    [attachment=253793:Ensemble Rain 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253803:Ensemble Rain 23 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Hopefully it will be a great Glastonbury for all of you lucky people going. To answer the obvious question to anyone asking do I take my wellies, off course you do, but also takes your suncream to cover all eventualities.

    If I could be a little self indulgent If you have enjoyed these blogs, please click on the like button below.
  2. J10
    Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather.

    [b]Run up to festival[/b]
    The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours.
    Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet.

    [b]Daily forecasts [/b]

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    As per recent forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a ridge of High Pressure over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
    brightness in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.
    [attachment=253704:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253705:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253711:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 48.png]

    [b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b]
    Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday a ridge over Southern UK, and Low pressure still away off in the Atlantic. Perhaps more in the way of sunshine developing compared to Wednesday, and felling warm when it does so, Temps low 20s, perhaps 22c-23c by mid to late afternoon, quite possibly the best weather day of the festival.
    [attachment=253703:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253702:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253710:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253717:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253714:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 72.png]

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    This was always forecast to be the dodgy day and so it continues. However the rain amounts are now expected to be fairly small, and shouldn't cause any real long term problems. Temps a little cooler high teens / low 20s, and rather cloud and damp for the most part.
    [attachment=253700:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253701:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253709:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253709:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253716:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 96.png] [attachment=253713:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 96.png]

    [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
    Any overnight rain should clear quite quickly with a ridge of high pressure edging in. However there is still the risk of a shower at times, but not really causing any issues, temps in the high teens with sunshine amounts very difficult to determine at this stage.
    [attachment=253699:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253698:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253708:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253715:UKMO 22nd June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253712:UKMO 22nd June 12Hz + 120.png]

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    Still uncertainty with regard Sunday, with lower pressure than for recent days, as a result there is the risk of some rain./showers at times. However total amounts of rainfall not likely to be problematic. Temps low 20s and feeling warm, especially in any brightness/sunshine.
    [attachment=253696:GFS 22nd June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253697:GFS 22nd June 12Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253707:ECM 22nd June 00Hz + 144.png]

    [b]Ground Conditions [/b]
    Monday's rain has softened things a bit, but not too many problems as of yet.

    At this stage a little rain is expected on Friday and as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but still worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.

    [b]Ensembles[/b]

    [b]Pressure [/b]
    The pressure drops a little Friday and then again for Sunday.
    [attachment=253695:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253722:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Temps [/b]
    The temps rise steadily until Friday and then drop back a little.
    [attachment=253693:Ensemble Temp 22 June 06Hz.png]
    [attachment=253720:Ensemble Temp 22 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]
    Looking mostly dry during the festival, with rainfall after the festival.
    [attachment=253694:Ensemble Rain 22 June 06Hz.png]
    [attachment=253721:Ensemble Rain 22 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Dry and fine for Wednesday and Thursday, damp and Cloudy on Friday. Still uncertain for the weekend probably mostly dry on Saturday with some showers at worse. while showers are possible on Sunday.
  3. J10
    This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works.

    [b]Run up to festival[/b]

    Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day.
    Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west.

    [b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
    sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.

    [attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG]

    [b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
    Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.

    [attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG]

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm.

    Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited.

    There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.

    [attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG]

    [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
    A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday.

    Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.

    [attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG]
    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday.

    Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain

    [attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG]

    [b]Ground Conditions [/b]
    The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.

    At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.

    [b]Ensembles [/b]
    [attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png]
    Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday.

    [attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png]
    After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday.

    [attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png]
    Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part.

    [b][b]Summary [/b][/b]

    The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.
  4. J10
    This is the 10th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    [b]Run up to festival[/b]
    [attachment=253459:ECM 20th June 00Hz.png]

    [attachment=253510:GFS 19th June 00Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253509:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253508:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 48.JPG]
    Monday remains rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but circa 5-10mm is expected.
    Tuesday looks drier as pressure builds from the west.

    [b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]

    [attachment=253490:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253491:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253507:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 96.JPG]

    [attachment=253458:ECM 20th June 00Hz +96.png] [attachment=253540:ECM 20th June 12Hz +96.png][attachment=253453:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 96.png]
    Low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak areas/ridge of High Pressure builds over the UK, giving benign settled conditions with a little sunshine at times, Mostly dry temps low 20s.

    [b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=253493:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253492:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253506:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253539:ECM 20th June 12Hz +120.png]
    Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.

    [b][attachment=253452:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253456:ECM 20th June 00Hz +144.png][/b]

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads for the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK. Temps high teens perhaps touching 20 later in the day, Sunshine amounts currently looks very limited.

    There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.

    [attachment=253494:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253496:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253505:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 144.JPG]
    [attachment=253451:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 144.png] [attachment=253456:ECM 20th June 00Hz +144.png][attachment=253536:ECM 20th June 12Hz +144.png]

    [size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size]
    A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with the risk of a few showers, some of these could be heavy but it could remain dry. Temps again Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.

    [attachment=253498:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253497:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253504:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 168.JPG]
    [attachment=253455:ECM 20th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253538:ECM 20th June 12Hz +168.png]

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with low pressure deepening with the risk of some rain/showers at times. Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain

    [attachment=253500:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253499:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253503:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 192.JPG]
    [attachment=253454:ECM 20th June 00Hz +192.png] [attachment=253537:ECM 20th June 12Hz +192.png]

    [b]Ground Conditions [/b]
    The rain on Monday which could be around 10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.

    At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the showery potential for the weekend.

    [b]Ensembles [/b]
    [b][size=3]Pressure[/size][/b]
    Pretty steady to around 1020mb to around Friday but then dropping back a little over the weekend.
    [attachment=253519:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 00Hz.png]][attachment=253515:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253512:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 12Hz.png]

    [size=3][b]Temperature[/b][/size]
    Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend.
    [attachment=253517:Ensemble Temp 20 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253516:Ensemble Temp 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253511:Ensemble Temp 20 June 12Hz.png]

    [size=3][b]Rainfall [/b][/size]
    After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some rain on Friday and over the weekend. Generally drier than recently suggested.

    [attachment=253518:Ensemble Rain 20 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253514:Ensemble Rain 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253513:Ensemble Rain 20 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary [/b]
    The models have really been playing with us lately, initial suggestions of a dry festival replaced by something far more unsettled. Yesterday saw the first step back and today continues this trend.

    I think I will scrap the dust bowl - mudbath meter, due to its wild swings and the far of jinxing the recent improvement in the weather prospect for Glastonbury.

    (It would have been the just the right side of 5.0)

    [b]Note [/b]

    Tomorrows blog will be published much earlier, due to other commitments.
  5. J10
    This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    So a definite trend towards a wet festival. Is today the day to stall or reverse this trend.

    [b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO [b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][/b]

    [b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
    [attachment=253397:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253404:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253410:ECM 19th June 00Hz +72.png] [attachment=253425:ECM 19th June 12Hz +72.png] [attachment=253406:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 72.gif] [attachment=253427:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 72.gif]

    The General theme remains the same. Low Pressure to the North East, with a wave moving east across southern areas of the UK probably during the morning, this is likely to give some rainfall for Glastonbury, although the 12Hz run pushes this a little further south.

    A ridge of High Pressure builds over Tuesday, keeping things dry and helping to dry the ground after Mondays rain.
    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253398:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253403:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253405:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253409:ECM 19th June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253424:ECM 19th June 12Hz +120.png] [attachment=253426:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 120.gif]

    Today there is better agreement of a ridge of High Pressure over Southern areas, with the rain reserved for Northern parts of the UK, so looking dry for Glastonbury. Max Temps low 20s.

    The fronts to the west continue to edge closer to the UK on Thursday, but the ridge holding for the moment, keeping things mostly dry, temps again low 20s.
    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253399:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253402:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253408:ECM 19th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253423:ECM 19th June 12Hz +168.png]

    Friday continues to look the problematic day, there is currently decent agreement between the models that some rainfall is likely to move east during the day, most likely in the morning. The operational GFS runs show the heaviest of the rainfall further north, with moderate rain for Glastonbury in the morning, with showers for the afternoon. Pinning the details on this has a major impact on conditions for the weekend. Temps high teens / low 20s.

    Operational runs today have reduced the rainfall projection for next Friday compared to yesterdays runs.

    Saturday looks mostly dry at this stage, with some sort of ridge of high pressure. Temps mid to high teens.

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253400:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253401:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253407:ECM 19th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253422:ECM 19th June 12Hz +216.png]
    A lot of uncertainty for Sunday at the moment, with it looking rather unsettled, ECM has it quite wet and GFS perhaps a little drier.

    [b]2. Ensembles [/b]

    [size=3][b]Pressure[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253414:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253412:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253415:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png]
    These show average pressure of 1020mb dropping back on Monday as Forecast, and then rising back up to 1020mb, so better confidence of a more settled Wednesday and better runs than yesterday suggested. Pressure then dropping back a little on Friday to just above 1010mb, before perhaps recovering a bit of the weekend. It is noticeable that the operational runs for both 06Hz and 12Hz are towards the more settled of the runs.

    [size=3][b]Rainfall [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253416:Ensemble Rain 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253411:Ensemble Rain 19 June 06Hz.png][attachment=253417:Ensemble Rain 19 June 12Hz.png]

    These continue to show a number of ensembles going for periods of rain during the festival, although Monday does look a little drier. Again the operational GFS runs (06Hz and 12Hz) are drier then the ensembles runs.

    [b][size=3]Temps [/size][/b]
    [attachment=253418:Ensemble Temp 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253413:Ensemble Temp 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253419:Ensemble Temp 19 June 12Hz.png]

    These show cool weather on Monday, and then temps steadily rising until Friday, reaching +8c to +10c (850Hpa) by Friday, and then staying similar over the weekend, so looking warmer than was the case yesterday.

    [b]Rainfall (GFS Operational)[/b]

    Rain expected Monday, and then some on Friday, but amounts not as great as suggested yesterday.

    [b][attachment=253440:Rhgfs8414.gif] [attachment=253439:Rhgfs14414.gif] [attachment=253438:Rhgfs18614.gif] [attachment=253437:Rhgfs22514.gif][/b]






    [b]Summary [/b]
    A mass of conflicting data tonight, however lets start with the good news, the operational GFS runs are much better than yesterday, in terms of being drier. It is looking more settled generally than was the case yesterday for Wednesday, which is now looking mostly dry. Also it looking a bit warmer for the festival, with temps in the drier weather reaching the 20s at time. There is now a glimmer of hope for the festival being decent, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

    However there are still concerns, the ensembles remain troubling in terms of pressure and more especially rainfall with a number still having enough rainfall to cause mud problems. The operational run forecast some rain on Friday, but will this be enough to cause problems.

    Saturday looks not bad generally and Sunday looks rather unsettled once again.

    If it was based on operational GFS. the rating would be 5, the ensembles a 6 and ECM 6.5.

    So on this basis my rating today is 6.0, an improvement on yesterday.
    [attachment=253428:glaston 19th June.JPG]

    Pack those wellies, they may well be needed during Friday and maybe at times during the weekend.

    But to end on a more positive note, pack your sun scream as well. :D
  6. J10
    This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    So a definite trend towards a wet festival. Is today the day to stall or reverse this trend. Today's forecast will only contain today's runs.
    As we move closer to the festival, the operational charts become more important, and I will start with these, although the other forecast methods will still be shown.

    [b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO [b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][/b]

    From today as the final day of the festival moves into the T+240 range I will show the available charts for this day. So a complete picture of the festival will be shown.

    [b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
    [attachment=253289:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253293:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 96.JPG][attachment=253282:ECM 18th June 00Hz +96.png] [attachment=253297:ECM 18th June 12Hz +96.png]
    [attachment=253299:UKMO 18 June 00Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253298:UKMO 18 June 12Hz + 120.gif]

    There is a general theme, Low Pressure to the North East, with slightly higher pressure to the South. However it looks generally unsettled and each of the 12Hz run look similar synoptically so some rain seems likely over Glastonbury, perhaps 10mm of rain possible - enough to dampen the ground and this could effect things later on.

    The theme then is on Tuesday, or the Low Pressure to edge away, so a transient day, which should be drier, and allow the ground to dry off a bit after Monday's rain.
    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253288:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253292:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253285:ECM 18th June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253296:ECM 18th June 12Hz +144.png]

    For Wednesday the theme is for low pressure to the west of the UK to start edging closer to the UK itself. With the exception of the GFS 12Hz run, Wednesdays looks mostly dry, indeed the ECM 12Hz run has a mini HP over South Eastern areas.

    For Thursday the theme is for Low Pressure to continue to edge closer to the UK, but a largely dry day seems quite likely.

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253287:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253291:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253284:ECM 18th June 00Hz +192.png] [attachment=253295:ECM 18th June 12Hz +192.png]

    Friday is currently the problematic day, there is currently decent agreement between the models that a wet day is likely, with South Western areas bearing the brunt of the rainfall, with current estimates suggesting over half an inch of rain possible. If this were to occur, this would certainly cause issues with mud, possibly even mudbath conditions.

    Saturday continues to look unsettled with further rain or showers.
    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253286:GFS 18th June 06Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253290:GFS 18th June 12Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253283:ECM 18th June 00Hz +240.png] [attachment=253294:ECM 18th June 12Hz +240.png]

    A bit of a disagreement for Sunday, ECM keeps things unsettled with further rain, while he GFS moves the low pressure out of the way quickly and a mostly dry day would probably ensue.

    [b]Rainfall Charts[/b]

    I am not a massive fans of these charts as they can over do rainfall amounts, but these show the heavy rain for Monday, and then for Friday, and the moderate rain in between for Wednesday based on GFS12Hz ).

    [attachment=253323:Rhgfs9014.gif] [attachment=253322:Rhgfs10814.gif]

    [attachment=253324:Rhgfs17714.gif][attachment=253325:Rhgfs20414.gif]

    [b]Ensembles[/b]
    [attachment=253327:Ensemble Temp 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253317:Ensemble Temp 18 June 12Hz.png]
    Generally quite cool for time of year, with the average never getting above 7c (850HPa) So no real warm weather likely however.

    [attachment=253328:Ensemble Rain 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253318:Ensemble Rain 18 June 12Hz.png]
    Both runs are wetter than yesterday suggested especially for Monday and Friday.

    [attachment=253326:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253319:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 12Hz.png]
    Interesting that both runs show ensemble Pressure dropping on Friday but moreso on the 12Hz, but large variations still present.

    [b]CPC Charts[/b]
    This covers the festival period 24-28 June and shows Low Pressure bang on top of the UK.

    [attachment=253330:610day.03 from 18 June.gif]
    [b]Summary [/b]

    A lot to take in above, but some moderate rain seems likely on Monday in itself not too much of a problem. Some models suggest some rain on Wednesday but the majority do not go for this. Possibly then dry until Friday when some heavy rain is expected. This has the real potential to cause a lot of mud related problems. Perhaps a little drier and brighter for the weekend but further uncertainty.

    The General theme of it being rather unsettled seems very likely and some rain does seem likely for the festival at times, however maybe a straw to hold onto is that perhaps there is a slight theme of the heavy rain being put back, perhaps this may happen and that by tomorrow the rain will be forecast for Saturday.

    Despite this the trend towards a wet festival continues so a 7.0 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath Rating.

    [attachment=253321:Glasto Rating 18th June.JPG]

    Whatever you do, remember to pack your wellies.
  7. J10
    This is the 7th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    This forecast will contain charts for the past 2 days, and most of these charts were already posted in the main thread yesterday.

    As we move closer to the festival, the operational charts become more important, and I will start with these, although the other forecast methods will still be shown.

    [b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO (12Hz) [/b]

    [b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253171] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253187] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253168] [attachment=253221:UKMO 17 June 17Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253227:ECM 17th June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253233:ECM 17th June 12Hz +120.png]
    The UKMO/ECM keeps things a bit drier than the GFS with the Low Pressure further North and East, in this sense it is a more progressive pattern.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253172] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253177] [attachment=253219:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253220:GFS 17th June 12Hz + 120.JPG]
    The last 4 GFS runs are consistent in having Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a Cool N to NE flow over the UK, this would mean a showery outcome for Glastonbury, with some moderate rain probable.

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June [/b][/size]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253170] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253186] [attachment=253226:ECM 17th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253234:ECM 17th June 12Hz +168.png]
    ECM has a West to South flow, but the low pressure further south than the GFS, but this means that ti would be wetter for Glastonbury than the GFS option, and this would cover Wednesday and the Thursday.
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253173] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253176] [attachment=253218:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253217:GFS 17th June 12Hz + 168.JPG]
    According to GFS the mostly likely outcome is a mild SW flow with Tropical Maritime air, keeping things rather damp for Glastonbury, although this mornings run is somewhat drier.

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253169] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253185] [attachment=253225:ECM 17th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253235:ECM 17th June 12Hz +216.png]
    ECM continues to be more progressive, and woulds have the wetter weather moving through quicker, and would lead probably to a more settled weekend than the GFS option.
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253174] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253175] [attachment=253215:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253216:GFS 17th June 12Hz + 216.JPG]
    The GFS pattern is for a mild west to South west flow, with some damp weather possible for Glastonbury, however there is a real chance that the heaviest rain will be kept away further to the North.

    [b]2. Ensemble Forecasts[/b]
    [size=3][b]GFS Temperature Ensembles [/b][/size]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253182] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253178] [attachment=253222:Ensemble Temp 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253230:Ensemble Temp 17 June 12Hz.png]
    Temps are looking cool to start, but as they switch round to more of a West to South Westerly flow, they are likely to improve steadily as the festival continues.
    [size=3][b]GFS Rainfall Ensembles [/b][/size]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253181] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253179] [attachment=253224:Ensemble Rain 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253228:Ensemble Rain 17 June 12Hz.png]
    These ensembles are a bit better than a few days ago with the bigger spikes disappearing, however there is still a trend for patchy rainfall for much of the festival.
    [size=3][b]GFS Pressure Ensembles[/b][/size]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253183] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:253180] [attachment=253223:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253229:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure is forecast to be around 1015mb for the duration of the festival, and slightly higher at the start. this continues the theme of slightly unsettled weather .

    [b]3. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

    [attachment=253248:610day.03 from 16 June.gif] [attachment=253244:610day.03 from 17 June.gif]
    The 6-10 forecast which is the most relevant for the festival shows neutral conditions over the UK.

    [attachment=253247:814day.03 from 16 June.gif] [attachment=253243:814day.03 from 17 June.gif]


    [b]Summary [/b]

    The models have things rather unsettled for next week as things stand. GFS at least keep High Pressure closer to the south, which should minimize rainfall amounts, and mean a rather damp unsettled start to the festival and probably through much of the weekend. This would minimize mud levels to reasonable levels, and no mudbath would be likely. There is also decent support in the ensembles for this.

    ECM is far more progressive, and this would mean the prospect of heavier rain for a time from Wednesday through to Friday, but probably would mean a drier weekend. However there seems less support in the ensembles for this.

    Calling a rating today is tricky, GFS/Ensembles would be close to 5 or 5.5 while ECM would be closer to 6.5 or 7. So I'll go for middle ground and a gave a rating of 6. There is still enough uncertainty which could make a big difference to the Glastonbury conditions.

    [attachment=253236:Glasto Rating 17th June.JPG]
  8. J10
    This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.

    This forecast will be split into 3 main sources

    [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

    [attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif]
    [attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253150:814day.03 from 15 June.gif]

    These have both moved from the settled outlook of recent days to something more neutral.

    [b]2. Ensemble Forecasts[/b]

    [size=3][b]GFS Pressure Ensembles [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253114:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253117:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253120:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253122:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 12Hz.png]

    These are now very messy with quite a large spread, whereas before there was consensus of things remaining settled until at least the immediate run up to the festival. Now average pressure is set to drop back
    Now next week the average pressure remains around 1020mb throughout the festival (with the 06Hz ensembles dropping it further at the start of the festival)

    [size=3][b]GFS Rainfall Ensembles [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253113:Ensemble Rain 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253116:Ensemble Rain 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253119:Ensemble Rain 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253121:Ensemble Rain 15 June 12Hz.png]

    Again more uncertainty compared to before with some large spikes, with some ensembles going for moderate rain at times during next week, some staying dry or mostly dry.

    [size=3][b]GFS Temperature Ensembles [/b][/size]

    [attachment=253112:Ensemble Temp 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253115:Ensemble Temp 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=253118:Ensemble Temp 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253123:Ensemble Temp 15 June 12Hz.png]

    Again more uncertainty of this as well, with the average 850hpa temps closer to 5c than 10c to festival, and rising by the end.

    [b]3. Operational Runs from GFS and ECM - as they move into the "more reliable " sub T+240 range. [/b]

    These initially focus on the Monday before the festival, and the Wednesday, as we move through the week these will forecast the whole of the festival period.

    [size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253126:GFS 14th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253128:GFS 14th June 12Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253132:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253133:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 216.JPG]

    The GFS run mostly go for an unsettled picture, with todays 12hz run showing the most settled conditions. There is a pattern at the moment that the GFS op run are more unsettled than the ensembles.
    [attachment=253134:ECM 14th June 00Hz + 192.png] [attachment=253137:ECM 15th June 00Hz + 168.png] [attachment=253148:ECM 15th June 12Hz + 168.png]

    The ECM runs have moved from a rather settled picture on yesterday 00Hz run to rather more unsettled picture (including yesterday 12Hz run not shown.)

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253127:GFS 14th June 06Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253129:GFS 14th June 12Hz + 240.JPG] [attachment=253131:GFS 15th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253133:GFS 15th June 12Hz + 216.JPG]

    [attachment=253135:ECM 14th June 00Hz + 240.png] [attachment=253136:ECM 15th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253147:ECM 15th June 12Hz +216.png]

    Each of the past 4 ECM runs for Wednesday has shown something different, form the settled picture on yesterday 00Hz run, rather more unsettled yesterday 12Hz and today 00Hz to in an between picture on tonight's 12h run.

    [b]Summary [/b]
    [b]Good [/b]
    The Ensembles are not that bad
    Perhaps the pattern is settling back down from the change of a few days ago to something not too bad
    Even if it does rain a little, the ground should be able to take it.
    [b]Bad [/b]
    There is a continuation of a move away from a settled festival
    Some operational runs make for gloomy reading
    [b]Overall[/b]
    It is important not to try to overreact to a few bad runs, the chances of a completely dry festival has receded somewhat in recent days. However providing any unsetled wtaher is transient adn tehre is a mix of conditions, then on site conditions are not likely to be that bad.

    There is also a slight trend of it being a little unsettled before the festival and perhaps improving during the festival, but this is a hunch and may well be proven wrong.

    So overall, there is more uncertainty than before, but given the current dry conditions, I'll still edge to it being more likely a dust bowl than a mud bath. But still take your wellies just in case.

    As such I give this festival a 4.5/10 rating at this time (0dustbowl, 10mudbath)

    [attachment=253142:Glastonbury 15th June.JPG]
  9. J10
    This is the 5th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The previous blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.

    IMO a definite trend is starting to emerge, which I will outline later, of course whether or not this is accurate, time will tell.

    This forecast will be split into 2 main sources

    [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

    The 6-10 day chart at this poll covers the immediate run up to the festival while the 8-14 day charts covers the festival period itself.
    [b]6-10 day [/b]
    [attachment=252942:610day.03 from 10 June.gif] [attachment=252947:610day.03 from 11 June.gif] [attachment=252946:610day.03 from 12 June.gif] [attachment=252990:610day.03 from 13 June.gif]

    [b]8-14 day [/b]
    [attachment=252943:814day.03 from 10 June.gif] [attachment=252944:814day.03 from 11 June.gif] [attachment=252945:814day.03 from 12 June.gif] [attachment=252993:814day.03 from 13 June.gif]

    Both sets of charts are very positive with High Pressure over the UK in both cases, becoming dominant in the 8-14 day range which covers 21-27 June.

    Interestingly today's charts (now published have dominant High Pressure over the UK, which slightly goes against the trend of the ensembles, slightly reducing the pressure over the UK.
    [b]2. Ensemble Forecasts[/b]

    [size=3][b]GFS Pressure Ensembles [/b][/size]

    [b][size=3]11 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252952:Ensemble Pressure 11 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252948:Ensemble Pressure Anomaly 11 June.JPG]

    [b][size=3]12 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252978:Ensemble Pressure 12 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252955:Ensemble Pressure 12 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252958:Ensemble Pressure Anomaly 12 June.png] [attachment=252961:Extra Ensembles Pressure 12 June.JPG]

    [b][size=3]13 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252964:Ensemble Pressure 13 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252974:Ensemble Pressure 13 June 12Hz b.png] [attachment=252966:Ensemble Pressure 13 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252982:Extra Ensembles Pressure 13 June.JPG]

    The pressure charts have a pattern to increase pressure over South Western parts of the UK, rising to an average of close to 1030mb by around the 17th June, It is then set to fall back to around 1020mb by the 22nd June. For the festival itself, the ensemble average pressure is just below, however with some runs, including the operational ones, turning things unsettled a bit.

    [size=3][b]GFS Rainfall Ensembles [/b][/size]

    [b][size=3]11 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252953:Ensemble Rain 11 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252950:Ensemble Rain Anomaly 11 June.JPG]

    [b][size=3]12 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252977:Ensemble Rain 12 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252954:Ensemble Rain 12 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252957:Ensemble Rain Anomaly 12 June.png]

    [b][size=3]13 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252962:Ensemble Rain 13 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252973:Ensemble Rain 13 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252965:Ensemble Rain Anomaly 13 June.png]

    The General pattern is for a mostly dry spell of weather coming up, however there are some spikes in the ensembles indicaiong some moderate rainfall, however most runs are still dry.

    [size=3][b]GFS Temperature Ensembles [/b][/size]

    [b][size=3]11 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252951:Ensemble Temp 11 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252949:Ensemble Temps Anomaly 11 June.JPG]

    [b][size=3]12 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252976:Ensemble Temp 12 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252956:Ensemble Temp 12 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252959:Ensemble Temps Anomaly 12 June.png] [attachment=252960:Extra Ensembles Temps 12 June.JPG]

    [b][size=3]13 June [/size][/b]
    [attachment=252963:Ensemble Temp 13 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=252975:Ensemble Temp 13 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252967:Ensemble Temps Anomaly 13 June.png] [attachment=252981:Extra Ensembles Temps 13 June.JPG]

    Temps are forecast to be above average with 850hpa temps just below +10c.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    [b]Good [/b]
    If the Glastonbury festival was a week earlier, there would be good confidence in a dry settled festival.
    There is still decent confidence of a mostly settled festival, with the majority of ensembles keeping thing mostly dry. with a dry run-up to the festival meaning helping dealing with any rainfall that does fall.

    [b]Bad [/b]
    The one concern is that the settled weather ends sooner than expected, and some ensembles do show it turning unsettled for the festival.

    [b]Overall[/b]
    Despite the concerns above, the current trend remains for the festival weather to be more settled, drier and warmer than average for the time of year. As such I give this festival a 3/10 rating at this time (0dustbowl, 10mudbath)

    [attachment=252979:glasto Rating 13th June.JPG]

    [b]Next Update [/b]

    This will be published on Monday night, probably around 8-10pm.
  10. J10
    The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,

    This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.

    [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

    [b]6-10 day [/b]
    [attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
    A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping conditions rather settled as time goes on, this improves the chances of dry weather in the run up towards Glastonbury festival.

    [b]8-14 day[/b]
    [attachment=252592:814day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252605:814day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252593:814day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252594:814day.03 from 10 June.gif]

    This again keep pressure higher than average just before the Glastonbury festival but perhaps but not quite as much the 6-10 day chart.

    All in all these charts are rather positive for dry weather. For sunnier weather you would would to see the High positioned more to the east.

    [b]2. GFS Ensemble Charts [/b]

    From 7 June

    [attachment=252601:Ensemble Pressure 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252602:Ensemble Rain 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252603:Ensemble Temp 7 JUne 12Hz.png]

    These charts are rather messy, pressure averaging 1020mb before Glastonbury with a high degree of variation but dropping a little in the run up to Glastonbury. Rainfall variable with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    From 9 June

    [attachment=252598:Ensemble Pressure 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252599:Ensemble Rain 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252600:Ensemble Temp 9 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure around 1020mb-1030mb to the 21st June before dropping back to around 1015mb on average by the end of run, rainfall looking low in the run up to Glastonbury, but turning a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury with a few ensembles spikes of high rainfall with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    From 10 June

    [attachment=252595:Ensemble Pressure 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252596:Ensemble Rain 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252597:Ensemble Temp 10 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure around 1020mb-1025mb from the 15th June to the 25th and only then dropping slightly below 1020mb, very little variation in the ensembles members either. Rainfall looking very low in the run up to Glastonbury, but a few runs a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury but drier generally than the 9th June with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    The NOAA charts are very promising in the run up to Glastonbury for settled weather. The Ensembles go for a settled period the week before Glastonbury, but will it last for the festival, the 7th/9th June runs suggest no, but today's suggest they might.

    A long way off still, but the more patterns are starting to emerge time will tell if they are the right ones. However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury.
  11. J10
    This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.

    This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.

    This weeks forecast methods

    1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
    2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
    3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] - This is the last forecast to use this model
    4. Prognostic Charts at 500mb from NOAA

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

    [b]June[/b]

    [attachment=252232:June 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252233:June 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252234:June 15 Temps 7 June.png]

    The Pressure charts show Higher pressure areas both to the west and east of the UK, with pressure only slightly higher than average over the UK itself. Temperatures are now generally around average, and slightly above average in Northern parts of the UK with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.

    In Summary pretty neutral to say the least.

    [b][b]July [/b][/b]
    [attachment=252229:July 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252230:July 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252231:July 15 Temps 7 June.png]
    The pressure charts show Higher pressure areas to the North west of the UK and also slightly above average over the UK itself.

    Temps above average generally, slightly in Southern and Eastern areas, well above average for Northern areas. Rainfall below average generally, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall around average rainfall.

    [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 31/05/2015 HP over UK first moving North, and then rebuilding over all parts Turning Unsettled from west with LP on top of UK for Glasto weekend 01/06/2015 HP over the UK, LP trying to edge from SE at times HP in Control over the UK esp. West parts 02/06/2015 Westerly winds with quite low pressure. HP to Azores Weak LP for festival period 03/06/2015 LP over UK to start pressure building slowly LP pressure for a time Thursday, then Pressure building over weekend 04/06/2015 HP builds up from SW HP to SW flattened out over time 05/06/2015 Unsettled to start, HP slowly building from South LP moves from west to east, HP building for late weekend 06/06/2015 HP over W to start builds initially before LP edges in from south Deep LP to start, slowly weakens over weekend [/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 31/05/2015 Cool and unsettled SE to NW Yellow / Light Orange Showery to start, perhaps more general rain Saturday 5.0 01/06/2015 Dry warmish and settled NE to N Light Orange / Orange Mostly Dry , perhaps odd showers Wednesday 9.0 02/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Wet W to NW Dark Green light yellow Damp/wet most days 4.0 03/06/2015 Dry warm and settled East Orange / Deep Orange Mostly dry , poss. shower Friday 8.0 04/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Damp NW to W Light Orange / Orange Showery Precipitation at times 6.0 05/06/2015 Mild, wet and unsettled SW to NW Yellow / Orange Periods of rain most days, some heavy 4.0 06/06/2015 Cool to Warm, Damp and Unsettled W to SW Yellow to Deep Orange Periods of rain most day, some moderate 5.0 [/code]
    The runs this week are not as promising as last week with the average down from 7.4 to 5.9 out of 10.

    [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 30 May Yellow -1/-0 +0/+1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -1/+1 (Gen) -2(N)/+1(S) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c (S) /+2c(NW) Light Blue/White Generally 31 May Yellow +3/+4 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Light Blue JULY +2(S)/-2(N) +1(S)/-2(N) -1c(NW)/+1c(E) +0c(SE) /+2c(NW) Blue Gen, white Midlands 1 June Yellow +1 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +2c/+3c Blue JULY +4(N)/+1(S) -0(SE)/+2(NW) -0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +1c(S) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 2 June Yellow -3 -1/-0 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -4(SW)/-2(SE) -1/-0 -1c(S)/+0c(N) -0c(Mid)/+4c(NW) White S areas, Red Midlands 3 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 4 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 5 June Yellow +2/+3 -1/-0 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Red JULY +2(SW)/+5(NE) -0(SW)/+2(NE) +0c(SW)/+2(NE) +1c(SE) /+4c (N) White/Light blue SW, Red Midlands 6 June Yellow -8/-7 -5/-4 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Deep Red JULY -8(SW)/-2 (N) -4(Cen)/-2(S/N) -2c(S)/+1c(N) -1c(SE) /+4c (N) Deep Red All southern areas[/code]
    No runs for June this week, for July the outcomes very varied and similar to last week in terms of averages. .

    [b]4. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
    link for those interested [url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php[/url]

    [b]6-10 days[/b]
    Shows high pressure initially for this week, but turning slightly unsettled as we move into the forecast for 12-16 June i.e. into next week
    [attachment=252235:610day.03 from 1 June.gif] [attachment=252236:610day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252237:610day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252238:610day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252239:610day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252240:610day.03 from 6 June.gif]

    [b]8-14 days[/b]
    Shows High pressure briefly but quickly turns things unsettled, however perhaps the pressure becoming neutral, by the end of the forecast period 14-20 June.
    [attachment=252241:814day.03 from 1 June.gif][attachment=252242:814day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252243:814day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252244:814day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252245:814day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252246:814day.03 from 6 June.gif]

    In summary of above, turning a little unsettled after this week, however perhaps things settling down once more as we move into the run-up to the festival.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    The long term models not so good this week, but looking at the medium term models, unsettled next week, and perhaps a slight sign of things improving just before the festival starts.
  12. J10
    This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues.

    At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that.

    However, for this week we are using the same models as last week.

    1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
    2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
    3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

    [b]June[/b]

    The pressure charts show a slight positive anomaly but not massively significant, the temperature charts continue to be above average, especially for northern parts of the UK, with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.

    [attachment=251540:June 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251541:June 15 Rainfall 31 May.png] [attachment=251542:June 15 Temps 31 May.png]
    [b][b]July [/b][/b]
    The pressure charts show pressure above average for all of the UK, but not hugely. Temps above average moreso for northern areas and a slightly bigger positive anomaly compared to last week. Rainfall around average, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall a slight tendency towards above average rainfall.

    [url="https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_05_2015/blogentry-213-0-68936000-1432493711.png"][attachment=251537:July 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251538:July 15 Rainfall 31 May.png][attachment=251539:July 15 Temps 31 May.png][/url]

    [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 24/05/2015 Ridge of HP over UK to start, then LP edging in from West West winds and zonal to start before HP builds over weekend 25/05/2015 Weak area of LP to start, then LP to west of UK West winds and flat pattern to start, then HP for start of weekend 26/05/2015 HP over N of UK being edged away by weaker pressure to South Pressure slowly building with weak High Pressure by weekend 27/05/2015 Unsettled with LP over UK LP over East to start, but flabby High building over UK 28/05/2015 Generally Unsettled to start but HP builds over UK HP to start but LP develops over UK 29/05/2015 LP to the west to start, but HP builds over UK for a time HP to the NE but LP edges in from the SW giving unsettled weather 30/05/2015 LP to start, but HP builds over the UK slowly HP slowly weakens, but pressure remains High to N and W. Less for the SE[/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 24/05/2015 Mild, Damp and Unsettled SW to W Light Orange / Orange Damp Wed-Thurs, Dry Weekend 7.5 25/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Warm SW to var Light Orange / Deep Orange Damp Wed Showery Thursday, Dry thereafter 8.0 26/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Very Warm NE to E Deep Orange Mostly Dry but odd shower possible 8.5 27/05/2015 Mostly Dry and warming up NE to E Yellow to Orange Showery, but risk diminishing over time 8.5 28/05/2015 Cool, dry until Sunday NE to NW Deep Orange to Light Orange Dry to start, rain Sunday 7.0 29/05/2015 mild, wet from Thursday E to SE Orange Dry to start, bands of rain from Thursday 4.0 30/05/2015 Warm, mostly Dry E to NE Light Orange / Orange Odd shower possible, but mostly dry in West 8.0[/code]
    When compared to last weeks runs listed here -> [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/[/url]

    These are a big improvement. By my ratings, which are entirely subjective, they have gone from 5.1 out of 10to 7.4

    [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JUNE z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +8/+9 +3/+4 +3c/+4c +3c Light Blue White +6(SW)/+18(NE) +2 (SW)/+9(NE) +3c(SW)/+5c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue Gen, white Midlands /SE 24 May Yellow +7/+8 +3/+4 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Blue +6 (E)/ +8 (W) +2(N/S)/+4(Cen) +1c(SW)/+2c(NW) +0c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue/Blue Generally 25 May Yellow +3/+4 +4/+5 -1c/-0c -1c/-0c Blue +2(SE)/ +8(NW) +4 (SE)/+8(NW) -1c(SW)/-0c(NW) -1c(SE)/+2c (N) Light Blue/Blue Generally 26 May Yellow -4/-3 -1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Red -1(SW)/ +1(NE) -1 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c(SE)/+2c(NW) White / Red Southern areas 27 May Yellow +2/+3 -1 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Light +1(SW)/ +4(NE) -2 (SW)/+1(NE) +1c (S)/+3c (N) +1c (S)/+3c (N) White/Blue 28 May Yellow +0/+1 +5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Blue/Deep Blue -2(NE)/ +2 (W) +2 (NE)/+5(SW) -2c(SE)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+1c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue Gen, white Midlands 29 May Yellow +4/+5 +2/+3 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red +3 (W)/ +6 (E) +2 (W)/+3 (E) -1c (W)/+1c (E) -0c (S)/+2c (N) Blue/White South, Red Wales/Midlands [/code][code=auto:0] [/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +1/+2 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Red +0 (W)/ +2 (E) +0/+1 +0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c (N) Red Generally 24 May Yellow +5/+6 -2/-1 +4c/+5c +4c/+5c Red/Deep Red +2(SW)/+10(NE) -2(SW)/+6(NE) +3c(NE)/+4c(SW) +2c(SE)/+6c (NW) Red/Deep Red 25 May Yellow +2/+3 +2/+3 -0 +0c/+1c Light Blue +2(SW)/ -2 (N) -0 -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NE) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 26 May Yellow -7/-6 -4/-3 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Red / Deep Red -6 (S)/ -2(NW) -2(S/N)/-3(Cen) -1c(SW)/+0c(NE) -1c(SE)/+4c (N) Red / Deep Red 27 May Yellow +0/+1 +1/+2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue -1(SE)/ +3(NW) +1 (SE)/+3(NW) -1c (S)/+1c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 28 May Yellow -4/-3 -3/-2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Red / Deep Red -4(SW)/ +1(NW) -2 (SW)/+2(NW) -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NW) Red / Deep Red 29 May Yellow -5/-4 -2/-1 -1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -5(SW)/ -1(NW) -2 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c (S)/+0c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) White/Light Blue S areas, Red Midlands [/code]
    I have added a PDF will all the figures from the spreadsheet, and a few things are noticeable.
    [attachment=251548:Glastonbury 2015 29 May.pdf]

    1. On the whole, the Meteociel CFS charts are not quite as positive as they were a week ago.
    2. June is looking a whole lot better for settled weather than July.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    The CFS Monthly Charts (NW Extra) show no real change from last week , the daily CFS (NW Extra) show a big improvement from last week while the CFS Meteoceil runs are slightly worse, with an indication than June should be better than July.

    Overall not a bad set of runs this week.
  13. J10
    This is the first blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], welcome to the roller coaster.

    At this stage were are still using long term models, so should be taken with a cellar full of salt, Nevertheless here we go.

    [b]Sources of Information[/b]
    1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
    2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
    3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]

    One thing you may be thinking why use July forecasts when the festival is in June, well IMO as the festival is at the end of the month, the forecast for July can add confidence for weather trends at the end of June.

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

    [b]June[/b]
    Higher Pressure to the North of the UK, with closer to average pressure for Southern parts. Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, rainfall around average for most southern areas.

    [attachment=250945:June 15 Pressure 24 May.png] [attachment=250943:July 15 Rainfall 24 May.png] [attachment=250947:June 15 Temps 24 May.png]

    [b]July [/b]

    [b]Pressure slightly above average for all of the UK, Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, and a hig[/b]her positive anomaly than compared to June, rainfall forecast to be slightly above average especially in the

    [attachment=250942:July 15 Pressure 24 May.png] [attachment=250946:June 15 Rainfall 24 May.png] [attachment=250944:July 15 Temps 24 May.png]

    [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read Forecast Pattern 18-23 June Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 18/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to W Yellow - Orange (Sunday) Damp to start, wet Friday, drier weekend 5.5 19/05/2015 LP to North of UK, keeping Azores ridge to SW to W mainly Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to NE Yellow / Light Orange Damp at times, mostly Eastern UK 6.5 20/05/2015 LP over North if UK, slowly edging away with ridge of HP to S Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to N Dark Green / Yellow Damp, wet at times, mostly Eastern UK 4.5 21/05/2015 LP over UK slowly weakening over time Mild Wet at times SW to W Light Orange Wet to start, drier over weekend 5.0 22/05/2015 HP to start then LP form SW Mild/Warm Wet at times SW to W Light Orange to Light Red Rain/showers most days, drier Sunday 5.0 23/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Mild Damp and Unsettled SW to W Yellow Wed to light orange Rain Wed-Fri, damp/showery weekend 4.0 [/code]
    Just realised that my analysis of the festival period itself was missing, so now shown below.[code=auto:0] Date read Forecast Pattern 24-28 June (Festival period) 18/05/2015 LP over UK to start, edges away to be replaced by flat westerly pattern 19/05/2015 Battle between ridging HP to SW and LP to North East 20/05/2015 LP deepens over UK, and then deepens over SW, before edging away Sunday and centred over S UK 21/05/2015 LP to west of UK with SW winds ahead of it, HP slowly building by weekend 22/05/2015 LP to West slowly weakening with HP building from SW for Sunday 23/05/2015 LP of various strength over UK for festival period [/code]
    Not the best charts this week, but these are often rather more unsettled compared to the real outcome.

    Sample daily Charts [attachment=250962:daily Precip.png] [attachment=250963:Daily Pressure.png] [attachment=250964:Daily Temps.png]


    [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temps Pressure Temps Run (JUNE) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter] 17 May Yellow +3 +2/+3 0c +1c Blue 0(SE)/+10(NW) +2(SE)/+6(NW) -0c(SE)/+0c(NW) 0c(SE)/+2c(NW) Blue gen White Midlands 18 May Blue +3/+4 +2/+3 -0c +1c Blue/Deep Blue +2(S/N)/+4(Cen) 0(S/N)/+2(Cen) -0c(Gen)/+0(NE) +0c(SE)/+2c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue all Southern UK 19 May Yellow -3/-2 +0/+1 -1c -0c Light Blue/White -3(SW)/+0(NE) +0(SW)/+4(NW) -2c(SW)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+2c(NW) Light Blue Gen, White Midlands/SE 20 May Yellow +12/+13 +5 +4c +3c Deep Blue +10(NW)/+14(SE) +4(SW)/+7(NE) +2c( N)/+4c(SE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Deep Blue Gen, White Midlands 21 May Yellow +7/+8 +5 +1c/2c White/Blue +6(SW)/+10(NE) +4(SW)/+6(NE) +1c(SW)/+2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c NW) Deep Blue Gen, white/Red Midlands 22 May Yellow +3 +0/+1 +1c/2c +0/+1 Light Red/White +2(S)/+8(N) +0(SE)/+4(NW) +0c(SW)+/2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c(NE) Blue Deep Gen, white/Red Midlands/SE[/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temps Pressure Temps Run (JULY) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter] 17 May Yellow +8 +5 +1c +2c Deep Blue +6(SE)/+ 9(NW) +4(SE)/+6(NW) +1c +0c(SE)/+3c(NW) Deep Blue gen White Midlands 18 May Blue -1 -2 0c +1c Red -2(SW)/+ 2(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) +0c(SW)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red Deep Red Midlands 19 May Blue +4/+5 +1/+2 +1c +2c Blue/White +2( W)/+ 6 (E) +0(NW)/+2(SE) +1c (W)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+4c(N) Blue SW White/Red Midlands 20 May Blue +2/+3 -1 +2c/+3c +3c/+4c Red/White +0(SW)/+10 (N) -2(SW)/+4 (N) +1c (S)/+3 (N) +2c(SE)/+6c(NW) White South, Red Midlands 21 May Yellow -3/-2 -2 +0c +1c/+2c Red/White -3(SW)/+ 1(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) -0c(SW)/+1(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red South Deep Red Midlands 22 May Yellow -10 -6/-5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Light Red -10(SW)/-2(NE) -6(NE)/-2(SW) -2c (S)/+1(NE) -0c(SE)/+4c(NE) Red/Deep Red Generally [/code]
    Generally quite positive for Glastonbury in June and for the UK as a whole.

    For July however less positive with more in the way of unsettled weather and a bit wetter for northern parts of the UK faring better.

    So overall a very mixed picture, with no real pattern as of yet. Hopefully the charts next week will be a more positive.
  14. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Introduction [/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial]It is always strange at this time of year, on the one hand it seems another long winter on the other hand it has flown by.
    From the outside, it seems there was a fairer distribution of snow this year than other years. Quite a lot of snow has fallen from late December onwards, but there have been notable mild weather at times, which has left some lower slopes in particular with snow shortages at times.
    The other notable feature seems the number of unsettled weekends and in particular on Saturdays.[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b]
    So on with the forecast in my last blog I mentioned the chance of a late winter hurrah for the Easter Weekend.

    If we compare the models s from last week to what is suggested now. It is noticeable that the cold was watered down and was further East than forecast. This is a common theme from Northerlies in recent years!!
    [attachment=248231:Alps 27 Mar + 168.JPG] [attachment=248230:Alps 3 Apr.JPG]

    So the pattern is for High Pressure to the west of the UK, with low pressure over Eastern Europe , with the Alps in between these patterns.
    [attachment=248233:Alps 3 Apr +24.JPG]
    However over the weekend, there is a tendency for High Pressure to build over the UK and for Low Pressure to develop to the South East of the Alps, with a cold Easterly flow setting in.
    [attachment=248232:Alps 3 Apr +48.JPG]
    This pattern continues into next week with a cold Easterly flow continuing over the Alps.
    [attachment=248239:Alps 3 Apr + 72.JPG]
    By midweek, the pressure over NW Europe continues to rise, and the colder air abates and the winds switch round to more of a East/South East direction turning things less cold.
    [attachment=248238:Alps 3 Apr + 120.JPG][/font][/size] [attachment=248249:Alps 3 Apr + 168 (Pattern).JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Temperatures[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Coldest towards the North East and noticeable that even the cold temps at 850Hpa do not relate to that cold temperatures on the surface.
    Sat – 1000m-1300m North and East Austria, S Germany 1300-1800m N Switzerland, most of Austria, NE Italy 1800-2200m SW Austria, S Switzerland, NW Italy, France/Italy border
    Sun – 1000m-1300m Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, most of Austria, N Italy 1500-1800m, S Switzerland, NW Italy, France/Italy border
    [attachment=248237:Alps Temps 3 Apr + 24.png] [attachment=248236:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 48.png]

    Mon – 800m-1000m Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    Tues – 800m-1000m N Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m S Austria, N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    [attachment=248235:Alps 3 Apr Temps +72.png] [attachment=248234:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 96.png]

    Tues – 800m-1000m N Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m S Austria, N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    Wed – 1200m-1600m N Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 1800m-2200m SW Austria, NE Italy, S Switzerland, French Alps 2400m-2600m NW Italy
    [attachment=248246:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 96.png] [attachment=248245:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 120.png]

    Thurs – 1200m-1600m N and E Austria, SE Germany 1600-2000m W Austria, SW Germany, NE Italy, E Switzerland 2200m-2600m W and Central Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy
    Fri – 1000m-1400m Austria, S Germany 1400-1800m N and E Switzerland, 2000m-2400m S Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy
    [attachment=248244:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 144.png] [attachment=248243:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation[/b]
    Saturday - Overnight precipitation becomes a bit more organised during the day and edges south as we move in to the evening. Snow levels 1000m (Notrth-1800m early afternoon, this dropping to under 1000m for all areas by evening.

    Sunday – Showers for most of the day, these heavy at times during the afternoon, before fading away quickly by evening, snow level circa 1000m-1400m

    Monday and Tuesday – Precipitation is likely to develop over Austria, during the afternoon Monday, turning moderate at times, this continuing overnight before fading during Tuesday snow levels generally below 800m

    Wednesday to Friday – Staying dry in the west, spells of precipitation possibly over Austria at times, some of this heavy and falling as snow above 800m generally sometimes this rising to 1200m during daylight hours.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    A definite split this week coldest towards the North and East with further snow likely to moderate levels, and milder drier and possibly sunnier towards the South West.[/font][/size]

    That is that for another year, the chat goes on at [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/page-23"]https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/page-23[/url] but having a clean cut off makes more sense.

    Hopefully you have enjoyed reading these blogs and they have been informative and maybe at times even accurate!!.

    One last thing if you are on the slopes this week, be mindful of the avalanche risk off slopes and take plenty of sun cream.
  15. J10
    [size=4][font=arial]I must start by expressing the shock of the terrible events of the plane crash over the Alps earlier this week. The whole event is a terrible tragedy and our thoughts go out to all those effected.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Moving on to the far less important matter of snow in the Alps, it has been a rather mixed week, with further snow at higher slopes, and much milder conditions lower down, In many ways classic early spring conditions.
    These rather mixed conditions are set to continue, with milder spells, and colder spells this week at different times, but with the prospect of more general colder weather for Easter weekend.

    [b]Synoptics [/b]
    The current pattern over NW Europe is for a large area of High Pressure to be centred over the Iberian Peninsula. The Alps on the far east of this pattern has North Easterly winds.
    Into the weekend and the winds turns to more of a westerly over North Western Europe, this increasingly feeding into milder weather over the weekend for the Alps.
    [attachment=247776:Alps 27 Mar.JPG] [attachment=247775:Alps 27 Mar + 24.JPG]

    Into next week and winds veering North Westerly briefly on Monday turning things colder more especially for Eastern areas. Back milder in all areas on Tuesday with Westerly winds.
    However form Wednesday onwards, a more sustained North Westerly blast is expected, with some very cold air for the time of year.
    [attachment=247774:Alps 27 Mar + 72.JPG] [attachment=247773:Alps 27 Mar + 120.JPG]

    The cold more especially for Eastern areas, as winds veer more to a North Easterly signs that if may affect all parts of the Alps over Easter weekend, however this is a long way off. Indeed the Weather Maps have changed significantly since this morning.
    [attachment=247772:Alps 27 Mar + 168.JPG]

    [b]Temperatures[/b]
    Quite often a South West / North East split this week, coldest generally towards the North and East
    Sat – 1000m-1400m North and East Austria, SE Germany 1600m-1800m rest of Southern Germany, Northern and Central Austria, NE Switzerland, Liechtenstein, NE Italy 2000-2200m most of Switzerland, NW Italy, French Alps
    Sun – 1600m-2000m S Germany, French Alps, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, N and E Austria 2000m-2400m S Switzerland, SW Austria, N Italy
    [attachment=247771:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=247770:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 48.png]

    Mon - 1400m-1800m Northern Austria, SE Germany 1800-2000m Central Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein 2000-2400m S Switzerland, S Austria, French Alps, N Italy
    Tue – 1800m-2200m Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 2200m-2600m rest of Switzerland and Austria, French Alps, 2600m-3000m N Italy
    [attachment=247769:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=247768:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 96.png]

    Wed – 900m-1200m Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 1200m-1800m Central Switzerland and Austria , French Alps, 1800m-2100m N Italy
    Thurs– 1000m-1200m Northern Austria, Far SE Germany 1400m-1800m Central Southern Germany, Central Austria, NE Italy 1800m-2400m rest of Austria, Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy, Liechtenstein

    Fri – 600m-1200m Northern Austria, Far SE Germany 1200m-1800m rest of S Germany, N Austria, N Switzerland 1800-2100m S Switzerland, SW Austria, N Italy
    [attachment=247767:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=247766:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=247765:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Precipitation [/b]

    Sat – After overnight precipitation in Central Austria fades, it will turn drier for a time, however a warm front will edge in from the North west, bringing moderate rain for a time (snow above 2000m) from evening onwards this edging east overnight.

    Sunday - Patchy precipitation to start the day for northern areas this becoming heavier and prolonged with only the far south east staying dry. Snow above1800-2000m, with some significant snowfall totals likely.
    [attachment=247764:Alps 27 Mar Precip 60.png]
    Mon - The precipitation continuing into Monday with prolonged precipitation in many areas, with snow levels dropping to 1200m-1500m on the northern edge of the front. Further moderate snowfalls are likely in many northern and central areas on higher slopes.
    [attachment=247763:Alps 27 Mar Precip + 78.png]
    Tuesday and Wednesday – Showery to start, with the next front edging down from the north in the evening. This continuing into Wednesday but becoming patchier, the snow levels dropping from around 1800m on Tuesday to 800m on Wednesday.

    Thursday and Friday – looking mostly dry on Thursday, with the next front edging south on Friday with snow down to around 1000m.[/font][/size]

    The precipitation total suggest a far amount this week, especially for Northern areas, however not all of this will b of snow
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247777:Rhgfs14414.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Very much a week of contrast, mild to start (especially in the west). but turning colder especially towards the end of the week. more especially toward the east. Tentative signs of some cold weather over the Alps for Easter but time will tell, and eastern areas always favoured. [/font][/size]
  16. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]
    There was some snow at the start of the week, although not quite as much as forecast.

    However, towards the end of week things turned a far bit milder, As we move into late March, no surprise to see spring conditions really starting to take hold. The best conditions as ever higher up the slopes

    [b]Synoptics [/b]
    At this time of year in the Alps, you can have spring, almost summer like conditions one day, only to be taken back to winter with a vengeance the following day, and that its the theme this week.
    The Alps start the weekend in between weather patterns, low pressure to the South West and North East with High Pressure to the South East and North West. With fairly mild South Easterly winds.
    [attachment=247424:Alps 20 Mar.JPG]

    Over the weekend the High pressure to The North West edges South East and this feeds in cold east Easterly winds over the Alps more especially for areas further east.
    [attachment=247423:Alps 20 Mar + 48.JPG]

    Into next week and this high pressure moves further east to be centred over Eastern Europe, with winds coming from more of a South Easterly direction and this set to turn things milder.
    [attachment=247422:Alps 20 Mar + 96.JPG]

    Signs of another chance midweek as colder air attempts to edge in form the North West feeding in some colder air with Low Pressure forming over Italy. This could mean an unsettled period of weather to end the week, and potentially rather cold especially for northern parts of the Alps.
    [attachment=247421:Alps 20 Mar + 144.JPG]

    [b]Temperatures[/b]

    [size=4][font=arial]Sat – 1600m -2000m generally, 2000-2200m through Central Austria into SW Austria, Southern Switzerland into the French Alps[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Sun – 1200-1600m NE Austria 1600m-1800m Central Southern Germany and Southern Austria, NE Italy, 2000m-2200m French Alps, NW Italy, Switzerland, SW Germany, W Austria. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247440:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=247439:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 48.png][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mon – 1000-1600m E Austria 2000-2400m generally [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Tue –1800m-2000m SW and S Germany, N and W Switzerland and N Italy away from border areas 2000m-2300m through Central Austria into SW Austria, Southern Switzerland into the French Alps[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247438:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=247437:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 96.png][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial]Wed– 800m-1200m NW Switzerland 1000m-1400m French Alps, most of Switzerland, NW Austria, 1400-1600m NW Italy 1600-2000m rest of Austria, NE Italy [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Thur – 800m-1200m NW Switzerland, SW Germany 1000m-1400m French Alps, most of Switzerland, Central Southern Germany 1400m-1800m NW Austria, NW Italy 2000-2400m most of Austria, NE Italy [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Fri – 800m-1400m French Alps, S Germany most of N and Central Switzerland, NW Austria 1400-2200m Far South Switzerland, most of Austria, Northern Italy [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247436:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 120.png] [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247435:Alps 20 Mar Temps + 144.png][/font][/size] [attachment=247434:Alps 20 Mar Temps +168.png][/font][/size]

    [b]Precipitation [/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Sat – Dry to start but showery precipitation becoming more widespread over western areas, with some moderate and prolonged bursts by afternoon, some of this spreading to Austria later. Turning drier slowly overnight into Sunday. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][attachment=247445:Precip 1.png]

    [font=arial]Tue – Further showers outbreaks likely in the west on Tuesday[/font] [/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Wed - A cold front edges in from the North West early overnight this spreading across most areas during the day, with some heavy and prolonged precipitation likely. Snow Levels 800m-1400m for Switzerland, French Alps and SW Germany W Italy, 1600-2000m further South East. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][attachment=247444:Precip 2.png][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Thursday into Friday – rather unsettled over the Alps again, with further bursts of precipitation, perhaps drying up a bit later Friday, the heaviest of the precipitation over Italy, with snow levels similar to that of Wednesday. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][attachment=247443:Precip 3.png][attachment=247442:Precip 4.png][/size]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Quite a tricky week to pinpoint again, mild and springlike to start, with the chance of further heavy snow for western areas towards the end of next week. For once colder generally in western areas.
  17. J10
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]As we move into March things have warmed up somewhat, with spring snow conditions across the Alps, however good snow remains at altitude. Of course this mean that risk of avalanches remains. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Synoptics [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]The weekend starts with High Pressure centred over Scandinavia and North East Europe. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Winds are Northern Easterly over the weekend, and veers South Easterly for the start of next week, as the high pressure edges away to the North East for a time. This allows Low Pressure to edge in especially for Italy and at times other southern parts of the Alps so unsettled here for a time. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247003:Alps 13 Mar.JPG] [attachment=246990:Alps 13 Mar + 24.JPG] [attachment=246991:Alps 13 Mar + 48.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Over the weekend and into next week, temperatures are around average for the time of year. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Towards the weekend there is a level of uncertainty but the current trend is for high pressure to edge back in over Central Europe turning things more settled and colder in the east with a easterly feed. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=246992:Alps 13 Mar + 72.JPG] [attachment=246993:Alps 13 Mar + 96.JPG]
    [attachment=246994:Alps 13 Mar + 120.JPG] [attachment=246997:Alps 13 Mar + 144.JPG] [attachment=246998:Alps 13 Mar + 168.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Saturday – A few showers are possible in the morning for SW Alps, perhaps becoming a bit more widespread and heavy into the afternoon, but always concentrated towards the South West. (French Alps, S Switzerland, NW Italy into SW Austria), Snow is likely above 1600m daytime, this dropping back to 1000m overnight.[/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247015:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 24.png][/font][/size]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday – The northern half of the laps should be dry throughout, however heavy precipitation is expected over Western Italy, is set to spread over the rest of Italy, and fringe Southern parts of Switzerland and Austria, giving moderate precipitation at times. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=247014:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 48.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Monday and Tuesday - This pattern remaining very similar right though until Tuesday when the precipitation should slowly fade away, so dry for Northern Alps. Some moderate precipitation is likely at times over Southern parts of Switzerland and Austria, but the concentration remains over parts of Italy. Large precipitation totals are likely over much of Northern Italy with some very snowfalls above 1800m or so, with much of the precipitation falling as snow above 1400m, especially Sunday and Monday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=247013:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 72.png] [attachment=247012:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 84.png][/size][/font]

    [size=3][font=arial]Wednesday – Mostly dry to start however showers developing into the afternoon, snow above 1200m to the east, 2000m to the west. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Thursday and Friday A lot of uncertainty but the current trend is for patchy precipitation over Thursday, dry Friday[/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Looking at Snow-forecast [/font], it suggests over 1m over snow over arts of Northern Italy, over next 6 days, possibly a lot more in places. [/size]
    [attachment=247017:snow amounts to day 3.JPG] [attachment=247016:snow amounts to day 4-6.JPG]

    [attachment=247018:13 Mar + 48.gif] [attachment=247019:13 Mar + 120.gif]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Temperatures [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Sat – 800m-1200m Eastern Austria 1200m-1600m Southern Germany, Northern Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Western French Alps NE Italy 1800m-2000m SW Austria, Central Northern Italy Southern Switzerland, France/Italy border [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Sun – 1200m-1600m Eastern Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 1800m-2000m most of the Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247004:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=247005:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 48.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Mon – 1400m-1600m South East Austria, NE Austria 1800m-2000m French Alps, S and W Switzerland 2000-2200m rest of Switzerland, W Austria, S Germany [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Tue – 1400m-1800m South East Austria, 1800m-2000m N Italy 2000-2400m French Alps, Switzerland, Liechtenstein most of Austria 2400m-2600m S Germany [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247006:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=247007:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 96.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Wed– 800m-1200m E Austria 1200m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy 2000-2200m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Thur 800m-1400m NE Austria, SE Germany 1200m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy 2000-2200m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Fri -1000m-1600m E Austria, SE Germany 1600m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy, Central Southern Germany 2000-2400m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247008:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=247009:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=247010:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]

    [b][font=arial][size=3]Summary[/size][/font][/b]

    [size=3][font=arial]Another mostly mild week with spring like weather and conditions for much of the week, there are a few exceptions[/font], turning colder over Austria after mid week. Italy is also another exception with shed loads of snow likely this week, [/size]
  18. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font]
    Conditions have not been that bad over the Alps over the past week, with some milder weather over the weekend, however it has turned colder over the past couple of days with some further heavy snow in places.

    [font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b][/font]

    Currently there is High Pressure centered just to the north of the Alps. with a mild Tropical Maritime airmass on SW winds edging in for NW Europe and this turning things milder for the western alps, but still a very cold easterly flow over the Eastern Alps.
    [attachment=246484:Alps 6 Mar.JPG]

    Over the weekend the high Pressure moves steadily North and Eastwards, allowing the milder air to edge across all part of the Alps by the end of Sunday.
    [attachment=246490:Alps 6 Mar + 24.JPG] [attachment=246489:Alps 6 Mar + 48.JPG]

    For the start of Next week, general High pressure remains over the Alps, so staying dry and mostly mild.
    [attachment=246488:Alps 6 Mar +72.JPG] [attachment=246487:Alps 6 Mar + 96.JPG]

    By midweek and towards the end of the week, High Pressure builds in from the north with very cold air edging in from the west, this is especially true for Eastern parts of the Alps, but it may move further west by Friday, some uncertainty on this.
    [attachment=246486:Alps 6 Mar + 120.JPG] [attachment=246485:Alps 6 Mar + 144.JPG] [attachment=246491:Alps 6 Mar + 168.JPG]

    [font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font]
    [font=arial]A very dry week across the Alps generally, the only notable precipitation is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front edges down from the north east into S Germany and Austria. So some patchy precipitation for Germany Tuesday night pushing into Austria where it will continue for much of Wednesday with snow above about 1000m or so. [/font]

    [attachment=246506:Rhgfs10214.gif]
    Precipitation to Tuesday 6pm largely nil

    [attachment=246505:Rhgfs17414.gif]
    but a bit over Eastern areas over the following days.

    [b]Temperatures[/b]

    [font=arial]Sat – 1000m-1500m Eastern Austria. Far SE Germany 1800-2200m Western Austria, NE Italy, E Switzerland, Central Southern Germany 2400-3000m SW Germany, W Switzerland, French Alps, N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Sun – 1000m-1500m South East Austria. 1800-2400m SW Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 2600-3000m French Alps, NW Austria, most of Switzerland and Germany [/font]
    [attachment=246497:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=246498:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 48.png]

    [font=arial]Mon – 1400m-1800m South East Austria. 2200m-2400m SW Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 2400-2800m French Alps, NW Austria, most of Switzerland and Germany[/font]
    [font=arial]Tue – 1800m-2200m Austria. 2200m-2400m Central areas (east to west) of the Alps 2400-2600m French Alps, Western Switzerland and SW Germany, NW Italy [/font]
    [attachment=246496:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=246495:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 96.png]
    [font=arial]Wed– 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200m-1800m rest of Austria, E Switzerland, most of S Germany, NE Italy 2000m-3000m Far SW Germany, W Switzerland, NW Italy, French Alps [/font]
    [font=arial]Thur 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200-1600m most of rest of Alps 1600m-2000m border area SW Austria, N Italy and S Switzerland and into S Switzerland generally [/font]
    [font=arial]Fri 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200-1600m most of rest of Alps 1600m-2000m border area SW Austria, N Italy and S Switzerland and into S Switzerland generally [/font]
    [attachment=246494:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=246493:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=246492:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A mild to very mild week for western areas, a but more mixed further east, with some colder spells at times. Mostly dry with a good deal of sunshine , so take your sunscreen. A good week to be on the slopes, but expect spring snow conditions and again the warm weather means that the avalanche risk is set to remain high especially off piste.[/size]
  19. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    There has been further snow this week, and conditions are generally very good with abundant powder. However there are concerns over avalanches and these cannot be overlooked.

    The start of the season was pretty poor, which meant any icy base formed than than hard packed snow as a result the snow above this is not bound allowing snow to slide over the ice base, hence a very high risk of avalanches. Apologies for my poor explanation but hopefully you get my meaning.

    So it might be worth staying on piste than go for fresh powder off piste.

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b][/font][/size]
    The weekend starts with low pressure over the Northern Atlantic and a westerly wind flow and mild westerly winds over NW Europe.
    The Alps ahead of this is in SW winds and 850HPa temps around zero, turning milder for the Alps on Sunday as the milder air edges south.
    [attachment=245987:Alps 28 Feb Base.JPG] [attachment=245992:Alps 28 Feb + 24.JPG]
    For the start of next week, the source of the westerly flow is very cold air over North America. As this feeds in over NW Europe and eventually the Alps, it will turn progressively colder over the Alps.
    [attachment=245991:Alps 28 Feb + 48.JPG] [attachment=245997:Alps 28 Feb + 72.JPG]
    This continues through Wednesday as the wind veers North Westerly with Low Pressure again developing over Italy. Remaining unsettled across the Alps on Thursday with Low pressure over Italy and winds veering North Easterly.
    [attachment=246003:Alps 28 Feb + 96.JPG] [attachment=246002:Alps 28 Feb + 120.JPG] [attachment=246001:Alps 28 Feb + 144.JPG]

    By Friday and into the weekend, winds again looking like veering westerly, so initially less cold and then milder into the weekend.

    So in a summary a return to the mix of Tropical Maritime / Polar Maritime air mass split we saw particularly in January.

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font][/size]
    Showery on Saturday afternoon snow levels 800m in the north, 1600m to the South West. Turning drier by evening.

    A warm front edging in from the North West early hours of Sunday morning, with some moderate precipitation, snow level ahead of the front 600m, closer to 1400-1800m on the back edge. Continuing to edge slowly Eastwards, so that by noon, the precipitation covers the French Alps and Switzerland and border areas of NW Italy (SL 2000m), SW and S Germany and Western Austria (SL 1600-1800m) the precipitation continuing during the afternoon and evening, with precipitation at times for most of the Alps.

    Overnight into Monday, the front intensifying with precipitation being initially for the French Alps and Switzerland and by morning this also covering a swathe of Austria into Southern Germany with some heavy bursts, snow levels 1200-1400m on it northern edge. 1600m-1800m on it southern edge.

    The precipitation continuing through the evening and overnight, however abating in western areas especially with the snow level steadily dropping to 800m widely.
    [attachment=245999:Alps 28 Feb Precip 42.png] [attachment=245989:Alps 28 Feb Precip 48.png] [attachment=245998:Alps 28 Feb Precip 54.png]

    Tuesday sees the front continuing to fragment, but some patchy precipitation is possible into the afternoon, snow above 1200-1400m.

    Precipitation continuing overnight into Wednesday, drier for a time early morning, before more widespread again into the afternoon. Snow above 600m in the morning, up to 1000m for a time mid afternoon. The precipitation becoming more confined to the SE of the Alps by evening with the heaviest of the precipitation over Italy.

    Further patchy snow (above 600m) seems likely over the Alps for Thursday, with another front being patchy to moderate precipitation for Friday snow likely above 1000m or so.

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Temperature[/b][b]s[/b][/font][/size] (3pm)
    [size=4][font=arial]Sat – 800-1000m N Switzerland, S Germany, NW Austria 1000-1400 most of Austria and Switzerland, and N Italy French Alps 1600-1800m Far SW Austria, S Switzerland, NW Italy border areas
    Sun – 1400-1800m Central Austria, NE Italy 1800-2200m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [attachment=245988:Alps 28 Feb Temps Base.png] [attachment=246000:Alps 28 Feb Temps + 24.png]

    [font=arial]Mon – 1200m-1600m N Switzerland, S Germany, N Austria 1600m-2000m S Italy and S Switzerland, French Alps 2000m-2200m N Italy
    Tue – 800m-1200m N and E Austria 1200m-1600m N Switzerland, S Germany, N Austria, French Alps 1600-2000m SW Austria, S Switzerland an N Italy
    [attachment=245990:Alps 28 Feb Temps + 48.png] [attachment=245996:Alps 28 Feb Temps +72.png][/font]

    [size=4][font=arial]Wed– 600-1000m S Germany, Switzerland, Austria and French Alps, 1000m-1200m N Italy
    Thur 800m-1200m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1200m-1600m SW Austria, S Switzerland 1400m-1800m N Italy [/font][/size]
    [attachment=245994:Alps 28 Feb Temps + 96.png] [attachment=245995:Alps 28 Feb TEmps + 120.png]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    So all in all, a mixed week, mild at times to start the week, colder midweek with some further snow.
    But remember the warning above above about avalanches if you are on the slopes this week.
  20. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    There was some good snowfall over parts of the Alps last weekend with some parts of Northern Italy seeing 1m of snow. However it was not quite as extensive as forecast with parts of Switzerland, not doing as well as expected. Generally though there are good conditions over the Alps albeit with the recent sunny and warm weather in the afternoon, giving some afternoon spring snow conditions.

    [b]Synoptics[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial]Currently over the Alps there are South Westerly winds and High Pressure however this pattern is set to change overnight and into Saturday. Winds are set to veer to the North West introducing a Polar Maritime air mass, with Low Pressure edging in. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245393:Alps 20 Feb + 24.JPG] [attachment=245387:Alps 20 Feb + 48.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Apart from a brief spell on Milder air on Monday, it will be a generally cool or cold week with 850hpa temps below freezing and often below -5c. The coldest weather always reserved for the Northern areas of the Alps. It will be generally unsettled with Low Pressure over Italy and East to North East winds over the Alps on the northern flank of the Low Pressure. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245388:Alps 20 Feb + 72.JPG] [attachment=245389:Alps 20 Feb + 96.JPG]

    [attachment=245390:Alps 20 Feb + 120.JPG] [attachment=245391:Alps 20 Feb + 144.JPG] [attachment=245392:Alps 20 Feb + 168.JPG][/font][/size]

    [font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font]
    [size=3][font=arial]Not for the first time, precipitation edges in to start the weekend initially for the far west, but moving eastwards to cover SW Germany, Switzerland the French Alps and NW Italy by Saturday evening, but some moderate bursts. Snow levels 1000m for a time, but dropping to 600m later further north, [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245408:Precip SAt pm.png] [attachment=245409:Precip Saturday evening.png] [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]This continuing into Sunday, but by now the focus on NE Italy, Austria and SE Germany, still with some moderate bursts, however turning drier everywhere by the early hours of Monday. Snow levels 600m on the northern edge, 1000-1200m further south. [/font][/size]
    [[size=3][font=arial]attachment=245404:Precip early Sunday.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]The next frontal system edging into the West on Monday evening, several hours of precipitation as it edges SE by Tuesday however it stalls over SE Austria, NE Italy and fringes SE Germany and SE Switzerland. Snow levels 1400m on the front edge, dropping to 1000m and then 800m by Tuesday afternoon. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245405:Precip early Tuesday.png][/font][/size] [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245407:Precip midday Tuesday.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]The precipitation continuing over Eastern parts on Wednesday although fragmenting and becoming showery. Snow Levels 600m-800m. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][size=3][font=arial][attachment=245411:Precip Wed.png] [/font][/size][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Further showery precipitation expected Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday, but becoming increasingly concentrated to the South East, Snow to 600-800m, but rising to over 1200m daytime Friday. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][size=3][font=arial][attachment=245410:Precip Thursday.png] [/font][/size] [attachment=245406:Precip Friday.png] [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Moderate precipitation levels over much of the Alps, possibly drier over Northern Central areas. [/font][/size]
    [attachment=245413:Precip 72.gif] [attachment=245414:Precip 168.gif]
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Temperatures[/b]
    Sat – 800-1000m NW Switzerland, Far SW Germany, 1000-1400 most of Austria and Switzerland, French Alps 1600-2000m Central Southern Germany
    Sun – 600-800m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1000-1400m S Austria and S Switzerland, 1200m-1600m N Italy
    [attachment=245394:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 24.png] [attachment=245395:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 48.png]

    Mon – 1200-1600m Eastern and Central Austria, 1600-1800 N Italy, 2000-200m S Germany, Switzerland and French Alps
    Tue – 600-900m S Germany, Switzerland, French Alps and NW Austria 900m-1300m S Austria and N Italy
    [attachment=245396:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 72.png] [attachment=245397:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 96.png][/font][/size]

    [font=arial]Wed– 700-900m S Germany, French Alps and most of Switzerland and Austria 900m-1300m Far East Austria and N Italy[/font]
    [font=arial]Thur 800m-1200m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1200m-1600m SW Austria, S Switzerland 1400m-1800m N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial][size=4]Fri 800m-1200m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1200m-1600m SW Austria, S Switzerland 1400m-1800m N Italy [/size][/font]
    [attachment=245398:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 120.png] [attachment=245399:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 144.png] [attachment=245400:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    After such a slow start to the week, things continue to look very decent. By no means the coldest week in the Alps, not the snowiest but most areas are likely to see some fresh snow this week, even if at times, some of the precipitation will be of rain at lower slopes levels.

    All in all not a bad skiing week for late winter.
  21. J10
    [b][font=arial]Summary[/font][/b]
    Some great conditions to go skiing in recent days, with warm sunshine, this has had an impact on slopes especially lower down, and fresh powder becoming difficult to find.

    [b]Synoptics[/b]
    [font=arial]The weekend starts with Low pressure over the UK and this feeding in SW winds for the Alps on its eastward edge. Over the weekend, the low Pressure moving closer to the Alps, making things increasingly unsettled. 850Hpa temps generally just below freezing.[/font]
    [attachment=244845:Alps 13 Feb.JPG] [attachment=244852:Alps 13 Feb +24.JPG] [attachment=244846:Alps 13 Feb +48.JPG]

    [font=arial]Remaining unsettled to start next week, with low pressure never too far off the scene with winds from a general southerly direction. However signs of a change for Tuesday with High Pressure ridging up from the Azores.[/font]
    [attachment=244847:Alps 13 Feb +72.JPG] [attachment=244848:Alps 13 Feb + 96.JPG]

    [font=arial]The mid part to the end of next week sees High Pressure becoming increasingly dominant as the ridge of High Pressure from the Azores builds and becomes centred over mainland Europe/ Winds Easterly [size=3]perhaps veering North Easterly by the end of Friday, with 850HoPa temps above zero for a time.[/size][/font]
    [size=3][attachment=244849:Alps 13 Feb + 120.JPG] [attachment=244850:Alps 13 Feb + 144.JPG] [attachment=244851:Alps 13 Feb + 168.JPG][/size]

    [b][font=arial]Precipitation [/font][/b]
    [font=arial]Very much a split this week, Austria looks mostly dry, with Northern and Eastern areas completely dry. [/font]
    [font=arial]For the South and West of the Alps, showery precipitation for much of Saturday. Showery to start Sunday, however a more organised area of precipitation developing Sunday evening for Western Italy, Southern Switzerland and fringing the French Alps. This is set to continue through Monday, before becoming more showery into Tuesday. The snow level 1200-1400m perhaps a bit higher around midday Monday. [/font]

    [attachment=244866:Alps 13 FEb Precip 24.png] [attachment=244867:Alps 13 FEb Precip 57.png] [attachment=244868:Alps 13 FEb Precip 66.png] [attachment=244869:Alps 13 FEb Precip 90.png]

    Snow amounts are always difficult to confirm With [url="http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/skireport.html"]http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/skireport.html[/url] on the snow forecasting over 1m of snow in places over the next 3 days.

    While this accumulated "rainfall" suggests over 4 inches of rainfall in place, which confirms the above.
    [attachment=244870:Rhgfs7214.gif]

    [b][font=arial]Temps[/font][/b]

    [size=3][font=arial]Sat – 400-800m Far East of Austria, 1000-1400m elsewhere, 1600-1800m on the Austria/Switzerland border [/font]
    [font=arial]Sun – 1200-1400m most of Alps, 1600-2000m SE Germany, parts of N/NW Austria, [/font][/size]
    [size=3][attachment=244859:Alps Temps 13 Feb.png] [attachment=244861:Alps Temps 13 Feb + 48.png][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Mon – 400-800m Far East of Austria, 1200-1600m generally, 1600-2000m S Germany, NW and W Austria, SE Switzerland, [/font]
    [font=arial]Tue – 200-600m Far East of Austria, 1200-1800m generally, 1600-2200m S Germany, NW and W Austria, S and E Switzerland, into the French Alps[/font]
    [attachment=244860:Alps Temps 13 Feb 72.png] [size=3][attachment=244862:Alps Temps 13 Feb + 96.png][/size]

    [font=arial]Wed– 200-600m Far East of Austria, 800-1400 Reminder Eastern Austria, 1800-2200m elsewhere [/font]
    [font=arial]Thur 600m-1400m Eastern Austria, 1800m-2200m elsewhere [/font]
    [font=arial]Friday 1800m-2200m generally [/font]
    [attachment=244863:Alps Temps 13 Feb + 120.png] [attachment=244858:Alps Temps 13 + 144.png][/size]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    A mixed week, dry and mild in Northern and Eastern parts, so take your sun screen, with the chance of heavy snow over higher slopes further South and west with Italy the prime spot for some heavy snow.
  22. J10
    [size=3][b]Summary[/b]

    The recent weeks have seen a continuous improvement across the Alps with good snow levels in most places.

    [b]Synoptics [/b]

    The current pattern is High Pressure over the UK, with very cold East to North Easterly winds over the Alps. the pattern similar for Monday, and turning slightly less cold.

    [attachment=244445:Alps 8 Feb.JPG] [attachment=244446:Alps 8 Feb + 24.JPG]

    The High Pressure edges further South East from Tuesday, with the cold feed from the East bring cut off and bring replaced with a milder South Easterly feed.

    [attachment=244447:Alps 8 Feb + 48.JPG] [attachment=244448:alps 8 Feb + 72.JPG]

    By the end of the week, no real dominant weather pattern for the Alps, with light winds and 850hpa falling back to around zero.

    [attachment=244450:Alps 8 Fen + 96.JPG] [attachment=244449:Alps 8 Feb + 120.JPG]

    [b][font=arial]Precipitation [/font][/b]

    [font=arial]Moderate to heavy snow [to around 400m] for Austria, S Germany and Eastern Switzerland. Snow continuing overnight for parts of Austria and SE Germany. [/font]
    [attachment=244460:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 9.png] [attachment=244461:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 15.png]
    [font=arial]The precipitation building up Monday morning into the afternoon, with heavy precipitation for several hours for SE Germany and NE Austria, with moderate precipitation for other parts of Austria, Snow about 400m-600m][/font]

    [attachment=244462:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 27.png] [attachment=244463:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 33.png] [attachment=244464:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 39.png]
    [font=arial]Precipitation continuing during Monday evening overnight before fading away. [/font]

    [font=arial]With pressure building a little during the rest of the week, turning much drier. [/font][/size]

    [size=3]Total precipitation 48 hrs and 12hrs, very much a case of spot the difference. [/size]
    [size=3][attachment=244465:Rhgfs4814.gif] [attachment=244466:Rhgfs12014.gif][/size]

    [size=3][b][font=arial]Temps[/font][/b]

    [font=arial]Sun – 200-600m most of Austria, S Germany 600m- 900m SW Austria, N and E Switzerland, NW French Alps, 900m-1200m S Switzerland, NE Italy, 1500m-1800m NW Italy and SE French Alps[/font]
    [font=arial]Mon – 200-600m N Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, 800m-1400m SW Austria, S Switzerland, NW French Alps 1800m-2000m NW Italy and SE French Alps, Far SW Switzerland [/font]
    [attachment=244454:Alps 8 Feb Temps.png] [attachment=244455:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 24.png]

    [font=arial]Tue – 800-1000m N Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, 1000m-2400m SW Austria, S Switzerland, French Alps, N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Wed – 1800-2000m SE Austria, 2000m-2400m rest of Alps[/font]
    [attachment=244456:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 48.png] [attachment=244457:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 72.png]

    T[font=arial]hurs – 1400-1800m SE Austria, 1800m-2200m rest of Alps
    Fri – 400-800m E Austria, 1200m-1600m most of Alps, 1800m-2200m SW Austria, S Switzerland, SE French Alps , Far NW Italy [/font]
    [attachment=244458:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 96.png] [attachment=244459:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 120.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    A cold start to the week with some heavy snowfalls likely to quite low levels for S Germany and parts of Austina. Thereafter a bit milder and somewhat drier.

    Definitely a week to be on the slopes rather for long term snow retention.[/size]
  23. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]

    The last 24-48hours has seen some very good snowfall for the Alps, more especially towards the NW, this is set to continue overnight into Saturday.

    The weekend starts on a cold unsettled them with winds from North Westerly direction. This is associated with low pressure off the south coast of Scandinavia.

    This rather unsettled and cold theme continues through the weekend.
    [attachment=242964:Alps 30 Jan.JPG] [attachment=242965:Alps 30 Jan + 24.JPG]

    The following is of quite high uncertainty

    On Monday a small low pressure system pushes in from the North West and slowly edges across the Alps turning things briefly less cold. However turning back colder by Wednesday and colder again by
    [attachment=242966:Alps 30 Jan + 48 b.JPG] [attachment=242967:Alps 30 Jan+ 72.JPG]

    Wednesday, as it exits to the east and reintroduces colder North East winds.
    [attachment=242979:Alps 30 Jan + 96.JPG][attachment=242980:Alps 30 Jan 120 B.JPG] [attachment=242981:Alps 30 Jan + 144.JPG]

    This is the theme towards the weekend, cold unsettled and with north easterly winds.

    [b]Precipitation [/b]

    Saturday - After overnight snow moves away from the NW, Patchy precipitation (snow to resort level) will continue in Austria for a time before dying away, another front edging in from the NW for the evening again heavy in places.
    Sunday - Snow from the NW continuing in the morning turning patchier later and moving east.
    Monday - Further showery snow for the Northern half of the Alps, however turning drier later
    Tuesday - Heavy precipitation over central Italy, trying to edge north into the Italian Alps for the evening and early overnight period.
    Wednesday - Overnight precipitation edging NE into many parts of Austria and Switzerland snow to resort level in the north, snow over 1000m for Italy and SW Austria.
    Rest of week - After the front dies way, showery precipitation likely over the Alps, largely of snow.

    T[b]emps[/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Sat – 300m-500m S Germany, French Alps, most of Switzerland, E Austria, 700m-900m rest of Austria, NE Italy 800-1000m NW Italy[/font]
    [font=arial]Sun – 400-800m Austria, S Germany, N and E Switzerland, 800-1000, NW Italy, French Alps, 1000-1400, Far NW Italy, SW Switzerland[/font]

    [attachment=242978:Alps 30 Jan Temps.png] [attachment=242977:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 24.png] [size=4][attachment=242975:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 48.png] [/size]

    [font=arial]Mon – 200m-500m S Germany, Northern parts of both Austria and Switzerland, French Alps, 500m-900m rest of Austria and Switzerland and N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Tue – 0m-400m S Germany, NE and E Austria, NW Switzerland, 800-1000m rest of Austria and Switzerland, French Alps, Italy[/font]

    [attachment=242974:Alps 30 Temps + 72.png] [size=4][attachment=242973:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 96.png][/size]

    [font=arial]Wed – 0m-400m S Germany, NW Austria and N Switzerland, French Alps , 1000-1200m S Switzerland, much of Austria and Northern Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Thurs – 0m-200m S Germany, NE and E Austria, NW Switzerland, French Alps 600-800m Far South of Switzerland , SW Austria 800-1000m N Italy [/font]
    [attachment=242987:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 120.png] [attachment=242971:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 144.png]

    [font=arial]Fri – 0m-200m S Germany, NE and E Austria, NW Switzerland, 0-800m French Alps 0-1000m Far South of Switzerland , SW Austria 800-1000m N Italy[/font]
    [attachment=242970:Alps 30 Jan Temps + 168.png][/size]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    After another good weekend with persistent snowfall. and perhaps a little more than GFS suggests. A cold week for most, especially further north with further snow at times, A continuation of the improving theme.
  24. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    Last week was a much better week than recently, the forecasted snow arrived in abundance last weekend, and largely cold conditions have remained ever since.

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptic Pattern[/b][/font][/size]

    [font=arial]Currently the Alps has cold winds from the East to North East squeezed between the High to North West and a low pressure system over Italy.
    [attachment=240930:Alps 23 Jan.JPG] [attachment=240929:ALps 23 Jan +24.JPG]

    Over the weekend colder air will edge in from the North West (850Hpa sub -5c), over the top of the High with low pressure remaining to the south east of the Alps.
    [attachment=240928:Alps 23 Jan +48.JPG] [attachment=240927:Alps 23 Jan + 72.JPG]

    This weather pattern of High Pressure riding from the Azores High will continue into next week, at times this introducing slightly milder in from the Atlantic, more so for western areas of the Alps, but no sign so of massively mild weather and always colder to the east.
    [attachment=240926:Alps 23 Jan + 96.JPG] [attachment=240925:ALps 23 Jan + 120.JPG]

    Perhaps milder for a time, after midweek, with westerly winds but then signs of turning more generally unsettled from the Northwest, and this perhaps reintroducing colder air.[/font]
    [size=4][attachment=240924:Alps 23 Jan + 144.JPG] [attachment=240923:Alps 23 Jan + 168.JPG][/size]

    [size=4][b][font=arial]Precipitation[/font][/b][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Dry to start in the west, showers over western Austria on Saturday morning. More general precipitation edging in from the North West in the afternoon for Switzerland and SW Germany, spreading eastwards overnight into Austria, with showery precipitation over NE Switzerland, S Germany and NW Austria for Sunday daytime and evening. Snow below 800m at worst daytime Saturday, 200-400m overnight [/font][/size]
    [attachment=240955:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24.png] [attachment=240963:Alps 23 Jan Precip + 30.png]

    [size=4][font=arial]Monday sees are lingering snow showers fading by morning, with more general precipitation edging in from the North West with moderate precipitation for Switzerland, S Germany, and the French Alps and perhaps W Austria. Snow above 600m in Eastern areas, perhaps as high as 1000m in the Western Alps.[/font][/size]
    [attachment=240962:Alps 23 Jan Precip + 48.png] [attachment=240961:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 57.png]

    [size=4][font=arial]This spreading South East overnight into Tuesday with moderate precipitation for a time over Central areas but this dying out by the afternoon. Snow above about 800m daytime, to sea level overnight. [/font]
    [font=arial]Some showers in places on Wednesday, with snow above circa 600m. [/font][/size]

    [attachment=240960:Alps 23 Jan midweek.png] [attachment=240959:Alps 23 Jan THurs.png] [attachment=240957:Alps 23 Jan Midweek 2.png]

    [size=4][font=arial]Towards the weekend further bands of precipitation edging from the North West, looking heavy for SW Germany, Switzerland and the French Alps, fringing Austria at times. Snow above 1000m or so to start this falling to around 400m later. [/font][/size]

    So plenty of precipitation for much of the Alps, however looking a far bit drier for Italy. Currently modeling also suggests a fair bit of precipitation for Thursday into Friday, so uncertainty at this stage.
    [attachment=240967:Rmgfs120sum.gif] [attachment=240966:Rmgfs144sum 23 jan.gif]
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Freezing Levels (Based on 12Hz GFS run – Fri 23 Jan)[/b]

    Sat – 400m-800m S Germany, N Switzerland, N and E Austria, 800-1200m French Alps and the remainder of Austria and Switzerland, 1400-1600m N Italy
    Sun – 400m-600m Germany, French Alps, most of Switzerland and Austria, 600m-1000m for the Italy and the southern areas of Switzerland and Austria
    [attachment=240955:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24.png][/font][/size] [attachment=240964:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24b.png][attachment=240954:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 48.png]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mon – 400-800m Austria, S Germany, N and E Switzerland, 800-1000, NW Italy, French Alps, 1000-1400, Far NW Italy, SW Switzerland
    Tue – 600-800m Central and Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland, 1000-1400 S Switzerland, N Italy, SW Austria, French Alps
    [attachment=240953:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 72.png] [attachment=240952:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 96.png]

    Wed– 400-800m Austria, S Germany, N and E Switzerland, 1000m-1400m French Alps SW Austria and S Switzerland
    Thurs – 400-800m Eastern Austria 1000m-1400m French Alps SW Austria and S Switzerland
    Fri – 400m-600m Germany, French Alps, most of Switzerland and Austria, 600m-800m for the southern areas of Switzerland and Austria, 800-1000m Northern Italy
    [attachment=240951:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 120.png] [attachment=240950:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 144.png] [attachment=240949:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]So while not quite cold as recently, it looks mostly cold this week, with temps below freezing all week at high level, and at worst freeze thaw at lower levels. And no blowtorch southwesteries. There will be frequent precipitation much of this light to moderate, it seems likely that above 1500m all of this will be snow, with 1000-1500m seeing the vast of precipitation falling as snow, with more of a mix below this. [/font][/size]

    All in all, this should mean an improvement in snow conditions for most of the Alps.
  25. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]

    It was forecast last week that a mixed week was in prospect for the Alps, and so it proved. The weekend was mild as excepted, however it turned out milder than I anticipated due to the foehn effect with parts of Austria hitting close to 22c. It did turn colder threrafer with some snow with some decent conditions in places.

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptic Pattern[/b][/font][/size]
    Not the first time this winter there is a pattern change underway as I write this summary, this time turning colder from the North West with some precipitation and some snow edging in.

    The current pattern over the Alps in rather unsettled with winds from the south West, but a Returning Polar Maritime air mass, with 850HPa temps of around 0c to 5c.

    Turning colder tomorrow with winds from the North west and this reducing the snow level for tonight’s precipitation.
    [attachment=239374:Alps 16 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=239369:Alps 16 Jan +48.JPG]
    Into Sunday, and the Alps sees slightly higher pressure from the west, and settling down a bit with temps around average.
    [attachment=239377:Alps 16 Jan + 24b.JPG] [attachment=239366:Alps 16 Jan +72.JPG]

    For the start of next week and into midweek, lowish pressure and tuning colder with further showery outbreaks, 850HPa temps below- 5c from the North.
    [attachment=239365:Alps 16 Jan +96.JPG] [attachment=239364:Alps 16 Jan +120.JPG]
    Perhaps the cold mixing out a bit on Thursday, before turning much colder with a North East blast by Friday.
    [attachment=239363:Alps 16 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=239362:Alps 16 Jan +168.JPG]


    [b]Precipitation [/b]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b]
    Heavy precipitation overnight for the French Alps, Switzerland SW Austria, and N Italy. This moving further east by noon, with precipitation for S Germany , the French Alps, N Italy, W Austria, .
    Snow 700m IN NW Alps, rising to 1000-1400m generally further South East, however the snow level dropping to 800-1000m later.
    [attachment=239420:ALps Snow 16 Jan + 9.png] [attachment=239419:ALps Snow 16 Jan +27.png]

    This continuing overnight into Sunday, for central parts of the Alps, and drier further west. Drying up further overnight but showers continuing in Eastern Switzerland and W Austria for a time, snow levels dropping to 400-600m overnight. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=239416:ALps Snow 16 Jan +36.png]

    Dry to start on Monday, but outbreaks of snow edging in from the West for France and W Switzerland overnight into Tuesday. This edging east into Central areas by afternoon, but showery by now. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=239418:ALps Snow 16 Jan +99.png] [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Patchy showers on mostly snow over the Alps on Wednesday.[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Showers from the south on Thursday with some heavy precipitation over Italy for a time, snow above 1000-1200m[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=239417:ALps Snow 16 Jan +153.png]
    Showers mostly of snow edging down from the South on Friday. [/font][/size]

    High amounts of precipitation this week, perhaps especially for the North of Italy.

    [attachment=239421:Alps 16 Jan Rmgfs144sum.gif]
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 12Hz GFS run – Fri 16 Jan)

    Sat – 800m-1000m Germany, French Alps, N and W Switzerland, NW Austria, 1000m-1400m SE Switzerland, Central Austria, NW Italy, 1600m -1800m SE Austria and NE Italy [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Sun – 600m-800m Germany, French Alps, N and W Switzerland, NW Austria, 800m-1200m SE Switzerland, Central and SE Austria, Italy [/font][/size]
    [attachment=239389:Alps 16 Jan Temp +24.png] [attachment=239388:Alps 16 Jan Temps +48.png]

    [size=4][font=arial]Mon – 600m-800m Germany, NW Switzerland, NE Austria, 1000m-1200m French Alps, S and Switzerland, Italy, SE Austria
    Tue – 200m-600m Germany, French Alps, N and W Switzerland, NW Austria, 600m-1000m SE Switzerland, Central and SE Austria, Italy[/font][/size]
    [attachment=239386:Alps 16 Jan Temps +72.png] [attachment=239385:Alps 16 Jan Temps +96.png]
    [size=4][font=arial]Wed - 400m-600m Germany, French Alps, N and W Switzerland, NW Austria, 600m-1200m SE Switzerland, Central and SE Austria, Italy
    Thurs – 400m-600m Germany, N Switzerland, 1000m-1600m S Switzerland, Austria, French Alps, N Italy
    Fri – 400m-600m Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps 800m-1400m S Switzerland, Austria, French Alps, 1400m - 1600m N Italy[/font][/size]
    [attachment=239384:Alps 16 Jan Temps +120.png] [attachment=239383:Alps 16 Jan Temps + 144.png] [attachment=239382:Alps 16 Jan Temps +168.png]
    [b]Summary[/b]

    After recent wild fluctuations of temperature, a much steadier week this week, temps always on the cold site, but never bitterly cold by day. but cold enough for most of the precipitation be of snow, and severe frost by night.

    Several weeks ago I made the point that perhaps the snow after Christmas would make the season, a rather erroneous statement in hindsight.

    So I will not repeat this error, however one week form now, the Alps should be in a far snowier position and with the chance of further cold weather still to come.
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