J10

Summer may arrive Just in time for Glastonbury after heavy rain early next week Some Hot weather is possible for Glastonbury for the middle of next week, perhaps 29c on Wednesday if GFS is to be believed. However rain is expected early next week, which might cause mud and perhaps unsettled over the weekend. But still more promising than it looked a day or so ago. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/events/Glastonbury/OtherStagefriday2004.jpg View the full blog here

Summer may arrive Just in time for Glastonbury after heavy rain early next week Some Hot weather is possible for Glastonbury for the middle of next week, perhaps 29c on Wednesday if GFS is to be believed. However rain is expected early next week, which might cause mud and perhaps unsettled over the weekend. But still more promising than it looked a day or so ago. View the full blog here

With the plume of hot air edging Northwardsinto France, Very high 20s are certainly possible, if the Easterly winds beings that over to Western UK. But just to show 3 options, here are todays GFS runs for 3-6pm next Wednesday in terms of Max temperature. Rain is still likely at times Sunday and for the start of Next Week.

That rare thing is happening, the weather is looking to improve for Glastonbury, with some very warm and mostly dry weather for late next week. There is the big caveat that wet weather beforehand - notably Sunday to Tuesday which might give mud issues. However in any case looking a fair bit better than a few days ago. GFS Ensembles Still looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall for Sunday to Tuesday Next Week, but drier thereafter. Turning much warmer into next week, with most ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 20c, with better agreement from the ensembles. Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and only dropping slightly into next weekend, but no deep areas of Low Pressure. Synoptic Summary / Overview There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, there remains uncertainty about where the Low pressure is likely to be. Looking at today’s runs, the low pressure seems to be further away to the South West of the UK for Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps allowing conditions to remain mostly dry. By Friday the Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, winds are likely to veer to a South Westerly direction with fronts set to edge towards the UK on Friday and especially Saturday. Big differences remain for the Sunday. Wednesday and Thursday looking a little drier than initially though, with more in the way of rain or showers over the weekend. GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Thursday 20 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts Wednesday 26 June – After early showers edge away to the west, looking mostly dry for the afternoon and evening. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 28-29c based on 12Hz, which the plume be further west on this run, than other which suggest closer to 24c. Thursday 27 June – With High pressure trying to hang on over Southern parts of the UK, staying mostly dry, and with a Easterly wind remaining very warm with temperatures perhaps reaching 28c again. Friday 28 June – An area of Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, with Westerly to South Westerly winds over Southern UK, there is a risk of fronts edging in from the South West, but any rain looking mostly patchy . Temperatures looking a lot cooler for Western areas in the low 20c. Weekend – Weak Low Pressure over the UK with the chance of some showers, more especially on Sunday. Temperatures currently projected to be low 20c on Saturday, and high teens on Sunday. ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Thursday 20 June] High Pressure to the North West of the UK on the Wednesday, with weaker High Pressure over Southern areas, the plume edging over much of the UK, so some very warm weather likely. Low Pressure to the West of the UK on Friday similar to GFS. Low Pressure forecast to be the over the UK for Sunday. NOAA [Synoptic pattern for 26 June - 30 June) to follow

Still Looking rather mixed, no washout, with rain (and mud) is likely at times The weekend outlook still uncertain. View the full blog here

GFS Ensembles [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] Still looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall before and during the festival period. Turning milder into next week, with some ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 20c, although the operational runs moving away from this. Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and dropping slighly into next weekend, but no deep areas of Low Pressure. Synoptic Summary / Overview There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, with lesser agreement on how much if there is low pressure over southern areas or whether tis stays away to the South / West. There is also a plume likely over NW Mainland Europe (20c+ 850HPa), which may or may not edge Westwards over the UK. Thereafter it seems likely that there will be weak areas of low pressure by Friday, with further uncertainty over any “proper” low pressure for the weekend. So some rainfall likely over most days of the festival, with no complete washout. GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts Wednesday 26 June – Dry to start but showers developing later in the day from the South, these might be heavy. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 22-23c (if the plume edges further West, 25-26c would be more likely) Thursday 27 June – With weak low pressure likely for Southern areas, showers may develop widely, temperatures likely to be cooler than Wednesday at around 20-21c Friday 28 June – An area of Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, with Westerly winds over Southern UK. Further showers are possible but currently looking lighter than Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures around 20-21c Weekend – the 12Hz keeps the Low Pressure to the West of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure developing, keeping things mostly dry with temperatures of around 20c, However other runs notably the 06Hz run has Low Pressure over the UK and much more unsettled and wetter. ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] High Pressure to the North West of the UK on the Wednesday, with weaker High Pressure over Southern areas, the plume staying more the east of the UK. Slowly turning more unsettled with Low Pressure over the Uk on the Friday, this weakening over the weekend. NOAA [Synoptic pattern for 25 June - 29 June) Higher pressure around the UK, with low pressure to the South West

Mixed weather currently most likely for Glastonbury. Although a lot of mixed signals at the moment. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/rain/showerapr2.jpg View the full blog here

GFS Ensembles [06Hz - Tuesday 18 June] Looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall before and during the festival period. Turning milder into next week, with some ensembles gonig for some very high 850HPa above 20c. Pressure dropping slighly into next week, but no deep areas of Low Pressure. GFS Ensembles [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June] Drier than the 06Hz ensembles, and moving away from the plume scenario that some earlier runs suggested. GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June] In the run up to the festival next week, there is expected to be High Pressure centred to the North of Scotland (1032mb), with Easterly winds for southern parts of the UK. Wednesday is set to see Low Pressure edging in from the South / South West bring the risk of some showery rain which may be heavy. Winds should be Easterly bringing some very warm 850Hpa possibly as high as 20c. Temperatures low to mid 20s. Thursday sees Low Pressure to the South West of the UK but currently looking mostly dry over the UK with Easterly winds over Southern UK, temperatures likely in the low 20s. Friday sees weak Low Pressure over the UK centred over Ireland, with some weak showers again possible over southern UK, Temperatures high teens / Low 20s. The weekend looks rather unsettled with temperatures in the low 20s. At this stage, Saturday looks drier with more in the way of showers on Sunday. ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June] ECM seems a day ahead in the evolution with the chart for Tuesday next week very similar to the GFS Wednesday chart, it also hints at the potential warm 850HPa temps. But looking rather unsettled when the gates open. Summary Looking mostly unsettled over the Glastonbury festival with some precipitation likely, no washout but by no means perfect and with some rain at times before the festival starts some mud issues seem likely.

Met Office Saturday 22 June to Monday 1 July Saturday should see a fair amount of settled and sunny weather as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south of the UK, with scattered showers becoming mostly confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland. High pressure will give way to another Atlantic low pressure through Sunday and into the following week bringing changeable weather with bands of rain crossing most areas at times, but more especially affecting northern and western parts. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and possibly become warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather. Temperatures mostly near normal. GFS Ensembles [06Hz - Monday 17 June] Looking mostly dry over the next week, but some rain around the 23-25 June, just before the gates open. Pressure around 1010mb-1020mb for the festival duration. GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Monday 17 June] Charts showing Wednesday, Friday and Sunday covering the festival period. On Wednesday, GFS 12Hz shows High Pressure over the UK, with Max Temperatures of 24c, with heavy showers edging up from the South West. On Thursday Pressure lowering from the South with an Easterly wind with Max Temperatures of 22c, however looking mostly dry for South Western areas of the UK. By Friday, Low Pressure over the UK still on the warm side with temperatures around 23c, with the chance of some showers. On Saturday, Low Pressure with North Westerly winds, temperatures 19c with the chance of some outbreaks of rain. On Sunday, pressure building from the South West, and turning drier after early rain, temperatures around 17c. ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Monday 17 June] On the Wednesday, cool and unsettled with Low Pressure with 850HPa around 8c. On the Thursday, the Low Pressure edges away to the east, with High Pressure edging in from the west, still cool with NW winds. NOAA The 6-10 day chart [23 -27 June] shows low pressure towards the South West of the UK. The 8-14 day chart [25 - 1 July] shows High pressure to the west of the UK, neutral pressure for SE UK.

Friday 21 June to Sunday 30 June Showers are likely in the north on Friday, some heavy and thundery, whilst it should remain drier further south. A ridge of high pressure should then bring a good deal of fine and at times sunny weather next weekend, before showery rain arrives in the west later on Sunday. Low pressure is likely to bring more unsettled and perhaps cool weather to the northwest of the UK through the following week, as further bands of rain push in from the Atlantic. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 16 Jun 2019 GFS Ensembles The ensembles not quite as good tonight, with more runs having some rain at times over the next 2 weeks, especially around the 23-25 June. GFS Operational Run Low Pressure with NW winds for both the Wednesday and the Friday, with a ridge of High Pressure on the Sunday. ECM Operational Run ECM shows a ridge of High Pressure for the Wednesday. NOAA Probably the most positive aspects of tonight's runs, this looks suggest High Pressure in Control (24-30 June). Overall Normally by now you get an idea of the weather, but this year it seems 3 steps forward 2 back

I was in Bordeaux for the Euros mid June 2016, the days I was there corresponded almost perfectly to the bad weather there. http://www.meteociel.fr/climatologie/villes.php?code=7510&mois=6&annee=2016 As for here, June 2019 is the cloudiest since 2012.

Thursday 20 June to Saturday 29 June Low pressure likely to be dominant to the west or northwest, with frontal systems periodically affecting the UK. Windy conditions are likely at times, especially in the northwest. The changeable conditions are likely to bring bands of rain at times, these most frequently in the north and west. Brighter and showery periods are likely in-between. The south and southeast should have more in the way of drier and settled weather, but with the risk of thundery plumes being drawn northwards from the continent into southern parts of the UK at times. Temperatures will be mostly near normal, but warm at times in the east. Sometimes rather cool in the northwest. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 15 Jun 2019 GFS Ensembles The ensembles now starting to look pretty dry over the next 2 couple of weeks, (again excluding the faulty GFS control run) The GFS run again is on the unsettled side of the mean for the festival weekend, again with a general trend of dropping pressure around the festival. GFS Operational Run The 12Hz op run for a ridge of High Pressure when the gates open, but with lower pressure developing by Friday, with a ridge of higher pressure by the Sunday. Looking at the precipitation charts, dry until the Friday with a few showers over the weekend, probably not that bad overall.

Wednesday 19 June to Friday 28 June The changeable and showery theme looks set to continue, with low pressure situated to the northwest of the UK, and high pressure to the south or southwest. Showers mainly focused in the north and west, with strong winds at times. It will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes in between the showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the south and east. However, there is the risk of some heavy and thundery showers moving up from the south at times, particularly middle of next week and it my become very warm in the southeast for a time. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more settled and warm weather. Saturday 29 June to Saturday 13 July Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is likely at times in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, conditions will be similar, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, although the south and southeast will probably see the warmest and driest weather, with occasional thundery outbreaks. Temperatures will be near or slightly above the average for the time of year. GFS Ensembles Looking drier into next week and into the runup to the festival, More rain though is forecast over the period of the festival itself. Note the ongoing issue with the GFS run which is faulty. The GFS run again is an outlier and much more unetled than the ensmble mean, there is a trend for Pressure to drop around the festival, but not by as much as the operational run. GFS Operational Run The 12Hz op run for a ridge of High Pressure when the gates open, but with lower pressure over the weekend initally with a SW wind for the Friday veering NW by Sunday. Looking at the precipitation charts it would mean a fair amount of rain for the Glastonbury proably enough to cause mud problems.

Certainly would have needed them at "Download" festival. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-48627574

Similar to yesterday a wet overnight period but not as wet as yesterday, and after the last bit of rain cleared before 10. A dry day with some brighter spells / sunny intervals into the afternoon. Max Temp 16c

Tuesday 18 June to Thursday 27 June After an unsettled and cool first half of June, somewhat drier and more settled weather is likely to develop for many during the second half of the month. Although next week may still be rather changeable and showery, it will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes. Southern areas may become very warm for a time, although with the chance of thundery rain spreading up from the south at times, perhaps affecting central parts, which will preclude any longer spells of dry weather. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more widely settled and warm weather. Thursday 27 June to Thursday 11 July Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather. Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 13 Jun 2019 GFS Ensembles After this weeks washout, a very similar theme to what was suggested yesterday, slowly turning drier with pressure generally building over the next week or so and into the runup to the festival, without any real stunning summer weather. The ensembles look fairly dry with no massively wet weather incoming, note the operational run is not on the ensemble, suggesting a technical issue with GFS. GFS Operational Run The 12Hz op run goes for a rather unsettled start of the festival, perhaps this is a trend that after improving weather before the festival, it gets worse over the festival period itself, or perhaps just a blip.

After overnight rain leaving surface water, a dry day with very limited brightness. Not as bad as some but still very disappointing for June. Max Temp 16c

Monday 17 June to Wednesday 26 June After a rather unsettled weekend, Monday will see warm sunny spells for many. However, showers are still possible, especially in the west and northwest where they could be heavy, with the risk of thunder. The south and southeast will likely see drier and more settled conditions through next week though. Here we will see the warmest temperatures and it could be even very warm for parts of the southeast. It will stay windy in the northwest though, with a risk of showers continuing here towards the end of June. The more settled conditions in the south are then likely to extend further north and west, with lighter winds and warmer temperatures than of late likely. Thursday 27 June to Thursday 11 July Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather. Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 12 Jun 2019 GFS Ensembles After this weeks washout, slowly turning drier and more settled over next week and into the runup to the festival, without any real stunning summer weather. A few of the op runs look decidedly wet around the festival, but while some rain is possible there appears to be a fault with the precipitation on the 12Hz op run. GFS operational run A decent start for the festival, but rather unsettled by the Friday, however this does look an outlier at the moment. NOAA Charts Slowly showing more settled conditions over the UK before the festival.

Wednesday 26 June to Wednesday 10 July Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest though there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather. Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Tue 11 Jun 2019

Tuesday 25 June to Tuesday 9 July The forecast through this period is very uncertain. Presently the preferred solution is for some spells of unsettled weather to effect the UK through the period, although probably interspersed with more in the way of drier, more settled spells than during the previous period. Winds should mostly be light, with temperatures generally recovering to around normal for the time of year. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 10 Jun 2019 Perhaps a little drier after this week. The first GFS run after the gates open.

Monday 24 June to Monday 8 July The expected weather conditions in this period remain very uncertain, but at present the most likely scenario is that we will continue to see occasional spells of wet and windy weather, however there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal, or perhaps slightly above normal for the time of year. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 9 Jun 2019 Ensembles Generally looking unsettled over much of June with some rain at times and not looking as promising as a few days ago. However pressure edging up towards the end of June. It will be interesting if someone can keep us updated with on site conditions with the recent rain and the potential for some heavy rain at times this week.

Sunday 23 June to Sunday 7 July Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 8 Jun 2019

Saturday 22 June to Saturday 6 July Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too as we move towards the end of June. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Fri 7 Jun 2019

Friday 21 June to Friday 5 July Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 6 Jun 2019 Looking at the NOAA charts, higher pressure to the North of the UK with lower pressure off the south coast of the Uk.

Thursday 20 June to Thursday 4 July Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures. Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 5 Jun 2019