J10
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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests
J10 replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close between the top 2, Quicksilver1989 and DiagonalRedLine who both got it spot on this month. B87 is not that far behind in 3rd. Overall No change in the Top 3 so it remains Quicksilver1989, BornFromtheVoid and StationeryFront as the Top 3. Spreadsheet July 19 CET.xlsx -
Trends.xlsxLooking into this further, Relativistic and Ian are both correct. Max Temps have risen by an additional 0.1c (roughly) compared to Min Temps per decade. At least though I have learnt something from my incorrect assumption. MeanTempJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR INC 1961-1990 3.81 3.76 5.68 7.89 11.16 14.16 16.05 15.77 13.60 10.62 6.55 4.65 9.51 1971-2000 4.20 4.24 6.27 8.07 11.31 14.07 16.48 16.21 13.71 10.41 6.87 5.06 9.77 0.26 1981-2010 4.44 4.39 6.58 8.52 11.66 14.48 16.71 16.41 14.03 10.69 7.14 4.63 10.00 0.23 1991-2020 4.60 4.84 6.74 8.90 11.88 14.67 16.82 16.45 14.18 10.96 7.42 4.94 10.22 0.22 Min Temp JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR INC 1961-1990 1.21 0.96 2.26 3.96 6.75 9.73 11.68 11.46 9.64 7.20 3.64 2.04 5.91 1971-2000 1.56 1.32 2.90 4.08 6.78 9.69 11.94 11.71 9.75 7.00 3.94 2.46 6.12 0.22 1981-2010 1.75 1.38 3.08 4.30 7.13 10.02 12.17 11.95 10.02 7.29 4.24 1.96 6.30 0.18 1991-2020 1.91 1.79 3.09 4.57 7.33 10.11 12.18 12.04 10.12 7.55 4.48 2.20 6.48 0.17 Max Temp JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR INC 1961-1990 6.44 6.56 9.08 11.82 15.56 18.57 20.41 20.08 17.56 14.02 9.45 7.29 13.11 1971-2000 6.86 7.13 9.63 12.06 15.81 18.41 20.98 20.71 17.68 13.80 9.80 7.69 13.41 0.30 1981-2010 7.15 7.36 10.07 12.72 16.16 18.91 21.23 20.85 18.05 14.08 10.06 7.32 13.70 0.29 1991-2020 7.31 7.86 10.38 13.22 16.40 19.22 21.45 20.86 18.25 14.37 10.36 7.68 13.97 0.27
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August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
J10 replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
16.5c and 85.0mm. -
Dry again with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. 21c
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Dry here today with a mixture of cloud and some sunny intervals/spells. As the day has progressed more in the way of generally sunny conditions. Temps 22c.
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30c inland nearby today. After early cloud quickly cleared, a largely sunny morning and afternoon. More cloud edged in by around 6, with a fair amount of cloud generally since then. Dry at the moment, but some thunderstorms look menacing for the next few hours.
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June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests
J10 replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Seasonal This follows the June monthly result so Stationery Front leads from Thundershine and nn2013. Overall Quicksilver rises from 3rd to lead, BornFromtheVoid falls from 1st to 2nd with Stationery Front up to 3rd from 10th after winning this month. June 19 CET.xlsx -
June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests
J10 replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Monthly Records A clear winner this month with Stationery Front the only one to get it spot on. A further 2 were 0.1c out Thundershine and nn2013 while Roger J Smith and Quicksilver1989 were 0.2c out. The remainder of the Top 10 can be seen below. Seasonal and Overall figures to follow tomorrow. -
July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests
J10 replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
16.8 and 69.8 -
Max Temp locally 26c inland which was observed at 12. A mostly cloudy start to the afternoon with afternoon temps 20-22c. 20c at Mumbles.with a very mild night last night, with a minimum temp of 17c. A bit brighter with some sunny spells this evening.
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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer
J10 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'll transfer over my post from the heatwave thread. ---------------------------------------------------- 25c temperatures were today recorded over most of Wales, SW England (excluding Cornwall), NW England, W Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland, that is not a small percentage of the UK. It covered more of an area, than is often the case when London gets a warm spell, and NW Britain is stuck under damp and drizzly conditions. All 4 countries in the UK had 25c which is not something that happens every day, so when tomorrow it hits over 30c in the South East, it will largely confined to England. Locally I am not that bothered if we have technically received a heatwave, all i know is that the weather has been stunning for the past 3 days, with another decent day (at least) expected tomorrow. -------------------------------------------------- Once plumegate is over, it seems all parts will have received some very warm/hot weather, which is more notable than a typical "heatwave concentrated in London / SE England. -
25c temperatures were today recorded over most of Wales, SW England (excluding Cornwall), NW England, W Scotland and parts of Norther Ireland, that is not a small percentage of the UK. It covered more of an area, than is often the case when London gets a warm spell, and NW Britain is stuck under damp and drizzly conditions. All 4 countries in the UK had 25c which is not something that happens every day, so when tomorrow it hits over 30c in the South East, it will largely confined to England. Locally I am not that bothered if we have technically received a heatwave, all i know is that the weather has been stunning for the past 3 days, with another decent day (at least) expected tomorrow.
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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer
J10 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the GFS has struggled massively with this setup, and massively underdone temps. UKV was going for 25c today at 6pm for Conwy area and is going for 35c for London area for tomorrow. Higher resolution models are better generally with on the ground detail, and so this is proving. As for Foehn sometimes the models pick this up, but the higher resolution models are better. But IMO the maritime influence is the one that "the new improved" GFS is really struggling with . -
Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer
J10 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You are correct Hottest temp in Wales 30c in Llanfairfechan, with the foehn effect coming into play. The forecast temp there today was around 23c. -
Looking at the Weatheronline data, https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1561748400&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0 over 15 sites might hit the Heatwave criteria tomorrow. (with 3 days over the threshold criteria), with many of these being in the West, this is probably unlikely but something to keep an eye on. In addition to that some of the sites hitting 25c today included Aviemore, Capel Curig, Altnharra and Lossiemouth, something which does not happen every day.
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Another lovely summer's day, not quite as sunny as recent days, wtih some high cloud at times, which seemed to be attracted by a magnet towards the sun. Max Temps 24c Mumbles with a big sea breeze today, 28c inland.
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How hot will it be? Temperature Competition
J10 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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27c nearby here today too, cloudless all day some stunning summer weather.