Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

J10

Site forecast team
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,969

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by J10

  1. J10
    This is the 12th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    Previous Runs
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    Generally looking mostly settled with High Pressure to the South West, and a ridge of High pressure over the rest of the UK on this Sunday.
    [attachment=216719:ECM 19 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

    The remainder of the forecast will cover only the festival period itself.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    For Wednesday the 25th June, High Pressure staying around the UK with winds from the North East so not hot by any means, but dry for the South West, similar with Friday with High pressure on the scene, mostly settled and dry, by Sunday the high pressure moves away to the north allowing low pressure to push in from the south, with some moderate to heavy rainfall for late Sunday.

    [attachment=216726:GFS 19 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216728:GFS 19 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216727:GFS 19 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    For the 12Hz run High Pressure staying for South and Western parts of the UK for the start of the festival, so mostly dry, the pressure slowly tending to weaken as moves to Friday but mostly dry at this stage however by the weekend low pressure edging in from the west, with some moderate rainfall at times, et at times, but no absolute washout.

    [attachment=216729:GFS 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216737:GFS 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216736:GFS 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
    So both GFS runs have a dry start to the festival through till Friday, both with some rainfall expected over the weekend, not as good as some previous runs, but no washout in either case.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just above 1015mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp / wet runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 5c @850HPA rising to around 7c, by the Sunday.
    [attachment=216720:Ensemble Temps 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216721:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216722:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just below 1020mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 7c @850HPA and staying there.
    [attachment=216740:Ensemble Temps 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216741:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216742:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 12Hz.png]

    The 12Hz runs are a bit better than the 06Hz ensembles.
    [b]ECM / UKMO [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]
    By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain, over the weekend a South West flow with High pressure ridging in souther areas, so possibly quite warm with maybe a little dampness, but no heavy rain likely.
    [attachment=216718:ECM 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216717:ECM 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216716:ECM 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

    The ensembles are slightly better than the op run to start with High Pressure to the south west, however for both the 27th and 29th runs, the the ensembles runs are worse than the op run with lower pressure for the UK.
    [attachment=216744:ECM Ens 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216743:ECM Ens 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216745:ECM Ens 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain and there is also a possibility of some rain to start on Saturday but turning drier later over the weekend with High pressure ridging back up from the South West.

    [attachment=216748:ECM 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216747:ECM 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216746:ECM 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]UKMO[/b]

    High Pressure over the UK to start the festival according to the UKMO.
    [attachment=216723:UKMO From 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]

    [b]NOAA[/b]

    Neutral pressure over western UK, with an upper trough to the east of the UK.
    [attachment=216739:500 HPA 18 June.gif]
    [b]Summary[/b]

    [b]Positives[/b]
    UKMO run shows a settled start to the festival
    GFS / GEFS Ensembles suggest a dry settled start to the festival
    [b]Neutral[/b]
    NOAA has neutral upper pressure for western areas.
    [b]Negatives[/b]
    GFS / GFS Ensembles has things turning a little bit more unsettled over the weekend with some rain
    ECM takes thing rather unsettled to start the festival.
    ECM Ensembles keep a rather unsettled theme for the festival weekend as well.

    Overall a mixed set of charts today and a slight worsening of the score to 5.5. But no real washout charts in the offing.

    [b]Links [/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  2. J10
    This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

    The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
    The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
    The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
    The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

    So a definite trend towards a wet festival. Is today the day to stall or reverse this trend.

    [b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO [b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][/b]

    [b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
    [attachment=253397:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253404:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253410:ECM 19th June 00Hz +72.png] [attachment=253425:ECM 19th June 12Hz +72.png] [attachment=253406:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 72.gif] [attachment=253427:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 72.gif]

    The General theme remains the same. Low Pressure to the North East, with a wave moving east across southern areas of the UK probably during the morning, this is likely to give some rainfall for Glastonbury, although the 12Hz run pushes this a little further south.

    A ridge of High Pressure builds over Tuesday, keeping things dry and helping to dry the ground after Mondays rain.
    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253398:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253403:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253405:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253409:ECM 19th June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253424:ECM 19th June 12Hz +120.png] [attachment=253426:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 120.gif]

    Today there is better agreement of a ridge of High Pressure over Southern areas, with the rain reserved for Northern parts of the UK, so looking dry for Glastonbury. Max Temps low 20s.

    The fronts to the west continue to edge closer to the UK on Thursday, but the ridge holding for the moment, keeping things mostly dry, temps again low 20s.
    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253399:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253402:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253408:ECM 19th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253423:ECM 19th June 12Hz +168.png]

    Friday continues to look the problematic day, there is currently decent agreement between the models that some rainfall is likely to move east during the day, most likely in the morning. The operational GFS runs show the heaviest of the rainfall further north, with moderate rain for Glastonbury in the morning, with showers for the afternoon. Pinning the details on this has a major impact on conditions for the weekend. Temps high teens / low 20s.

    Operational runs today have reduced the rainfall projection for next Friday compared to yesterdays runs.

    Saturday looks mostly dry at this stage, with some sort of ridge of high pressure. Temps mid to high teens.

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253400:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253401:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253407:ECM 19th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253422:ECM 19th June 12Hz +216.png]
    A lot of uncertainty for Sunday at the moment, with it looking rather unsettled, ECM has it quite wet and GFS perhaps a little drier.

    [b]2. Ensembles [/b]

    [size=3][b]Pressure[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253414:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253412:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253415:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png]
    These show average pressure of 1020mb dropping back on Monday as Forecast, and then rising back up to 1020mb, so better confidence of a more settled Wednesday and better runs than yesterday suggested. Pressure then dropping back a little on Friday to just above 1010mb, before perhaps recovering a bit of the weekend. It is noticeable that the operational runs for both 06Hz and 12Hz are towards the more settled of the runs.

    [size=3][b]Rainfall [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253416:Ensemble Rain 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253411:Ensemble Rain 19 June 06Hz.png][attachment=253417:Ensemble Rain 19 June 12Hz.png]

    These continue to show a number of ensembles going for periods of rain during the festival, although Monday does look a little drier. Again the operational GFS runs (06Hz and 12Hz) are drier then the ensembles runs.

    [b][size=3]Temps [/size][/b]
    [attachment=253418:Ensemble Temp 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253413:Ensemble Temp 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253419:Ensemble Temp 19 June 12Hz.png]

    These show cool weather on Monday, and then temps steadily rising until Friday, reaching +8c to +10c (850Hpa) by Friday, and then staying similar over the weekend, so looking warmer than was the case yesterday.

    [b]Rainfall (GFS Operational)[/b]

    Rain expected Monday, and then some on Friday, but amounts not as great as suggested yesterday.

    [b][attachment=253440:Rhgfs8414.gif] [attachment=253439:Rhgfs14414.gif] [attachment=253438:Rhgfs18614.gif] [attachment=253437:Rhgfs22514.gif][/b]






    [b]Summary [/b]
    A mass of conflicting data tonight, however lets start with the good news, the operational GFS runs are much better than yesterday, in terms of being drier. It is looking more settled generally than was the case yesterday for Wednesday, which is now looking mostly dry. Also it looking a bit warmer for the festival, with temps in the drier weather reaching the 20s at time. There is now a glimmer of hope for the festival being decent, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

    However there are still concerns, the ensembles remain troubling in terms of pressure and more especially rainfall with a number still having enough rainfall to cause mud problems. The operational run forecast some rain on Friday, but will this be enough to cause problems.

    Saturday looks not bad generally and Sunday looks rather unsettled once again.

    If it was based on operational GFS. the rating would be 5, the ensembles a 6 and ECM 6.5.

    So on this basis my rating today is 6.0, an improvement on yesterday.
    [attachment=253428:glaston 19th June.JPG]

    Pack those wellies, they may well be needed during Friday and maybe at times during the weekend.

    But to end on a more positive note, pack your sun scream as well. :D
  3. J10
    Time for the latest update,

    Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here

    [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670[/url]

    Starting off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 15th June run]

    I'll bring the days forward to be consistent with the op runs of previous days.

    Charts shown in order (168 Sat 22nd June, 288 Tue 25 June, 312 Wed 26 June, 360 Fri 28 June)

    The trend has been for High Pressure to slowly build from the South West, but some runs such as the 00Hz operation run today, went against this somewhat.

    Looking specifically at the 12Hz op run, in the short term the precipitation forecast for the next 6 days has been reduced, with the majority of the rain over the next 48 hours. 15mm is more than manageable.

    [attachment=174462:Rmgfs144sum 15.gif]

    The general flow of the weather is for the Azores High Pressure to the far South west, and lower pressure further north, at times low pressure push westward/ South Eastwards over the top of the High pressures. So never settled and a changeable theme. The op run shows the worst of the Low Pressure staying over the north of the UK, as opposed to the 00Hz run which had it much further south for next weekend, so while never staying completely dry over Glastonbury, rainfalls totals not massive.

    Into Glastonbury week, Pressure starting to rise significantly from the South West, however a fly in the ointment in that a LP system is forecast over the UK for Thursday and Friday which could give appreciable rainfall.

    [attachment=174466:GFS 15 1.JPG] [attachment=174465:GFS 15 2.JPG] [attachment=174464:GFS 15 3.JPG] [attachment=174463:GFS 15 4.JPG]

    So very much a mixed picture from GFS today, good news in that it looks drier/less wet over the next couple of days and that the 12Hz keeps Low Pressure largely effecting Northern areas for next week. but bad news in the chance of some unsettled weather for the festival itself, each of today's op GFS runs has had some unsettled weather at times over the festival period.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 15th June run]

    [attachment=174473:GEFS 15 06 1.png] [attachment=174472:GEFS 15 06 2.png] [attachment=174471:GEFS 15 06 3.png] [attachment=174470:GEFS 15 06 4.png]

    Pressure is generally set to rise to over 1020mb by mid the coming week, a brief dip is expected next weekend but back over 1020mb by the start of the festival, before dipping a bit at the end.

    Rainfall shows a few peaks, firstly this weekend and to a lesser extent next weekend, apart this not completely dry, but no real wet weather, with the exception of the op run blip towards the end.

    These are the most promising ensembles seen for a number of days.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 12Hz 15th June run]

    [attachment=174498:GEFS 15 12 1.gif] [attachment=174497:GEFS 15 12 2.gif]

    Again this shows Pressure quickly building up from the South West, and more settled than the Operational runs.

    The Somerset charts were not available.
    [b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 15th June]
    Note these are raw charts, these are not modified by forecasters at weekend.

    [attachment=174490:610day.03 15.gif] [attachment=174489:814day.03 15.gif]

    For the first time in a while the trough has lifted away from the UK, with neutral conditions over the UK at the 8-14 days range.

    [b]ECM[/b] [based on 00Hz 15th June run]

    Charts shown in order (144 Fri 21 June, 168 Sat 22 June, 240 Tues 25 June)
    [attachment=174476:ECM 15a 144.JPG] [attachment=174481:ECM 15a 192.gif] [attachment=174474:ECM `15a 240.JPG]

    Generally an unsettled theme, but the worst of the Low Pressure over Northern areas, and not too bad for Glastonbury, however Tuesday (T+240) looks a bit more troublesome as the LP would most likely move across eastwards across southern areas at the start of the festival. In contrast the ECM ensembles has pressure building up slowly from the south west.

    [b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 15th June run]

    [attachment=174478:ECM 15b 144.gif] [attachment=174484:ECM 15b 192.gif] [attachment=174488:ECM 15b 240.gif]

    Again generally an unsettled theme, but the worst of the Low Pressure over Northern areas, however it tends to develop the Low Pressure a little but more for next weekend. A ridge of High Pressure looks likely to follow but with a Low Pressure to the west again looking ominous.

    [b]Summary [/b]
    A general theme at the moment of High Pressure not far away of the South West of the UK, however how dominant this will be is very much in debate. Low Pressure systems look likely to move Eastwards across northern areas from the middle of next week onwards, southern parts of the the UK should be drier, but some runs today have some shown these Low pressures system on a slightly more southerly track at times, giving a bit more rain for South Western England next weekend and around the start of the Glastonbury festival.
    Conversely the ensembles look a bit drier and maintain the theme of pressure rises from the South West.

    [b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]

    Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5.5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but no washout likely.
    Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4.5/10 Today's models show the next 6 days to be drier than previous runs, reducing the risk of a mudbath.
    Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.

    [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]

    Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average,but pre festival rain could make ground underfoot wet and cause some mud on site, but probably without actually mud bath conditions.
  4. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    Conditions continue to be very good acorss the Alps after a lot of snow this winter, despite rather mixed weather over the past few days.
    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]

    Further snowfall is also likely in many places for the next few days, before things shouled settled down agin around midweek, and it slowly turning midler from the west.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8473"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8473[/url] <- Further Snow expected across the Alps

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    Currently the main players in the synoptic pattern is the Azores High which as so often this winter is displaced further north and east than normal (1035-1040mb), centered to the west of Northern Spain, but influencing conditions far further north including the UK with a WNW flow of winds. The Russian high remains in play around 1050mb. There is low Pressure from the south of Greenland, through Iceland and into Eastern Europe. The Polar Vortex is situated further west than has been the case so far this winter, allowing slightly higher pressure in the Greenland area.
    [attachment=127768:20 Jan Current.JPG]

    Not much synoptic change by tomorrow, pressure though slightly building over Greenland to 1035mb, a NW flow over the UK bringing cool conditions to most areas, quite mild over most of NW Europe including the Alps, generally colder in Eastern areas and over Scandinavia .
    [attachment=127755:20 Jan +24.JPG]

    Low Pressure again for Scandinavia and N and Eastern Europe, the UK on the dividing line with the more settled and milder conditions for the South West, colder for the NE you go in the UK, which largely is the same dividing line as is the case across Europe .
    [attachment=127757:20 Jan +48.JPG]

    Monday sees the pattern move slightly further East, the Azores High ridging NE and starting to make things more settled again for the UK, but again with low pressure for much of Scandinavia and North Eastern Europe, and cool or cold here. Cool for the UK and NW Europe, rather mild over much of Southern Europe.
    [attachment=127759:20 Jan +72.JPG]

    High Pressure over Russia starting to influence conditions more over Northern Scandinavia and looking cold here. High Pressure (0130mb0 remaining over Greenland, and the Azores high feeding in milder SW winds over the UK ahead of a Low Pressure in the Atlantic looking to push over the UK. Mild again over Southern Europe, but cold over much of Central and Northern Europe including much of the Alps.

    [attachment=127761:20 Jan +96.JPG]

    The low pressure slowly moves east by Wednesday with the High Pressure to the NE starting to act as a blocking high. Remaining mild and unsettled over the NW and North Western Europe, remaining rather cold over much of Eastern Europe, with the east of the Alps, much colder than the western half.

    [attachment=127763:20 Jan +120.JPG]

    Quite a lot of uncertainty towards the weekend, with the low pressure attempting to push east, and High Pressure (Siberian High) attempting to push in from the North East. So looking cold and settled for much of Central and Eastern Europe, cool to mild over Western Europe.
    [attachment=127765:20 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=127767:20 Jan +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b][b]1800m to 2100m [/b](West), 600m to 900m (E Austria)
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2400m (Italy), 1200 to 1800m (Austria/Switzerland), 900m to 1200m (NE Austria)
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2100m (Italy), 1200 to 1500m (Austria/Switzerland), 600m to 900m (NE Austria)
    [b]Tue 24 Jan - [/b]600m to 1000m (Generally), 1200m-1600m (South and West)
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b][b]1800m to 2100m [/b](West), 1000m to 1800m (E Switz and W Aust), 400m to 600m (E Austria)
    [b]Thur 26 Jan - [/b][b]1200m to 1800m [/b](Generally), 600m to 800m (far E Austria)
    [b]Fri 27 Jan -[/b] [b]1200m to 1800m [/b](Generally), 300m to 800m (far E Austria)

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b]600m to 1200m (West), 0m to 400m (East)
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2400m (Italy), 1200 to 1800m (Austria/Switzerland), 600m to 900m (NE Austria + Germany)
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]0m to 600m (Generally), Milder Italy
    [b]Tue 24 Jan - [/b]0m to 600m (Generally), 1200-1500m (Italy)
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b]0m to 800m (Generally), pockets higher in Italy
    [b]Thur 26 Jan -[/b] 0m to 800m (Generally), pockets higher
    [b]Fri 27 Jan[/b] - 0m to 400m (North+East), 600m to 1000m elsewhere

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b]+2c to +4c in South West, -4c to -5c in North and East,
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]+4c to +6c in South West, -3c to -5c in North and East
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]+1c to +3c in South West, -4c to -5c in North and East
    [b]Tue 24 Jan -[/b] +1c to +2c in South West, -5c to -6c in North and East
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b]+2c to +3c West, -6c to -7c in East
    [b]Thur 26 Jan -[/b] -3c to +2c West, -4c to -5c in East
    [b]Fri 27 Jan[/b] - variable

    Note in above charts South West, largely refers to W Italy.

    [b]Sat 21 Jan[/b]
    Heavy precipitation currently falling over western areas of the Alps will continue into Saturday and will be heavy over the Portes Du Soleil, Switzerland, with some precipitation also for NW Italy, W Austria and SW Germany, Snow Level generally around but closer to 600m in heavier bursts. Drier further east. By afternoon the precipitation edging further north for Switzerland, S Germany and W Austria, with the Snow level rising sharply to 1900m in the west, 1300m in Austria. The afternoon and evening seeing the precipitation continues but the heaviest of the precipitation edging across into Central Austria, SL 1100m in Austria, 1300-1600m further west.
    [attachment=127754:20 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday[/b] sees Patchy precipitation continuing overnight, moderate in central Austria, Snow levels back to around 700-1000m (north to south) with cooler conditions returning. The afternoon will generally be drier but with light precipitation continuing in Central Austria, and for Southern Germany into the evening.
    [attachment=127756:20 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday[/b] sees a north south split, it should be dry in the south, but patchy to moderate precipitation can be expected from the small hours right through to the afternoon for northern parts of the Alps. SL around 600-800m.
    [attachment=127758:20 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday [/b]sees patchy to moderate snow from the early hours for South Germany and NW Austria, becoming more extensive across Switzerland, Southern Germany and Western Austria by noon, before becoming rather confined to Central Austria by evening, largely falling as snow down to resort level.
    [attachment=127760:20 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday [/b]should be a drier day over the Alps. with a east west split, always colder in the East.
    [attachment=127762:20 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thursday[/b] should also be a dry day over the Alps. slightly milder generally across the Alps.
    [attachment=127764:20 Jan +144 Alps.JPG]

    Low certainty this far out for [b]Friday[/b], but a chance of a front pushing in from the west bringing heavy precipitation for France into Italy, snow to around 1000m.
    [attachment=127766:20 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    There could be another week of moderate snowfalls over the Alps, especially over higher slopes, but possibly turning drier and a bit milder midweek.

    Latest forecasts and snow reports:
    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]
  5. J10
    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Summary[/b]

    The deep freeze has been controlling the weather over the continent and the Alps for some time, however there are signs of it turning a little bit less cold and perhaps milder by the end of next week.

    Generally conditions are good, both in terms of the snow and sunshine, however it will be very cold to at least start the week.[/font][/size]

    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    Currently the Siberian High continues to dominate the weather in Europe, with very cold conditions generally, with only really the Iberian peninsula, parts of the UK and to an extent Northern Scandinavia missing out on the very cold conditions.

    Over the weekend there are signs of the high pressure finally retreating back east, however staying very cold over most of Europe and turning colder even over parts of Spain, and Northern Scandinavia, the UK remains milder as a mini HP cell bring tropical maritime air from the south west.

    For the mid of next week, a NW flow tries to push in over the UK, with a trough also pushing in through Scandinavia, cold over most of Europe, only the far west inc parts of the Uk missing out. Possibly turning a little milder over the UK from the north, As tropical maritime air feeds in around the HP.

    Towards the end of the week, this milder air over the UK, may start to feed in over the continent, including the Alps, lessening the bitterly cold spell.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 11 Feb - [/b]0-300m generally, 400m-700m France/Italy border
    [b]Sun [/b][b]12 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]0-300m generally, 300m-700m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Mon 13[/b][/b][b] Feb[/b][b][b] - [/b][/b]0-700m generally, 700m-1100m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 14 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b] 200m-700m generally, 700m-1100m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]500-800m generally, 1000m-1300m France/Italy border and S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b][/b]800-1000m North East, up to 2000m far South West
    [b][b]Fri 17 Feb -[/b][/b] 800-1000m, up to 2000m in many areas, possibly 2200m South West

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    [b]Sat 11 Feb to Wed 15 Feb[/b] - below freezing to sea level
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b][/b][b][b]0-800m Generally[/b][/b]
    [b][b]Fri 17 Feb -[/b][/b] 0-400m Generally, pockets towards Italy around 1400m

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 11 Feb - [/b]Generally below -10c, pockets -15c to -18c
    [b]Sun 12 Feb - [/b]-7 to -10c South, -12 to -14c North and East
    [b]Mon 13 Feb - [/b]-4 to -5c South, -7 to -11c Northand East
    [b]Tue 14 Feb -[/b] -4 to -5c generally, -8 to -9c East
    [b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]-2 to -4c South, -5 to -7c North and East
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb -[/b][/b] 0 to 3c South, 0 to -3c North
    [b]Fri 17 Feb[/b] - 2 to 5c West, 0 to -2c Eastern Austria[/font][/size]

    [b]Alps Daily Weather[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sat 11 Feb -[/b] Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Southern Austria and perhaps SE Switzerland from the east at times.
    [attachment=131136:10 Feb + 24 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Sun 12 Feb - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny, the odd snow flurry possible for Southern Austria

    [attachment=131137:10 Feb + 48 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Mon 13 Feb - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny to start, patchy snow edging into Germany initially and then spreading into N parts of both Austria and Switzerland later with the snow turning a bit heavier later for Germany.
    [attachment=131138:10 Feb + 72 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Tue 14 Feb - [/b]Overnight snow edging south, and some patchy snow possible in many places over the Alps.
    [attachment=131139:10 Feb + 96 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]Moderate snow edging south into Germany and later into most of Switzerland and Austria
    [attachment=131140:10 Feb + 120 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b]After the overnight snow clears, it should be mostly dry with only light precipitation
    [attachment=131141:10 Feb +144 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Fri 17 Feb[/b] -Mostly Dry and Sunny
    [attachment=131142:10 Feb +168 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]
  6. J10
    [b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
    Over the past week, the pattern has been very similar , with low pressure around the UK, which has given the very wet weather and flooding, High Pressure to the East, with the Alps being mostly mild with generally southerly winds.

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url] At this stage, the main resorts being features are the glaciers so the mild weather does not have the impact lower down the slopes.

    [b]Going Forward[/b]
    It cannot have escaped anyone's notice that Northern Blocking has been forecast toward next weekend, the big questions are is it still the case, and what impact does this have for the weather going forward. The charts shown were from Saturday 06Hz, and this has underplayed the cold potential compared to some other charts.

    [b]Daily Summaries [/b]

    [b]Sat 24 November - [/b]Low Pressure 985mb centred over Iceland and another low pressure centred West of France, set to push in over the UK over next 24-48 hours. North of UK; High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia, the Alps again in between weather systems, so mild West/SW flow over the Alps.


    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145607]



    [b]Sun 25 November - [/b]High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block,two low pressure systems around UK, giving very unsettled conditions here. High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia,with Highish Pressure over much of mainland Europe. Light winds generally, but staying mild due to residual airmass.

    [b]Mon 26 November - [/b]High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block, a low pressure system over South Eastern UK, so remaining unsettled over UK, this gives Northerly winds for UK, and southerly/South Westerly winds for Alps on South Eastern flank of Low Pressure. Further North East into Europe very cold with High Pressure pushing into Arctic from Russia.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145606]

    [b]Tue 27 November - [/b]The pattern moves east, with low pressure east of UK, the Azores High nudging in just west of UK, the links up with Highish pressure over Greenland to give a tenuous block. Low Pressure generally for much of Europe, with a east west split over Alps, cooler the further west you are with Northerly winds, but milder further east with southerly winds. High Pressure continues to build on European side of Arctic.

    [b]Wed 28 November - [s] [/s][/b]The low pressure previously to East of UK now moves South East, and is centred over Northern Italy, this gives colder weather for the Alps with North to North East winds, but still not massively cold. High Pressure over Greenland and European side of Arctic, Further west low pressure into the Atlantic, and the Azores High back in its normal place.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145605]

    [b]Outlook - [/b]A lot of uncertainty after this point. some models go for North Easterly winds to bring colder weather over The UK and North Western Europe, but his largely depends on the low pressure in the North Atlantic not interacting with the one over Europe.

    I have attached 2 charts one from the 00Hz run, with goes with the not interaction route, and the 06Hz which goes with the interaction route.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145625]

    [b]Alps Weather[/b]

    [b]Sat 24 November - [/b]Mostly Dry, with Freezing Levels in range 2400m-2700m

    [b]Sun 25 November - [/b]Patchy precipitation at times over western areas, with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

    [b]Mon 26 November - [/b]More General Precipitation for French Alps, and western parts of Switzerland Germany for the morning, becoming patchier in the afternoon but extending into most of Switzerland
    with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

    [b]Tue 27 November - [/b]A cold front moving into western areas overnight, with very heavy precipitation for Eastern France, the far west of Italy, and also fringing SW Germany and Western Switzerland. Snow Levels (1400m on west of front to 1800m (east). By noon, the front has moves east, with the heaviest of precipitation bordering France and Italy and as far east as Milan, and as far north as Wengen. Snow Levels 1600 (w)-2000m (e). Freezing levels generally 1200-1400 west of front, 1800-2200 on front, and 2600-2800 (eastern Austria)

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145628]

    The precipitation continuing right through day, by midnight, heavy precipitation over much of Italy, and Southern Switzerland with some precipitation also for French Alps, rest of Switzerland, S Germany, and W Austria, Snow Levels, 1000-1400m France, 800-1600m Switzerland (NW-SE), 1000-1400m Germany (W-E), 1200-2000m Italy (NW-SE)

    [b]Wed 28 November - [/b]The Precipitation continuing through much of Wednesday, with only NE Alps missing out, the heaviest precipitation over Italy and fringing southern Austria, and Switzerland, Snow Levels 800-1400m Western Alps to over 2000m Eastern Alps.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145629]

    [b]Outlook - [/b]Further precipitation seems likely from the low pressure in the area, and latest indications are for Freezing Levels to fall significantly to around 700m-900m North West Alps, and 1200-12600m elsewhere, but this will depend on the boundary on any low pressure system. A lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this point though.

    [b]Summary - [/b]After recent mild weeks there is the potential for heavy snowfalls for the Alps, initially more especially for western higher slopes, but probably becoming more widespread to at least medium slopes by mid next week,
  7. J10
    [b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]

    Last week I commented about the improvement over the Alps, this week has continued the vast improvement, and there has been a transformation of snow conditions from green field to deep snow over most Alpine mountains and down to resort level quite widely. This also means a very good base has been established which is now likely to remain to the end of this season.

    For most of November there was mild weather over the Alps, with the snow line rising back up the mountains, however there were indications in the models last week that it would turn colder this week with snow arriving back on the mountains.. As ever the following link gives the latest conditions [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]

    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    A generally cold or very cold week over the Alps, but generally quite a bit drier than over recent weeks.

    [b]Daily Summaries [/b]

    [attachment=147901:Alps 7 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Sat 8 December - [/b]There is High Pressure over Greenland (1045mb), with high pressure through the Svalbard region right through to Russia (1045mb), there is also a displaced Azores High over Southern parts of the UK (1030mb) giving NW winds. There is low pressure over the Atlantic (985mb), over Iceland (995mb) and another low pressure centred over Southern Italy, with cold or very cold weather over the Alps with further snow expected here. .

    [attachment=147900:Alps 8 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Sun 9 December - [/b]The High pressure over Greenland weakens slightly, but high pressure staying over Svalbard - Russia area. Generally everything else moves SE, the low pressure over Iceland moves to NE of the UK, the High Pressure the UK, moves away to the South, with a cool/cold NE feed over the UK in between these two systems, while High pressure ridges into the western Alps, and low pressure over Italy moves in the far SE of Europe, with the coldest and most unsettled weather over the Eastern Alps.

    [attachment=147899:Alps 9 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Mon 10[b] December [/b] - [/b]High Pressure over Greenland (1045mb) and the the NW of the UK, with slack NE cold winds over the UK, High Pressure also over Scandinavia/Russia, with low pressure over much of mainland Europe with a a low pressure centre of 1000mb over Germany, with cool to cold Northerly/ NE winds over much of the Alps. The High Pressure over the UK even at this stage is acting a bit of a block to the coldest air to the east edging in.

    [attachment=147898:Alps 10 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Tue 11[b][b] December [/b][/b] - [/b]The High Pressure over the UK forms a block to Greenland, with the low pressure over much of Europe, it does appear that the coldest air previously heading for the UK, not set to hit the Alps, with NE winds in this region. However still cold and frosty over the UK High Pressure again in the Scandinavia / Russia area. Very good inter model agreement to this point.

    [attachment=147897:Alps 11 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Wed 12[b][b] December [/b][/b] - [/b]The GFS synoptic chart for this day is rather messy, High pressure again over Scandinavia (1050mb) bridging across to Greenland, low pressure over mainland Europe, with NE flow over the Alps. with weak High Pressure (1035mb) over Southern parts of the UK and NW Europe, still rather cold here. Low Pressure in the Atlantic waiting in the wings.

    [attachment=147896:Alps 12 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Towards Weekend[/b] [b] -[/b] It does seem that the High pressure over the UK and NW Europe is set to breakdown, with Low pressure from the Atlantic pushing in, this could being milder weather for the UK and the Alps towards this period, but the last few days have shown that things can change very quickly on the models.

    [b]Alps Weather[/b]

    [b]Sat 8 December - [/b]Heavy precipitation overnight generally fading into Saturday, but tending to continue over some southern areas. Freezing Level 0-400m quite widely, up to 1000m over Western Italy. Sub zero to sea level overnight.
    [attachment=147921:Alps 8 Dec B.JPG]

    [b]Sun 9 December -[/b] Dry to start but some precipitation edging into North Western parts during the late morning and spreading into most of the Northern Alps by afternoon, and continuing through the evening. Freezing Levels 0-600m generally, 800-1000m SE Switzerland, W Austria and parts of Italy.
    [attachment=147920:Alps 9 Dec B.JPG]

    [b]Mon 10 December - [/b]Precipitation for central parts of the Alps to start this gradually dying out, but being replaced with further precipitation from the north, this heavy in places as it pushes south. By noon, it runs though the French Alps, much of Switzerland and Austria Freezing Levels 600m-800m generally for Alps, 1000-1400m for an area SE Switzerland, W Austria and parts of Italy. Precipitation continuing into the small hours, with freezing level down to 200-400m generally.

    [attachment=147919:Alps 10 Dec B.JPG]

    [b]Tue 11 December - [/b]Patchy to moderate precipitation continuing for northern parts of the alp, with freezing levels lower than previous days, 300-600m generally, closer to 1000m over Italy.

    [attachment=147918:Alps 11 Dec B.JPG]

    [b]Wed 12 December -[/b] After a sub zero night throughout the Alps, a drier day with only patchy preciupittaion , Freezing level , a few hundred meters above sea level at most.
    [attachment=147916:Alps 12 Dec B.JPG]

    [b]Outlook - [/b]Looking very cold and dry for Thursday, probably dry as well on Friday but perhaps turning milder later from west.

    [b]Summary - [/b]A north south split this week, additional snowfalls likely in the northern parts of the Alps, but not to the extent of recent weeks, less snow further south, and perhaps snow depths dropping at some Italian resorts at lower slopes, but nothing drastic.
  8. J10
    [b]Latest Conditions [/b]

    After a very slow start to the season, there has been plentiful snow over recent weeks, the past week has been drier, but with blue skies, so great skiing conditions for those out there.

    As ever visit, the Ski Club of GB website for latest details.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [u][url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url][/u]

    A very mixed week ahead, unsettled with periods of rain and snow, but after a brief period of turning every mild at the start of the week, it looks as if the Snow Level dropping lower towards next weekend, at least for a time.


    [b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

    As for much of the winter we seem to be stuck in a +NAO pattern, with low pressure over the Northern Latitudes with a temporary Surface High over Greenland but with a vigorous Polar Vortex above this. There is low pressure over Scandinavia feeding in cool or cold North Westerly winds over much of Europe (including the Alps). The Azores High has ridges a long way North East edging into western Europe including the UK, starting to feed in mild to very mild over the UK after a cool start.
    [attachment=125989:Current 30th Dec.JPG]

    The general +NAO pattern will not change over the next 7 days, but within this, there will be warmer and cooler periods of weather as we will see below.

    Saturday will see the Azores High Pressure (1036mb) a bit further south, but still feeding mild SW winds of a Tropical Maritime airflow into the UK and the rest of Western Europe including the western half of the Alps. Low Pressure over Scandinavia with NW winds keeping it very cold here, and remaining cool over the rest of Eastern Europe for the time being.
    [attachment=125976:30 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees the whole pattern edge east, with the milder SW flow over most of Europe and into Southern Scandinavia, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia and cold also for SE Europe. the Winds over the Atlantic turning more of a NW direction and colder air flooding south, so tuning cooler over the UK later.

    [attachment=125978:30 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees Low Pressure again dominating the scene over the Atlantic, and now over Greenland , with winds more of a flatter westerly direction, but with the cold air pumped south into the Western Atlantic previously, this should feed moderated Polar Maritime air over the UK, so cool or cold here. Mild further east over most of mainland Europe with SW winds, but staying cold over the far north of Scandinavia and Russia.
    [attachment=125980:30 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday sees things unsettled on a zonal flow, NW winds pushing into the UK , so cool or cold again, and perhaps stormy over northern areas for a time. South westerly winds over Europe (including the alps), so generally mild, but slightly cooler further north and east, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia.
    [attachment=125982:30 Dec +96.JPG]

    Wednesday, sees more a flatter Westerly flow on top of the Azores High to the south, cool over much of Northern and Western Europe (including the Alps from yesterday's NW blast). Milder towards Southern and Eastern Europe, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia, and turning milder again from the west for the UK, as a Tropical Maritime airflow sets in for a time.
    [attachment=125984:30 Dec +120.JPG]

    Thursday and Friday a bit uncertain at this stage, the zonal pattern remains set with a mix of cool/cold Polar Maritime air and milder Tropical Maritime air, with perhaps a more general period of Tropical Maritime air around the weekend over the UK if the Azores High Pressure pushes further North East as currently suggested.
    [attachment=125986:30 Dec +144.JPG] [attachment=125988:30 Dec +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]

    [b]Sat 31 Dec - [/b]2200m to 2400 (West), 1400 to 2200m (Central), 600m to 900m ( W Austria), turning milder from west
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]2400m to 2700m (South West) 1800m to 2000m W Austria
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]1700m to 2100m generally, over 2500m E Austria, turning colder from west
    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1600m generally
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m North, 1000m to 1600m Central, 1800m to 2000m Western Italy
    [b]Thur 5 Jan - [/b]800m to 1200m North, 1200m to 1500m Central, 1800m to 2400m Western Italy
    [b]Fri 6 Jan -[/b] 600m to 1000m Generally, 1000 to 1400m Western Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    [b]Sat 31 Dec -[/b] 1600 to 1800m (Far West), 0 to 300m (East)
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]over 2000m generally, colder far Wast Austria
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]over 2000m generally, 900-1500m for South Austria and Northern Italy,
    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m South and West (Inc Switzerland), 600-1000m elswewhere
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1500m generally
    [b]Thur 5 Jan -[/b] Around 1000m , pockets lower
    [b]Fri 6 Jan[/b] - 200m to 600m generally, around 800-1000m Italy

    850 Hpa Temps (noon)

    [b]Sat 31 Dec - [/b]+3 in West, 5c in East
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]+3 to +6c generally
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]+2 to +5c generally, pockets around 0c, S Austria
    [b]Tue 3 Jan -[/b] -1 to +1c generally
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]-4c (North) to +3c (South)
    [b]Thur 5 Jan - [/b]-3c (North) to 0c (South)[b],[/b] but up to +7c (W Italy)
    [b]Fri 6 Jan[/b] - -7c (North) to -3c (South)[b],[/b] but up to +1c (W Italy)

    [b]Sat 31 Dec -[/b] Patchy snow to start over Austria dying out by morning. A warm front pushing in form the west with some heavy precipitation to start over the Portes du Soleil, Western Switzerland, with more general precipitation over Western areas. (SL 2000m (W) 1000m (E). The Precipitation continuing during the day for the above areas, but also for western Austria, Southern Germany and N Italy, SL rising to 2200 (W), 1600, E Switzerland, 800m into Austria. [attachment=125975:30 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    The Precipitation pushing East later, for Switzerland and Austria, heaviest along the border, SL 2200m generally, 1200m far east.

    [b]Sun 1 Jan[/b] - The rain (SL 2000m) tending to push further into Austria later and drying out by afternoon and turning drier elsewhere, much milder than recently at the end of the day. [attachment=125977:30 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 2 Jan[/b] - Dry to start but a cold front pushes into western areas later, precipitation over France and Switzerland, heaviest along the France Switzerland border, (SL 1200m (W), 1500 (E). This pushing east by evening with the heaviest precipitation over the Austria Switzerland border, but lighter outbreaks for the rest of Switzerland, Austria and fringing areas of Germany and Italy, SL around 1200m. [attachment=125979:30 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]The precipitation pushing SE over NE Italy overnight with the snow level around 1200m and heavy snow possible over the highest hills. Turning drier and colder elsewhere. [attachment=125981:30 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 4 Jan [/b]- Another band of precipitation edging down from the north, with some precipitation likely for Germany initially and then Austria and Switzerland, SL 1000-1200m, tending to die out by evening. [attachment=125983:30 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thur 5 Jan and Fri 6 Jan -[/b] A long way out given current trends but Thursday could be very snowy as another front pushes down from the North, and heavy precipitation, with snow to around 1000m, lasing for much of the day, for Northern areas to start, transferring into more central areas later, but confidence is low this far out. Friday at this stage, sees the precipitation dying out slowly and a cold day generally. [attachment=125985:30 Dec +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=125987:30 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary [/b]A very mixed week with a mix of Polar Maritime and Tropical Maritime airflow, higher slopes could easily see further heavy snowfalls, and I wouldn't be surprised if some higher slopes saw over 50cm of fresh snow over the next 7 days.
  9. J10
    [b]Overview[/b]

    The Alps over recent weeks have seen great conditions for those wanting warm sunshine, but not those wanting to see long lasting snow conditions. However recent days has seen colder weather push in from the East,

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]

    The forthcoming week has a great deal of weather uncertainty for the UK after the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW), however for Europe and the Alps very cold weather is pretty much guaranteed although precipitation details may very well be more uncertain.

    [b]Synoptic Charts [/b]

    The charts shown are based on the GFS run of 12Hz on Friday 11th Jan.

    [attachment=152749:11 Jan 00.JPG]

    [b]Sat 12 Jan [/b]
    So if we start the Synoptic Analysis on Saturday. There is deep low Pressure to the North of Scandinavia, feeding some very cold air into northern parts here. A surface High over Greenland with Low Pressure over the western Atlantic, there is a high pressure over Scandinavia and this is feeding in some very cold air for much of Northern and Eastern mainland Europe. There is low pressure to the SE f the UK moving South Eastwards over the southern parts of the UK, introducing the easterly to give colder air to the UK, and a wintry mix of weather to southern areas.

    [attachment=152750:12 Jan.JPG]


    [b]Sun 13 Jan [/b]

    By Sunday the low pressure had moved into Europe and a colder Easterly flow has set up over the UK. A easterly feed over much of Northern Europe giving cool or cold conditions over the Alps. A low pressure system is establishing itself to the NW of the UK.

    [attachment=152751:13 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Mon 14 Jan [/b]
    Monday seeing the low pressure mentioned above move South Easterly across the over the UK, with the chance of widespread snow over the UK, at his stage more especially for eastern area, although this is currently uncertain. Over Europe a NE feed is set up over the Alps, turning very cold here. Further to the west of the UK the Azores high is ridging further north giving a tenuous block to Greenland..

    [attachment=152752:14 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Tue 15 Jan [/b]

    On Tuesdays chart you can see High Pressure to the Azores and over Scandinavia with low pressure over the UK running though much of Europe. To the west there is milder weather attempting to push in from the Atlantic.

    [attachment=152753:15 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Wed 16 Jan to Fri 18 Jan [/b]
    After this point there is huge model uncertainty and things are likely to change a number of times, at this stage GFS keeps it cold with a NE flow over the UK before collapsing the High to the south and allowing SW winds to start push in from the west. In contrast the ECM keeping the High Pressure closer to the UK, so still cold but drier.
    Despite the synoptic uncertainty, looking very cold over the Alps and much of mainland Europe.

    [attachment=152754:16 Jan.JPG]

    [attachment=152755:17 Jan.JPG]

    [attachment=152756:18 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail [/b]


    [b]Sat 12 Jan[/b]
    [attachment=152823:Alps 12 Jan.JPG]
    A Largely dry but very cold start over the Alps for the weekend. However some light precipitation is possible for SE Germany and NW Austria at times during the afternoon. Freezing Levels French Alps 1000-1400m, Switzerland 600m (N) to 1400m (SW), Austria 200m (NE) to 1000m (SW), Italy 1000-1200m generally, Germany 400m-800m

    [b]Sun 13 Jan[/b]
    [attachment=152824:Alps 13 Jan.JPG]
    Again a very cold and mostly dry start, this time precipitation edging up from the south later into the afternoon for the Italian laps and into SE Austria. Freezing Levels very similar to Saturday.

    [b]Mon 14 Jan[/b]
    [attachment=152825:Alps 14 Jan.JPG]
    Another very cold start but this time but moderate snow (to all Alpine levels) pushing up from the south into Northern Italy and Central and Southern parts of Austria during the morning. By noon, the intensity of the [b]precipitation [/b]should have diminished but it should become more widespread for Austria and Northern Italy, fringing East Switzerland and SE Germany. Outbreaks of snow continuing until evening more concentrated into areas mentioned above. Freezing Levels French Alps 1000-1400m, Switzerland 600m (N) to 1400m (SW), Austria 200m (NE) to 1000m (SW), Italy 1000-1200m generally, Germany 400m-800m Some even during the afternoon, the precipitation over the Alps will fall as snow apart at very lowest resorts in Italy.

    [b]Tue 15 Jan[/b]
    [attachment=152826:Alps 15 Jan.JPG]
    Tuesday seems snow continuing overnight in Central Northern Italy and Western Austria this fading away later, however more snow edges into Western areas by late morning and across southern part into the afternoon.

    Freezing Levels French Alps 400-600m, Switzerland 200m (N) to 800m (SE), Austria 200m (NE) to 1000m (SW), Italy 200-800m generally, Germany 200m-600m

    [b]Wed 16 Jan to Fri 18 Jan[/b]
    [attachment=152828:Alps 16 Jan.JPG]
    Wednesday look like bring a showery day over the Alps, with the heaviest of showers in Eastern areas.
    Freezing Levels French Alps 100-800m, Switzerland 100m (N) to 900m (SW), Austria 100m (NE) to 600m (SW), Italy 200-800m generally, Germany 100-300m
    The outlook towards the weekend is remaining very much on the cold side cold by day, bitterly cold by night. With a lot of uncertainty about precipitation amounts.
    However the cold weather will allow for the snow cannons to be operated widely and this should help snow cover even where there is a lack of precipitation.
  10. J10
    [b]Latest Conditions [/b]

    At the start of the season there were fears about a lack of snow for the Alps, but conditions have been transformed with some areas seeing the best skiing in recent years along with the heaviest sustained snowfall also.

    As ever visit, the Ski Club of GB website for latest details.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8431"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8431[/url]

    Some fantastic skiing conditions can be expected over the next week, with glorious blue skies and mild temperatures, although it may turn a little slushy at times during the afternoon midweek.

    [b]Synoptic and Progression[/b]

    The synoptic pattern which gave the snow is in the process of being replaced by a milder "Bartlett High" style pattern, this new pattern is set to say around for most of the coming week, but there will be day to day differences.

    So if we start off by looking at today's pattern, There is low pressure covering the North Atlantic all the way from USA and Canada right through to Scandinavia, with in particular a deep area of LP centered to the west of Norway (976mb). High Pressure generally further south and for Eastern Europe, with the Azores High (1036mb), on the North Eastern flank of the ridging High, there are North Westerly winds for the UK with a brief shot of cooler air, as a cold front pushes South East.

    Tuning cool over the UK, mild over much of mainland Western Europe including the Alps and most of Scandinavia, remaining cold over Eastern Europe.

    [attachment=125666:Current 23rd Dec.PNG]

    Saturday sees the Azores High (1036mb) extending North East over the UK and into NW Europe and more into a Bartlett High, so conditions turning more settled and milder here, with a Tropical Maritime flow from the South Atlantic, after a cool start. Away from Remaining cool over the Alps, milder for Central Europe and Southern Scandinavia. However colder and unsettled over Northern Scandinavia, remaining quite cold with high Pressure for Russia and the far East of Europe. .

    [attachment=125653:23 Dec +24.PNG]

    The High Pressure pushes further North East, with SW winds extending as far North East as Lithuania, so turning increasingly mild over NW Europe, cool over Northern Europe and much of Scandinavia (including the Alps). Cooler over SE Europe, with NE winds on the SE flank of the High Pressure.
    [attachment=125655:23 Dec +48.PNG]

    Monday sees the High Pressure (1040mb) continues to push further East to be centered over SE Europe, the mild advance continues, for the UK, mild for most of Northern and Western Mainland Europe (including the UK and the Alps), remaining cool in the far SE, further north, it should start to turn cold with westerly winds edging into Scandinavia and the far north of Scotland.
    [attachment=125657:23 Dec +72.PNG]

    High Pressure (1040mb) centered over Europe and mild or very mild and settled for most of Europe. Milder further north for the far north of Scotland and turning much colder over most of Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125659:23 Dec +96.PNG]

    Not much change on Wednesday, but low pressure over the UK, and turning colder for central and northern UK with a brief NW blast. remaining mild or very mild and settled over most of Europe, cold and Unsettled for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125661:23 Dec +120.PNG]

    High Pressure building over the UK (1040mb) on Thursday and on the eastern flank of the High, turning very cold with Northerly or North Westerly winds into much of Central and Eastern Europe including the Alps, remaining very cold over Scandinavia, remaining mild in the far south of Europe. Friday suggests the whole pattern pushing further east.

    [attachment=125663:23 Dec +144.PNG] [attachment=125665:23 Dec +168.PNG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]850HPA (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] -5 to +1c mildest in south East, Coldest North West
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]-6 to 0c coldest over Austria, mildest further West
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 0 to +5c coldest over Austria, mildest further West
    [b]Tue 27 - [/b]+4 to +6c generally
    [b]Wed 28-[/b] +3 to +6c generally
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] -6 to +3c, coldest Germany, Mildest Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]-7 to -1c coldest Austria, Mildest South East

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] 800m to 1000m north West, 1600-1800m Southern Austria and Italy
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]800m to 1000m Generally, 1200-1600m Switzerland Italy border
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 1500m to 1800m Austria, 1800-2400m E Switzerland to W Austria, over 3000m Far west
    [b]Tue 27 - [/b]2700 to 3000m Generally
    [b]Wed 28-[/b] 3000m Generally
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] 600 to 800m North, 1800-2200m Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]400 to 800m North, 1200-1800 S Switzerland into Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am) - [/b]

    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] 300m to 600m Austria, 1000 to 1200m Germany to Switzerland, big variation in Italy
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]0m to 500m generally
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 0m to 500m generally NW, milder in parts of Italy
    [b]Tue 27 and [/b][b]Wed 28-[/b] Huge variations, 0m in places, over 2000m elsewhere
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] 0m to 500m generally NW, milder in parts of Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]0m to 400m Generally

    [b]Sat 24 Dec - [/b]Snow (down to around 1000M) pushing into the far NW of the Alps by morning, spreading east by afternoon, to cover the French Alps, Southern Germany, Northern Italy, Switzerland and western Austria, with the heaviest precipitation on the Austria/Switzerland border, Snow Levels around 800m (North) to 1200m (South). Snow continuing during the evening before becoming confined to Austria and drying out overnight.

    [attachment=125652:23 Dec +24 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Sun 25 Dec - [/b]After a bitterly cold night, Mostly Sunny and Dry, turning milder from the west, but great skiing conditions

    [attachment=125654:23 Dec +48 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Mon 26 Dec - [/b]Apart from some light precipitation in Eastern Austria (snow above 1000m), another dry and sunny day, Freeze thaw conditions, very cold to start, much milder from the west during the day. Best skiing during the morning,

    [attachment=125656:23 Dec +72 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Tue 27 Dec and Wed 28 Dec -[/b] Dry and Sunny, cold Overnight, Very mild Daytime Best skiing during the morning,

    [attachment=125658:23 Dec +96 Alps.PNG] [attachment=125660:23 Dec +120 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Thu 29 Dec - [/b]Colder from north, some light snow into Southern Germany and then Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria, before dying out afternoon.
    [attachment=125662:23 Dec +144 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Fri 30 Dec -[/b] Mostly dry and bright, some snow into Austria during afternoon
    [attachment=125664:23 Dec +168 Alps.PNG]
  11. J10
    [b]Current Situation[/b]

    The past week has transformed the snow conditions over the Alps.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/skiresorts/lastsnowed.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...lastsnowed.aspx[/url] gives details of the heaviest new snow in the Alps.

    [b]Synoptic Charts[/b]

    [attachment=125331:17 Dec.JPG]

    Currently there is a surface High Pressure over Greenland, and a Azores High (1032mb), in between this there is a ridge of Hugh Pressure over the Atlantic to the west of the UK. This is feeding in very cold northerly winds over much of the western half of Europe including he UK and the Alps and Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125332:17 Dec +24.JPG]

    Slowly the ridge moves to the South East, as does the whole pattern, feeding in more of a NW flow over the UK, still cold, but the cold winds remaining over Western Europe.

    [attachment=125333:17 Dec +48.JPG]

    By Monday, the Greenland High has collapsed, and there is a more mobile pattern, winds more from the South West over most of Europe, but the cold air from the last cold of days still in place over Europe. (including the Alps). Turning milder over the UK, with SW winds to start, veering North Westerly later,

    [attachment=125334:17 Dec +72.JPG]

    The Azores start to become more a dominant feature thereafter, moving steadily eastward, to be centred around Northern Spain and feeding in milder Westerly or South Westerly winds over the UK, this milder air extending into the Alps for Wednesday into Thursday. Remaining colder over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, but milder air encroaching here later.

    [attachment=125335:17 Dec +96.JPG]
    [attachment=125336:17 Dec +120.JPG]

    By Friday, the Azores High may retreat again allowing cooler Polar Maritime winds over the UK from the North West, perhaps this cooler air than pushing into the Alps for the Christmas weekend, but this is still a long way off.

    [attachment=125337:17 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Snow Detail[/b]

    [b]850HPA (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 17 -[/b] -3 to -5c generally
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]-4 to -7c generally
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] -3 to -7c generally, coldest towards North East
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]-1 to -6c generally, coldest towards South East Austria
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] -1 to +2 Western Alps, -4 to -5c E Austria
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] +1 to +2 Western Alps, +2 to +4 Central Alps, 0 to -4c Austria
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]+2 to +4c generally, milder further south into Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 17 -[/b] 700m to 1000m generally, 1000m-1300m Italy
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]700m to 900m generally, colder in pockets
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] 300m to 600m Northern half of Switzerland and Austria, 700-900m elsewhere
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]600m to 1000m generally, colder Eastern Austria, 1200-1400m E Switzerland and W Austria border
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] 800m to 1000m Austria and Germany, 1000m-1600m further west, rising rapidly from west later to over 2000m
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] E Austria below 900m, generally 1800-2200m, pockets over 3000m Italian border and French Alps
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]1600m-1800m Northern alps,rising steadily further south to 2600m -2800m

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am) - [/b]
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]0m to 300m generally
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] 0m to 200m generally
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]600m to 800m French Alps and W Switzerland, 0 to 300m elsewhere
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] 600m to 1000m generally
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] E Austria below 600m, generally 1400-1600m, pockets over 3000m parts of Italy
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]Mild generally but with huge variation

    [b]Sat 17[/b] - Moderate snowfall seems likely for the French Alps, much of Switzerland and Western Austria. this becoming confined to Western areas later.

    [attachment=125338:17 Dec.PNG]

    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]After a bitterly cold start, a west east split, outbreaks of snow fro the French Alps, Western Switzerland and running into Southern Germany.

    [attachment=125339:17 Dec +24.PNG]

    [b]Mon 19 - [/b]Another bitterly cold start, further patchy snow is expected in western and central parts of the Alps, remaining drier to the South and East

    [attachment=125340:17 Dec +48.PNG]

    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]Dry to start in the East, but a front should push into the west early with heavy snow down to around 1000m, this extending through the day for the French Alps, Switzerland and Western Austria and Germany. At times the freezing level will rise, but most precipitation will fall above snow at resort level or higher .

    [attachment=125341:17 Dec +72.PNG]

    [b]Wed 21 - [/b]Further heavy precipitation overnight and especially into Wednesday. It is expected to effect The French Alps, Switzerland, and Western Austria, and neighbouring areas of Germany and Italy. The heaviest precipitation in Switzerland throughout, Snow level to start around 1000m, rising steadily to 2000m in Western Switzerland and France, but remaining at 1000m in Austria.

    [attachment=125342:17 Dec +96.PNG]

    [b]Thu 22[/b] - The precipitation is set to move into Austria for Thursday and turn drier elsewhere.
    [attachment=125343:17 Dec +120.PNG]
    [attachment=125344:17 Dec +144.PNG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Very cold to start with further snow likely, especially in western areas, turning milder for a time towards the end of the next week, but big doubts remain as to the Christmas weather.
  12. J10
    This is the 8th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.

    The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5,4.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    Over the past few days things have looked a bit more promising with pressure around the festival period circa 1020mb, and not much in the way of washout runs, although a completely dry festival equally unlikely, what does today have in store.

    [attachment=216388:Glastonbury Rollercoaster Trendline to 14 June.JPG]

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

    [attachment=216384:GFS 15 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216385:GFS 15 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216386:GFS 15 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216387:GFS 15 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]
    High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, this weakens by the 25th, but still with weak High Pressure, although with Low Pressure seemingly waiting in the wings to the west. Byn the 27th the High Pressure has moved away to Scandinavia, with low pressure over the UK and quite a wet day in prospect. A further wet day in prospect on the Sunday with Low Pressure again in charge. This run is not a complete outlier with the ensembles but one of the more unsettled cluster options.

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

    [attachment=216389:GFS 15 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG][attachment=216390:GFS 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216391:GFS 15 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216392:GFS 15 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, however this moves away to the north by the 25th with Low Pressure edging in from the South East, with some moderate rain for Glastonbury for both the Wedesday and Thursday, but turning drier again as the LP moves away by the Friday. High Pressure nudging in from the South West over weekend, so mostly dry.. As expected this is an outlier, so can be taken wityh a pinch of salt.
    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [b]06Hz[/b]

    [attachment=216380:Ensemble Temps 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216381:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216382:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 06Hz.png]

    Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is one of the most unsettled options but not an absolute outlier. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout.

    [b]12Hz[/b]
    [attachment=216401:Ensemble Temps 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216399:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216400:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there or slightly below on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is an absolute outlier for the start of the festival. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout, but there are more ensembles going for moderate rainfall for the 27-29th period, so this is something to watch out for.
    [b]Temps [/b]
    As promised yesterday I said I would look at Temps for the festival, so by looking at 850Hpa temps. I have attached the animation as ever click to animate, there is still a very large degree of uncertainty with the mean figures always between +5 to +10c (@ 850HPa), which is around the Average for late June.

    [attachment=216395:Temps GIF to 15 June 00Hz.gif]

    [b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

    [attachment=216378:500 HPA 14 June -10 day.gif] [attachment=216379:500 HPA 14 June.gif]
    These both show an upper ridge over the UK, this is more pronounced on the 6-10 day forecast.

    [b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

    The operational run and the Ensemble run both reduce the High Pressure dominance over the UK with the Ensembles having pressure to be in the range 1016-1020mb over the UK.

    [attachment=216402:ECM 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216394:ECM Ens 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    The operational run keeps high pressure over western areas of the UK.
    [attachment=216403:ECM 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Positives
    The Upper Charts remain positive of an upper ridge over the UK
    The GFS Ensembles (00Hz/12Hz) keeps pressure around the 1020mb
    ECM operational run keeps High Pressure over western parts of the UK.

    Negatives
    Both GFS runs are rather unsettled and wet at times, although neither are an absolute washout.
    ECM operational and ensemble runs not as bullish at keeping High Pressure.
    GFS ensembles indicating a bit more rainfall over the weekend of the festival
    Things are a bit more mixed today, and as such I am giving a rating of 5/10, as things as very neutral at the moment, again with no real sign of a dry or washout festival.(However it is slightly more negative than positive)

    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    I'll update the Animations for Ensemble Pressure and Rainfall tomorrow and the NOAA animation on Tuesday,

    [b]Links [/b]

    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3[/url]
  13. J10
    [b]Forecast Number 3 - Issued 17th May[/b]

    This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

    [b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171377] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171378]
    June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

    [b]Temps[/b]

    Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171380] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171379]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171381] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171382]

    Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

    [b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]

    These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.

    Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,
    [font=arial]General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomaly[/font]to west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

    [font=arial]General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.[/font]

    [font=arial]Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]

    [b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]
    [b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
    Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival
    11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW
    12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds
    13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK
    14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds
    15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend
    16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light

    [b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]

    Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall
    11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival
    12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat
    13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival
    14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells
    15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy
    16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days

    Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]
    At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.
  14. J10
    It goes without saying how tragic the coach crash in Switzerland was this past week, and my thoughts are with those families effected.



    [b]Summary[/b]

    The weather across the Alps has been mild over recent weeks with glorious skiing conditions however there has been a rapid thaw in some places, with over 30cm of snow loss over the past week

    However there are signs that there will be some snowfall this week, initially in western areas on Sunday, this transferring to central parts later on Monday, this is set to give a topup on some slopes by mid next week.

    It is then set to turn a bit milder by the end of the week, and with sunny conditions, suntan lotion is a must.

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    There is High Pressure covering much of Continental Europe on Saturday, with winds for the Alps coming from a mild SW direction.
    [attachment=132335:16 Mar.JPG]

    However by Sunday winds turn round to more of a North Westerly direction over the Alps introducing a cooler Polar Maritime airflow, and an associated cold front is set to give moderate to heavy snow over much of the Western and Central Alps. Monday sees winds back to a NE, but the front stays over the Alps and it remains cold enough for snow over medium slopes upwards.
    [attachment=132334:16 Mar +48 Gen.JPG]

    High Pressure centred over the UK is set to dry things out again for the Alps with decent sunshine and slowly warming things back up for the Alps, but not as mild as last week.
    [attachment=132333:16 Mar +120 Gen.JPG]

    By the end of the week the centre of the high moves Eastwards, still settled over the Alps, but turning a bit colder over Eastern Austria, as it taps in into much colder air further east no real signs though of this tracking that far west though.
    [attachment=132332:16 Mar +168 Gen.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail [/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]S[/b][b]at 17 Mar - [/b]2000m-2400m generally, 2600m-3000m Central and Eastern Austria
    [b]Sun 18 Mar - [/b]1200m-1500m far North West, 1800m-2200m generally, 2200m-2500m Central and Eastern Austria
    [b]Mon 19 Mar[/b][b]- [/b]1000-1400m French Alps, W Germany, much of Switzerland, 1800-2200m SE Switzerland, E Italy, much of Austria
    [b]Tue 20 Mar -[/b] 1000-1400m W French Alps, far W Germany, NW of Switzerland, 1600-2200m elsewhere
    [b]Wed 21 Mar - [/b]2100m-2500m generally
    [b]Thu 22 Mar - [/b]2300m-2600m generally, 2000m-2200m E Austria
    [b]Fri 23 Mar - [/b]2000m-2400m South, 2600m N Switzerland and Germany, 1200m-1600m E Austria

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 17 Mar - [/b]+2 to +5c South, +4 to +7c North.
    [b]Sun 18 Mar - [/b]-1 to 0c far North West, +1 to +4c generally, +5 to +7c Austria
    [b]Mon 19 Mar - [/b]-2c to -4c French Alps, W Germany, much of Switzerland, -2c to +2c SE Switzerland, +2 to +5c E Italy, much of Austria
    [b]Tue [/b][b]20 Mar [/b][b]-[/b] -1 to 0c Far North West, +1 to +5c elsewhere
    [b]Wed [/b][b]21 Mar [/b][b] - [/b]+4 to +8c generally, +3c Eastern Austria
    [b]Thu 22 Mar - [/b] +4c to +6c generally, +7c to +9c Austria/Switzerland border, +1c to +4c Eastern Austria
    [b]Fri 23 Mar -[/b] +4c to +7c generally west, +8c to +9c Austria/Switzerland border, -2c to -4c Eastern Austria

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    This week there are many days, where the Freezing Level remains very high in the general Alps area, but drops much lower over the mountain tops quite often to ground level.

    [b]Sat 17 Mar - [/b]Over 2000m generally, 1400-1800m over mountains
    [b]Sun 18 Mar [/b][b]- [/b]NW 1000-1400m, 1600m-1800m over mountains, 2000-200m elsewhere
    [b]Mon 19 Mar[/b] [b]- [/b]800-1000m French Alps, W Germany, much of Switzerland, 1200-2600m SE Switzerland, E Italy, much of Austria, 1800-2000m E Austria
    [b]Tue [/b][b]20 Mar[/b][b] -[/b] 300m-8000m West, 1200m-1600m elsewhere
    [b]Wed [/b][b]21 Mar[/b][b] - [/b]2000-2200m generally, 1400-1800m over mountains
    [b]Thu 22 Mar - [/b]2000-2200m generally, 1400-1800m over mountains, locally 500-1000m In Switzerland and France
    [b]Fri 23 Mar - [/b]2000m-2400m South (1000-1400m over mountains) , 2000-2600m N Switzerland and Germany, 1000m-1400m E Austria

    [b]Alps Daily Summaries[/b]

    [b]Sat 17 Mar[/b]- Mostly dry with some warm sunshine, however more cloud towards southern Switzerland with some precipitation,[SL 1700m] for the afternoon, dying out by mid evening. [attachment=132331:16 Mar +24.JPG]

    [b]Sun 18 Mar - [/b]Mostly dry and sunny for Austria. A cold front is set to push in during the early morning brining cloud and some rain to western areas. This will rapidly turn to snow over around 1000m as it moves east. By late afternoon, it should spread over Western parts of Italy Germany, Switzerland [SL 1400-1600m] and with the heaviest precipitation over the French Alps [SL 1000-1200m], with some moderate accumulations possible (10-15cm) , [attachment=132330:16 Mar +48.JPG]

    [b]Mon [/b][b]19 Mar[/b][b] - [/b]By midnight Sunday, the heaviest of the Precipitation should transfer to Switzerland,and Western Germany, but there should be precipitation for much of the Western half of the Alps, and some precipitation fringing Austria The precipitation is set to continue right throughout Monday, only slowly fading away into the evening. Snow amounts 5-10cm generally, but perhaps as much as 50cm in parts of South Switzerland, Snow Levels should be around 800-1000m for western parts, to around 1400m for Switzerland, this dropping during the precipitation, further east over Austria closer to 1800m.

    [attachment=132329:16 Mar +72.JPG]

    [b]Tue 20[/b][b] Mar[/b][b] -[/b] A few heavy showers possible during the day, but these slowly dying out with more in the way of sunshine and sunny spells during the afternoon . [attachment=132328:16 Mar +96.JPG]

    [b]Wed 21 Mar - [/b] Mostly dry with bright spells, however Low pressure is set to push up from the South west introducing moderate to heavy precipitation for parts of France and Western Italy for late Tuesday Night and into Early Wednesday, moderate snowfall above around 1600m [attachment=132327:16 Mar +120.JPG]

    [b]Thu 22 Mar[/b] - Mostly dry with bright spells, with a thaw starting again as temps rise, more especially on lower slopes to the west. [attachment=132326:16 Mar +144.JPG]

    [b]Fri 23 Mar[/b] - Mostly dry with bright spells, with a thaw in western areas, although a few showers cannot be ruled out. [attachment=132325:16 Mar +168.JPG]
  15. J10
    This is the final forecast for Glastonbury 2013, so thanks for reading and for your comments.

    Unfortunately the rain yesterday totalled 10mm and this has caused some mud on site, this was forecast but only very recently, so earlier forecasts in the week did not pick this up. According to site reports, the wet ground and dampness is starting to dry out and today’s brightness and warmth should help matters. There is a front currently to the North West which may give a little bit more rain this evening.

    [b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
    Winds are likely to be from a West North West direction with pressure around 1025mb, a bright start to the day is expected with some sunny intervals. A warm front is set to push through during the afternoon and although it should stay dry, more cloud is expected during the late afternoon and evening, this is a bit of a change from previous forecasts. Big difference in the models for max temps again, GFS says 21-22c, the Met Office say 18-19c

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=176120:UKM 28a 24.gif] [attachment=176114:ECM 28a 24.gif] [attachment=176118:GFS 28 06 1.png]

    [b]Sunday 30 June[/b]
    The High Pressure edge back south again over the weekend with pressure around 1020mb with winds from a general westerly direction. Daytime Sunday looks dry in between the fronts which pushes passed through during Saturday and the one passing through during the early hours of Monday morning. In general terms the forecast of yesterday remains true, rather cloudy and damp to start but more in the way of brightness/sunshine in the afternoon with Temps around 19-22c. However a bit more cloud into the late evening, with the chance of some patchy rain in early hours of Monday morning.

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=176115:UKM 28a 36.gif][attachment=176119:UKM 28a 48.gif] [attachment=176117:GFS 28 06 2.JPG] [attachment=176116:GFS 28 06 3.JPG] [attachment=176121:ECM 28a 48.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    In general terms not a bad weekend, not as good as was thought to be the case at the start of the week, largely due to the High Pressure never really getting in control as much as was suggested/hoped, this also was one of the major reasons yesterday’s low pushed South East rather than East. For the most part looking dry and warm with some sunshine at times over the weekend, which should help dry the site out, hopefully everyone has a great festival.
  16. J10
    A bit of a cheat today, I have copied this directly from my forecast on the main forum.

    [b]GFS Operational Run[/b]

    Both make more of the risk of Low Pressure from the east this week. especially the 12Hz run.The 06hz has total rainfall over the next 6 days of 6mm, while the 12Hz run has closer to 50mm, clearly that has big implications of the ground conditions.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174595] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174594]
    My guess is the the 50mm is overstating things somewhat as no other run has come close to this level of rainfall, however this doesn't mean we can completely dismiss this run. Both of today's run have low pressure pushing in form the North West for the weekend , this takes a few days to clear east, and rainfall builds up over a couple of days. The High Pressure builds up from the south west is slower than desired, and there remains the potential for further rain for much of the festival.

    [b]06Hz progression[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174596] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174597] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174598] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174599]
    [b]12Hz progression[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174603] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174602] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174601] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174600]
    In Summary Very disappointing runs today.

    [b]GFS Ensembles [/b]

    The Somerset ones are not working today.

    The 06Hz and the 12Hz ensembles both go with the Low Pressure from the North West for the weekend, this is followed by a slow increase in Pressure from the south west over the Festival week.

    The ensembles have been rock solid in increasing pressure from the South West, albeit a bit slower than was suggested a few days ago.

    [b]ECM Operational Run [/b]

    The 00Hz run also makes more of Low Pressure to the east this week, but not quite as much as the GFS run, Low Pressure pushes in from the North West this weekend, before a slow increase in Pressure from the South West during the Festival week, not the best run, but South Western areas largely missing out on the worst of the weather.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174606] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174605]
    The 12Hz run makes less of the Low Pressure to our east this week, it continues the theme of the Low Pressure pushing in from the North West for next weekend, there is general agreement on this theme.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174608] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174607] [attachment=174610:ECM 16b 240.gif]

    [b]Ratings :- [/b]

    Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but probably settling down over the weekend.
    Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10 An increased risk of rain this week, especially from GFS, all models go for some level of unsettled weather next weekend.
    Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    The amount of rain to be expected during this coming week is very much undecided and this could have. a big impact on ground conditions. What now seems more likely is that Low Pressure next weekend is set to give some rainfall next weekend. Big differences between the models thereafter GFS op run not keen in buildings heights, ECM far more positive.
  17. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    A very topsy turvy week in the Alps, as forecast there was heavy snow in parts of the Alps around the last weekend and the start of last week to quite low levels, however much milder conditions has meant that most of this snow has thawed, with conditions now very similar to that of last week.

    Mild conditions seem quite likely for next week, so a further thaw seems likely, so good weather for skiing, even if the snow is likely to turn slushy in the afternoon and again suntan lotion is a must.

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    Saturday sees High Pressure centred over the UK, and this covers the Alps so mostly settled conditions, although a few showers over the weekend.
    [attachment=132535:23 Mar +24.JPG]

    By Monday not much changes with high Pressure till very much in control but it has edged further east, still setted conditions over the Alps and mostly mild.
    [attachment=132534:23 Mar +72.JPG]

    By midweek the High pressure edges slightly further west again, but still mostly settled over the Alps.

    [attachment=132533:23 Mar +120.JPG]

    By the end of the week, High pressure edges slightly further west again, with the possibility of colder air for eastern parts of the Alps.
    [attachment=132532:23 Mar +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail [/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]S[/b][b]at 24 Mar - [/b]2200m-2400m generally
    [b]Sun 25 Mar - [/b]2100m-2400m generally
    [b]Mon [/b][b]26[/b][b] Mar[/b][b]- [/b]2200m-2400m generally, 1600m to 2000m Eastern Austria
    [b]Tue 27 Mar -[/b] 2600m West and Central, 1800-2400m E Austria
    [b]Wed 28 Mar - [/b]2600m-3000m generally
    [b]Thu 29 Mar - [/b]2600m-3000m generally, 2100m-2600m E Austria
    [b]Fri 30 Mar - [/b]2100m-2600m South West, 1800-2100m N Switzerland and Germany, 1200m-1800m E Austria

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 24 Mar - [/b]+5 to +7c generally
    [b]Sun 25 Mar - [/b]+5 to +7c generally, +4 to +6c Austria
    [b]Mon 26 Mar - [/b]+5 to +8c generally, -2c to +3c E Austria
    [b]Tue [/b][b]27 Mar [/b][b]-[/b] +5 to +9c generally, +1c to +4c E Austria
    [b]Wed [/b][b]28 Mar [/b][b] - [/b]+7 to +11c generally, +4c to +7c E Austria
    [b]Thu 29 Mar - [/b] +8 to +12c generally, +5c to +7c E Austria
    [b]Fri 30 Mar -[/b] +5 to +10c south, -4 to 0c North

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    This week there are many days, where the Freezing Level remains very high in the general Alps area, but drops much lower over the mountain tops quite often to ground level.

    [b]Sat 24 Mar - [/b]Around 2000-2200m generally, 1400-1800m over mountains
    [b]Sun 25 Mar [/b][b]- [/b]Around 2000-2200m generally, 1000-1600m over mountains in West
    [b]Mon 26 Mar[/b] [b]- [/b]Around 2000-2200m generally, 1000-1600m over mountains in West and more generally over Austria
    [b]Tue [/b][b]27 Mar[/b][b] -[/b] 1000m Austria, 1000-1600m over mountains elsewhere, 2000-2000m generally
    [b]Wed [/b][b]28 Mar[/b][b] - [/b]2400-2700m generally, 1400-2000m over mountains
    [b]Thu 29 Mar - [/b]2400-2700m generally and over Austria, 1400-2000m over mountains further west
    [b]Fri 30 Mar - [/b]2100m-2400m South West, 1500-1800m N Switzerland and Germany, 1200m-1500m E Austria

    [b]Alps Daily Summaries[/b]

    [b]Sat 24 Mar[/b]- Dry to start, showers developing afternoon more especially Eastern Switzerland, Western Austria. [SL 2000-2100m], these continuing during the evening and fading away overnight

    [b]Sun 25 Mar - [/b]Dry to start, showers developing afternoon more especially Eastern Switzerland, Western Austria. [SL 2000-2100m], these fading away quickly into the evening and overnight

    [b]Mon [/b][b]26 Mar[/b][b] - [/b]A mostly fine day with good sunny spells in most spots, with a further thaw of lying snow, a few light showers in the west for a time in the afternoon,

    [b]Tue 27[/b][b] Mar[/b][b] -[/b] A mostly fine day with good sunny spells in most spots, with a further thaw of lying snow.

    [b]Wed 28 Mar - [/b]A mostly fine day with good sunny spells in most spots, with a further thaw of lying snow.

    [b]Thu [/b][b]29 Mar - [/b]A mostly fine day with good sunny spells in most spots, with a further thaw of lying snow.

    [b]Fri 30 Mar[/b] - Mostly dry and bright in the west, but cloud and precipitation edging for the east during the morning and this covering most of Austria by afternoon, [SL 800-1200m]
  18. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Alps Overview[/b]

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url][/font][/size]

    Another good week for the Alps with further fresh snow and low temperatures keeping the snow in good conditions.



    [size=4][b]Synoptic Patterns [/b] [/size]

    [size=4]Extensive Northern Blocking pattern at the moment with a Greenland High at 1056mb, with 1040mb right the way through to Norway, feeding bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and into Eastern Europe. And westwards over parts of Northern Britain, this general pattern never really changes with the colder air covering all of the UK from around Monday to Friday. [/size]

    [size=4]Today also sees. a low pressure system centred to the South West of the UK, which has caused very heavy snowfall over Central parts of the UK and heavy rainfall for more southern areas (where it has been milder with SW winds). South Easterly winds are in place for the Alps, which never seems to tap into the coldest air this week, and with the coldest air the further north and East you go. However there is generally low pressure, which is the reason for the showers, which tend to develop more especially into the afternoon.[/size]

    [size=4][attachment=166315:23 Mar.JPG][/size]

    [size=4]By Monday, High pressure remains dominant over Northern latitudes with an easterly flow over northern mainland Europe and over the UK, feeding in unseasonably cold air. [/size]

    [size=4][attachment=166314:25 Mar.JPG][/size]

    [size=4]By midweek, the general pattern remains in place for, with easterly winds all the way from Western Russia all the way to Canada, classic reverse zonality. Bitterly cold air over the UK, cool over the alps, again the coldest air reserve for the far NE of the Alps, more especially SE Germany, and NE Austria. [/size]

    [size=4][attachment=166313:27 Mar.JPG][/size]

    [size=4]Towards the weekend signs that low pressure will attempt to push in over the UK form the SW (more especially from the GFS model), but this is not really supported by the other models. For the Alps, GFS forecasts low pressure pushing in from Franc and Spain and pushing east across the Alps bring precipitation Thursday/Friday. [/size]

    [size=4][attachment=166312:29 Mar.JPG]


    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Sat 23 March[/b]
    Some precipitation to start the day over the far west but this largely dying out during the afternoon. Conversely morning showers over Southern Switzerland, becoming more widespread for The French Alps, parts of Northern Italy, SW Austria and continuing for Southern Switzerland.

    Not for the first time a North East South West split in the temperature profile, much colder the further North East you go. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600m-1800m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2100m, Switzerland 1800-2100m, Italian Alps 1500m-2100m (E to W), Austria 400m-2100m (NE to SW), with in each case the coldest of the air reserved for the far east of the respective countries.

    [attachment=166322:23 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sun 24 March[/b]
    A North South Split over the Alps to start the day, dry for Germany, and for Central and Northern parts of both Austria and Switzerland further south though some precipitation fringing Southern areas of Austria and Switzerland into the French Alps with widespread precipitation for Northern Italy. Not much changing in the pattern through the day, with some large precipitation totals around the Milan area, with some moderate precipitation into S Switzerland especially around Zermatt.

    Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600m-1800m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2100m, Switzerland 1800-2100m, Italian Alps 1400m-1800m (E to W), Austria 400m-1800m (NE to SW), with the colder air now covering a greater area in SE Germany and E Austria.

    [attachment=166321:24 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 25 March[/b]
    More of a messy picture is forecast for Monday, colder air is digging in for Germany from the North bring some precipitation here, precipitation also continuing for southern parts of the Alps during the morning. During the afternoon this squeezing, so precipitation possible just about anywhere, but still concentrated more over southern areas.

    Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600-1000m (E to W), French Alps 1300-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1000-2000m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1200-2000m (E to W), Austria 400m-2000m (NE to SW).

    [attachment=166320:25 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 26 March[/b]
    More general precipitation over the Alps to start Tuesday, the Austria Switzerland border the areas with the heaviest bursts, this continuing through the day, but gradually turning drier over Switzerland.

    Colder than recently with Freezing Levels (3pm) Southern Germany 400-800m, French Alps 1200-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 800-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1000-1800m (E to W), Austria 400m-1400m (NE to SW).

    [attachment=166319:26 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 27 March[/b]
    The precipitation continuing overnight from Austria and falling widely as snow, drying up by morning, but afternoon showers tending to brew up once again, with southern areas the most likely to catch one.

    Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 800-1600m (N to S), French Alps 1800-2100m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1600-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1200-1400m, Austria 400m-1800m (NE to SW).

    [attachment=166318:27 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [b]28 March and 29 March [/b]

    At this stage, tuning unsettled from the South West, with some heavy precipitation edging in for Western areas on the Thursday and this moving into the east for the Friday, but a lot of uncertainty this far out.

    [attachment=166317:28 Mar Alps.JPG]

    [attachment=166316:29 Mar Alps.JPG][/size]
  19. J10
    [b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]

    The forecast last week suggested a rather variable week with fluctuating freezing levels and snow conditions.

    [b]This week for the Alps in Summary - [/b]The trend towards milder weather increasing for the start of the forecast period, and with 850HPA temps of over +10c at times, no surprise that it will be very mild or even warm for a time. However it is set to turn much colder on Christmas Day and at this stage fresh snowfalls are expected in many areas, especially over the medium/higher slopes. Thereafter quite cool weather with further precipitation, this largely falling as snow on higher slopes, perhaps rain at some resort levels.

    [b]Synoptic Analysis[/b]

    Starting with today's chart for a base point.
    [attachment=149717:Alps 21 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Sat 22 December -[/b]
    The seemingly omnipresent Russian High is still in place (1044mb), this gives very cold weather for Russia Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, not quite so cold as you move further west. there is low pressure over Svalbard (988mb), with a surface High Pressure over Greenland (1036mb). There is High pressure over the western half of the Atlantic. Over the main part of the Atlantic there is a deep area of Low Pressure (980mb). Finally the Azores High is over Iberia and much of Southern Europe. This means a very mild flow into much of Western Europe, Due to the very mild air, this gives further very heavy rainfall for the UK. The Alps not for the first time in-between the weather systems, mild for western areas, cold further east but turning milder across the Alps.

    [attachment=149716:Alps 22 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Sun 23 December -[/b]
    Since Saturday the whole pattern moves further east by around by several hundred miles. The Russian High Pressure a bit further east (1036mb) so still very cold over Russia and Scandinavia, deepening low pressure over Svalbard, with High Pressure building further over Greenland, the High Pressure block slight further east than yesterday. Still low pressure over the Atlantic, 980mb over Northern Scotland another centre 984mb over the Mid Atlantic. Not quite as unsettled over the UK, W/SW winds over the UK and Northern Mainland Europe. generally mild over the UK, very mild over much of Northern and Western Europe, including the Western Alps, while mild over Eastern Alps and generally much of Eastern Europe. The Azores High ridges into Iberia and gives some warm air here (+10 850Hpa)

    [attachment=149715:Alps 23 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Mon 24 December -[/b] The Russian High continuing to edge east, with the very cold air continuing to edge Northwards and Eastwards. Low Pressure over the UK (980mb), cool/mild here, with extremely cold Northerly winds to the North west of the UK with High Pressure over Greenland. To The South East of the UK, South West winds over much of Europe, with very mild or mild winds for most of mainland Europe including the Alps.

    [attachment=149714:Alps 24 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Tue 25 December -[/b] A continuation of the South eastward movement of the pattern. Surface High Pressure (1052mb) over Greenland, Deep low pressure over Svalbard through the UK and Scandinavia, pushes down some extremely cold air southwards. North West winds over the UK and North West Europe, cold over Northern UK, cool for much of the UK, mild over of Northern Europe. the very mild air in the far South East of the UK.
    [attachment=149713:Alps 25 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Wed 26 December -[/b] The Russian High for the first time in ages, largely out of picture. again very cold over Svalbard, but with more a zonal west to east flow further south, so the very cold air never reaching the UK. A generally flat pattern over much of Europe as well, with the Azores high in place. Very cold over Scandinavia, cold over Northern Europe, cool over much of Europe.

    [attachment=149712:Alps 26 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Towards Weekend -[/b] A bit of uncertainty at the moment, a Greenland High seems likely as does very cold unsettled air over the Svalbard areas, possibly again it looks as if the coldest air remains trapped over High latitudes.

    The Current guidance is for. Low pressure over the Atlantic, with the UK on the South Eastern edge, as for much of Europe so mild SW winds with a Bartlettesque High Generally the further east you go, the colder it is, especially into Scandinavia and NW Russia

    [attachment=149711:Alps 28 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]
    [Specific forecast for Russbach = A]

    [b]Sat 22 December -[/b] Rather day to start mostly but some moderate precipitation for the early hours for NE Austria, however more general precipitation pushing from the North West into the evening into French Alps, much of Switzerland and W Germany. Freezing Levels 1800m-2100m (west). 1500m-1800m (central), 900-1200m (Austria inc A], however turning milder during the evening, 2400-2700m (west), Snow level for evening precipitation 2200-2500m.

    [attachment=149725:Alps 22 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Sun 23 December -[/b] Precipitation moving Eastwards for Northern parts of the Alps during the morning, with 6 hours of precipitation for most areas, and bring over Austria by noon. Freezing Levels 3000m-3500m (west). 2500m-3000m (central and West Austria inc A), 2000-2500m (East Austria), Unfortunately the very mild air, means snow will be reserved for the highest slopes. The Precipitation will continue in Austria only slowly away for Eastern Austria later.) Also it could be warm in places with the foehn effect.

    [attachment=149724:Alps 23 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Mon 24 December -[/b] A largely dry day, with only some light showers under High Pressure, probably not amounting to that much. Freezing Levels 3000m-3400m (generally inc A). Locally a bit lower aorund 2500m. Also mild overnight as well.

    [attachment=149723:Alps 24 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Tue 25 December -[/b] A cold front edges in from the North West during the morning, reaching Switzerland. Western Austria, SW Germany, and the France Alps by noon, with the heaviest precipitation to the eastern end of this, Freezing levels, falling from the west, North and West 1200m-1500m, further SE, 1500-1800mm [inc A], to South East parts of the Alps 1800-2400m , slightly higher to the far East of Austria.The precipitation edging further east during the evening, into Austria and as it turns colder from the NW, snow levels down to around 1000m. Further showers into France and Western Switzerland

    So in summary a mild start to the day, but turning much colder, with fresh snow for much of the Alps by the end of Christmas day especially over medium/higher slopes.

    [attachment=149722:Alps 25 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Wed 26 December -[/b] A bit more unsettled with some showers or more general periods of precipitation during the day. Perhaps more in the way of frontal precipitation in western areas again later, Freezing levels, North and West 1100m-1400m [Inc A], 1400-1600mm for more central areas, 1600-1800m , for parts of Austria.

    [attachment=149721:Alps 26 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Towards Weekend -[/b] Looking generally unsettled with further periods of precipitation, more especially toward the western half of the Alps, Freezing levels 1400-1800m generally on Thursday, at this stage on Friday colder towards the North east, Freezing levels 800-1200m, closer to 1600-2000m in South West.

    [attachment=149720:Alps 28 Dec b.JPG]

    [b]Outlook - [/b]At this stage a South west wind setting up under a Bartlett high, soi Freezing levels rising once more.
  20. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Further fresh snowfall means that there are great conditions across the Alps at the moment, and the persistent cold weather over the past few months has meant some impressive snow depths on most slopes.

    There are signs of some milder weather over the next few week or so, which will be discussed in more detail below.[/font][/size]

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Currently quite mild over most of Western Continental Europe with Westerly winds, the Siberian High still keeping it cold for the far east of Europe and NE Scandinavia, turning briefly colder over the UK with North Westerly winds bringing a Polar Maritime airflow. [attachment=131557:18 Feb Current.JPG]

    Staying cold over the UK Sunday, and the NW winds pushing deeper into Europe, bringing colder conditions over most of Western and Central Europe.

    A South Westerly flow becoming established over the UK and Western Europe for the start of next week[/font][/size], [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]bringing much milder conditions to much of Western Europe[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=131555:18 Feb + 48.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]This slowly introducing milder conditions further east over Europe as the week progresses including the Alps for Thursday and Friday.
    [attachment=131556:18 Feb + 96.JPG] [attachment=131554:18 Feb +144.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Alps Detail[/b][/font]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sun 19 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]600-1000m Germany, NW Switzerland, 1000-1400m elsewhere
    [b]Mon 20 Feb[/b] [b][b]- [/b][/b]400-700m generally, 900m-1200m France/Italy border and S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b]Tue 21 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b] 400m-700m generally, 1000m-1600m France/Italy border, Central and S Switzerland, W Austria
    [b]Wed 22 Feb - [/b]800m-1000m NE Austria, 1000-1600m most Central areas, 1800-2000m SW Alps
    [b]Thu 23 Feb[/b][b][b] - [/b][/b]2000-2200m generally, 2200-2600m SW Alps
    [b]Fri 24 Feb[/b][b][b] - [/b][/b]2800-3000m generally[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sun 19 Feb - [/b]0m-800m East, 800m-1200m Elsewhere
    [b]Mon 20 Feb - [/b]0m-400m Generally
    [b]Tue 21 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b] 0m-400m Generally
    [b]Wed 22 Feb - [/b]0m-400m Generally, pockets far higher towards the south
    [b]Thu 23 Feb[/b][b][b] - [/b][/b]variable acorss the alps
    [b]Fri 24 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b] Generally over 2000m in the Alpine region, but down to mountain level in many areas

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sun 19 Feb - [/b]-5 to -6c Germany, NW Switzerland, -2 to 0c elsewhere
    [b]Mon 20 Feb[/b]-5 to -9c North and East generally, -3 to -5c elsewhere
    [b]Tue 21 Feb -[/b] -5 to -6c East, -1 to -3c generally
    [b]Wed 22 Feb - [/b]0 to +3c South, -1 to -2c East
    [b]Thu 23 Feb - [/b]0 to +3c South, -1 to -2c East
    [b]Thu 23 Feb- [/b]+3 to +5c generally
    [b]Fri 24 Feb[/b] - +4 to +8c generally [/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Alps Daily Summaries[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sun 19 Feb - [/b]Dry to start in the South East, but a cold front edges in from the North West bringing moderate snow above around 600m to the French Alps, Switzerland , Southern Germany and NW Austria by noon, this pushing SE by evening into Austria and Italy, turning drier further north and west.
    [attachment=131536:18 Feb + 24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 20 Feb - [/b]Mostly dry to the north but patchy snow remaining for parts of Austria and Italy during the day, turning drier later.
    [attachment=131537:18 Feb + 48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 21 Feb and Wed 22 Feb -[/b] Dry days, very cold overnight, a bit milder than recently during the day.
    [attachment=131538:18 Feb + 72 Alps.JPG] [attachment=131551:18 Feb + 96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thu 23 Feb[/b] - A dry start, but patchy rain (SL over 2000m) pushing in later for Germany and Northern Austria.
    [attachment=131549:18 Feb +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Fri 24 Feb[/b] - A dry start, but patchy rain (SL over 2400m) pushing in later for Germany .
    [attachment=131550:18 Feb +144 Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
  21. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Alps Conditions [/b][/font][/size]

    There was decent fresh snow over medium to higher slopes at the start of the past week, but much milder temps has brought rain to all but the very highest slopes, making snow conditions not fantastic, despite the abundance of snow still at some higher slopes.
    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full[/url]

    Looking very mild next week, so it really is a must to head for the very highest slopes.

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    Low Pressure over the Alps at the moment, with a coolish Westerly flow, with low pressure also over the Atlantic and high pressure over the Azores and over Northern Africa. Over the weekend, the low pressure over the Atlantic will edge east with a mild SW flow setting up for NW Europe in conjunction with high pressure building over Europe to the East.
    [attachment=168215:12 Apr Current.JPG] [attachment=168214:14 Apr.JPG]

    A mild SW flow is expected to persist until midweek with 850HPA reaching 10c at times over the Alps from a Spanish plume. Thereafter High Pressure is likely over the Alps but with mild air in situ more especially for SW parts of the Alps.

    [attachment=168213:15 Apr.JPG] [attachment=168212:19 Apr.JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Alps Detail[/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Sat 13 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Some overnight precipitation tending to clear quite quickly, so that by morning mostly dry over the Alps. A few patchy showers developing for the first part of the afternoon, but generally well scattered and not that heavy.
    A north South split in the temperatures, Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1700m-2100m (N to S), French Alps 2200-2400m (NW to SE), Switzerland 2000-2300m (NW to S), Italian Alps 2100m-2300m, Austria 1700m-2100m (NE to SW)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168208:13 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [b][size=4][font=arial]Sun 14 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]A dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the milder temps, some thaw is likely. It really is starting to warm up from the west with Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2000m-3500m, French Alps 3000-3500m, Switzerland 2500-3500m, Italian Alps 2000m-3500m, Austria 1600m-3000m (All East to West)[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168207:14 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
    [b][size=4][font=arial]Mon 15 Apr [/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Another dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the temps a rapid thaw is likely. The milder weather now covers the whole of the Alps. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 3000m-3200m, French Alps 3200-3400m, Switzerland 3200-3400m, Italian Alps 3200m-3600m, Austria 2400m-3200m (All East to West)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168206:15 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [b][size=4][font=arial]Tue 16 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry to start, a few showers developing in the morning, these tending to become far more extensive during the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany, French Alps, Switzerland, the Italian Alps, Western Austria 3000m-3100m, E Austria 2400m-3000m[/font][/size]

    [attachment=168205:16 Apr Alps.JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Wed 17 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry in the morning, however showers tending to develop into the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2600m-2700m, French Alps 2900-3100m, Switzerland 2700-3100m, Italian [/font][/size][size=4][font=arial]Alps 3100m-3300m, Austria 2700m-3100m (All North to South)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]More general precipitation into the evening for Austria.[/font][/size]

    [attachment=168204:17 Apr Alps.JPG]
    [size=4][font=arial][b]18 April and 19 April[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]PA this stage, looking mostly dry after any initial precipitation moves away, perhaps tuning less mild from the NE for a time, but staying generally on the mild/warm side. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168203:18 Apr Alps.JPG]
    [attachment=168202:19 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Very much looking as if Spring is on the way, a major thaw seems likely this week, with any lowers resorts still open taking a pounding. However it has been a great season and all things must eventually come to an end. [/font][/size]Next week will see the final skiing forecast blog of the season.
  22. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    It has been a very strange winter across the Alps, and most of Europe generally, mild to start with a notable lack of snowfall, however once in started in early to Mid December, it has been very snowy and very cold over the Alps with great skiing conditions. Over the past few days it has turned very mild which has led a thaw especially on lower slopes, given the excellent snow depths that is not too much of a concern in the short term, however it is also set to be mild for most of next week, with a very flat jet across the Atlantic, so is this a blip or is this milder pattern set to continue. Also it is worth noting that there is a definite West to East split this week across the Alps this week, always coldest or least mild towards the east, and mildest towards the west.

    [b]Synoptic Summary [/b]Given the flat pattern, I am not going to do a full analysis, but have posted charts for

    Today [attachment=131777:24 Feb Current.JPG]

    Sunday [attachment=131774:24 Feb +48.JPG]

    Tuesday [attachment=131774:24 Feb +48.JPG]

    Thursday [attachment=131775:24 Feb +96.JPG]

    And it is very clear to see the mild weather across most parts of Western Europe, and for the Alps with a brief colder slot for early next week, more especially for the Eastern Alps.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 25 Feb - [/b]1400m-1600m NE steadily rising to 2800-3000m SW
    [b]Sun 26 Feb - [/b]800m-1200m NE, 1200-1600m Central, 2000m+ far South West
    [b]Mon 27 Feb[/b] [b]- [/b]600-800m E Austria, 1200m-1400m Central, 1800m-2200m far South West
    [b]Tue 28 Feb -[/b] 1400-1800m E Austria, 1800m-2000m Central, 2000m-2400m West
    [b]Wed 29 Feb - [/b]2300-2600m E Austria, 2600m-3000m Central, 3000m-3400m West
    [b]Thu 1 Mar - [/b]2600-2900m generally
    [b]Fri 2 Mar - [/b]2500-2800m generally

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sat 25 Feb - [/b]Over 2000m, down to mountain level in places
    [b]Sun 26 Feb - [/b]600-800m East, 1200-1500m generally
    [b]Mon 27 Feb - [/b]0m-800m Generally
    [b]Tue 28 Feb -[/b] 0m-800m Generally
    [b]Wed 29 Feb - [/b]Over 2000m, down to mountain level in parts of the western Alps
    [b]Thu 1 Mar - [/b]Over 2000m, down to mountain level in places
    [b]Fri 2 Mar -[/b] Over 2000m, down to mountain level in places

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 25 Feb - [/b]-1 to +2 NE steadily rising to +6 to +9c SW
    [b]Sun 26 Feb - [/b]-3c to -5c NE, -1c to +2c Central, +1 to +4c South West
    [b]Mon 27 Feb[/b] [b]- [/b]-5c to -7c E Austria, -2c to +2c Central, +1 co to +3c far South West
    [b]Tue 28 Feb -[/b] -1c to +1c Austria, 2c to 4c West
    [b]Wed 29 Feb - [/b]+3 to +5c North East, +6 to +9c elsewhere
    [b]Thu 1 Mar - [/b]+5c to +9c generally
    [b]Fri 2 Mar - [/b]+3 to +5c North East, +5 to +8c elsewhere

    [b]Alps Daily Summaries[/b]
    [b]Sat 25 Feb[/b]-
    Mostly dry, mild and bright over the Alps, truing a bit colder from the North East later, with some patchy precipitation over N and NW Austria, Snow Levels generally around 1500-1800m.
    [attachment=131767:24 Feb +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sun 26 Feb - [/b]Dry to start generally, but precipitation building over Austria, with some heavy bursts for Central and Western areas, snow down 1200m at midday, closer to 800m by early evening, as it turns colder from the NE.
    [attachment=131771:24 Feb + 48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 27 Feb - [/b]Any overnight precipitation dying out quickly and a largely dry day, an east west split, mildest in the west, coldest in the east
    [attachment=131772:24 Feb + 72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 28 Feb -[/b] Mostly dry over the Alps, however always patchy precipitation in the far NE, this tuning heavier for a time mid afternoon, snow above around 2000m, as again it turns milder from the west during the day.

    [attachment=131768:24 Feb +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 1 Mar -[/b] Dry and increasingly mild over the Alps.
    [attachment=131773:24 Feb + 120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thu 2 Mar[/b] and [b]Fri 3 Mar[/b] - Mostly mild and dry, but the odd bit of precipitation cannot be ruled out.
    [attachment=131769:24 Feb +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=131770:24 Feb +168 Alps.JPG]
  23. J10
    [b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]

    For most of November there was mild weather over the Alps, with the snow line rising back up the mountains, however there were indications in the models last week that it would turn colder this week with snow arriving back on the mountains.. As ever the following link gives the latest conditions [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]

    In summary there was quite a lot of snow across the higher resorts in the Alps, with lower resorts also receiving snow towards the end of last week. This does mean good conditions for a lot of the resorts which tend to open early for the winter, by their very nature these are ones which tend to be good for snowfall. Also going forward this means a good base has been set for the season in many resorts as well, more especially as ever over higher slopes.

    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    The key issue effecting the weather over the Alps next week, is the the wind direction is generally set to be from a northerly orientation whether it be North East, North West or directly north, as such 850HPA temps are set to be generally below freezing and most of any precipitation down to most resort levels will be of snow. More details on this[b].[/b]

    [b]Daily Summaries [/b]

    [b]Sun 2 December - [/b]This week starts with a prominent Azores High (1032mb), high pressure over Eastern Greenland, Svalbard into Eastern Russia (1032mb), Low Pressure over much of mainland Europe including the Alps, generally cold or very cold here, and finally Low Pressure into Atlantic, which is set to move over UK, there is a mild sector attached, with a notable feature of a NW-SE flow of winds, so turning back colder again cold front behind pushes though. Wind direction for Alps E-NE, 850HPa below 0c throughout, sub -5c for the majority.

    [attachment=146764:Synoptic 2 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Mon 3 December - [/b]The Azores High (1032mb), forms a ridge with High Pressure to East a Canada, with a NW-SE flow of winds over Atlantic, still high pressure over Eastern Greenland, Svalbard into Eastern Russia but this weakening, low Pressure over Atlantic, into UK and over much of Europe, generally cold, but milder for a times UK/Alps, turning back colder later as NW winds set in.

    [attachment=146763:Synoptic 3 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Tue [/b][b][b]4 December [/b] - [/b]The pattern turns a bit messier by Tuesday, with Pressure over Svalbard falling, with low pressure generally over much of Europe low, very cold over Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, cold over UK and the Alps (sub zero 850Hpa), with winds from a NW direction with the original air source from the North East. Weak areas of High Pressure (a surface High) over Greenland and a weakening Azores High.

    [attachment=146762:Synoptic 4 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Wed [/b][b][b][b]5 December [/b][/b] - [s] [/s][/b]Not that different synoptically to Tuesday, but everything movers a bit further SE, so turning a little colder over parts of UK and Alps (sub -5c 850Hpa in places)

    [attachment=146761:Synoptic 5 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Towards Weekend[/b] [b] -[/b]

    Quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment, with low pressure over much of Europe, and the weather set to be cold or very cold, an added complication is set High pressure is trying to nudge in from the Azores for the UK.

    [attachment=146765:Synoptic 7 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Alps Weather[/b]

    [b]Sun 2 December - [/b]Periods of precipitation over much of the Alps today, Freezing Levels 400-600m (North), 1000-1200m (South), so most of the precipitation will be of snow.
    [attachment=146776:Alps 2 Dec.JPG]

    [b][b]Mon 3 December - [/b][/b]Apart from some patchy precipitation over Austria in the morning, mostly dry until a warm front pushed into western areas, Freezing Levels 300-900m generally, 1200-1500m South West. During the afternoon and evening heavier precipitation over France, Switzerland, and western parts of Italy, Germany and Austria, in the warm sector, freezing levels up to 1200-2000m. [attachment=146775:Alps 3 Dec.JPG]

    [b][b]Tue [/b][b][b]4 December [/b][/b]- [/b]Precipitation continuing generally overnight with the heaviest of the precipitation over France, Switzerland, and western parts of Italy, Germany and Austria, the Freezing level dropping on Tuesday as well, 800m-1200m generally for Alps, 1400-1600m for NW Italy. The precipitation continuing in these areas well into the evening, and only slowly easing, with Freezing level continuing to fall, so most of the precipitation will be of snow to resort level. [attachment=146774:Alps 4 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Wed [/b][b][b][b]5 December [/b][/b] - [/b]The precipitation from previous days is set to continue into Wednesday, but moderate falls are likely over France and Switzerland at times, freezing levels around, 700m-900m generally for Alps, 1000-1100m for NW Italy. [attachment=146773:Alps 5 Dec.JPG]

    [b]Outlook - [/b]Looking generally unsettled with further precipitation, however freezing levels are difficult to determine as exact placement of low pressure is likely to effect wind directions involved.

    [b]Summary - [/b]For most resorts down to low levels, snow cover and depth with increase this week, with 50cm of new snow possible in some resorts, more especially towards the North West.
  24. J10
    [b]Overview[/b]

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]
    The past week has been very cold over much of Europe and there has been fresh snow over the Alps over this period. However with winds coming from a SW direction over the weekend, tuning a bit milder at least for a time. However turning back colder again for the start-middle part of next week.

    [b]Synoptic Charts [/b]

    The charts shown are based on the GFS run of 12Hz on Friday 18th Jan.

    There is Low Pressure over Northern Scandinavia and generally over the Northern latitudes, apart from a Surface High over Greenland (1024mb) with deep low pressure over. There is low pressure over Northern America and Iceland. There is low pressure over SE Europe and the Azores High is displaced further south than normal. There is High Pressure (1024mb) centred over Western Scandinavia feeding very cold Easterlies over the UK, Northern Europe including the Alps and Southern Scandinavia. Over Western parts of the UK there is a SE feed where the cold air has met a Atlantic front, this has led to heavy snow over many parts more especially over Southern and Western parts of the UK.
    [attachment=155367:18 Jan Actual.JPG]

    [b]Sat 19 Jan [/b]
    The Scandinavian High pressure moves slightly NW strengthening height to the North of the UK still bringing cold Easterly winds over the UK, parts of Northern Europe, and Northern parts of the Alps. The other change of note is a Low Pressure system to the North of the Azores moves Eastwards into France, and to the Eastern flank of this low pressure, there are SW winds feeding in some much milder weather for Western parts of the Alps.
    [attachment=155467:19 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Sun 20 Jan [/b]
    High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, but with high pressure building towards Greenland, keeping very cold air over the UK and Scandinavia. Low Pressure over Eastern Scandinavia, Low pressure over the Atlantic, encroaching the UK from the west. The Azores high remains displaced to the south,. Low pressure over France feeding mild SW winds now over much of the Alps and into Mainland Northern Europe however a part of this system will move Eastwards towards SE England, giving some snow here.
    [attachment=155466:20 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Monday 21 Jan[/b]
    High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, forming a block up towards Greenland, An area of Low Pressure from the Atlantic pushes over Southern and Western parts of the UK, giving another potential snow event for the UK, temps over the UK, now mixed out and this also applies for much of the Western mainland Europe. Low Pressure over Eastern Europe giving NE winds for Eastern parts of the Alps, however this looks a warm feed at this stage.
    [attachment=155465:Jan 21.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 22 Jan[/b]
    High Pressure over Western Scandinavia, still forms a block up towards Greenland, There is a main area of low pressure over the Atlantic with another offshoot close to the UK, this is set to give unsettled conditions over the UK and perhaps more snowfall. At this stage low pressure over central parts of Europe including the Alps with cool conditions here.
    [attachment=155464:22 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 23 Jan into Friday 25 Jan[/b]
    After this stage model disagreement again, it seems likely that the High Pressure over Scandinavia will dissipate, however the ECM tends to suggest there will still be cold air over much of Europe with low pressure and an Easterly feed, this would also keep things cold for the Alps. The GFS is more progressive in bringing the Atlantic in, this would mean milder SW winds for the UK by the Friday and slowly returning milder conditions over the Alps.
    [attachment=155463:23 Jan.JPG]
    [attachment=155462:24 Jan.JPG]
    [attachment=155461:25 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail [/b]

    [b]Sat 19 Jan [/b]
    Any precipitation in the east drying away quickly overnight, with some patchy precipitation in the far west for a time in the morning, but more general precipitation edges in the far west (Snow Level 1800m) and for Italy later (SL 200-400m).

    Freezing Levels French Alps 2100m, Switzerland 1200m (E) to 2100m (SW) Austria 0m (NE) to [s])[/s]1500m (SW), Italy 1200m generally, Germany 300m-900m
    [attachment=155528:Alps 19 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Sun 20 Jan [/b]
    Precipitation continuing across Italy in the morning (SL), but dry elsewhere to start, but spreading northwards into French Alps and Switzerland, and possibly SW Austria for the evening.
    Freezing Levels French Alps 1600-1800m, Italy 1200m (W)-2000m(E), Austria 300m (N)-2700m (Central and South) Switzerland 1500m (South Central) -2100m(E)
    [attachment=155527:Alps 20 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Monday 21 Jan[/b]
    Precipitation continuing overnight but becoming concentrated in Austria, with patchy showers elsewhere over the Alps during the day, snow levels 1000-1500m over Austria but start but dropping to around 400m-600m by evening.
    Freezing Levels French Alps 700-900m, Italy 1400m (W)-1600m(E), Austria 400m (N)-2100m and dropping during day (SE) Switzerland 700m (NW) -1600m (SE)
    [attachment=155526:Alps 21 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 22 Jan[/b]
    Showery outbreaks of precipitation to start the day but becoming more isolated and lighter during the evening. Most of the snow will fall to resort level during the day,
    Freezing Levels French Alps 700-1000m, Italy 800m (general)-1200m(W), Austria 300m (NE)-1000m(SW) Switzerland 700m (NW) -1000m (SE)
    [attachment=155525:Alps 22 Jan.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 23 Jan into Friday 25 Jan[/b]
    A lot of uncertainty at the moment, but probably staring quite cold for Wednesday and Thursday with maximum freezing levels of 600-900m generally, but closer to 1000-1400m for NW Italy, fringing SE Switzerland. A few showers seem likely for Wednesday but drier for Thursday.
    Perhaps a little milder on Friday with a few more in the way of showers.
  25. J10
    [b]Overview[/b]

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]

    There was again some snow at the start of the week, but milder temperatures over recent days has led to a thaw and the best conditions over the higher slopes. However conditions are set to improve over the weekend with snow and colder temperatures pushing in from the North West. this week is set to be generally cold and turning very cold by the mid part of next week.

    [b]Synoptic Charts [/b]

    [attachment=158686:Alps 1 Feb Actual.JPG]


    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Sat 2 Feb[/font][/b]
    [font=Arial","sans-serif]There is a deep area of low pressure (960mb) centred over North America, and covering the North Atlantic. Further south the Azores High has ridged north over the southern Atlantic, and has starting to ridge just west over the UK. Low pressure also for much of Europe, running down from Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and an area to the SE of the Alps. A cold northerly wind over the UK and over much of Scandinavia, cool over much of Northern mainland Europe including much of the Alps. Mild over SE parts of Europe.[/font]
    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif] [/font][/b]
    [attachment=158690:2 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Sun 3 Feb[/font][/b]
    [font=Arial","sans-serif]Remaining rather unsettled over much of the North Atlantic with low pressure dominating. The Azores High has ridged further North East, with West to North west winds over the Atlantic and over the UK, where there is a mild flow. Remaining cold and unsettled over Scandinavia, cold over much of the Alps with a NE winds and the eastern edge of the Azores High.[/font][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif] [/font]
    [attachment=158689:3 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Monday 4 Feb[/font][/b]
    Not that much change in the general pattern with low pressure over the North Atlantic and into Scandinavia. However further south west the Azores High ridges to the North West giving a NW feed over the Atlantic and into the UK and the Alps, feeding in a Polar Maritime airflow, cool to start of the UK and the Alps, turning colder in the UK later.
    [attachment=158688:4 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Tuesday 5 Feb [/font][/b]
    [font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]A surface High develops over Greenland and with the Azores High ridging north gives a temporary block over the Atlantic. There is low pressure over North America and also over much of Europe, this will give a cold NW flow over the UK, with the potential of wintry or snow showers over windward coasts, this airflow moderated by the time it reaches the Alps, but still cool here. [/font]
    [attachment=158683:5 Feb.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 6 Feb[/b]
    [font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Wednesday sees the whole pattern edge further east, a cold northerly flow still over the UK, with still the potential for wintry or snow showers over the UK [/font][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif] over windward coasts[/font]. The cold air is likely to have pushed further south into Europe and into the Alps with low pressure to the east. [/font]Low pressure still over America, with the Azores High starting to ridge closer to the UK from the south west.
    [attachment=158681:6 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri , sans-serif","serif]Thursday 7 Feb to Friday 8 Feb[/font][/b]
    A little bit of uncertainty towards the weekend, but the general theme is for the Azores high ridging closer to the UK, and introducing a little but less cold or maybe even mild air over the UK. Looking to remain unsettled over Europe and still looking cold over the Alps with a wind direction probably from a general northerly direction.
    [attachment=158679:7 Feb.JPG]
    [attachment=158677:8 Feb.JPG]


    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Sat 2 Feb[/font][/b]
    [font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Heavy precipitation is edging South East over the Alps overnight and into Saturday, by 6am, there is heavy precipitation over Switzerland, the French Alps, fringing NW Italy, parts of Southern Germany and W Austria,. Snow levels 700m back edge of front to 1300m front edge of front. During the afternoon the front pushing away quickly through the Alps into Italy and Croatia, but still some precipitation for much of the Alps, moderate over parts of Austria, snow levels 600m-800m. Patchy snow continuing during the evening to increasingly low levels. [/font]

    [size=4]Maximum Freezing levels (noon) around 700-900m French Alps, 600m-1000m Switzerland, around 700m Southern Germany, Austria 700m (N) to 1300m (S), Italian Alps 1000-1400m.[/size]
    [attachment=158700:Alps 2 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Sun 3 Feb[/font][/b]
    [size=4]Moderate snow continuing for a time overnight but becoming increasingly patchy as the day proceeds and largely dry in most places by mid afternoon, with a lot of cold and sunny weather likely. [/size]
    [size=4]Maximum Freezing levels (noon) around 600m French Alps, 500m-1000m Switzerland, around 400-600m Southern Germany, Austria 300m (N) to 700m (SE), Italian Alps 700-1000m[/size].
    [attachment=158699:Alps 3 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Monday 4 Feb[/font][/b]
    [size=4]Further precipitation edging down form the North during the early morning reaching all of the Alps except most of Italy and SE Austria. By 6am, generally moderate and snow to most resort levels. [/size]
    [size=4]The precipitation continuing through the day in the same sorts of areas, before slowly fading during the evening, snow becoming confined to middle slopes up during the day as it is milder than recent days. [/size]
    [size=4]Maximum Freezing levels (noon) around 1400-1600m French Alps, 1400m-2000m Switzerland, around 1000-1600m Southern Germany, Austria 1000m (NE) to 1800m (SW), Italian Alps 800m (E) to 2000m (NW)[/size]
    [attachment=158698:Alps 4 Feb.JPG]
    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Tuesday 5 Feb [/font][/b]

    [size=4]Dry in the south to start, but patchy precipitation in Northern areas, during the afternoon this developing into a heavier burst of precipitation for the French Alps, NW Switzerland and SW Germany. By evening this moving eastwards, with some heavy precipitation over much of the western half of the Alps and Western Austria. Snow levels dropping through the day around 1400m to start to around 800m by 9pm. [/size]
    [size=4]Maximum Freezing levels (noon) around 1400-1600m French Alps, 1200m-1800m Switzerland, around 1200-1600m Southern Germany, Austria 1200m (NE) to 1600m (SW), Italian Alps 1200m (E) to 1600m (NW)[/size]
    [attachment=158697:Alps 5 Feb.JPG]

    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Wednesday 6 Feb[/font][/b]

    [size=4]Precipitation (largely snow) to start over many parts of the Alps, but becoming confined to SE and Eastern parts by afternoon, however some heavy snow is possible here. This moving away later, but snow showers possible over the Alps later in the day. [/size]
    [size=4]Maximum Freezing levels (noon) around 200-400m French Alps, 200m-400m Switzerland, around 200-400m Southern Germany, Austria 200m (NW) to 600m (SE), Italian Alps 400m to 800m [/size]
    [size=4][attachment=158696:Alps 6 Feb.JPG][/size]

    [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Thursday 7 Feb to Friday 8 Feb[/font][/b]
    [size=4]A cold end to the week seems likely with freezing levels close to Wednesday’s levels at this stage, further snow is possible on Thursday but generally moderate at most, but Friday looks rather dry.[/size]

    [size=4][attachment=158695:Alps 7 Feb.JPG][/size]
    [size=4][attachment=158694:Alps 8 Feb.JPG][/size]
×
×
  • Create New...