jvenge

As a FYI, a lot of the US forecasters have been whinging that the GFS puts things too far east,

Cos its a model discussion thread :-) thats the whole point of it - discuss the models

Hi, You seem to know your stuff ;-) Does the NAO going negative impact the frequency and intensity of these things?

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but the speed of this one might be related to the NAO going negative as compared to positive earlier in the month? Some uncertainty on if it stays negative or goes back positive at this stage.

Although not strictly UK related, have you lot seen the output the the US next week? Pretty much all models agreeing on another brutal cold shot for them. ECWMF performing well for the US this winter. GFS? Not so well, inclined to put things a little too far east. I must say it's hard to recall such a wet festive period. I live on a hill and even I'm starting to see a lot of standing water now.

The quickest way to deep cold right now would be some form of blocking developing over Greenland. Others would likely disagree. That's not an impossibility. There is more potential in what is seen now than what was seen in December. Don't listen to those joke forecasters :-) They took a stab in the dark, likely based around last winter, and got it massively wrong. The only people worse than them are the newspapers who give them somewhere to vent.

Not likely to! First half of December was technically different to the second part. First part of Jan currently looking like a slightly cooler version of this week (my opinion!). Anything can and will happen. I think everyone agree there isn't gonna be a deep freeze in the first half of Jan though.

Models seem to be suggesting a slightly less mild version of what we have had this week. Storms, just not quite as mild. Maybe snow for some. Not gonna try past day 8 or so though.

Hi All, Hope you all had a good Christmas. The large amounts of wine I drank yesterday is lingering a bit this morning. I'm still trying to learn things here and I don't want to start criticising, but it is actually hard to figure out what you lot been by "mild" or "cold". For example, today in my neck of the woods it will struggle to get above 2 degrees today. However, I get the impression you lot don't think this is cold. The weather forecast tells me it will get a little warmer for the weekend, with temps around 7 degrees. So, when you say no signs of cold, are you basically saying no signs of days where it doesn't get above freezing? No sign of prolonged cold (3-4 days or more)? It seems a lot of people spend time discussing the model outputs but don't actually translate what it would actually equate to in real terms. Again, I'm not going to tell you what you should and shouldn't discuss, but it would be helpful for a little more detail.

No, there isn't. Of course, you have the El Nino and La Nina years, which I think is every 3-5 years (from memory) and that can impact the weather, but other than that, there are no short term cycles I can think of which would impact just a few years. Some people link to 30 year or so cycles, but even in those you can get those few odd years! Have a google for El Nino and La Nina effects. Tis a bit soon to be writing winter off so soon in. I mean, December is an early winter month. Look what happened in Jan, Feb and March this year.

Because there are 5 or so different models, which rarely agree completely quite far out. Then we have the fact that a lot of people have a bias towards either cold or mild, which comes across in their views of the models. Also, most are just keen ameatures here, so they will get it wrong. If the last 5 pages tells you anything, its that things can change quickly and that many people who post here arent objective. :-)Dont stress it and just take it for what it is.

Fair. However, correct me if I'm wrong, even if the stratosphere is warming, I believe it will take around 3 weeks to impact anything here? Again, that's assuming it is indeed happening as reported.

Fair enough. As long as we agree that although it is at a "maximum" that maximum is fairly low compared to historic data.

Don't want to pick an argument on my first post, but can you back that up? I mean, as far as I know the Sun is currently at a 400 year minimum. What's your source to say its at maximum?