jvenge

Agree with your sentiments in general, but you must admit, more than a "brief" period of mild is currently the favoured, not that it means it will or won't happen. At the same time, can't really write the next two weeks off either.

Careful what you wish for :-) I'm wearing thermals this week, hmph.

On the plus side, unlike December, cold air is never really too far away from the UK. I've not managed to look more than 10 days out so far, anything of interest in the more unreliable time frame?

That you didn't notice a thread :-D Agree that you couldn't call it a cold spell really, just average. I guess it feels like a cold spell after the mild mush.

That's quite bad for a member of the forum team :-)

Maybe I'm dim witted, but there appears to be quite a big scatter there and I don't know how it can be said they are in agreement.

Hi Mucka. Did the 72-96 range settle down yet?

Some chap here posts verification starts fairly often and it is usually ranked ECM, UKMO and GFS if memory serves.

That's an interesting chart, thanks. Where is it from? In any event, I hope you guys get something good soon. We are thawing from last week currently.

I doubt it. Away from the hills I haven't seen anything to show anything other than rain/sleet. Maybe someone can post some charts rather than weather forecasts if they think differently?

8.1 from 1934 and 1974. It's looking highly likely that it will be broken.

I don't think anyone really wants a warm and mushy Christmas :-) The GSF members look all over the place after day 6 to be honest. I'm looking at them from my part of the World and I could be enjoying anything from -9 to +6 just 6 days out.

They are 2 meter temperatures, which obviously have some flaws, but not enough to make a huge difference.

That's quite a big change. It will be interesting to see if the 06z backs it as well. Apart from the upcoming weekend, which is looking more seasonal and may indeed lead to snow even at modest levels in the north, it is hard to see where any chance of cold comes after that. Indeed, 0z is showing temps close to the teens for some days on the run up to Christmas.

Well, Mucka did say it was just for fun. It's also at 372 and has little support.

To be honest, other than one run yesterday, there wasn't anything showering wintery yesterday and certainly not a trend. Also, in regards to what IanF did or didn't say, it is no wonder these people don't post here often as people seem incapable of actually reading what they say. He actually said that the probability of any prolonged cold for the remainder of December to Early Jan was low. This doesn't mean there won't be days where it is colder. He then goes on to say the models are agreeing on "mild and unsettled often". Actually model related if people bothered to quote him directly.

It is quite unlikely that the exact run will verify and it is much less than a 20% chance ;-) The GFS has been changing almost every run, even for my part of the World. Don't put too much stock into anything past 6 days at the moment :-) Having said that, it is certainly possible, otherwise it wouldn't have shown ;-)

Ah, it will change the next run :-) Past 5 days they seem to be changing each run. Hoping for some seasonal weather for Christmas when I visit, but nothing too hazardous :-) I will get the cold here regardless.

That must be tricky for the season. What temperatures are you experiencing?

That's interesting at 10 days, for me anyway ;-) Likely not much chance of it happening though.

Hi, Can you advise where those graphs can be obtained from? I'd like to look for my part of the World :-)

Well, not sure :-) It is December to February and I imagine its the anomaly over 3 months, so Scotland starting a little colder doesn't mean it will continue to be. Also, if you break down the colours, the anomaly isn't really that big in the grand scheme of things. Also, it appears only part of Scotland is above and only part of English below.

Well, the models aren't showing it, so it is a fair point. I don't think he meant to say that there is no chance of any northerly blocking for the next 3 months, but more that there isn't anything to make it seem likely the next two weeks or so.

For me it is hard to imagine how they get that for all but the hills in England. I just don't see how it will be cold enough, unless it is during the night.

Well, he got it without ;-) I'll say please though ;-) A lot gets discussed about the UK and US, but in Eastern Europe not so much. Any thoughts for my little country? :-D