jvenge

It didn't exactly do a fantastic job with Eastern Europe all the way to the eastern edge of Russia, did it? ;-)

Hi, If you want to look for a destroyer of ice, watch for spring. I think this is the season people should be most worried about in regards to sea ice loss (if they are worried at all).

I think it is fairly normal in cold winters not influenced strongly by El Nino/La Nina for the cold to end up where it has been so far. I'm sure someone here has analogue years, but not really what this thread is for.

Might disappoint a some hoping for benefit of an Easterly. Still, at that range, relatively small changes could result in something a little better.

It's rolling out now, so let's see.

I think large parts of it froze in the 2010-2011 winter. I don't think it freezes over entirely too often. I guess 87 would have been the last time?

I see, thanks for that and others who also answered. GFS and a lot of its ensembles seems quite keen to bring a period of below average temperature to large parts of Eastern Europe, with some extending to Central Europe from around T138 onwards. It has played the last few runs with just how below average and how far west it will make it, but the trend is widely the same. Interestingly, this could bring some ice days to large parts and for the time of year, it is very unusual, although not unheard of.

I'll bite. Can someone explain why a west based NAO is so feared by the cold lovers?

Close to average, which isn't too bad, of course.

At T240 cold temps are very close for the UK. Not sure where it goes from there.

Isn't that the most likely? Negative AO and AMO giving a greeny high and putting Europe into an easterly and the UK into N/NE (I'd guess more likely NE?). I'm a bit of a noob though.

Possible I guess, along with the AO being negative. Just because it allows colder air to mid latitudes, doesn't mean over the UK ;-)

Was similar to the Monday CSFv2 as well. Didn't check if it changed its mind since then.

Hi, Towards the end of August and start of September, there was a sudden melting event in the Antarctic. This has brought down the average significantly and because of the time of year it is down there, there isn't anything that can reverse it, but perhaps some weather events could help slow it, who knows. This is compounded further by extremely sluggish growth of Arctic ice in October. You will likely find by mid December it will be much closer to "normal" or a few deviations away from it. Perhaps as time goes on there will be a paper to explain the Antarctic one and if it was responsible for the unusual cold in Australia or not.

Hi, Perhaps someone can educate me. Attached you have T192 temp anomalies for 2m and 850 hPa. As you see, where 850 hPa is showing no anomaly or even a warm one, the 2m is showing a strong cold anomaly. What am I missing?

Maybe I don't read enough into what Ian says, or maybe others read way too much into it. To me he hasn't said anything other than pointing out that the models are still showing an uncertain situation, which is pretty much the same as yesterday....

Either yesterday or the day before (getting old), I was browsing through the CFSv2 and the second half of December was a snow fest for the UK. It's not a model I take overly seriously, though, but in fairness at least it puts itself out there with the long term stuff :-)

It's quite interesting to see the ensembles head in all kinds of different directions in a relatively short period (less than 24 hours). They don't even agree at T96, but after that they start comings up with all kinds of options.

Ha, the control started celebrating Christmas early. Not a bad mean, though. ECM closer to the GFS mean than control.

Welcome back, Knocker. I missed your morning summary posts of the GFS.

AO looks to be heading negative in the next 3-5 days and looks set to stay that way well into December. CSFv2, ECMWF, Canadian and GEFS all showing this, but some disagreement on how negative it will go.

Last 7 days 2m temp anomaly Crazy to see how cold Scandinavia was. Next 7 days 2m temp anomaly

Two runs a day vs 4 runs a day, I guess? I generally prefer the 0z. I forget which of the two out of 4 GFS runs contain most data thought. The 6z has gone against recent GFS ensemble trends and slightly backtracked on how many members are keeping Eastern Europe below average in the more unreliable time frame. It will be interesting to see if the 12z goes back to the 0z thoughts, backs the 06z or even goes in a different direction :-) Certainly not boring though, is it?

Past GFS runs have been more bullish in terms of bringing colder air to Eastern Europe. Good support from this in GFS ensembles from T72 all the way to T384. Very few mild options showing. Does it mean it is right? Of course not! But a trend is a trend :-)

Indeed knocker, 3 or so days of very warm (unusually warm) days for that region coming up. There looks to be a return to average after that, though. Personally I'm looking forward to a little warm up, as it was a cold October and I feel Autumn skipped.