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Badgers01

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Posts posted by Badgers01

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Morning all,Just to confirm this is an SSW as stated by Marco Patanga senior meteorologist at the Met office also could 

    possibly become major if winds track to east.This just to let you know is on his blog so not pie in the sky a definite reality.Will be very interesting watch in weather terms for northern blocking,latest GFS 06z picking this signal up going to be intriguing to say the least.

    Can you quote where he has said that ..? 

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Liam Burge said:

    GFS: Current run

    image.thumb.png.1f4e95498bda1b658fe98a80e026f918.png

    GFS: Previous run
    image.thumb.png.e61452dd879c25372b52c7e6c2d0167f.png

     

    ICON: Current run
    image.thumb.png.db138794f44cc324bd67c22a5cad0eac.png

    ICON: Previous run

    image.thumb.png.0d5c35a0a28d008421e8d97aeab727e5.png

     

    UKV: Current run
    image.thumb.png.d2a681d4fd8ecf9d502fcefc2ab1f292.png

    UKV: Previous run

    image.thumb.png.36ba44a73cc62a1b82c5d2dc43a318fa.png

     

    Like I said I'm not generalising the whole of the UK when I say there has been a slight downgrade (some areas have suffered the complete opposite) however most models for MY area have downtrended ever so slightly (5-8mph).

    You are correct those current runs all show reduced maximum gusts for a lot of areas including Surrey ! 

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Stabilo19 said:

    Been tracking Met Office app forecast daily, it's gone from 50s to 60s and now 70 mph gusts for central London Friday afternoon. 

    I don't wish death & destruction on anyone/thing but extreme weather is very exciting IMO! (and this is a weather forum after all).

    Totally agree - plus one can wish it to happen or not , it makes no difference to the outcome ! The weather will do what it will do !

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 11/12/2021 at 11:40, TSNWK said:

    This for me set the alarm bells running on the 06z.  The umpth to climb up not there so flops towards scandi and then down

    Just shows that despite what many are saying this far from guaranteed … when historically has a high pushed north /north west this time of year hardly ever ! 
     

    it is however providing interesting model watching whatever transpires ! 

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Badgers01

    On 27/10/2021 at 23:39, damianslaw said:

    Very brief lull.. rain quickly came back. However there has been a shift north in the front.. but there are developing waves on it.. and I suspect it has reached it's most northerly position. It will ever so slowly shift southward next 24 hrs which means the Lake District will bear the full force for quite some time. The similarities with 18-19 Nov 2009 and 5 Dec 2015 are startling synoptic wise. 

    I am sure after 2009 the rainfall event was described as a 1 in 100 years event … are we really looking at the 3rd time in 12 years ..??

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 17/10/2021 at 14:57, Eagle Eye said:

    This is why I don't post things like that here usually

    I just noticed the fact that when that low swings down it weakens the Atlantic which further out which I very simply explained in that post. 

    Well just have to wait and see won't we, remember this is the first time I've tried doing an in-depth forecast let alone a Winter one. 

    ThTs fair enough and I hAve no wish to dampen your enthusiasm but we do strive here to a semblance of science and reasoning - people will comment on things you post - that’s what happens on a forum !

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 17/10/2021 at 13:53, Eagle Eye said:

    Definitly, we cannot be sure after all it is one low but look at my post yestersy for a more in depth look as to why its pretty important though 

    I did and there is no explanation or reasoning of a mechanism that could lead to an early winter …. !!??

     

    potentially really quite warm early next week not sure we can say for certainty much beyond that we are only just half way through Autumn  !

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 17/10/2021 at 11:33, Eagle Eye said:

    Good to see I'm not alone in my predictions yesterday

    874271775_gfsnh-0-144(2).thumb.png.5459f9e6f0ca928bf03571d83a794654.png

    That low to the West of the weakening Greenland low is getting closer to it every single run. If that combines with it then the delaying of Winter will be cut back to my original forecast and we WILL have an early Winter in my opinion almost definite. 

    Next Saturday I will write up based on yesterday's predictions and therefore my predictions for Winter, so dad I'm happy with how the runs are going what 8 am hoping for is a weakere Atlantic because if that intervenes like I said yesterday it will delay Winter, anything could happen right now but a decent chunk of the opportunity goes to my early Winter prediction. 

    Not sure we can say that the phasing of one low will result in a definite early winter ..!! 

    • Like 1

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    The weather in Lincoln has recently been "usable" - nothing too exciting, but Wednesday had a mix of cloudy spells and some sunny intervals, and yesterday was mainly sunny.  Today has sunny intervals but it's windy.  It's been around 22 to 24C.

    I'd say it's been a decent summer so far in these parts.  It's been let down by a rather dull second half of June, and the first half of July was dull but redeemed to some extent by frequent thunderstorms, but the first half of June was warm and sunny and there was that hot sunny spell in mid to late July, and August so far has had some decent if unremarkable weather.  To a certain extent I'm reminded of summer 2005, which I thought was almost a very good summer but it was let down by the very dull second half of July, but still at least decent overall.  That summer had some big storms in Lincolnshire and NE England as well.

    certainly 2013-20 inclusive have all had significant heatwaves somes hort or long but down here in the south  we have had a run of generally good summers through this period this year has been poor ....

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