[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, if it wast 4am I'd expect there would be a few comments on the 00z GFS, infinitely better at 144 with WAA heading into Greenland.

Couldnt agree more, ive noticed over the last few runs the gfs wants to strengthen the arctic high. At one point it reaches 1055mb hopefully this trend continues .. could be an interesting FI coming up?

 

 

Ukmo goes the same way could be a very busy day in here today

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Reload from the gfs!,did ecm do this yesterday evening

yes it did,although the gfs is a bit less amplified

 

Beat me to it ....

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

 

Gfs has another go in deep fi of reinvigorating the arctic high.. Overall we can firmly say a change is on the way whether it falls for us this time is yet to be seen. Await the ecm with interest, will it follow ukmo, gem or gfs? place your bets...

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

for comparison at 144

ukmo   

 

Gfs         

 

 

Gem  

 

As we can see at 144 Gem and ukmo manage to push more waa into the artic where as the gfs cuts the height rises off over ne usa. 

 

 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There is still uncertainty on a more westerly pattern setting up later next week after a few days of much colder air according to the professionals; that to me says the charts of a few days ago showing more blocking are still possible.

Let's hope for an afternoon evening of upgrades towards longevity of cold, along with driers weather for all....We would all like to keep any zonal type weather away, whatever your preferences.

Lets hope by tonight we will be seeing the polar vortex looking like this.

On a more serious note and as a newbie to commenting on this forum (although I have been lurking for some years) most of the gefs ensembles have a complete northern hemisphere change occurring..

To further this with the recent comments from Ian f regarding any uncertainty I think that this could be the most positive stage of winter so far from a coldies perspective. 

Any help if im incorrect regarding the ensembles would be gratefully appreciated and would help me a lot.

 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

Can you imagine that would just be our luckkk......

 

Cold spreading into africa?

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

Gfs goes the same way as 00zs ECMWF with better amplification at 162 hours than previous run... ?