[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

850 temps can be, and in some very Northern areas will be in the next few days!!

Fair enough I stand corrected 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

13 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Evening everyone, long time no post - 

Please someone correct me if I'm completely wrong, but i think i have just found public ECMWF ensemble data (freely available).

http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ecmwf/?latlon=34.60,15.12

On the side panel where you can search for the city you would like ensembles for, select the city and click the ok button. Then, because for some reason you have to be at certain co-ordinates, drag the curser on the map to somewhere around the figure below:

 

Once the curser has been dropped around here, boom, you get your spaghetti ensemble forecasts, and now we can see why @bluearmy was talking about the control run....

Onto the 18z... Lets she what we have.

 

EDIT: Those are the 00z ensembles, not sure when it will update to 12z 

EDIT 2: No, the dream is over, It says London on the graph but the Lat and Long remain on the placement of the curser - Nearest i can get the cursor to us is Switzerland, still, guess we can have a look at Eastern Europes cold instead then... 

I may be wrong but if the cursor is in north Africa surely the temps would not be 0c?

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Anyone fancy the CFS for Christmas day ?

 

2 Days Later 8-)









 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bizarre good consistency between two GFS runs! Lol I think we'll need two bites of the cherry here to get the coldest air south, so that shortwave energy you see near southern Greenland at T192 hrs needs to cut se and reinforce the troughing over mainland Europe.

No luck this time with the low but even then we end up with this ...






Are we finally entering a period where even when it goes wrong it still ends up right???

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Great upgrade, along the lines GFS but an even better block to the NW. Are we slowly getting some agreement in the models here I wonder, 168 was the time that Ian F was saying was tricky to look beyond. 

Yeah totally agree. The thing for me is something I touched on the other day which is the continued lack of reformation in any run of the re emergence of the PV(in its usual home). Given model bias to revert to a 'normal' default pattern makes it even more interesting as any run that shows a hint of a more westerly regime is followed quite swiftly by the removal of this notion with subsequent runs. All in all it makes for very interesting model watching over the next couple of days(weeks).

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Spot the difference

168 ECM

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Better ECM run out to 144 so far , higher heights around Greenland and also better separation of the LP system.

 

[Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

No they're not, they have all the major models. WZ is simply a hosting site where you can view all the models, much like Netweather, much like Meteociel.

Wetterzentrale means "Weather Central" in German. A central point where you can assess all models.

[Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction]

3 minutes ago, iapennell said:

when Wetterzentrale has shown cold northerlies

Your still missing the point that people are trying to make .

Wetterzentrale , Meteociel are all websites that provide us with different charts to view, whether this be the GFS, ECM, NAVGEM, GEM etc..

We are merely trying to ascertain what charts on the sites you are viewing to make your assumptions.

NOT THE WEBSITE THE CHART:)

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Oh Polar Vortex where art thou?

The lack of any reformation is becoming more and more evident. GFS is in no hurry to see a westerly regime return.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Just find it so interesting that given GFS bias for zonality that each op run continues to show little or no return to the zonal onslaught that we have become all so familiar with over the past few winters . Interesting times ahead I believe. 

Any updates for us Ian F? 

18z .... Need I say anything else.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

9 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

What time does the GFS update? 

 

22:30 till 00:00

[Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards]

 

Interesting 240 chart from ECM!!! Atlantic ridge starting to show its hand ?

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Cant post charts which is annoying????? But look how far WAA gets north on this run. 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Next tuesday....6z

 

From 0z



I'd imagine that anyone planning to go skiing in the alps can take some comfort there.....  to my untrained eye the oz looked a shocker for skiers though 6z isn't much better.

Hope the encroaching of the cold pool from the east carries on in future runs

6z run looks a lot better run to me from 150 onwards. Big heights building to our north east!

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

At T138 12 ensemble memebers have better links than the op.. small glimmer of hope. As far as the 18z op goes, DREADFUL! Even the warming isnt as prononuced. 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

 

Lets just hope by the start of February we will be all wondering how many lows can track along the south coast. GEFS are starting to turn out some lovely looking charts ( if your looking for cold) but as was said further up they all do show areas of high pressure situated around the UK. So even if we did get high pressure of some sort were not guaranteed cold weather at all. 

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

Wont let me post charts from GFS 12z but from T324 onwards can that be classed as a major strat warming?

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Latest ec 12z courtesy of ian f on twitter. Note these are 850 predicted temps.

He also sais and I quote *there is a signal for +ve GPH anomaly building later Jan across/N/NE of the UK but not all ensembles go that route.*

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Weatherweb have amended their February forecast based on the CFS anomalies (or at least are on the verge of amending it).  They now suggest an ever-strengthening Jet with lower heights to the north and higher heights to the south, bringing a mean westerly flow - wet and windy conditions prevailing.

EDIT:  Forgot link - apologies.

 

 

Cfs cant even predict next weeks weather let alone next months 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Further to my earlier post-

eh up!

A repeat cycle to the one we've just seen and all set into motion at day 7.....

Some interesting charts being turned out in FI all have height rises of sorts either sitting over us, Atlantic ridges or heights building over Scandinavia. For me I think our next cold spell might come from an Atlantic ridge rather than any heights over Scandinavia. 

I think Ian F also said something along these lines the other day although I may stand corrected at some point.

 

 

Some are there, some are on the way and some may not get there at all. There are a few other perps that would show this kind of setup in the next few frames as well. An interesting amount of support given the time frame of course all to be taken with a pinch of salt nonetheless still something to keep an eye on.

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

When this is the eye candy, I know were in trouble . In fairness, they are pretty much the best on offer from the GEFS.

To be fair t384 does give us this ...

All for fun of course 

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

Just to lighten the mood and give us all some time to destress here are some eye candy charts to help us all sleep !

We can all dream eyyy! 

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

I count 16 gefs members at t66 that go with the low sliding !!!

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

 

GEM not as good as UKMO but even that looks at the GFS and tells it 'go home your drunk'.  GFS miles out on its own, someone call it a taxi.