mickpips
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Posts posted by mickpips
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Not read through the comments but wanted to say how disappointed I have been with tonights storm potential ..... other than a few 'minor' lightning strikes towards the NW and a few very isolated downpours across the north of England ... here in Leeds we have had two periods of what I would call 'spot' rain today .... so much for the 'severe' potential. Having said that , it is still extremely muggy out at the moment
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26 minutes ago, snowray said:
There simply isn't the depth of cold that we saw the other day digging well South over the whole of the UK, so when the PPN arrives it is only a wintry mess for the majority in Lowland England on the first slider. Wales/N Midlands above 100m look best, but only the very Northern boundary looks Wintry.
No point in discussing the 2nd low, could end up going into France, hoping for 12z upgrades on this one.
So your taking ppn maps as gospel for the initial ( Friday low ) but discounting the secondary low ? as it 'may' end up in France. Very little movement of the initial low would mean that ppn forecast map to be incorrect too
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4 minutes ago, Orpingtoniceagedec10 said:
Sorry.bit of a Newby. Can anyone tell me what WAA is please?
If you hover over WAA it tells you what the abbreviation means , - warm air advection up towards Greenland and the Arctic in this instance
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9 minutes ago, Kieran said:
High extending into greenland at 192, could be an attempt at an undercut. Interesting trend emerging
Edit: Atlantic wins out at 210 but wouldn't take much for the Atlantic to get blocked off and that cold to our east to nudge our way.
The cold to our East ? There is very little cold to tap in to from my reading and if anybody is looking for snow at that time period , 850's conducive to snowfall are 100's of miles away
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20 minutes ago, Nick L said:
This is a bit of a flawed argument to be honest. You're (rightly) talking about differences if 10s of miles. But in terms of days ahead we're talking about broad scale, general patterns rather than local features like tonight.
True , in the grand scale of things ... I was just trying to make out , locally things can be so different to those forecast , meteorically things remain the same upstream , an onslaught from the SW seems inevitable next week
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If the Met can't even predict this evenings snow with any certainty ( predicted a western pennine into the midlands snow event ) yet Yorkshire ( further East ) saw the frontal band move through and lay down several cm's of snow , how can any model output be taken at current output to be decided at +24 yet alone beyond ?
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Radar shows PPN just about cleared from Leeds but snow fall has gone from light to moderate again
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2 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:
Another heavier patch now over Sheffield, think we'll top out between 1-2 inches in the end, its just over an inch now.
As predicted
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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
The radar actually had it within 30-40 miles of me early this evening - not sure if it ever got that far though I strongly doubt it. The frustration is the remnants of my ice cover is now disappearing and this would of been the perfect time for a front like this to hit us.
The netweather radar showed light ppn over myself from 4pm this afternoon , and yes it was cloudy but nothing fell from the sky until about 7pm
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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
You bastards, you absolute bastards. Would it have been so hard to share?
Even a miracle was never gonna push it that far NorthEast , pmsl
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Never a truer word ...
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precise measurement just outside Leeds City centre is 4cm bang on .... on car roof
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Judging the radar , I would say Leeds will see lighter stuff for the next hour or so , Barnsley will see something a little heavier over the next hour , Sheffield I can see another few cm's incoming later this evening from the NW , Anything North or East of these locations may see flurries
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2 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:
Leeds definately the winnter tonight
Problem with this 'proper' snow is its all tiny flakes. We only really get deep snow when its slightly milder and its the big flakes. I would say there still isnt quite a cm even up here yet for me. Still its been a lovely evening to just sit and watch the snow flutter down. Not a breath of wind!
Current Temp -1.3 degree's and steady snowfall just outside Leeds City centre, about 4cm of snow
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I think even the Met Office got this one wrong , forecasted the front to move down the West and into the Midlands but its all shifted further East
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15 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:
What's your exact location? Is there much near Shadwell, Scarcroft, Wike area?
I'm in Hunslet , just south of the City centre but I have friends north of Leeds that say there is about 2 inch there now
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1 minute ago, farmans said:
This talk of a Sheffield snow shield....Where did that come from? Over the last few years we have done super well for snow and I think many would call us a snow magnet.
I work across Yorkshire and many a times last year I would leave and return to a snowy Sheffield whilst many places just outside Sheffield would have little if any snow.
Even today, it was doubtful that we would get snow but looking out of the window in the lower eastern part of the city (where Im now visiting friends) the snow is coming down relatively heavy. I live in the north of the city and expect more snow to be building on the ground there.
Sheffield is very lucky for all the snow it has had over the last few years, no shield here - you only have to ask those further east and west to know that.
Totally agree , I've seen heavy snow in Sheffield when very little elsewhere
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Good couple of cm's here now , I was a bit worried I wouldn't see snow as moved recently from North Leeds to just outside the Centre. The snow is falling pretty steady and no wind at all !
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A very reasoned post Nick , without doubt there is potential but if the Met favour an Atlantic return and are currently feeding beeb forecasts on such for next week , personally I would favour their opinion over what even their model output suggests for next week , however , it has been known for them to change their minds at the last minute
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21 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Just watched Alex Deakin at 10:40 on BBC1.
He stated that the milder air May well arrive by midweek.
At the time he was standing in front of a chart showing a 1035Mb high from Scotland upto the West Coast of Norway.
Interesting because I haven't see the high that far north east on any of the charts that have been published on here.
This evenings Fax chart my be better than expected.
As stated this afternoon , both the Beeb and Met forecasts appeared to be following the GFS output , stating a return to milder SW ( Atlantic ) driven weather anywhere from Monday to Wednesday , Despite the METO charts released only two hours later that totally dismissed such !
Your guess is as good as mine , I view almost every model output religiously and have done for the 10+ years of following this thread and can only give one word of advice , back against the UK Met Forecast at your peril
As such , I do expect the Atlantic to be the driving force by mid week next week at the latest and expect a backtrack from the METO and ECM tomorrow-
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1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:
No, I think that it is released at practically the same time to the public as the Meto see it. However, they do get to see a longer range than the public release.
Just very confusing though wouldn't you agree ? They obviously chose 'their' update to reflect what the GFS was showing
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The problem is even the Met Office do not believe in their own output , surely they must see this output before the general public so why update their extended outlook to suggest the return of milder temps from the SW next week ? Not only that , they have changed it from 'Mid Week' to 'Early-Mid week' .... Wouldn't that suggest they believe more in the GFS projection ?
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To my eyes the GFS 06Z appears to be bringing the SW'LYs in even earlier on Sunday !
Hurricane Ophelia
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Was very cloudy up to about an hour ago here in Leeds , which started to clear with a very orange sun poking through the mist / dust. Its now brilliant sunshine but there is a distinct smokey smell in the air.