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mickpips

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Posts posted by mickpips

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Folks..this is my first post here so please excuse me if i happen to put my foot in my mouth.

    A number of you have mentioned (teits and bftp i think) that fronts have a tendency to be pushed East over time...e.g. the low pressure system coming from the North may be pushed east.

    Why is this?...is it the high pressure system or pressure from the lows in the Atlantic that cause this?

    Most of you are hoping the low pressure system (thats shown on the models moving from the north at the weekend) moves more East on the ECMWF?

    is this from a purely a snow event point of view or is there something else you are looking at like colder winds?

    Cheers.smile.gif

    I think you may have misunderstood ... its not that they move East , but the modelling tends to forecast many to be too far west ... I have seen this on countless occasions over the years and as some have pointed out , its usually when we are foecast for a huge northerly blast etc , for it then to pan out to move through the North Sea. On this occasion everything is out west so fingers crossed it all shifts East a tad :)

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have a dream sometimes - only sometimes mind!

    That is that we could have a section in the weather forum where only posts trying as hard as possible to give a posters views on what the models ACTUALLY appear to show NOT WHAT THEY MIGHT LIKE them to show is available. Its usually called the Technical discussion thread but why oh why can't we have a similar attempt on here.

    Now I can make a fairly good case using the last 24 hours outputs from the models and their ensembles for it turning less cold-milder if you prefer that term. Equally I can I think make as good a case for showing that the ensembles or some models show the case for the cold returning.

    the TRICK is to take ALL the information we have on the web, on Net Wx and elsewhere and TRY and make fair and unbiased prediction from all that data.

    To be honest I am more than a touch fed up with so many TRYING to show that this or that model indicates the cold will stay/return-why cannot we have a balanced unbiased view please?

    John , it does sound like you having a bit of a tantrum there :doh:

    I do however find that post rather confusing , basically if individuals are looking for cold or milder weather and talking about possible evolutions then where is the problem ?

    Personally i do not post often ( in fact rarely ) on here but surely this is the model discussion thread and discussing what the models are CURRENTLY showing and what the possible evolutions of said output might become is all model discussion in my eyes and quite relevant ..... Quite frankly I prefer to read posts from the likes of Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, TEITS etc etc who discuss exactly this, not just what the models/ensembles etc are showing but possible upstream evolutions , whether it be mild, cold, gale force winds etc etc

    Mick

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all ,

    At Least another 2 inch of snowfall overnight in North East Leeds ... I know as i cleared my pathway last night, unfortunately i didnt have time to measure it this morning before heading to work.

    Extremely tricky driving conditions with every road on my 6 mile journey being decidedly dodgey !

    Passing through Leeds Centre and out the other side at Hunslet , the fall is less with approx an inch of extra snow overnight.

    I dont expect much through the course of today , but early evening and overnight looks like the shower activity should pep up once again ... and then tomorrow evening could provide significant accumalations across the region once more.

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Are there many school closures around your way, mickpips? According to local Radio, there's been 175 in

    North Yorkshire today :lol:

    TBH , I dont know of any schools that are Open , BBC radio Leeds said this morning they were going to mention schools that were open instead of closed because the closed list was too huge !

    I also know a member of staff here at work has also been informed his son's school has already decided they are closed for tomorrow.

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Great to wake up to about an extra 2 inch of snow this morning ( probably more ) , got to work for 6am about a mile out of the city centre and cleared our car park , since then we have had about another inch covering !!

    Just stopped snowing now , cant wait to get back home this afty and have a play in it , lol I dont really see much in the way of a thaw before the big day .... Christmas day with 4 inch of lying snow , couldnt ask for more !

    ** Seasons Greeting to All **

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mickpips

    Leeds covers a very large area , Jed has had snow everyday since last Thursday whereas i havnt... a couple of inch last Thursday , then a fresh cover sunday and now just over an inch tonight .... i would say theres between 2-3 inch lying here at mo , but i was in yeadon today ( Leeds/Bradford Airport ) and there was about 4 inch in places there before tonight. Thats about 8 mile from where i live ... big variations within what is known as Leeds :p)

    Up at 5am for work , should be interesting ... hoping we dont see the 'drizzle' here as mentioned in Normy :p

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mickpips

    Just reached an inch of fresh snow tonight in North East Leeds ... steady snowfall now , Temp at -1.2oC

    I have to question the effect of grit .. The local authority gritted my road 4 times ! before the snow started , yet its white over now ... what a waste , does this stuff actually work ?!?

    LOL @ National forecast on Beeb ... Leading edge of PPN will fall as snow ...... hmmm , only the leading edge ?

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=IWESTYOR8 Not for Garforth but in Leeds, station is 86m ASL.

    And yeah you are in the gap, but the gap is filled up nicely with showers just a bit more time to get there.

    Its snowing here!

    Edit: It was bad luck you got sleet, because when the warm sector was at it's peak was when a shower passed.

    Not snowing here as yet , i am however expecting a few showers through the night , hoping also that this temp drops ... Looks like the 'mildest' ( if you can call it that ) night so far of the last 5 !!

    Location : NE Leeds ( Wetherby Road )

    Current Temp -0.1oC

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    M62 down to one lane in places J26-J24, and closed westbound J24-J22. Quite surprising, may be more to do with ice than snow ?

    I was told an hour ago the M62 is horrendous at the moment , and its due to heavy snow and blizzard like conditions, a work colleague of mine travelled from Manchester Airport to his house in Low Moor ( Bradford ) Pretty dicey at elevation apparently , and VERY windy

    Constant Heavy snow showers here in NE Leeds now ... gaps are shorter than the spells of snow at present !

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    M62 down to one lane in places J26-J24, and closed westbound J24-J22. Quite surprising, may be more to do with ice than snow ?

    I was told an hour ago the M62 is horrendous at the moment , and its due to heavy snow and blizzard like conditions, a work colleague of mine travelled from Manchester Airport to his house in Low Moor ( Bradford ) Pretty dicey at elevation apparently , and VERY windy

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the 18z precip charts for saturday, Scotland/Ireland and Northern England are likely to see a spell of snow.

    Certainly confuses me why people even bother to look at ppn charts ... they are nothing more than a very outside indication of any precip , unless of course they follow any fronts etc

    Looking into the xmas period I still think , as i have always done , taking a middle ground between diverging outputs usually gives you the best clue as to what is likely to happen. The divergence between the models and the eventual breakdown in terms of timescale would lead me to beleive Christmas day itself will likely still be cold enough for snow anywhere north of the midlands .... but time will tell and this weekend will most likely see the various model outputs come to an agreed evolution :)

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