LetItSnow!

That's amazing! When you do eventually publish the findings I will be the first to have a look. That's a big project to take on so props to you for that.

I think the C.E.T. series and the reports of bloody freezing cold winters do support the idea that the Atlantic didn't quite have the ultimate vice like grip on winter like it does today! It's actually interesting looking at the (rather crude) reanalysis charts for the late 19th century and even the early 20th century. I do put some of it down to less precision due to more crude data but weather patterns seemed to be much different than today and not just in the obvious way. The Atlantic would often just come to a halt and blocking to our east could get going a lot easier. Similarly in summer low pressure systems seemed to have a much easier time disrupting highs and it was quite common for lows to divebomb on a NW-SE trajectory and with quite some vigour to. I feel like you don't see that as much nowadays. I'm no scientist but it goes to show that even the tiniest changes in the atmosphere can have a knock on effect to how weather patterns develop. It's not just that the same pattern in 1824 will bring different temperatures, even conditions than 2024 (higher tendency for frost, fog, mild looking ridges that were actually cold and murky that would be bright today) but that the actual patterns seem to just work a little differently. How scientifically put of me Lucky they don't have me write scientific papers or it would be "Telecommunications" written 300 times on one page and nothing else. Such a shame we'll never be able to see the synoptics of the 1690s.

Those mild winds are very moisture laden though so do be careful for hopes of it being sunny!

Makes you wonder what effects the next Super El Niño will have... That's if we don't break the record of 1983, 1997 and 2015. Dread to think the impacts!

Ever so close, ever so slowly. As long as we keep getting this theme within the day 10 frame (day 9 currently) then we could be in for some surprises. Slowly she goes...

A look at the GFS and GEM shows the idea of heights building and potentially setting up Scandinavian heights into early February. Where this month exactly lands is entirely dependent on whether that pressure rise fails to establish or not. I’d say it’s best to calculate your predictions for up to the 25th as it could go anywhere after that. If we don’t see the pressure raise substantially or it ends up too south and we stay at the behest of mild south-westerly winds, more likely to be in 5s - but if we do see temperatures fall close to average in the closing days, perhaps even a touch below average, then perhaps the 4s will be a closer bet. Regardless of what you think, January 2024 will be remembered as a month with great variability. We’ve seen heavy rain, we’re about to see very strong gales and also exceptionally mild temperatures, but we’ve also seen snow in some places and some bitter frosts. January 2024 has seen a bit of it all. Not too dissimilar to January 2003 and it may end up with a similar CET. It’s all down to where we end up come the 27th. I’d caution anyone who’s certain every day of the month after the 20th will be very mild as there could be some surprises afoot. We’ll see.

Yes, I know. That’s why I would expect one of the poor summers that could crop up to have one very poor month and one “modern” poor month that isn’t completely horrendous at least not temperature wise. Sort of like August 2012.

There is a time and place and definitely other sections of the forum it should be focused on to, but I will say I personally don’t agree with anyone who derides his posts too much. What he says is true but some of us are more passionate about it than others. If we take issue with a subject we should be respectful, ignore a user and move on. I don’t agree that 2023 was a repeat of 2007-2012. June aside, I think even in the christmas pudding it can get worse. We were spared by the Atlantic SST anomalies which kept it warmer than it would be normally. I think some time in then rest of the decade we’ll get at least one summer to rival those infamous ones, especially if global temperatures ease back a little and we continue to see Atlantic SSTs moderate. If we can get months like August 2014, August 2017 and May 2021 then it stands to reason that while the odds are stacked against it, we could see a poor summer that persists throughout the whole season. We’ve even seen some local cold records go like June 5th, 2022 and August 5th, 2023 so we still can get a good set up but getting it to stick is tricky. But anyone who thinks it’s impossible I disagree with. The weather is an extremely nuanced thing and it requires a nuanced approach to understand it. And I’m not even a pro!

Did not expect to see that this morning! More of that please. Would really love to see a flip to something more cold favourable in the models around this time. I don’t expect that to happen but at the same time I do have a feeling something is afoot. It would be great if we didn’t have to wait long. Maybe we’ll see a reverse of the normal and see the models finally pick out a rapid shift in the atmosphere. The cold is running out across America so perhaps the Jet will lose its steam soon. All I know is I’m sick of typing the word “telecommunications”. Bring on the flip!!!

Well it was created because we all couldn't stop banging on about summer. I don't think it was created for ponderings about summer 2024 but to just talk about summer in general which is what we've done, though the climate stuff could be a little explosive. I'm not here to debate that stuff, I just point out the obvious. I'm sure mods will move comments to where neccesary.

I have the Heathrow stats for the summer of 1980 and June and July both had an average high of 19.7C, August had 22.1C. The highest temperature of the summer was 29C reached twice, once in June and once in August. July topped out at 28C This day had a high of just 15C, as did the day before. This period had severe thunderstorms, particularly across north-west Kent. Proves that you don't need heat for severe thunderstorms. There were three days in July that only topped out around 15C, two of them consecutive, on the 9th and 10th. From the 4th to the 18th the temperature failed to reach 20C. Conversely, this was the hottest day that reached 28C. Goes to show you how times have changed. We've seen this exact same pattern and reached the mid-thirties and higher. A lot of these synoptics we see sometimes and they produce such different temperaures now. Northeasterlies that once gave 15C days give 18C days. Southerlies that once gave 30C days now give 35C days. Makes me sad but that's just my own opinion. Some may be overjoyed to not be able to reach those depths (seemingly). Months like this, and the pre-1988 UK climate fascinates me. I hear these old stories of London and the UK with the cold, grim weather and it almost plays like a story book. This cold grim place, pre modern architecture, less skyscrapers, more snow - I probably sound like I'm talking about my *** but a lot of weather seems bland nowadays. I think there was a lot of bleak weather then as there was today but there seemed to be variability. If summer was terrible, there appeared to be tons of storms and you'd probably get loads of snow at least once in the winter. Now it's like a perpetual autumn with decent snow every couple of years punctuated by heat spikes of 35-40C! Hope this wasn't too off topic. I mean it is a general chat about summer.

I thought I'd look at the decadal progression of winter temperatures throughout Europe to see how the trends look. The anomalies are based off the most recent decade, so the 1960s are set against the winters of the 1950s, the winters of the 1970s set against the winters of the 1960s etc. 1960s We can see a big reduction in temperature across most of northern and western Europe compared to the winters of the 1950s, though we were less impacted than Scandinavia. Meanwhile into Africa winters got a lot warmer. This is probably because southerly tracking jet streams promoted low pressure and warmer winds from the mid latitutes there. 1970s The trend completely reverses in the 1970s, though this is compared to the cold 1960s so the trend is more pronounced. This isn't surprising as several winters of the 1970s are notoriously mild even by today's standards. 1980s No surprise here than the trend is mostly colder, though interestingly Scotland actually continued to get warmer. This could be from the blocked nature of many of the 1980s winters disproportionately effecting the south. Look at the extensive warming into Russia and Asia. Perhaps the first signs of global warming. 1990s No surprise here, though it appears there was a reduction in temperatures overall into Russia and south-east Europe. This implies that while global temperature increase played a part, I think natural variability also played a part too. Perhaps the winters of the 1990s were always going to be mild, somewhat like the 1970s. The intense warming over Scandinavia is extreme and must have been a shock to them. 2000s Little change for us but around us the warming continued. To our south though it appears winters had a slight decline. This backs up memories of cold spells across the continent that missed us were memorable for countries like France, Spain, Greece etc. 2002, 2005 and 2006 are examples of this I think. 2010s Actually interesting! Now, the winters from 2010 to 2013 are doing quite a bit of heavy lifting here but actually winters tended to get a little colder in the 2010s overall. Bear in mind, this is compared to the 2000s and not the overall 20th century average. There was quite a substantial decrease across Scandinavia and Russia whereas the slight reduction to our south reversed. The next is only preliminary and only encompasses the couple winters this decade so far but as the original thread asked, have our recent winters seen a cooling trend? 2020-2023 No. Bear in mind, this includes the cold winters from 2010 to 2013, but even still, virtually everywhere has seen overall large increases in winter temperature anomalies this decade so far, apart from Iceland. This makes sense as I always notice Iceland having below normal anomalies on Gavin's weather forecasts! Now this trend may moderate, we've got 5 years left of the decade to go and colder winters could once again come in a cluster like in the late 2000s and early 2010s, but so far, winter temperatures have been on the uptick and by a concerning margin especially considering the anomaly is against the 2010-2019 average! I do think this trend will moderate but by how much is unknown. If we continue to see temperatures hover around 1-2C above the global mean then winter may start to fade from memory across parts of Europe. Or a shift in weather patterns or a volcano or scientific experiment gone wrong could see a moderation of the anomaly. Fascinating yet scary, sobering times to be a weather enthusiast.

I wish they were

Just gave my mother a warning about potential dangerous winds on Sunday. She's in the north-west and though it's uncertain, some models showing some pretty gnarly winds on Sunday! Told her to stock up on candles as she lives in an exposed countryside location. Certainly will feel absolutely sweating next week compared to this week!

Peculiarly, I spent some of the summer of 2020 in the south and the north and it seemed to coincide with when both had poor periods. I spent all of June 2020 at home in the south-east. The month began bright but rather chilly with a northerly plunge. I remember the 6th being very windy and cool but bright. Mostly fine weather remained up until the middle of the month though it did eventually become somewhat cloudier and showery by the 12th. There were isolated and severe thunderstorms (one I got caught on foot in!) around the middle of the month, I wanna say about the 16th. It was more humid around this time but it wasn't especially hot. The hottest weather of the summer that I experienced was in late June when we got into the low-thirties. It was very sunny and there was virtually no thundery breakdown that I can recall. Cool weather resumed by the end of the month. July 4th until mid-August I had to spend some time in the north-west of England for personal reasons. I remember the opening days of July were bright but showery and there was some intensely dark thunder clouds on the 2nd. The day I arrived in Carlisle was very cold and grey. Most of July followed suit. July 2020 was probably the first true poor summer month in my adult life I'd ever experienced as in the south-east, even in months like July 2012 and July 2015 you get spared by the location. There was virtually no sunshine all month and the temperature constantly seemed hoverered in the mid teens Celsius, rarely much above. I don't remember any great deluges but just lots of light to moderate rain and a very misty, murky feel. The 6th was a day of sunshine and blustery showers and the temperature fell into the low teens Celsius at points in the afternoon and I remember it feeling Artic and having warmer days in the winter just gone down south! Carlisle did see a glimpse of the heat spike on the 31st, the day itself being a strange one as it was very blustery yet very humid. The air smelled like the ocean. It was weird having the air be so hot and humid yet so windy. It got to about 30C there on that day so I'm not sure where that stands in the local records but it's probably impressive. The heat was literally gone the next day. The first-half of August I spent there was mixed but quite decent for the average summer weather. Early August was quite mixed and cold with temperatures back into the mid to upper teens and the 5th I remember being a very cool and wet day. The hot air never made it to the north of England but high pressure did turn it warmer and drier. While the south baked in the mid-thirties it was rather humid but fine weather here with it in the mid-twenties. There were some thunderstorms in the area that didn't directly hit but I remember seeing lightning in the sky. Mid-August I returned home, just as the heatwave was ending. The 14th was a horrendous day driving down with torrential rain. The second-half of August 2020 back home honestly felt like a warmer version of July up north. It rained almost every day with some intense showers and rain bands but oddly I don't remember thunder. I remember an exceptionally cool end to the month. The night of the 28th felt like November with some cold temperatures, blustery misty rain and a spooky feel. It did brighten up in the closing days and I remember the 31st being a nice evening but cool. Had I experienced the heatwaves I think I'd have a far different perception of the summer of 2020 but I had a unique perspective of all the poor parts of the summer. I also had some personal bad times so when I think of the summer of 2020 I think of cloud, rain and misery - and that's from someone who likes cloud and rain! It's interesting compared to the summer of 2021 which was cloudy, (relatively) cool and very dull in the south-east yet at no point felt quite as grim as 2020 did. Goes to show you how your life circumstances impact your perspective. I actually enjoyed the summer of 2021 for being cool, green and lacking heat spikes!

Quite an interesting sequence as the USA has seen exceptionally cold spells in January in years ending in 4 for quite a while now. January 1994, January 2004, January 2014 and now January 2024 have all been either extremely cold or seen extremely cold spells. May be a reason for the run of Atlantic dominated ones here in the same years that someone posted a while back.

The latest day ten and the signal for heights pushing up from the south returns stronger. This will at least turn temperatures a little closer to normal hopefully. This is a little different than the previous run I think which had more influence from the Atlantic. It goes to show the danger of this set up. If it goes wrong it could set up a February like 1998 or 2019… conversely it could be the groundwork for something colder. Models will continue to toy with both options for some days yet so stressing over exact’s isn’t recommended by me. This is probably more what we want to see. Also something interesting about next week is that the minima aren’t forecasted to be exceptionally high on either the raw model data or apps. I’m not sure if they’re being undercooked or whether it’s well-timed fronts but it could mean daily mean records could be a little harder to achieve, though it will overall still be very mild. Also, speaking of minima, by day ten we are actually managing a frost in places with the raw data. This chart for the 28th is interesting. You can see that it’s really trying. If we can get a raise of pressure pumping some WAA into the Artic then things could align more favourable. I’d like to see more charts like this.

The guess was not actually mine and was Roger’s who is a respected poster and quite good with his predictions. I anticipate low 5s but upper 4s into the 5s a safe bet because it would take something remarkable to get into the 6s, which I suppose could happen if the build of pressure fails and we remained under blow torch south-westerlies for the rest of the month. I’m sure someone can make a calculation of what would be required to reach 6.0C. Conversely, if heights do build and we manage a colder / more average end it could stall, hence why I think upper 4s to low 5s could be a good bet, but also a fair chance of higher. I am very aware of the nature of forecasting being tricky. A lot of us thought February 2021 could have been sub zero around the 8th of that month but then things flipped, not unlike now with record cold over America shunting the pattern into unfavourable conditions for cold, squeezing the heights down into Europe and up come the south-westerlies. Nonetheless, Interesting times! I wonder what February will bring. Could still be in the game for a pattern reset come end of the month.

GFS once again showing a nasty windstorm for Sunday. It’s slightly less intense and a little more south with the strongest of the winds compared to this time yesterday but still packs a punch. These are moisture laden southwesterly winds so there will be plenty of rain. Sunday indeed looks to be a day to stay at home if you can with very strong winds and torrential rain. Not the most welcomed after such a long, wet period. “At least it will be mild” with temperatures in the 8-12C range. The GFS 0z shows an imbedded low on Monday the 22nd so further heavy rain likely. We import less mild uppers and while the raw data is suggest 2-3C maxes for some reason, I imagine more around around the 7-10C region and a bit higher in the extreme south. Weather enthusiasts of a cold persuasion may want to look away at the 23rd. A positively balmy flow of exceptionally mild southwesterly winds. More heavy rain will be associated with this, time time more in the northwest. Temperatures look exceptionally mild. Raw data shows 13-14C in multiple spots but I wouldn’t be surprised if 15-16C was reached, couldn’t even rule out 17C. However, by the 25th the idea is toyed with yet again for a raise of pressure from the south which will introduce settled and more normal temperatures, particularly if the ridge builds high enough for clear nights. There is the suggestion that the mild weather, at least for the south, may not last too long. Now exactly what the high does afterawards on this run isn’t of too much importance in terms of exacts, though it does show the signal yet again for height rises over Scandinavia. This is important as there does seem to be a signal that this could be our next chase. There’s no guarantee of this happening and not every model agrees but with telecommunications favourable I do think it is a possibility that this could just be an unfortunate spell egged on by an intensification of the Atlantic flow due to extreme, record breaking cold in America, and that the building blocks could be in place for a cold set up to return and this could be how we get there. Not anything Id like to make a bet on, but there *is* a signal even if it’s not unanimous… yet! Hope this was informative as I’m still a novice forecaster! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5016171

GFS once again showing a nasty windstorm for Sunday. It’s slightly less intense and a little more south with the strongest of the winds compared to this time yesterday but still packs a punch. These are moisture laden southwesterly winds so there will be plenty of rain. Sunday indeed looks to be a day to stay at home if you can with very strong winds and torrential rain. Not the most welcomed after such a long, wet period. “At least it will be mild” with temperatures in the 8-12C range. The GFS 0z shows an imbedded low on Monday the 22nd so further heavy rain likely. We import less mild uppers and while the raw data is suggest 2-3C maxes for some reason, I imagine more around around the 7-10C region and a bit higher in the extreme south. Weather enthusiasts of a cold persuasion may want to look away at the 23rd. A positively balmy flow of exceptionally mild southwesterly winds. More heavy rain will be associated with this, time time more in the northwest. Temperatures look exceptionally mild. Raw data shows 13-14C in multiple spots but I wouldn’t be surprised if 15-16C was reached, couldn’t even rule out 17C. However, by the 25th the idea is toyed with yet again for a raise of pressure from the south which will introduce settled and more normal temperatures, particularly if the ridge builds high enough for clear nights. There is the suggestion that the mild weather, at least for the south, may not last too long. Now exactly what the high does afterawards on this run isn’t of too much importance in terms of exacts, though it does show the signal yet again for height rises over Scandinavia. This is important as there does seem to be a signal that this could be our next chase. There’s no guarantee of this happening and not every model agrees but with telecommunications favourable I do think it is a possibility that this could just be an unfortunate spell egged on by an intensification of the Atlantic flow due to extreme, record breaking cold in America, and that the building blocks could be in place for a cold set up to return and this could be how we get there. Not anything Id like to make a bet on, but there *is* a signal even if it’s not unanimous… yet! Hope this was informative as I’m still a novice forecaster!

Upper 4s, low 5s a safe bet at this time.

I'm not sold of an above 6 finish at all, that would require something ridiculous. 4.6 to 5.2 could be a good landing zone but it remains to be seen. Hope the colder end being sniffed out is correct!

Quite close to the traditional Chinese celebrations which usually are late January to mid February. I feel like I am slightly noticing a bit of extra light in the evenings now. Really looking forward to that extra boost of light come March!

I've asked AI to predict the rest of the year and this is what it gave me. I smoothed out some of the unrealistic parts and this is what it says for 2024. Bear in mind it got 2022's forecast more correct than any of us February: Near normal temperatures but sunny and dry away from the far north,. Mild start then a notable cold spell from the N/NE around the 7th which is implied to be severe due to the effect on the month's mean. Widespread lows between -5C and -10C. The cold spell ends and turns mild and even exceptionally mild with 17C in parts on the 18th but then the rest of the month sees temperatures return close to normal. Gener March: A cold and rather stormy first-half but milder in the final two weeks. Wet, particularly in the south, but overall sunny. Another cold spell, this time an Artic blast, sends polar winds southward on the 4th though the AI specifies it's not overly snowy and mostly dry but with some very cold minima. Then a cold, zonal pattern with some stormy conditions around mid-month. High pressure and a southerly airflow provide the warmest day of the month on the 24th with 18-19C recorded across the south of England. Implies cloudier and rainer conditions further north overtop the high. April: Warm and sunny. A cool start with local frost on the 1st but turning warmer. Very warm mid-month with high pressure dominating the weather and temperatures into the low to mid-20s but cool by night. Unsettled weather early and late means that rainfall was close to normal though and rather wet in the north. Sunshine generally rather above normal. May: Warm and sunny. Some changeable and cool weather early on but quickly turning warm and ending hot with temperatures into the upper 20s. Generally dry though parts of Scotland were rather wet. A calm month with little in the way of wind. Thunder was limited but the hot spell at month's end did provide some thunderstorms in the south. June: Warm, fairly dry and very sunny. Once again, changeable early on though with temperatures near-normal, then turning dry in the second half with most days being sunny. Hot towards month end with temperatures into the low 30s. A calm month and with a notable absence of thunder. July: The hottest, driest and sunniest July on record with an intense spell of hot weather in the second half. A warm start with high pressure tending to centre over and to our west with warm days and comfortable nights but shifting to a hotter position into week two. On the 15th began a two week spell where the temperature reached 32C somewhere in the UK, culminating in the upper 30s being reached on the 25th. This was a dry heat that built on several weeks instead of a heat spike. There was very little in the way of wind or thunder though eastern coastal regions suffered with low cloud and fog at times and it wasn't as hot there. Rainless across parts of southern and eastern England. August: Rather warm but changeable at times. A breakdown of July's heat gave some changeable but humid weather early on and gave some much needed rainfall. There was another heatwave around mid-August but nowhere near the length and intensity and gave temperatures into the upper 20s/low 30s. Changeable again until the rest of the month but with no great windstorms or deluges and parts of southern England had another dry month, though not to the extent of July. September: Rather cool, dull and changeable; wet in the north but rather slightly on the dry side in the south. The summer doesn't continue. A couple autumnal gales thrown in for good measure. October: Cold and rather dry but changeable. November: Near normal temperatures but very dull and quite wet. December: Cold, very dry and very dull but hinted at a snowy episode around Christmas. Very anticyclonic. Overall, what do I think of a year like that? Actually, I think it would be quite good! The summer is long with frequent spells of sunny weather and very few cool spells but doesn't linger into the autumn and a seasonably cold December follows too. It isn't too dissimilar a year to 2003 which concentrated its warmth in the spring and summer whilst the other months of the year were relatively cooler. The July spell sounds similar to August 2003 too except longer. Would you take a year like this? Funnily enough with the 2003 comparisons the January we're having at the moment isn't too dissimilar, cold and exceptional mild contrasting eachother.

Unfortunately, regardless of the preference, when you have members who gloat over certain weather types and others who invest too much emotion in the models it's just bound to happen. It's all very silly! I think a lot of us are unusual in our brains with our dedicated love for the weather and you can see that in the member output on this site. It's important not to take our hobby too seriously. I like cold weather not just because it's magical but also it feels nice in a warming world. However, I also like grey, drizzly weather as I find it relaxing so while I bemoan another mild winter month, I can actually enjoy it for what it is. Just like you or another mild ramper said they were happy it was sunny even though it was cold. There's always gonna be risks and dangers with certain weather types and as I stated earlier, it's no point ridiculing (not you or anyone specific) someone's taste. If it's hot, good for the people who like it hot! If it's cool, good for the people who like it cool and so forth. As long as we're not all underwater, parched, no produce is able to be grown and we're up Schitt's Creek, then what does it all matter anyway. My take on what it means to be a weather enthusiast. I like to try and be a voice of reason on here. Probably fail.