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garylaverick
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Everything posted by garylaverick
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GEM probably the most optimistic for our region. I think being in a "sticky out" bit will be beneficial i.e. Whitby, Bamburgh, Seahouses, Aberdeen.
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I've been stowed off with work this morning so haven't had a chance to check the progress of our low but I've seen the new warning and the forecast above so I'm assuming it's still coming further west. It would be some event if it came off. Hopefully get a chance to check the charts this evening.
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@P-M apparently this is lurking somewhere in Washington.
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Those are associated with this north sea low we've been talking about.
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There must be an outside chance just due to the fact its moved west on each of the last 4 runs. It's westward progression seems to be determined by timing and how much inroads the Atlantic low can make. I don't want to raise anyone's hopes but I feel its worth keeping an eye on in the absence of anything else noteworthy, it's a fine balancing act and could go either way.
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It moves west with every run, praying for a miracle.
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Funnel effect when the wind comes from the right direction, you can see the bottleneck between Dover and Calais. The pressure is also lower down there as they're further from the centre of the high so more instability.
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It depends where you measure, about 4" where it's blown into a certain area, probably 2" on average. Nothing to write home about but better than nothing.
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You can see the system coming down and killing off our convection now.
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Really good video from the Met Office.
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I've just driven home from work, Washington to Felling. I think Gateshead Council have ran out of grit, the roads are atrocious. Some great cloudscapes on the go if you can get a clear view of the coast.
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That low I mentioned earlier that's dipping in to the North Sea and back out again...it gets even closer on the GFS 12z.
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Next time an Easterly is on the cards we're all going to think back to 2021 with dread!
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I think to sum up this cold spell in one word I would chose frustrating. We've had all the right pieces at all the wrong times and it just never hooked up to the extent it could have for us. Don't get me wrong I'd take this over mild drab any day but I'm afraid to say my craving for a proper snow event remains unfulfilled at present. Saying all that, I'll be straight back at the smallest hint of new potential!
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Signs of the system that's due to dip in to the North Sea tomorrow appearing on the latest sat image, this is what will cut off our NE'ly feed. It'll be worth keeping an eye on the track of this system as even though it's not forecast to make landfall that could change depending on the progress of the Atlantic low which are famously difficult to predict in situations where there's embedded cold.
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I'd been following that on satellite, some bright cloud tops behind though.
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I think there's a chance of increased activity as the sun goes down but things will fizzle out by about 8pm as our north easterly feed is cut off.
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There's a system dipping in to the north sea from the north and then doing a u turn and going back out of the north which is why it's all over! I'm keeping my eye on it as it wouldn't take much of a course change to give the whole east coast a massive dumping. Sadly it's currently being modelled to stay out at sea.
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Best snow of the day here despite radar showing nothing!
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WRF's idea of now. WRF's idea of 5pm.
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Certainly, it's been a close but no cigar setup that would have only taken a few minor tweaks to deliver the goods. The crux of the issue for me is that the air came from eastern Europe instead of the arctic so was inherently more stable, but isn't it the fact that it doesn't always come off that keeps us coming back for more?
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There's been plenty of convergence lines on the FAX charts but I haven't seen any troughs on them through this spell.
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