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I'm guessing then that the jet stream isn't in the 'right' place for next weekend?

Chris Fawkes in his televised forecast today says that despite the high pressure building, we won't be seeing the heat of recent weeks. So aside from the high pressure, what setup is required to bring in heat from the continent at this time of year?

*post deleted and transferred to new thread*

Someone in another thread (think the post was deleted as it was off-topic) said a BBC weatherman said summer's over because the UK will be the target of north-westerlies for the rest of the month. Seems a bit odd for a meterologist to make that claim, especially as there's still over 3 weeks of summer left and the models are hinting at a possible warming up later on. Plus of course September can bring real summer weather (although I appreciate that September is meteorologically no longer summer.)

Is this due to the aftermath of Bertha or is it unrelated?

It feels this summer's had much more warmth and sunshine overall than 2013 in my neck of the woods. I've recorded 18 days of >25C so far, with only 4 days in July having a max of <20C and 0 days so far this month! I installed my weather station last September so can't compare statistically; however I seem to remember July 2013 having more cool days than this year, but wasn't the 2013 heatwave more intensive? I'm sure there were more days in the high 20s/low 30s than this summer. As I've posted elsewhere, I'm still hoping for another day of temps in the high 20s/low 30s this summer so I can record the first 30 on my station - having 'only' managed 28.9 so far.

I'm a relative newbie when it comes to models... what does 'FI' mean? I've come up with a few possibilities but none of them work in context!

What happened to the model run that indicated hot weather in about 10 days? Was that just a random one that should be ignored for now?

What happened to the model run that showed hot weather coming in about 10 days' time? Is that well and truly off the cards for now?

Aside from the Express drivel, the only reference I've seen to any heat on the horizon was some of the models which were/are hinting at some warmth after Bertha has been dealt with. I think it's getting late in the day for any prolonged hot spells for the remainder of the summer, but there's surely the chance of a few more very hot days? Even September sometimes has them. Hopefully the models will reveal more post-Bertha.

I'm still hoping for a couple more 30C days in my neck of the woods before summer's out. I prefer periods of temps in the low/mid 20s with just one or two scorchers. It's more interesting (and comfortable) than long periods of mid/high 20s.

This isn't looking good for those who were hoping this August would break the trend of recent Augusts and be decent. Still there's a lot left of the month and the models could easily change as time goes on. I'm still hoping for just one day of 30C for meteorological interest

Interesting replies My sensor's about 1.5m above the ground, 2m away from the trunk of a fairly large Hawthorn tree and 1m from the trunk of a small plum tree. Air flows quite freely around the sensor. Most of the tree vegetation starts a few metres off the ground though - what actually provides shade for my sensor is some ivy that's grown on the trees.

Thanks for the interesting reply! Do you know over what area a tree can have an effect, or is the effect only experienced underneath the tree? Also what sort of effect in degrees terms can trees have on the temperature?

I've just spotted a pattern which has emerged. It seems my station is a little cooler than the official Chelmsford one when there are northerly winds. It's more in synch with the official one in southerly winds. Could it be that southerly winds bring me some warmth from the city area of Chelmsford (which is several miles south of me)? There's no urban area to the north of me for around 10 miles which may explain my cooler temps (compared to official station) in northerly winds.

How often does the temperature reach 30C or more in August, specifically in the south-east? Obviously 2003 (and 2006/13?) are examples but are these exceptions to the rule? I'd have thought August would being the potential for some very hot days due to the effect of heat from the sea.

Is there a Met Office guide on what is required for official stations? I had a quick look online but couldn't find anything. Would be interesting to see how standardised the official stations actually are.

How often is 30C reached/exceeded in August, specifically in the south-east? I think it happened last year and apparently it also happened in September too. Obviously 2003 is the extreme example (and maybe 2006 too?). The official Met Office station generally reaches a few degrees higher than where I am, so I only managed 28.9 recently when the official station reached 32. I'd love to see a 30 in my dear old back garden before this summer is out.

Official stations have thermometers in a Stevenson's screen placed in an exposed area - that means it'll be in direct sunlight, but the screen is supposed to provide shade. I'd have thought heat could build up in the screen though despite the slats for ventilation, but it has to be done like this to ensure readings across the country are comparable. Shielding that comes with amateur/semi-pro weather stations is seemingly supposed to be designed for use in an exposed area, but my experience is the shielding isn't adequate enough to protect the sensors from direct sunlight. I don't have a Stevenson's screen and don't have enough of an exposed area to warrant one. I therefore prefer shade created by a tree to protect my sensor from direct sunlight. I also have a small 'box' made of white foamboard, with holes and gaps in to allow for ventilation, which I placed over the sensor (instead of using the manufacturer's shield which seemed too enclosed). Shade created by a tree isn't ideal because of the cooling effect of vegetation - but if your garden has a lot of vegetation (like mine) then you can't do much about it anyway. It's also preferable to using the shade of buildings which can have fairly significant effects on temperature readings depending on how much heat they're giving off. So at least having some shade means readings can be comparable to official readings to a certain extent. This wouldn't be the case if you placed a thermometer in direct sunlight where the sun could increase readings by 10 - 15C or more.

It's interesting how a relatively small change in location can have such an impact on the weather. Where is the best place for a thermometer sensor in a normal-sized garden? Shade near buildings is inaccurate, plus more exposed areas seem to be inaccurate and have spikes due to the sun (even with a screen/cover over the sensor). I've always gone for shade produced by a tree - with reasonable airflow in the area - to avoid the effect of direct sunlight! I think that's true shade but maybe that's 'too much' shade?!

I'd wondered if station accuracy was an issue, but the fact my station (a Fine Offset WH1080) is consistently cooler than Writtle during the day but warmer at night suggests accuracy isn't playing a big part. Plus I've tried other thermometers in various parts of my garden and they agree with my station. I guess it's local factors which are at play - I find it interesting that quite a small distance (6 miles) can result in a smaller range of temperatures.

I'd say my location is fairly sheltered as it's surrounded by trees and fairly close to my house. I imagine Met Office stations are in fairly exposed locations to ensure minimal influence from trees and buildings. Wouldn't more exposed stations record higher temperatures though, due to greater wind movement? Does a Stevenson's screen have to be in the shade or is the screen itself considered to be enough protection from the sun?

I'm about the same distance from the sea as Writtle, so I don't think it can be that. Good point though!

I live 6 miles north of the official Writtle Met Office station. I have a weather station in my garden which is in the shade next to some trees. Where I live is slightly more rural than Writtle. Normally my daytime temps are 2 or 3 degrees lower than the Writtle station but my nighttime temps are slightly higher than Writtle. Is there a meteorological reason for that? Unofficial stations nearer Writtle tend to agree with the official one. I tried reading temps in different parts of my garden and they're similar, so my weather station position doesn't seem to a factor. There are quite a few trees in and around my garden though, plus I'm in a very slight valley compared to Writtle. Could these things have an effect?

I see a lot of model output images posted on the forum but I'm unsure where they've been taken from. So, where's the best place to view them? Is there anywhere that 'combines' the various outputs? I'm particularly interested in the temperature models and I know I've seen graphs lurking somewhere that show the various models plotted with an average. I have my own weather station running on a Raspberry Pi and uploading data to the internet (see http://www.henryandjoey.co.uk/weewx) but I'm a newbie when it comes to model outputs! Thanks