h2005__uk__

Late October is a milestone because the clocks go back and the sunset is then before 5pm - it then really feels like winter's on the way. Once the sunsets get back to where they were just before the clocks go back - i.e. beginning of March - then it feels like spring's on the way. Most people aren't going to start looking for winter at the end of August when it's still getting dark at 8pm.

Clocks go forward in five weeks. Five weeks ago the date was 18th Jan - seems weird to think that in another five it'll be getting dark at 7:30pm.

A lot of warm, Spring-like sunshine in Essex today. The occasional cool wind, along with the rapidly-dropping temperature as it got past 4pm, was a reminder that it's still winter! Worth mentioning that tonight I've recorded the highest ever air pressure (since my records began Sept 2013) - 1042.5mb and still rising.

I was just looking at the temperatures I recorded (in Chelmsford) last Spring. The first ≥15C temperature of 2014 was 18.5C on 9th March. It wasn't until 21 April this was beaten (18.8C), with the 19C barrier broken on 6 May (19.2C) and the 20C barrier broken on 16 May (21.8 C). March was generally quite mild with maximums in the low teens but there was a cold snap in the final week; April was also fairly mild with most maximums in the low-to-mid teens; and May was again mild with maximums in the mid-teens with a warmer period in the middle. The average daily maximums of last Spring ended up being greater than the 1981 - 2010 average; March by +1.8C, April by +1.5C and May by +0.1C. It's a nice thought that we're now only two or three weeks away from when temperatures can at least be in the mid-to-high teens. Although of course winter can have a sting in its tail, as it did in March 2013 (and in the final week of March 2014 to a lesser extent).

Yes, I was surprised at their tweet considering the posts on here about the lack of snow tonight!

Essex Weather Centre tweeted this earlier this evening: Heavy snow showers will affect many Southern and Eastern districts of Essex this evening. Locally 1-2CM and risk of ice.

There was a very mild spell in Feb 2012 where many places saw temps in the high teens, plus Mar 2012 was generally mild. Mar 2013 also got off to a warm start... before it turned very cold... and there was a cold snap during Mar 2014. Spring is full of intrigue and it's just round the corner.

I installed my weather station in Sept 2013 and this afternoon I've recorded the lowest air pressure yet - 977.3mb! It didn't even get that low during the storms we had last winter...

Currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -4.2C according to my weather station - good for snow? Don't think any precip is forecast for tonight though.

Essex Weather centre has just posted this on Twitter: "Temperatures on the mild side early next week, up to 10C before turning colder on Thursday. Snow likely to return early February." https://twitter.com/EssexWeather/status/559425516697305089

The best we've had in Essex so far is a couple of brief snow showers which fell on Saturday and today, but not enough for it to properly settle. I suppose that's better than last winter where I don't think any of Essex saw any snow at all! March 2013 was the last time snow properly settled here... so if it doesn't happen this winter, the wait will have increased to nearly 3 years by next winter!

I've got a bit lost in the model thread over the last few days! Am I right in saying that the basic outlook at the moment is that the cold snap will be ending (for now) towards the end of the coming week, and in the meantime there won't be much snow (if any) for the south-east?

I've got a bit lost in the model thread over the last few days! Am I right in saying that the basic outlook at the moment is that the cold snap will be ending (for now) towards the end of next week, and in the meantime there won't be much snow (if any) for the south-east?

I've always thought 1st Feb is a turning point - it's the first time since autumn when it's just about still daylight at 5pm (in the south-east at least).

I've had a look at the forecast gusts for Weds night in Chelmsford, Essex on a few sites and models: MetOffice - 53 WeatherPro app - 44 Metcheck - 61 WeatherOnline - 44 AccuWeather - 58 GFS (18z) - 60 to 64 NetWx-SR (12z) - 56 to 60 Of course it's not an exact science and things locally could be very different. What sort of wind gusts were being forecast for the south-east for St Jude (28/10/13) and the storm on 23/12/13? (Sorry for the IMBYism but it's interesting to compare the forecast gusts regardless of location!)

Yes, the St Jude storm was vicious in the south-east but only for about an hour. It was enough to cause a lot of trouble but that was mostly due to trees still being in leaf. The storm on 23/12/13 was more notable in terms of wind because it lasted longer but there was less tree-based trouble. I wasn't following the models at the time of those storms. How does the coming storm compare to the St Jude and 23/12/13 storms based on the models?

Agreed. It'd be more useful (and meteorologically interesting) to focus on that for now.

Temp here currently 14.8C. Considering it's now 3.5 hours after sunset, it's the equivalent of being 1am in mid-June. It'd be a mild night even for summer!

Well it's 5th Jan 2015... and where's the SNOW?!! Those charts are still showing on his page!!

When I was at school (I'm 27 so we're talking before 2006) most snow seemed to fall in late winter. And of course in more recent years I recall most snow falling in the latter half of winter too - this definitely applies to the Jan - Mar of every year between 2007 and 2013, with the exception of 2011 where most snow fell in Dec 2010.

Any chance of 30C temps in the near future? :wink:

Post any weather records (i.e. the highs and lows!) from 2014 from your own weather station and/or surrounding area. My station's been active since Sept 2013 and this is what I've got for 2014. (I don't think any of these will be broken tomorrow!) High Temperature: 28.9°C at 18-Jul-2014 16:40 --- Unfortunately I was in one of the 'pockets' that didn't hit 30 on that day! Low Temperature: -4.2°C at 30-Dec-2014 07:20 --- Lowest I've ever recorded; last winter didn't get below -2.6 High Barometer: 1043.2 mbar at 29-Dec-2014 20:16 --- Highest I've ever recorded Low Barometer: 978.0 mbar at 14-Feb-2014 22:18 Rain Total: 604.8 mm High Rain Rate: 162.0 mm/hr at 19-Sep-2014 04:24 --- During quite a ferocious storm High Wind Speed: 40 mph from 225° at 14-Feb-2014 21:02

There are usually a few more storms in autumn to liven things up a little (meteorologically speaking) though.

I follow the model discussion thread up to a point, so forgive me if I've missed something, but doesn't the sign of any cold weather keep remaining in 'FI'? It feels like there's not really much going on in terms of the weather in the short-term - just mostly unsettled with average/slightly above average temps.

Agree with you there. There seems to be little objectivity at times. Take the summer for example - if someone posted a chart that showed hot weather on the way, numerous others would say "it's only one model, it can't be counted". Yet now there's one model showing cold weather on the way, people who say "it's only one model" are being shouted down.