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Won't this have an impact on the temperatures tomorrow as well? There's a stronger SE wind forecast so I'm not sure about the 32C predicted for much of Essex. Having said that, 'only' 27C was forecast today so the forecast was accurate.

Maybe a (very) slight downgrade on temperatures on the 00z GFS.... but GFS forecast maxes of around 28C in the south-east for 18 July 2014, when many places ended up reaching 30 - 32C. So maybe the GFS is again undercooking this week slightly?

Maybe I'm being dim, but on the ECM, why are the temps on the "temperature (low)" chart higher than the "temperature (high)" chart? I assumed "high" meant the max in that period?

I wonder what model they're basing that on? Only NAVGEM is being that bullish at the moment.

I thought it was a good explanation of how humidity affects the body.

I won't post all the figures this time as they're broadly similar, with the exception that Metcheck has woken up and is now going for some hotter temps. The BBC is continuing to downplay things - max of 27/28C on Wed & Sat when others are showing >31C. Why does the BBC so often undercook temps?!

I see NAVGEM is still keen on temps in the mid-30s in the south. Is it known for overcooking things? Or is the GFS known for undercooking things?

What's the link to the 2m temps it's modelling?

Does ECM show 2m temps or just 850s?

If you don't have the benefit of air con, what do you do to keep cool indoors in hot weather? Fans help but only if they're blowing on your skin, as they help to bring your body temp down by blowing cooler air onto it (assuming the temp of the room is cooler than your body temp, which it probably will be, in the UK at least). Fans also assist with sweat evaporation. Ideal thing is a bowl of ice or a bottle of ice in front of a fan as it blows cooler air from the ice. Of course that'll melt quickly though! Another good tip is to run the outside and inside of your wrists under cold water every so often.

Already 23C at Writtle - I suspect that, as with yesterday, the actual temperature may exceed the forecast one by some margin. Imagine if that happened next week too!

Indeed. I'll post updates for my location and see how things change for the better/worse between now and next week.

I've set up a thread which tracks the forecast temps for next week (using websites and apps rather than models) - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83437-forecasts-for-next-weeks-heatwave/

I mentioned in the MO thread how the WeatherPro app keeps upgrading the temperatures in London for next week. I thought it'd be good to keep a track of how accurately the various websites forecast the temperatures for next week's heatwave. After all, the layman will be looking at these sites more than the model outputs! I'll post another update tonight. Chelmsford Metcheck - Wed 29C; Thu 27C; Fri 29C; Sat 27C WeatherPro - Wed 30C; Thu 33C; Fri 32C; Sat 31C BBC - Wed 28C; Thu 29C; Fri 27C; Sat 27C Weatheronline - Wed 30C; Thu 32C; Fri 32C; Sat 31C Google (weather.com) - Wed 30C; Thu 31C; Fri 32C; Sat 31C And I may as well do the capital city too... London Metcheck - Wed 30C; Thu 26C; Fri 27C; Sat 26C WeatherPro - Wed 32C; Thu 33C; Fri 33C; Sat 31C BBC - Wed 33C; Thu 32C; Fri 30C; Sat 30C Weatheronline - Wed 31C; Thu 32C; Fri 32C; Sat 31C Google (weather.com) - Wed 34C; Thu 31C; Fri 32C; Sat 31C

WeatherPro now saying Wed 32C, Thu 33C, Fri 33C, Sat 31C. I know that's just London, but the point is the temps keep getting upgraded. Maybe I shouldn't post this here but it's a model output of sorts and WeatherPro is normally far more accurate than the likes of the MetO/BBC, etc!

Earlier this evening, WeatherPro was going for Wed 32C, Thu 32C, Fri 30C, Sat 27C in London..... it now says Wed 32C, Thu 33C, Fri 32C, Sat 31C. What model does that use? It can't be based on the GFS judging by the 18z.

I'm also in Chelmsford and I've recorded 9.3mm of rain so far this month - just 19% of the average June total of 50mm here. Looking on course to be the driest month since my records began (Sep 2013)!

Where's the website where you can look at tables of the temperatures being predicted by the different ensembles? I'm sure I had the page bookmarked but its gone!

Looks like we could be getting the answer to this fairly shortly.

WeatherPro forecast 23C for Chelmsford today so 27C is a very good result! Not sure what model WeatherPro uses or if it's a combination of models?

As we get ever closer to next week, it seems the models are in agreement of a plume of some sorts with temps widely in the high 20s and 30C+ in the south-east. I was expecting any serious downgrades to have happened by now, so I'm quietly confident that we should see at least 30C hit - probably in the south-east - sometime next week. If not on Tuesday/Wednesday - as originally forecast - then later in the week.

It seems like a brief hot spell is definitely on the cards at the turn of the month - just a matter of exactly how hot things will get. The GFS 0z run had the SE down for about 31/32C on 1st July, but this has been downgraded to the mid-20s on the 6z run. Still all to play for I suppose!

Andrewsfield is the nearest MetO station to me with freely available archived max/min data. It's a fairly good one to look at for the south-east though because it's not a 'hotspot' like Gravesend or Writtle sometimes are. These are the maximums for summers since 2000. I note that 2012 achieved a >30C temp despite being a poor summer overall, but 2014 didn't achieve it despite being a good summer. Of course 2007 was bad and didn't get >30C. 2014: 29.6C 2013: 31.1C 2012: 30.8C 2011: 31.3C 2010: 30.1C 2009: 29.1C 2008: 27.8C 2007: 28.0C 2006: 31.2C 2005: 29.7C 2004: 28.9C 2003: 35.9C 2002: 30.0C 2001: 30.2C 2000: 27.6C So if 2012 can reach 30.8C then it gives some hope for this summer reaching 30C at least once, somewhere, even if it's an average summer overall.

This is a bit of tomfoolery to follow on from the similar topic for the first 20C! We're only two weeks into the meteorological summer, but indications are that the first 30C won't happen in the next two weeks. The warmest day of the year so far was yesterday - 26.8C at Kew. I'll go with 5 July at Gravesend - smashing in at 31.2C.

WeatherPro's my favourite weather app but they tend to under-cook temps even within the reliable timeframe. They were going for low 20s next weekend for my location (Chelmsford), then suddenly it shot up to 27C and now it's been climbing down again. Latest forecast is now only 22C for Friday!