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h2005__uk__

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Everything posted by h2005__uk__

  1. h2005__uk__
    Exactly. There are sometimes a few people who post their feelings as 'facts' with little evidence to back them up.
  2. h2005__uk__
    The Daily Express have jinxed everything so an elongated autumn is probably on the cards, starting August 1st.
  3. h2005__uk__
    Their forecast is generally in line with what Gavin Partridge is forecasting (and also the Daily Express for what it's worth).
  4. h2005__uk__
    The models are particularly uninspiring for the foreseeable. Can anyone remember - how far in advance did the models predict last week's heat? Just wondering about their performance.
  5. h2005__uk__
    I know what you mean. Last week's 'heatwave' was a bit frustrating here in Essex - it reached around 31C by lunchtime, then a band of cloud passed over which caused temps to fall to the mid-high 20s. The cloud didn't properly clear until late afternoon by which time the temperatures couldn't really recover. Just 50 miles to the west, the cloud was sparser and didn't affect the heat so much.
  6. h2005__uk__
    "Thought it's possible I don't think" to be precise. I was just wondering if anything had generated that thought apart from the fact that the UK doesn't see that type of weather all the time.
  7. h2005__uk__
    Yes, but I just think it's a bit odd to write something off based on that.
  8. h2005__uk__
    It seems similar to declaring on 5th January that there won't be any more heavy snowfall (if there'd already been some), even though Europe is still very cold and there are signs that February could be a cold month.
  9. h2005__uk__
    What makes you think that?
  10. h2005__uk__
    The bad Augusts must surely be statistically unusual because early August (at least) is supposed to be the warmest part of the year.
  11. h2005__uk__
    Has anyone seen Gavin Partridge's recent videos? He seems to think the middle of July will be average but improving toward the end of the month. He reckons at the moment that August could be shaping up to be a pretty summery month. About time too if that happened - when was the last properly summery August?!
  12. h2005__uk__
    Judging from the current models, is there a chance that next weekend's plume could become a bit more notable?
  13. h2005__uk__
    Thanks. I suppose any home-grown heat would rely on a high-pressure system sitting over us which builds and builds the temperatures.
  14. h2005__uk__
    Now that we're into July, how is this summer comparing to previous summers in terms of what's going on in Europe, the amount of heat there to 'tap' into, the possibility of us tapping into it, etc.? I only really started following models less than a year ago which is why I'm asking.
  15. h2005__uk__
    I've a few questions about summer heat which I haven't been able to find the answers to elsewhere. Hopefully someone may be able to answer! - What's the average number of days per summer that 30C is reached in East Anglia or the SE? - Is it possible to reach such temperatures without a plume (i.e. can they be 'home grown')? - Does any model have a good track record of forecasting plumes and the such-like ahead of the reliable timeframe? Thank you
  16. h2005__uk__
    00z GFS has backed down on heat on the 11th/12th July... for now at least! The same run has undercooked temps for this morning though - forecast max of 14C in the SE by 9am, but it was already 18C in London and 17C in Essex at 8am.
  17. h2005__uk__
    Lots of cloud and a few showers here earlier. That changed at 3pm when the sun came out and the temperature shot up from 24C to 26.3C at Writtle at 4pm (and I'm recording 28C on my station at the moment). It's very noticeable how much difference the sun makes at this time of year and I assume is why max temps are difficult to predict, hence why today has exceeded the forecast 24C but yesterday didn't reach the forecast 33C here (due to cloud).
  18. h2005__uk__
    That's weird. I wonder what chart weatheronline is showing then as it's definitely the 6z it's showing (so it says). EDIT: Just realised the bottom right hand corner of the chart says "Wed 18 + 240" so it's yesterday's 18z run even though it says today's 6z at the top! That's rather misleading and something to watch out for on that site.
  19. h2005__uk__
    Ohh, I didn't realise weatheronline was first out of the block. Is that usually the case?
  20. h2005__uk__
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmax&HH=228&ZOOM=1&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&RES=0
  21. h2005__uk__
    This has been downgraded to the mid-high 20s for much of England on the 6z GFS. It's been chopping and changing between mid-high 20s and low 30s over the last few days though so there's probably more to come before anything can be nailed down.
  22. h2005__uk__
    Temperatures are already in the low 20s and rising quite quickly in Essex - a cloudless day would probably see them touching 30C by the afternoon, but I think that'll get thwarted judging by the radar!
  23. h2005__uk__
    GFS 18z is showing 29 - 31C in the SE on Saturday!
  24. h2005__uk__
    Yes, the 12z GFS for Saturday is slightly cooler than the 6z, but I notice that parts of East Anglia reaching 30/31C even on the 12z. Could well be that Saturday is another 30+ day for some. Certainly an interesting period of model watching!
  25. h2005__uk__
    Bit disappointing here in mid-Essex in terms of temperatures compared to other parts of the south-east. It hit 31C in Writtle at lunchtime, but a large amount of cloud pushed the temps back down and they never really recovered. Now there's total cloud cover - much more than forecast.
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